May 7, 2024

Gold and Silver News & Headlines – February 2012

Gold and silver continue their strong 2012 advance with relatively sparse mainstream press headlines.  Gold is now only $114 per ounce below the all time high of $1,895 reached on September 6, 2011 and silver looks more and more like it is getting ready to challenge the $50 range last seen in mid 2011.

Based on the closing London Fix Price, gold has advanced from $1,598.00 at the beginning of the year to today’s closing price of  $1,781.00, for a gain of 11.5% or $183 per ounce.  Silver’s advance has been even more dramatic.  Since the start of the year, silver has risen 23.7% to $35.60 per ounce, a gain of $6.82 per ounce.

Here are some recent links to excellent gold and silver related stories and blog posts:

One-Half Ounce Proof Gold Eagle Sold Out, Some Silver Products Suspended

The one-half ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagles have sold out at the U.S. Mint.  The one ounce Proof Gold Eagle had previously sold out last October.  In addition, some silver numismatic product sales have been suspended pending pricing updates due to the rapid rise in silver prices.

The Financial System Is Sick – Are Precious Metals The Cure?

Over thousands of years, gold and silver are the only currencies that have not failed and have protected wealth.  With rampant worldwide money printing, the wealth of nations is being stolen through endless money printing.  Expect the severely undervalued gold stocks to rally strongly.

Gold Market of the 1970s Was A Dress Rehearsal

Jim Sinclair sees QE to infinity and persuasively argues that the only tool left in the toolbox is money printing which is required to prevent a global implosion from towering levels of debt.

Gold Should Be $2,100 – $2,200 Right Now

Great interview with Jim Puplava who discusses central bank money printing, financial repression, economic issues and why gold is undervalued by at least 22%.

Why The U.S. Government Confiscated Gold in 1933 – Can It Happen Again?

The U.S. government is already seizing the wealth of millions of Americans through financial repression.  Through executive order U.S. citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933 through 1974.  Julian Phillips examines the reasons why this occurred and wonders if  it could happen again?

Silver Price Rises Twice As Fast As Gold As The Eurozone Floods With Money

Silver has been on a tear this year, up 24% compared to an increase of 12% for gold.  How should investors react to position themselves  if gold soars over $2,000 and silver spikes to over $50?

Ex-Fed Governor Warsh Again Confirms Gold Price Suppression

GATA highlights the role of governments in financial repression and suppression of gold prices.  Ex Fed Governor Kevin Warsh notes the growing call in Europe and the U.S. to devalue debts through money printing and higher inflation.  Warsh says that “Such an inflation tax would transfer wealth from those who have lent money, in good faith, to the borrowers.  Inflation is a blunt and inappropriate instrument for assigning winners and losers from profligate fiscal policy or excessive borrowing by private individuals and firms.”

If Gold Could Talk

Terrific article on the enduring characteristics of gold, why gold is money and how much gold should an investor own?  Be prepared to get your checkbook out after reading this article.  Whatever amount of gold you currently own, it’s not enough!

Gold Remains The Best Alternative To Paper Money

Two examples of the frustrations that some gold investors have gone through in the past year offers a valuable lesson to long term gold investors.

  1. During 2011, despite being heavily invested in gold, John Paulson’s Gold Fund wound up losing 11% of its value.  This despite the fact that gold bullion gained $142.50 during 2011, closing the year at $1,531.00, up 10.2% (see How Did An Investment Pro Lose Money Investing in Gold?).
  2. Investors in the $4.4 billion Vanguard Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX) which holds almost all of its assets in a diversified portfolio of precious metal mining stocks dropped by a stunning 27.4% last year, declining from $26.71 on January 3rd to $19.39 on December 30, 2011.

In both of the above cases, the declines in value were primarily due to the large under performance of gold stocks to gold bullion during 2011.  Nonetheless, nothing stings more than picking the right asset class only to somehow wind up losing.  An investor bullish on gold and investing completely in gold stocks would have had a disastrous year.  An investor with a large position in gold, diversified across gold mining stocks, gold bullion and gold ETFs would have performed substantially better.

Although gold stocks can often outperform gold bullion, many investors may lack the expertise to pick the best gold stock or gold mutual fund.  The best strategy for most small gold investors is to buy physical gold bullion at regular intervals with a commitment to a long term holding period.  Over the years, I have seen far too many uninformed investors who want a position in gold wind up trading speculative junior gold stocks, often times resulting in large losses.  Gold mining stock prices can be volatile and even when an investor selects quality gold stocks, the temptation to liquidate a position during  price weakness often results in losses.

The gold investor who has purchased gold bullion consistently over the past decade has been amply rewarded and there is no reason to expect this trend to change.

Meanwhile, John Paulson remains committed to gold and recently told Bloomberg News that he personally owns over half of the $1.2 billion Gold Fund he manages.

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager seeking to rebound from record losses in 2011, told investors his Gold Fund will outperform his other strategies over five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The billionaire, at a meeting yesterday at the Metropolitan Club in New York, said the metal is the best hedge against currency debasement as countries inject money into their economies, said the person, who attended the event and asked not to be named because the information is private. Paulson also cited gold as a hedge against the euro currency, as a breakup may occur, and an eventual increase in inflation.

The manager told clients his own money comprises 55 percent of the Gold Fund’s $1.2 billion in assets, the person said. The fund, which can buy derivatives and other gold-related securities, declined 11 percent last year after the metal slumped 14 percent in the final four months.

Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may continue to affect bullion in the near term, Paulson, whose firm manages $23 billion, said this month in a year-end letter to investors. The metal serves as the best long-term alternative to paper currencies, he said.

“We remain excited about the outlook for the Paulson Gold Funds over the next few years,” he said in the letter. “We would argue that the potential upside in gold outweighs the potential downside.”

In addition to his Gold Fund, Paulson also holds a large position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF, valued at $2.9 billion.  As of February 24, 2011, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 41.3 million ounces of gold valued at $73.4 billion.

An Undervalued Gold Stock That Could Double In Price

Leveraged earnings gains from rising gold prices have historically resulted in gold stocks outperforming gold bullion.   From 2000 to the highs of 2008, the PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) rose by 345% compared to a 252% increase in the price of gold.

Over the past two years, the out performance of gold stocks has come to a dead halt despite the surge in gold prices.  From $1,121.50 in January of 2010, gold has advanced to the current price of $1,781.10 for a gain of $659.60 per ounce or 58.8% while gold stocks have basically flat lined as represented by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

The divergence between gold bullion and gold stocks has resulted in a markdown of world class gold producers, resulting in the best buying opportunity since the 2008 sell off.  John Hathaway, who runs the Tocqueville Gold Fund and has the best track record in the industry recently said this in his Investment Update.

Gold and gold stocks appear to be bottoming in the wake of a four month correction which began in mid -August when the metal peaked at $1900/oz. Bearish sentiment is at extremes not seen in many years. This and a number of other indicators, such as stocks that have been hit by negative sentiment, the downtrend in gold prices since August, and tax loss selling, support our view that a rally lies ahead. This very bullish market set-up, in our opinion, mirrors the extraordinary investment opportunity of the despondent year end in 2007. Even though gold prices have been declining for several months, they finished the year with substantial gains. This suggests that the value represented by gold mining equities held in our portfolio could be extraordinary.

GDX - couresy yahoo.com

Gold price - courtesy kitco.com

Will the glaring price disparity between gold and gold stocks continue?  I have argued in a previous post (see Gold Stocks are Positioned For An Explosive Move Up) that major gold producers with large proven gold reserves are on the bargain table.  The steeply discounted value of gold stocks will ultimately result in gold stock prices surging as the fundamentals of gold stocks are recognized by investors.

The gold stocks most likely to outperform are the ones with the strongest current relative price strength.  One gold stock that fits this criteria and has outperformed the gold stock indexes is Yamana Gold (AUY), a Canadian gold producer.

AUY OUTPERFORMS - courtesy yahoo.com

Yamana has producing, development stage and exploration properties in Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Brazil.  The Company recently announced record fourth and year end results for 2011.  Highlights of Yamana’s performance for 2011 are shown below.

  • Gold production increased by 5% to 916,284 ounces
  • Silver production reached 9.3 million ounces
  • Revenues increased by 29% to $2.2 billion
  • Cash margin increased by 28% to $1,517 per ounce
  • Earning increased by 59% to $713 million equivalent to $0.96 per share
  • Cash flow increased by 48% to $1.3 billion
  • The annual dividend was increased to $0.20 per share
  • The Company’s net earnings were equivalent to $497 per ounce with an average realized gold price per ounce of $1,670.
  • Yamana has industry low cash costs and operates in stable areas
  • Yamana management forecasts that annual sustainable gold production will increase by over 60% to 1.75 million ounces by 2014

Gold prices have surged thus far in 2012 and there is every reason to believe that gold will end the year far higher than its current price (see Fed Lays Groundwork For Price Explosion in Gold and also Why There Is No Upside Limit for Gold and Silver Prices).

The stage is set for an explosive move upwards in Yamana’s stock price based on the confluence of higher gold prices, soaring profits and increased gold production.   Based on the fundamentals, Yamana’s stock is dirt cheap.  The stock is on the verge of breaking out to a new all time high and could easily double in price during 2012.

AUY - COURTESY YAHOO.COM

Have Gold Investors Become Too Bullish? Ask The Same Question At $5,000

Have too many investors gotten overly bullish on gold?

After a stunning advance of almost $200 per ounce from last year’s closing price, some are asking if gold has gotten ahead of itself.  After advancing almost nonstop since the beginning of the year, gold sold off sharply, dropping by $32.50 to close in New York trading at $1725.90.

Analyst Mark Hulbert, who tracks investor sentiment as reported in the Hulbert Gold Newsletter, reports that bullish sentiment on gold has become extreme.  At the end of 2011, short term gold timers were completely out of the gold market.  The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) registered 0.3% on December 29th compared to 51% today.  Mr. Hulbert sees the rapid return to bullishness by gold investors as a worrisome signal and notes that the HGNSI never got as high as it is today when gold previously traded at current price levels.

Mr. Hulbert notes that his indicator can be early as was the case last year.  In early December Hulbert noted that bearish sentiment was reaching extreme levels but gold subsequently plunged from $1,752 on December 1st to $1,574.50 on December 30th.

One indicator of gold sentiment that does not seem to be signaling an imminent sharp correction in gold is the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (Gold VIX) which measures gold volatility based on SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) options trading.  As bearish put positions on the GLD increase, the VIX rises as it did last August prior to a sharp correction in the price of gold.  After peaking at 40 last year, the VIX is currently at 22.

CBOE Gold VIX (GVZ) - courtesy cboe.com

 

Could the price of gold correct in the short term? Yes.  Should long term investors who hold gold as a safe haven against a government that has an official policy of debasing the currency be worried?  No.

A short term correction is nothing more than a buying opportunity for long term investors.  Why would one care if gold corrects to $1,600 on its way to $5,000?  Here are a few items for consideration by those worried about a “correction” in the price of gold.

The U.S. has accumulated debt obligations and promises that are mathematically impossible to repay.  Neither future economic growth nor tax increases will be sufficient for the government to meet its obligations without debasing the value of the dollar.  The government is spending $1.60 for every $1.00 collected in revenues, half of all families receive some type of government payment and half of all wage earners pay no taxes.

The government’s “solution” for too much debt remains the same – more debt.  Here’s what Treasury Secretary Geithner said when he asked Congress to raise the debt limit in August 2009 when government debt totaled “only” $12.1 trillion.

“Congress has never failed to raise the debt limit when necessary. Because members of both parties have long recognized the need to keep politics away from this issue, these actions have traditionally received bipartisan support. This is clearly a moment in our history that calls for continuation of that tradition.”

As the debt burden approaches the day of reckoning, the proportion of the population actually working continues to decline.

Investors late to the party attempting to diversity into gold may find that it’s too late – gold may not be available at any price.

Gregor Macdonald notes that global gold production over the last decade has been below the average of the past 110 years.  Normally, higher prices will  result in higher supplies as producers rush to capitalize on higher prices.  Despite the fact that the price of gold has increased every year for the past decade, gold production has barely increased – there is simply not that much gold left which hasn’t already been mined.

 

Global gold production - courtesy gregor.us

A looming price correction in gold?  Bring it on!

There’s No Reason Gold Stocks Should Be So Cheap – Newmont Mining On The Bargain Rack

Over the past five years, gold bullion has dramatically outperformed the average gold stock.  Reasons why bullion has outperformed gold stocks include an investor preference for physical gold and the inability of gold miners to produce earnings gains commensurate with the increase in the price of gold.

The end result of investor aversion to gold stocks has resulted in many quality gold stocks, such as Newmont Mining (NEM), winding up on the bargain rack.  Newmont Mining is one of the world’s largest gold producers that has positioned itself for profitable growth after restructuring its operations.  Newmont Mining management is forecasting a 35% increase in gold production to 7 million ounces annually over the next six years.

Revenue growth at Newmont has grown by 10% annually over the past 10 years.  Earnings per share increased from $.45 per share in 2002 to $4.68 per share in 2010.  For the year ending December 31, 2010, gross margins hit a record 61%, cash holdings increased to $4.1 billion and revenues climbed by 23% to $9.5 billion.  Newmont Mining has a dividend yield of 2.3% with a very low payout ratio of 18% and is committed to increasing the dividend in line with the increase in the price of gold.  Newmont’s total proven and probably gold reserves of 93.5 million ounces are valued at only $285 per share.

Newmont Mining - courtesy yahoo finance

 

In this week’s Barron’s Roundtable, analyst Fred Hickey talks about Newmont Mining and why he is bullish on gold.

Hickey: Newmont Mining [NEM], which I recommended last year, outperformed. [The stock rose 5.5% through Dec. 30.] The driver is gross margin expansion. Gold prices are up by a factor of six through this bull market, yet costs have roughly doubled. The company has had tremendous cash flow, leading to dividend increases. Newmont has tied its dividend policy to the gold price. If the price rises, you are guaranteed more dividends. The money won’t be wasted on bad acquisitions. In 2008 Newmont earned under $2 a share. It could earn $4.82 for 2011, and $5.96 in 2012. There’s no reason these stocks should be so cheap.

As Felix has said, owning physical gold is important. In addition, you can own gold through exchange-traded funds, such as the GLD [ SPDR Gold Shares]. They are audited. The U.S. government’s gold holdings haven’t been independently audited in decades. The GLD charges fees of 0.40% of assets. The IAU, or iShares Gold Trust, charges only 0.25% of assets. It trades for about a hundredth of the price of gold, so it is selling for $15.76 a share. It has been around since 2005 and has $9 billion in assets and 171 tons of gold. It stores its gold in vaults around the world. Last year I recommended stocks. This year I like the GDX, or Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It gives you diversification with 31 names, including a few silver stocks. Barrick Gold [ABX], Newmont and Goldcorp [GG] account for 41% of assets. At some point gold stocks will outperform bullion.

Newmont is currently selling at a steep discount to the underlying value of its gold reserves.  As the price of gold continues to rise, the stock will eventually reflect the fundamentals and could easily double from current levels.

The Gold Bubble Myth – Investors Remain Underinvested In Gold

The chronic myth that gold is in a bubble continues to persist, perhaps driven by the fact that gold has risen for the past 11 years.

The mainstream press has float stories year after year that gold was dangerously overpriced and unsuitable for most investors.  This gold bubble mindset, promulgated by “analysts” who have never owned gold has succeeded in keeping the vast majority of investors out of the best performing asset class of the past decade.

Despite every effort by the Federal Reserve to debase the value of the U.S. dollar, an uninformed and gullible public seems content to hold paper dollars which continue to decline in purchasing power.   Worse yet, in an effort to forestall insolvency and reduce the value of debt obligations that are mathematically impossible to repay, the Fed has explicitly adopted a dollar debasement policy.

While the smart money has been moving into gold, the vast majority of investors are under invested in precious metals.  The relatively low demand for gold can be seen from the third quarter gold demand and supply statistics from the World Gold Council.

Total gold demand has remained relatively stable for the past four years at approximately 4,000 tonnes.  Various categories of gold demand such as bar and coin and ETF rose while jewellery demand actually dropped and technology demand remained relatively unchanged.  Total global gold demand of 4,000 tonnes is valued at only about $230 billion.  By comparison the market value of Apple is $415 billion, the market value of IBM is $222 billion and the market value of Microsoft is $248 billion.

Meanwhile, monetary authorities world wide are printing money to prop up governments that have reached the limits of taxation and borrowing abilities.  This, along with the low level of demand for gold tells us that we are not even close to the ultimate highs that will be seen in the gold market.

More on this topic:

Gold Bull Market Could Last Another 20 Year With $12,000 Price Target

Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices

Sources and Demand For Gold

A nifty graphic detailing the sources and demand for gold can be seen below from Trustable Gold, which provides investors with information on gold investment opportunities.

 

Courtesy - trustablegold.com

Gold Soars As The Fed Explicitly Promises To Debase The U.S. Dollar

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke hit the panic button today by announcing a specific inflation target, vowing to keep rates at zero until at least 2014 and pledging to offer additional monetary stimulus. The Fed also noted, as it has in the past, that the economy still faces “significant downside risks”.

These actions by the Fed come nearly four years after the financial crisis began in 2008.  During that time, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet to almost $3 trillion, driven real interest rates to negative 1.2% and encouraged lending by flooding the banking system with reserves.  The Fed’s monetary easing was supplemented by trillions of dollars in U.S. deficit financed spending  aimed at restoring economic growth and gluing back together the shattered real estate bubble.

Despite these unprecedented and controversial actions, the economy refuses to rebound.  Collapsing home prices, declining real incomes and an “official” unemployment rate of 8.5% are deflationary and this is what has panicked Bernanke more than anything else.  Deflation is the mortal enemy of a credit fueled, debt burdened economy.  Today’s actions by the Fed show that Bernanke will do whatever is necessary to prevent a deflationary collapse.  Of course, the markets already knew this.

GOLD 01/25/2012 17:15 1710.80 1711.80 +44.40 +2.66% 1648.20 1714.00
SILVER 01/25/2012 17:15 33.27 33.37 +1.22 +3.81% 31.46 33.53

The real reason behind the explosive move up in gold and silver was the historic change in Fed policy with the announcement of an explicitly targeted inflation rate of 2%.   Although the Federal Reserve has been debasing the value of the currency ever since its creation, for the first time ever, currency debasement and financial repression has now become an officially stated policy goal.

 

Gold Explodes - courtesy kitco.com

 

The concept of explicit inflation targeting is dangerous and reckless, which is why it has never been done before.  If the Fed decides that we need 2% inflation today, does the rate go higher later?  How will the Fed know exactly when and exactly how to stop creating inflation?  This is the same Fed run by the same Ben Bernanke who could not identify the biggest credit fueled real estate bubble in history.

Will debt-deleveraging overpower the Fed’s ability to create inflation?   Bloomberg’s Michael Kinsley persuasively tells us, Please Remain Worried About Rising Inflation.

About two years ago I wrote an article saying that despite the lack of evidence, and despite the near-universal belief among economists that it was not a problem, I was worried about inflation. My reason was that I couldn’t see how the government could pay off the massive debt it was running up except by inflating at least part of it away.

For this, I was widely ridiculed, and I’d like to take this opportunity to claim vindication. That is, I’d like to — but I can’t. Inflation (CPI) has been creeping up the past couple of years – – from less than 2 percent to more than 3 percent — but that’s still pretty low. Nevertheless, I double down: Barring a miracle, there will be a fierce storm of inflation sometime in the next few years and it will wipe out a big chunk of the national debt, along with the debts of individual citizens, and the savings of others.

One reason I say this is that the arguments on the other side have shifted. It used to be, “It’s not gonna happen — so don’t worry about it.” Now it’s, “You know, a moderate dose of inflation would be no bad thing. So don’t worry about it.” Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University, is the leading spokesman for this view. He wrote in August that he would like “a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4 percent to 6 percent for several years.” Five years of 5 percent inflation would reduce the value of debts by 27 percent —

It has been four years now, and things are starting to look up a bit. Time to raise taxes or cut spending? Time to stop borrowing? No, not yet (says Krugman). So, when? After eight years? Twelve? Soon you’ll be bumping into the next recession. Or do the annual deficit and the national debt simply not matter? If that’s the case, why do we pay taxes at all?

Although Kinsley cites the example of how “moderate”  inflation of 5% for 5 years would reduce the value of debt by 27%, the obvious corollary would be a decline in the value of the dollar by the same amount.  The U.S. dollar can no longer even pretend to be a store of value, given the new Fed policy of targeted inflation.

The old adage “don’t fight the Fed” is true – and the Fed has just given an all out buy signal on gold.

Ron Paul Calls Central Bank Intervention A “Form of World Wide Quantitative Easing”

Central banks, spear headed by the U.S. Federal Reserve, launched a massive joint effort to provide liquidity to a European banking system that was teetering on the verge of collapse.

The six central banks involved in the emergency lending program were the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank.  The central bank actions provided European banks with cheap access to  funding through U.S. dollar swap lines.  Under dollar swaps, the U.S. Federal Reserve supplies dollars to foreign central banks which in turn lend the dollars to banks that need U.S. dollars to meet funding needs denominated in U.S. dollars.

In a joint statement, the six central banks said “The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.”  As one European bank after another appeared to be on the verge of collapse, the calls for central bank intervention to “save the world” had become deafening.  Today, the central banks obliged, effectively endorsing the theory that more debt is the solution to the debt crisis.

In an early day interview on CNBC, Ron Paul gave his take on the massive central bank intervention, calling it “a form of worldwide quantitative easing.”

Ron Paul also noted that the central bank actions “penalize the American people” and that the Federal Reserve actions will simply result in “more debt and more inflation.”

Ron Paul said the Fed is doing the same thing that it has done for the past 40 years.  “Spending excessively, running up debt, printing up money, and manipulating interest rates.  We’re up against the wall now, it doesn’t work anymore. Lowering interest rates is essentially impossible.   That’s what they’re desperately trying to do today.  But, you know, when our interest rates to the banks are down to zero, what are they going to do next?  Used to be that Congress would just spend more money and that would help.  How can they spend more money when there’s no more money in the Treasury?”

The answer to Ron Paul’s last question is obvious and should deeply concern every American.  Funding needs of the Treasury will continue to be supplied by the Federal Reserve with printed money and the U.S. currency will continue to lose value.  The rising price of gold has reflected the systematic destruction of our currency.  Based on the predictable response of central banks worldwide to print their way out of the debt disaster, there is effectively no upside limit to the price of gold.

Fed Lays Groundwork For Price Explosion In Gold

Gold hit another all time high of $1,779.10 before pulling back to close at $1745.10, up $26.90.  Gold has advanced strongly over the past year as the Federal Reserve engaged in quantitative easing and extremely loose monetary policy.  Over the past 30 days gold has gained $198 and over the past year, a stunning $548.70 per ounce.

At the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, the Fed announced that it would maintain its zero interest rate policy through the middle of 2013.   The Fed does not normally make commitments that limit future policy flexibility and three of the seven members of the FOMC  voted against the pledge to maintain zero interest rates.

The Fed has held interest rates at zero for 32 months now with little to show for it as debt burdened consumers continue to reduce spending.  With inflation running at 5 to 10% (depending on whose stats you believe), real interest rates are negative and savers are seeing the purchasing power of their dollars destroyed by Fed policies.

The FOMC also said that they expect “a somewhat slower pace of recovery over the coming quarters” and that future action might be taken to “promote stronger economic recovery.”  Since the Fed has already exhausted all normal policy tools, the FOMC seems to be positioning itself for another round of quantitative easing.  Some analysts speculate that the Fed will discuss further easing measures later this month at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where QE2 was launched.

Further fiscal stimulus seems improbable given the restrictions put on future spending by Congress as part of the debt limit agreement.  In a sign of how desperate the financial condition of the United States has become, all eyes are now turned towards the Fed.

Since zero interest rates and two rounds of money printing have done little to turn around the US economy, the expectation is that the Fed will need to do more of what failured before, except on a grander scale.  I expect that as the economy continues to weaken, the Fed will announce a “shock and awe” campaign of massive money printing accompanied by an explicit statement that they are committed to higher inflation.

Federal Reserve policies have been the primary factor pushing the price of gold higher.  The inevitable announcement of further quantitative easing will be trigger that pushes gold prices thousands of dollars higher.

Consider the statement of the former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan who on a “Meet the Press” interview arrogantly proclaimed that the United States could never default because “The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.”  This is what the United States has come to under the easy money policies of the Federal Reserve and a government that believes prosperity can be created by oceans of debt.  Is it any wonder that the currency is collapsing and the purchasing power of the dollar declining precipitously?

Meanwhile, Kenneth Rogoff (of This Time It’s Different fame) who attended Harvard with Bernanke, tells Bloomberg that the Fed should explicitly set a high inflation target and engage in massive quantitative easing.

Federal Reserve policy makers are likely to embark on a third round of large-scale asset purchases, moving “more decisively” to secure the U.S. recovery, said Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff.

“They certainly should do something right away,” said Rogoff, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist who attended graduate school with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

“Out-of-the-box policies are called for, especially much more aggressive monetary policy, however unpopular that may be,” said Rogoff, 58, a former Fed economist who like Bernanke earned a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Fed is “going to move more decisively,” Rogoff said.

Rogoff recommended the Fed say in “very clear statements” that it’s trying to create “moderate inflation.” “In the classic classroom QE, it’s open-ended,” Rogoff said. “You say, ‘I’m trying to create inflation of, let’s say 2 or 3 percent, and I’m going to do whatever it takes.’”

The extreme policy measures recommended by Greenspan and Rogoff prove that the US has already passed the tipping point and has only one policy option left.  If the Fed does not print like crazy, the whole rotten edifice of towering debts will collapse, plunging the country into a deflationary collapse.

Gold will have price corrections as it continues to move upward but the ultimate price will be many thousands of dollars higher than today.  Gold investors should continue to accumulate positions, especially on price weakness and enjoy the unfolding of one of the greatest bull markets in history.

Gold And Silver Gain On Week – Time Tested Indicator Says Gold Stocks Are Cheap

After last week’s major sell off in precious metals, gold and silver prices gained on the week while platinum and palladium registered small declines.   As measured by the closing London Fix Price, gold gained $19.25 on the week and silver gained $2.00.

As is typical after a major pullback, silver prices were volatile.  Silver’s sharp price increase this year had attracted many day traders and leveraged speculators who were forced to sell as silver prices declined, in large part due to the rapid series of margin increases by the COMEX on silver futures traders.

This week’s volatility in silver prices can be seen using the SLV as a silver proxy.  After almost hitting $38 on Tuesday, the SLV plunged to $32 in early Thursday trading before recovering to the $34 level in late Friday trading.

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The forced liquidation of silver positions by weaker leveraged hands has provided long term investors with a buying opportunity according to the experts at Dillon Gage Metals, a major precious metals dealer.  According to Terry Hanlon, President of Dillon Gage, “This year, silver has had its biggest run in the shortest period of time in recent memory.  Profit-taking corrections are to be expected when markets rally.  This recent price correction doesn’t change the basic fundamentals, which include good demand for silver to make coins in a number of countries.”

Hanlon also noted that the recent strong dollar rally in early May lead to a broad based commodities sell off which extended to precious metals.  The increased margin deposits required by the COMEX which increased from $4,250 a year ago to $16,200 per contract was also an obvious contributor to weakness in silver prices.  Hanlon expects silver prices to remain range bound in the short term saying that “I look for investors and money managers to take a brief breather on the sidelines before getting back into the silver market on the buy side.”

No one can say exactly where silver prices will bottom out before heading higher but Dillon Gage sees “support at the $32 an ounce level”.  Silver’s 200 day moving average is currently in the $28 range which should provide solid technical support.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,505.75 +19.25 (+1.29%)
Silver $36.20 +2.00(+5.85%)
Platinum $1,774.00 -15.00 (-0.84%)
Palladium $718.00 -3.00 (-0.42%)

It is interesting that amidst a broad based commodities sell off and a major price pullback in silver, gold’s relative performance has been very strong and indicative of fundamental demand.  The recent news that numerous countries are increasing their stockpiles of gold bullion provides further proof that both individual investors and governments are seeking to preserve their wealth by diversifying out of paper currencies.

For investors who prefer to invest in gold mining companies, the K-Ratio, a time tested buy/sell indicator currently has very bullish readings.   The K-Ratio is computed by dividing Barron’s Gold Mining Index by the current Handy and Harmon gold price and reflects the relative value of gold stocks compared to gold bullion.   A reading below 1.2o tells us that gold stocks are cheap compared to gold bullion.  The K-Ratio is currently at .93 indicating that gold stocks are currently a better relative bargain than gold bullion.