May 6, 2024

Precious Metals Prices Stumble In Wild Trading Week

Commodity and precious metal prices tumbled this week, with gold and silver prices snapping a streak of four consecutive weekly increases. Following the recent run up in prices, there had been some anticipation of a correction. In addition, there were concerns that the Fed’s announcement of the end of QE2 would result in an end to the flood of cheap money which has fueled the rise of commodities.

In the precious metals group, silver was the biggest loser with a drop of almost 30% from last Thursday’s closing London PM Fix Price.  (The London markets were closed on Friday, April 28th.)  The losses in silver far outpaced the declines in other precious metals and many place the blame squarely on the rapid fire multiple margin increases by the COMEX for trading silver futures (See How The COMEX Crashed The Silver Market).

Gold, platinum and palladium also had a tough week with respective price declines of 3.19%, 2.51% and 7.21%.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,486.50 -49.00 (-3.19%)
Silver $34.20 -14.50(-29.77%)
Platinum $1,789.00 -46.00 (-2.51%)
Palladium $721.00 -56.00 (-7.21%)

Precious metals have had previous serious declines without affecting the long term upward move in prices (see Measuring Declines From The High For Gold and Silver).  Overextended markets will correct but the fundamental forces pushing precious metal prices higher have not changed.  While dollars and other paper currencies can be produced in infinite quantity, the supply of gold, silver and commodities are finite.

Despite the Fed’s promise to stop printing money and its pledge of supporting a “strong dollar”, the dollar has had only a feeble recovery and is close to its all time lows.  The markets clearly have no confidence in Chairman Bernanke’s words and the weak dollar proves it.  Every bull market experiences temporary pullbacks and the precious metals are no exception.  Long term investors should view the latest price consolidation as another potential opportunity to increase positions.

Measuring Declines from the High for Gold and Silver Prices

The prices of gold and silver had each risen to fresh all time highs, just before the severe declines experienced over the past few days.

On April 25, 2011, the price of silver touched an intraday high of $49.82 per ounce. This narrowly eclipsed the previous all time high of $49.45 reached in 1980. Silver’s recent price of $34.64 represents a decline of $15.18 or 30.47%.

After breaking above the $1,450 per ounce level in early April, the price of gold had achieved a string of new all time highs. This culminated with the most recent high of $1,577.40 per ounce reached on May 2, 2011. The recent gold price of $1,473.60 per ounce represents a decline of $103.80 or 6.58%.

The severity of the decline for silver has drastically altered the Gold Silver Ratio. This ratio measures the number of ounces of silver necessary to purchase one ounce of gold. At their respective highs, the ratio would have been 31.65. Recent prices put the ratio at 42.54.

Gold

Recent High: $1,577.40 (May 2, 2011)
Recent Price: $1,473.60 (May 5, 2011)
Decline: -$103.80 (-6.58%)

Silver

Recent High: $49.82 (April 25, 2011)
Recent Price: $34.64 (May 5, 2011)
Decline: -$15.18 (-30.47%)

Gold and silver’s stellar performance over the past several years has been interrupted by other declines, some of them even more drastic. From intermediary peaks reached in March 2008, gold and silver fell sharply as the financial world melted down later that year. Gold fell from $1,011.25 to $712.50 per ounce, losing 29.54%. Silver fell from $20.92 per ounce to $8.88, for a loss of 57.55%.

Despite the recent carnage, both gold and silver hold onto gains for the year to date. From the price levels on December 31, 2010, gold is up $63.35 per ounce or 4.49% and silver is up $4.01 per ounce of 13.09%.

As Gold Hits Record Highs, Perth Mint Finds Success in Smaller Sized Coins

As the price of gold continues to climb, the cost of purchasing a one ounce gold bullion coin is approaching $1,600.  In order to provide the opportunity to own gold within a more reasonable price range, innovative mints have begun offering smaller sized gold coins.   In April 2010, the Perth Mint of Australia introduced a half gram 99.99% pure gold coin named the Mini Roo.

Struck with a fineness of .9999, each Mini Roo contains 0.016 troy ounces of gold. The coins have a diameter of 11.60 mm and thickness of 0.70 mm. By comparison, the one ounce Australian Gold Kangaroo has a diameter of 32.60 mm and thickness of 2.80 mm. The half gram Mini Roo and 1 oz. Gold Kangaroo are shown side by side in the image below.

According to the Perth Mint’s website, the Mini Roo is currently priced at $54.18. A major precious metals dealer’s website currently quotes the price of a single one ounce 2011 Gold Kangaroo at $1,668.23.

Alexandra Lucchesi of the Perth Mint Public Relations Department was kind enough to some insights on the objectives and sales levels of the diminutive gold coins.

Gold and Silver Blog:  Can you provide us with any indication of the sales levels of the Mini Roo half gram gold coin and how it compares to the sale of one ounce coins?

Alexandra:  To compare sales of the Mini Roo and 1oz gold bullion coins would not be a valid comparison.  The issues vary considerably in weight and price, and therefore, do not encompass the interest of the same individual and institutional investors.  Furthermore, the Mini Roo is targeted more toward collectors and gift buyers, whereas the gold coins of the Australian Kangaroo and Lunar series are directed more toward investors.

Gold and Silver Blog:  Has the half gram gold coin met sales expectations and have sales increased as the price of gold has climbed?

Alexandra:  The release of the Mini Roo has met our objectives at both wholesale and retail levels, with sales exceeding more than 15,000 2010-dated coins to date since being released in April last year.  With the 2011 coin only just released a fortnight ago [April 5, 2011], we can not yet estimate sales for the remainder of the year, although, with periodic prompted promotion, we are also anticipating favourable sales of this issue.

Gold and Silver Blog:  Will the Mini Roo become a regular annual issue?

Alex:  A Mini Roo was first introduced to the market in April 2010.  Complementing the world renowned Australian Kangaroo gold bullion coin series, the Mini Roo is expected to be released each year and will continue to portray the identical design as, or a simplified version of, the iconic Australian Kangaroo annual issues.

Gold and Silver Blog:  I would suspect that the much lower cost of the Mini Roo allows greater participation by investors and collectors as well as placing the Mini Roo within the affordable gift category.  Was the higher price of gold the determining factor in deciding to produce the half gram coin?  Have the offerings of smaller sized gold coins resulted in an increased number of new customers?

Alexandra:  That is correct.  The Perth Mint introduced the Mini Roo to encourage a broader audience to start investing in, or collecting, precious metal coin products.  In addition, the smaller coin was perfect to capture the interest of those who, traditionally, were unable to afford the classic Australian Kangaroo bullion coin sizes.  The timing for the initiative was also enhanced by the rising price of gold.  The lower price point of the button-sized Mini Roo does give individual precious metal investors, coin collectors and gift buyers the opportunity to purchase a pure gold coin at an affordable price featuring a similar design as its traditional counterpart.


The Perth Mint Australia

Precious Metals Soar – Thank You Ben Bernanke

As predicted on Monday, the Federal Reserve policy meeting and subsequent press conference by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had the potential to cause an explosive move up in the precious metal markets. (see Federal Reserve May Cause Stampede Into Gold and Silver This Week)

At the conclusion of the Bernanke press conference it became clear that the Fed would maintain its policies of cheap credit and debasement of the dollar.  Subsequent economic reports showed a slowing economy, rising food and energy prices and a slowdown in consumer spending.  This was all the markets needed to hear and precious metal prices exploded upwards on the week.

Silver reached an all time high of $49.75 on Monday before pulling back on Tuesday to $44.60 and then resuming its upward streak after the Bernanke press conference.  The closing London PM Fix Price for silver settled at $48.70 on Thursday.  The London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York spot trading silver ended the week at $48.00, up from last week’s close at  $46.26.

Precious Metals Prices
Thurs PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,535.50 +31.50 (+2.09%)
Silver $48.70 +2.44(+5.27%)
Platinum $1,835.00 +23.00 (+1.27%)
Palladium $777.00 +12.00 (+1.57%)

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold closed Thursday at $1,535.50.  London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York trading, gold ended the day at $1,566.70, soaring $29.90.   From last week’s London Fix Price close of $1,504.00, gold exploded upwards for a gain of $62.70.

As precious metal investors racked up huge gains on the week, many were probably thinking of sending a thank you note to Ben Bernanke.  The reality is different.  Most investors, no matter how bullish they may be on precious metals, are probably diversified and do not have a 100% portfolio allocation to gold and silver.

Investor gains on precious metals, while helping to preserve wealth, may have only partially offset the wealth destruction caused by zero interest rates and falling home prices.  The majority of Americans have the bulk of their wealth tied up in their personal residence and bank accounts and  have seen major declines in their home equity and close to a zero return on savings.  Fed policies are driving more and more investors into the precious metals markets and soaring prices are proof of that.

As noted the London markets were closed on Friday, April 29.  Precious metals prices soared on Friday in New York trading with gold ending at $1,566.70, silver at $48.00, platinum at $1878.00 and palladium at $777.00.

Gold At Record High As Silver Price Soars Towards $50 – Why The Rally Will Continue

As government spending spirals out of control and the Federal Reserve perpetuates a deliberate strategy of currency debasement, precious metals prices continued to soar. Gold, as measured by the London PM Fix Price, closed at $1504.00, up $27.25 on a shortened four day trading week .

Gold has gained $86 during April and $185 from its January low of $1,319.  The price acceleration in April comes in the aftermath of the government’s dismal failure to reduce deficit spending, even as S&P warned of a credit ratings downgrade for the U.S.  The great budget compromise reached by both parties was soon exposed as a shameful hoax by the Congressional Budget Office, which said that government spending would actually be higher after the “budget cuts” due to gimmicks.

As unsustainable government debt continues to balloon and the Fed continues to print money, the dollar is getting trashed. Governments worldwide are taking steps to protect themselves from the Fed’s explicit policy of dollar debasement and this means selling dollars.  The US dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the year.  Gold and silver are becoming the de facto reserve currency, as the flight from dollars intensifies.

US Dollar- COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has continued to confound the bears with another standout performance, gaining $3.65 or 8.57% on the week, after gaining $2.39 in the previous week. The closing price for silver as measured by the London PM Fix Price was $46.26.   Silver is rapidly closing in on its all time closing high of $48.70 hit in January 1980. The current price momentum in silver could easily push silver into new all time highs next week.

The huge rally in silver prices has some wondering if there will be a pullback soon.  Silver has gained $8.63 per ounce this month for a 22% gain.   Since the January low of $26.68, silver has gained a spectacular $19.58 per ounce for a huge gain of 73%.  The question is not one of if, but rather of when there will be a pullback – a routine event in every bull market.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,504.00 +27.25 (+1.84%)
Silver $46.26 +3.65(+8.57%)
Platinum $1,812.00 +25.00 (+1.40%)
Palladium $765.00 -7.00 (-0.91%)

But perhaps the bears will have to wait a while longer for the much anticipated pullback.  The volume in put options on the silver ETFs has seen numerous days of record volume, implying that some big players are betting on a significant decline in silver prices.  Does the record put buying on silver reflect speculators betting on a silver plunge or merely long time silver investors hedging long positions?  Either way, the implication is that the expectations for a silver pullback seems to be growing, but markets rarely accommodate investors’ perceptions of when a market is truly overbought – expect higher silver prices to shock the put buyers in silver.

Long term, any price pullback in silver should be looked at as a gift.  Financial players should never “fight the Fed”  and in this case, both Federal Reserve and Government policies guarantee higher precious metals prices (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).

Gold and Silver Reach Record Highs While Ron Paul Weighs In On Spending Fiasco

Silver was again the star performer in the precious metals group, hitting a new yearly high of $42.61.  For  the second week in a row, silver has added over $2 per ounce as measured by London PM Fix Price.  After soaring $2.59 in the previous week, silver capped another standout week with a gain of $2.39.

As a long time patient investor in silver, the moves over the past couple of years have been nothing less than amazing.  In the early 1990’s, a one ounce silver eagle  did not cost much more than $5 per coin.  In just the past two weeks we have witnessed silver increase in value by $4.98 per ounce.  Am I nervous about the rapid appreciation or worrying about a correction that the main stream press is calling for?

Not in the least – I am in silver for the long term and the policies of our government and central bank virtually guarantee much larger profits in the future (see Why Gold and Silver Have No Upside Limit, and Budget Fiasco Sends Wrong Message To Creditors and The Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver).

Any price corrections in the precious metals (and yes they will happen) should be viewed as opportunities to increase positions.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,476.75 +7.25 (+0.49%)
Silver $42.61 +2.39(+5.94%)
Platinum $1,787.00 -16.00 (-0.89%)
Palladium $772.00 -26.00 (-3.26%)

Gold, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, hit another all time high, closing at $1,476.75, up $7.25 on the week after running up $51.50 in the previous week. After breaking out of its base in the $1,450 range, gold could be getting ready for a substantial move upwards.

Paper money is all about confidence and, to anyone paying attention, last week’s “budget compromise” proved conclusively that our government is absolutely incapable of reducing spending.  After threatening us with a government shutdown and terrifying half of the citizens of this Nation with a potential cutoff of entitlements, both political parties proclaimed victory with an inconsequential  spending reduction of $38 billion.  Keep in mind that this year’s deficit is almost 37 times the proposed spending cuts.

The problem with the “compromise cuts”  is that both political parties lied to us and they were called out by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which said actual spending would be reduced by only a laughable $352 million.  Futhermore, the CBO noted that when “emergency spending” and the cost of multiple wars is factored in, actual spending would actually be $3 billion higher than the 2011 budget forecast.  It is not by accident that gold and silver have been soaring.

Ron Paul, one of the very few courageous and honest politicians that this country is lucky to have, said the following in a commentary about the latest events in Washington.

Last week, Congress and the administration refused to seriously consider the problem of government spending.  Despite the fear-mongering, a government shutdown would not have been as bad as claimed.

A compromise was struck at the last minute, but until Democrats agree to rein in entitlement spending, and Republicans back off the blank checks to the military industrial complex, it all amounts to political gamesmanship.

Unfortunately, the compromises always seem to be just the opposite.  Instead of the left agreeing to cut social spending and the right agreeing to cut military spending, the right agrees to more welfare and the left agrees to more warfare.  In spite of all the rhetoric, we will go deeper in debt, the Fed will print more money, and the value of the dollar will continue to plummet.  How long will it be before foreigners stop buying our debt, and hyperinflation arrives?  Throughout history, empires have always overextended themselves through conquests and wealth transfers leading to eventual collapse, from the Roman Empire to the Soviet Union.  We are headed in the same direction and it seems only the chaos of the collapse of the dollar will stop the spending spree.  Arguing over funding for Planned Parenthood and NPR, though important, only shows that leadership in Washington either won’t face reality, or don’t understand how serious the problem is.

Of course, an actual government collapse would create serious problems for many people who have come to depend on government payments for healthcare, retirement income, their children’s education, and even food and housing.  However, these so-called entitlement programs are unconstitutional to begin with and have engendered a culture of dependence on wealth transfer payments that is out of control. It concerns me greatly that instead of dealing seriously with our situation, so many in Washington would rather allow the chaos that will ensue when all of the dependent people are suddenly cut off.  Better to look reality squarely in the face and tell people the difficult truth that government is simply not capable of managing people’s lives from cradle to grave as was foolishly promised.  We face trillions in deficits with any of the budgets under consideration.  Keeping those promises is, sadly, just not one of our options in the long run.  Better to admit the nanny state is coming to an end and we are no longer working on “compromises” but a transition – to a sustainable way of life, one that respects the constitution, the rule of law and property rights.

In a sign that perhaps the economy may not be as strong going forward as some seem to think, industrial metals platinum and palladium both sold off on the week.   Platinum ended down $16 at $1,787 while palladium lost $26 to $772.

Smart Money Sees the Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver Prices

A broad sell off in commodity prices triggered by a Goldman Sachs prediction of a “substantial pullback” in oil prices had little impact on the strong uptrend in gold and silver prices. Based on the London closing PM Fix Price, gold ended Tuesday off only $19 or 1.3% from Friday’s all time close. Silver, meanwhile, the absolute star of the precious metals group, closed Tuesday at $40.44, up 22 cents from Friday’s 31 year closing high. After the recent huge run up in both gold and silver prices, the very modest price declines suggests that the bulls are on the right side of the trade.

Every bull market has corrections and precious metals will not be an exception. The point to remember is that the U.S. has already passed the point of no return on its inevitable journey to a debt crisis.  The mainstream press focuses on the looming battle in Washington over raising the nation’s legal debt limit past $14.2 trillion, yet there is little discussion of the U.S. Government’s total unfunded liabilities of $75 trillion based on open ended entitlement programs.   The U.S. is in a debt trap from which a painless escape is impossible.

While the majority of Americans don’t know or don’t care about the spiraling debt disaster facing the Nation, smart money is taking steps to survive and profit from the inevitable day of reckoning.

One of the largest bond investors in the world who has a superb investment track record proclaims that U.S. debt securities have “little value.” In recent remarks, Bill Gross of Pimco candidly states his view on how the U.S. debt crisis will soon end. Mr. Gross states that Pimco has sold all holdings of U.S. debt because “they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden. Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.”

The smart money sees the future.  One logical investment alternative to preserving wealth is in the timeless currencies of gold and silver that governments cannot devalue.

The recent sorry spectacle in Washington only affirms that elected leaders are incapable of preventing an eventual U.S. default (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).  After scaring half of the old ladies in the country that they wouldn’t get their next social security check, both political parties declared victory after “reducing spending” by $38 billion – a fraction of a percent of total government spending.  Even worse, the Washington Post reports that many of the “spending cuts” are accounting gimmicks and budget tricks that will not reduce overall spending.

The great “achievement” of Congress becomes even more pathetic after considering that the national debt has expanded by $3 trillion in the past two years and projected budgeted spending will add almost another $10 trillion in debt over the next 10 years.  These horrendous projections assume a growing economy and no major adverse macro economic shocks.

Massive  levels of debt and spending commitments leave the U.S. with two ruinous policy choices.  Congress can cut spending dramatically and watch the economy collapse after which the Government would re-institute massive spending programs and quantitative easing on an unimaginable scale.  The second choice is the odds on favorite – continue the parabolic increase in spending and money printing and watch the economy implode as all bond investors (not just Bill Gross) refuse to purchase worthless treasury debt leaving the U.S. unable to meet its obligations. Either way, the inescapable dilemma that the Nation faces has created the perfect storm for gold and silver.

Gold Hits All Time High and Silver Breaks $40 as Precious Metal Demand Soars

Anything but paper dollars was the theme this week as investors rushed into anything of tangible value.  Gold, silver, oil and commodities of all types have been skyrocketing since last August when the Federal Reserve announced its second round of quantitative easing.

Gold closed at an all time high of $1,469.50 as measured by the London PM Fix Price and silver hit a 31 year high closing the week at $40.22.  Some analysts cautioned that the rapid rise in gold and silver prices could lead to a pullback, but overbought markets tend to defy such logic.  Gold has decisively broken through resistance at the $1,450 level and silver looks ready to challenge the all time high of $48.70 reached in 1980.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,469.50 +51.50 (+3.63%)
Silver $40.22 +2.59 (+6.88%)
Platinum $1,803.00 +30.00 (+1.69%)
Palladium $798.00 +26.00 (+3.37%)

The surge in precious metals prices reflects the obvious conclusion that developed nations of the world are on a trajectory with a potentially devastating debt crisis.  The budget antics in Washington make it clear to any impartial observer that spending will not be cut and the parabolic growth of debt will continue.  No one knows how the looming debt crisis will ultimately play out for the Nation, but one certain outcome is that the dollar’s purchasing power is likely to diminish greatly (see Ron Paul Talks About Horrendous Currency Debasement).

Gold rose by $51.50 on the week and is up over $300 per ounce over the past year.

GOLD - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has been the standout performer over the past year, increasing by over 122% since last August.  This week was no exception with silver sprinting past the $40 mark and gaining 6.9% on the week. Despite the large increase in the price of one ounce of silver, the Silver Institute reports that both investment and fabrication demand soared last year.  During 2010, world investment demand for silver increased by 40% and fabrication demand (which accounts for 83% of total silver demand) rose by 13%.

Platinum and palladium also rose on the week, recouping the price correction experienced after the Japanese earthquake.  Platinum rose by $30 on the week to $1,803 while palladium rose by $26 to $798.

Silver Price Above $40 and Gold Hits New All Time High in Overseas Trading

Gold soared to new all time highs in Asian markets and silver pierced the $40 per ounce level as new demand continues to drive precious metal prices higher.

The world spot price of gold hit an all time high of $1,470.80 up $12.40 and silver pierced the psychological $40 level, reaching $40.23 per ounce.  Platinum and palladium were also both up over 1% to $1,808 and $794, respectively.

Precious metal buyers had numerous reasons to be bullish including skyrocketing oil and food prices, the worsening situation with the European debt crisis, continuing conflicts in major oil producing countries and the ugly specter of a government shutdown in the U.S. due to the inability of Congress to come to grips with an exploding deficit and looming debt crisis (see Budget Fiasco Sends Wrong Message To U.S. Creditors).

Gold has now risen by over $31 per ounce this week and by $50 since March 28, breaking through resistance at the $1,450 level. Investors are seeking to protect their wealth from inflation and the continuing debasement of paper currencies as nation after nation continues to run huge deficits in an attempt to revive weak economies.  A glimpse of the end game to massive government deficits and liabilities is currently on display in Washington and the message is a resounding endorsement for diversifying out of paper money.  Politicians will not cut spending for a large variety of reasons, calling into question the future solvency of numerous sovereigns worldwide.

Silver has now advanced a spectacular $9.33 or 30% since the beginning of the year and shows no sign of slowing down.  According to the Silver Institute, world investment demand for silver skyrocketed by 40% during 2010 and was the primary reason for the huge 78% increase in silver prices last year.  Total fabrication demand, which accounted for 83% of silver demand last year,  increased by almost 13% despite the large rise in silver prices.

The looming global debt crisis and the printing of money has lead to surging investor demand for real assets.  Since late last summer when the Federal Reserve initiated its latest money printing campaign, the price of raw material prices as represented by the S&P GSCI Spot Index has soared by 35%.

Gold and Silver Prices Soar As Budget Fiasco Sends Wrong Message To U.S. Creditors

Gold and silver prices rose to new highs today on continuing concerns over a weak U.S. dollar, the European debt crisis, growing conflicts in the MidEast and escalating doubts over the ability of the United States to avoid a debt crisis.  The ongoing budget charade in Washington makes it perfectly clear that neither political party has the desire or ability to seriously address the exploding level of U.S. debt.

Gold hit a new all time high of $1463.70 and silver reached a 31 year high at $39.79.  Prices of both metals eased in early afternoon trading with the New York Spot Price for gold at $1456.70 and silver down fractionally at $39.33.  The limit on future increases in precious metals prices has effectively been removed due to the absolute inability of Congress to address the looming debt crisis.

GOLD - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

With the United States facing a $1.5 trillion dollar deficit on a projected budget of $3.6 trillion, politicians are threatening to shut down the Government over their inability to agree on whether spending should be cut by $40 or $60 billion.  Does anyone really believe that Congress is capable of coming to terms with the reality of an exploding deficit and spiraling national debt when agreement cannot be reached on $20 billion – a mere one half of one percent of total government spending?

The surge in gold prices reflects the realization that the nation is on the fast track to higher interest rates, a spiraling increase in the cost of living and a continued debasement of the U.S. dollar (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).

Meanwhile, as the threat of a Government shutdown looms, Treasury Secretary Geithner warned of dire consequences if the U.S. is not allowed to borrow more money by raising the debt ceiling above its current limit of $14.3 trillion.  At a meeting with a Senate Appropriations subcommittee Secretary Geithner forecast that a U.S. default would lead to much higher interest rates, the failure of hundreds of thousands of businesses, payment cuts to senior citizens and a financial crisis worse than that of 2008 – 2009.

Geithner’s prediction of Armageddon, unfortunately, comes with no prescription on how to reign in out of control Government financial policies which are the fundamental threat to the country’s economic future.  It’s not just this year’s or last year’s multi trillion dollar deficits that are the root of concern, but rather the massive long term structural deficits that are now built into Government spending budgets.

The debt limit will eventually be raised and both political parties will claim victory.  America’s creditors will ponder the increasing risk of U.S. Treasury debt and ultimately conclude that the U.S. has no will to fix a financial system on the brink of insolvency.  The ultimate day of financial Armageddon, alluded to by Secretary Geithner, will not be forestalled by our unworkable political process.  The final reckoning and hard choices will be made only when forced upon us by markets that refuse to finance additional U.S. borrowing.