April 27, 2024

Hong Kong’s Secret $50 Billion Gold Bullion Vault

Bloomberg TV asks Where do you hide $50 billion of gold in Hong Kong?

The location is secret but the reason for building a new massive bullion vault in Hong Kong is not.  According to Bloomberg, the decision by Malca-Amit to build the bullion vault was based on unrelenting physical demand for gold in Asia.  During 2011, gold demand in China increased by 20%.  In addition, customers vaulting their holdings want the gold to be kept close to home.

The new gold bullion vault is designed to hold 1,000 metric tonnes of gold, worth about $51 billion at today’s price.  The vault already holds 2,400 tonnes of gold owned by gold exchange traded funds (ETF).

Beyond its importance as a storage location, the massive amount of gold holdings that the vault will eventually hold signals a fundamental change for the gold market.  The massive holdings of Asian gold will shift price setting action away from the London and the U.S. exchange cartels which dominate and manipulate gold pricing.

Gold’s Fundamental Role In The Financial System

By Vin Maru

It is currently estimated that the largest 110 central banks have 16% of their reserves as gold.  Anyone who follows the gold market knows that many central banks have become net buyers of gold in the last few years, and the pace of accumulation seems to be growing.  While central banks continue to accumulate gold, the misinformed mainstream media are still chanting the “gold is in a bubble” mantra.   What they are not acknowledging is the clear evidence that the highest level of bankers and regulators are proposing that gold become a Tier 1 asset class with zero risk, which can also be used for collateral in financial transactions.

Recently, we wrote an article about a proposal made by the FDIC to make rule changes and allow gold bullion to be recognized as a Tier 1 asset class with zero percent risk weighting.  Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which is the central bank for central banks, is considering reclassifying gold as a risk-free assets as part of the Basel III framework. In their recent progress report, on page 26 under the section for other assets, they state the following (in footnote 32):

“At national discretion, gold bullion held in own vaults or on an allocated basis to the extent backed by bullion liabilities can be treated as cash and therefore risk-weighted at 0%.”

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is an international regulatory agency that brings together banking regulators from 27 nations including the US, the UK, and China. This past week they published a draft of standards which creates “International consistency” with regards to margin requirements and seek tougher rules for non-centrally cleared swaps in the over-the-counter derivatives market.  This proposal helps to align rules for the $648 trillion market for OTC derivatives in which regulators are seeking tougher oversight after the 2008 collapse.  The proposal sets out a partial list of assets that companies can use as collateral for trading in the OTC derivatives market.  It includes a range of financial instruments to be used as collateral, including cash, government debt, “high-quality corporate and covered bonds,” gold and equities listed on “major” stock exchanges.   This is just another example of how the gold role in the financial system is changing; it is becoming viewed as a safe asset class to hold as collateral.  If implemented, financial firms trading in the OTC derivative market will be able to use gold as collateral for posting and meeting margin requirements.

The evidence is clear as day when you look at the facts.  Gold is moving towards the financial system, not away from it.  The bankers and regulators are now considering rule changes to introduce gold back into the financial system.  If these proposals take effect in January 2013, the world will realize that gold is here to stay; maybe even MSM will warm up to the idea that gold is a safe asset to own.  The only question is at what price gold will be trading at when all this happens.

The current weakness during the summer doldrums seems like a good time to accumulate physical while support holds above $1530.   If the paper manipulators decide to push gold below support, it should be short lived and expect a quick rebound to current prices.  The worlds financial problems have not gone away, the debts continue to grow, and inflation by way of the printing press is here to stay.  Gold may not cure all of the world’s financial problems, but it is here to stay and the gold bull run is far from over.  Expect to see higher prices in 2013 and beyond, especially as the central bankers and regulators voluntarily introduce gold back into the financial system as a risk free, Tier 1 asset class.

Hard asset advocates have always known the value of owning and holding gold.  Central bankers and regulators are now finally acknowledging gold’s value in the monetary system as an asset class.  Next year MSM will be touting the virtues of owning gold once again.  The key is to be ahead of this curve before it happens.  If any of these proposals take effect, you want to be ahead of the herd as more and more banks and financial institutions stampede towards gold in the years ahead.

 

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Precious Metals Storage – Everything You Need To Know But Probably Don’t

By Nick Barisheff:

Worldwide economic uncertainty has created a growing interest in precious metals as a way to preserve wealth. Today, global risks for investors include currency devaluation, sovereign debt defaults, bond market collapses and stock market losses, all underpinned by ever-increasing government debt.

For protection from impending economic Armageddon, investors are turning in increasing numbers to the traditional safe haven of precious metals. Unfortunately, many today don’t know how to purchase or store bullion, and consequently may find themselves as vulnerable to financial collapse as those who didn’t purchase any bullion at all.

This increased interest in precious metals as portfolio insurance has spawned a new generation of precious metals-based financial products, many of which are paper proxies or derivatives of bullion. There are even unregulated markets for the exchange of “digital gold.”

A clear case for transparency

In 2007, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge gave a speech entitled “A Clear Case for Transparency”  to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce. “…[I]investors will have to take on more responsibility for diligent research,” he said, “so that they can better understand the nature of their investments and demand greater transparency where it is now lacking … they must do their own homework and make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying.”

Most investors do not read the fine print of the agreements they sign with respect to financial investments; they make assumptions, but do not definitively know if they own actual bullion. Some are attracted to certain bullion investments because of low premiums and low storage fees, but when was the last time Wall Street and the major banks gave the investing public a deal?

Investors who don’t do their homework may be dismayed to find that their safe haven asset has proved to be anything but. These same people perform rigorous due diligence when purchasing a home, car or boat, demanding that they have clear legal title to the asset in question. The same attention to detail must be paid when investing in bullion.

The most important concept to understand is that a financial institution CAN sell an investor’s bullion if the agreement states that it can. Banks are not raiding allocated accounts; rather, they are following the provisions of the contract, in which the bullion is not allocated despite an investor’s assumptions.

There does appear to be cause for concern regarding the transparency of bullion products. As reported by the economic news website ZeroHedge, financial services giant Morgan Stanley paid out $4.4 million in June 2007 to settle a class action lawsuit brought by clients after the firm charged them to “buy and store” precious metals, but did neither .

Similarly, a class action lawsuit filed in New York’s federal court accuses UBS Financial Services of misleading silver investors, and charging them storage fees for metals that were never purchased, let alone allocated or stored for them.

A larger problem has been brewing for several years now, that of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are generally viewed as a low-cost panacea that replaces almost any investment strategy, including the purchase of gold bullion, and they are giving investors a false sense of security.

False sense of security for ETF investors

ETFs started as equity index vehicles, in which brokers acting as Authorized Participants borrowed shares from institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds or their clients’ margin accounts to contribute to the Origination Basket of shares. They received ETF shares at Net Asset Value (NAV) in exchange, and sold them to investors at NAV – keeping all of the money. This is standard practice, as brokers have always been able to borrow shares from clients’ margin accounts for the purpose of shorting or for lending to other brokers.

Essentially, many ETFs hold assets that have been borrowed. Because there are no specific prohibitions to prevent the same practice from being used in precious metals ETFs, the same methodology is likely being used. Many investors are attracted by the low management fees offered by precious metals ETFs, but few understand the problems that may arise when more than one person has claim to the same asset.

ETF-based financial crisis could make 2008 look like child’s play

This ETF structure will work during normal market conditions. However, it may result in losses and disputes if the Authorized Participants, acting as market makers, become insolvent or step aside during a precipitous decline. If a bank or brokerage firm becomes an insolvent Authorized Participant, either the lender of the assets or the ETF shareholders will suffer losses. During a market crash, existing holders may be unable to sell their ETF shares.  Although this possibility was considered remote when ETFs were created, the recent and recurring failures of banks and brokerage firms make these concerns far more real .

The bottom line on ETFs is that they are tracking vehicles with multiple claims/counterparty risks on their assets as well as their shares. As debt-based stress on the global financial system continues to build, the flash-crash of 2010 may well have foreshadowed an ETF-based financial crisis that will make the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 look like child’s play.

Own bullion with clear title

When we at Bullion Management Group sit down with clients seeking to own bullion, we present them with our Precious Metals Pyramid Chart. Moving up the pyramid increases risk; moving down the pyramid increases safety. A portfolio’s foundation should consist of physical bullion owned outright. Farther up the pyramid are proxies of bullion in one form or another that are more risky and often less liquid; in other words, the opposite of a safe haven asset you can count on in times of financial stress. Bullion should always meet two criteria: It should not be someone else’s liability, and it should not be someone else’s promise of performance.

To establish a physical bullion portfolio foundation with metals that are stored on an allocated and insured basis, one that will protect against what could be called ethical mayhem in today’s financial sector, investors must, as Governor Dodge advised, make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying. While reading legal documents and prospectuses is tedious, the truth is in the fine print and investors must do their own due diligence, and beware of complex investment structures.

Demand documentation that transfers title directly to the purchaser

For a bullion product, be it a fund or actual bullion bars, to earn its place as the foundation of a portfolio, the bullion purchaser must demand documentation that legally transfers title of specific, physical bars directly to them. Do not accept IOUs, paper proxies or derivatives. It is important to read the purchase documents carefully to ensure they convey legal title. Only after the purchaser has legal title can they enter into a binding custody agreement for bullion storage on an allocated, insured basis. In that agreement, the purchaser must be able to identify all terms and rights concerning insurance and secure, allocated storage.

Proper insurance and allocated storage in a credible, guarded vault costs money, so steer clear of bullion products promising low fees. If the deal appears too good to be true, the physical bullion may not exist. What the investor may have is paper bullion that will not offer protection when it is most needed; they may simply be an unsecured creditor of the dealer. It is hardly prudent to be tempted by low storage fees that will save a fraction of a percentage point while risking an entire bullion holding. Short cuts and penny pinching are inadvisable strategies for any asset intended as an ultimate safe haven of wealth protection.

Home storage not worth the risk of invasion or physical assault

Many people think that storing their bullion at home is a good way to economize on physical bullion storage fees, but be aware that any sizeable amount of home-stored bullion will not be covered by a household insurance policy.

Keeping a modest—and secret—stash of small-denomination gold or silver for barter purposes is recommended in the event that ATM machines aren’t working, or a ‘bank holiday’ is announced. This may seem like an excess of caution until you consider that, earlier this year, the Bank of Italy authorized the suspension of payments by Bank Network Investments Spa (BNI) without first advising depositors .

Unless absolute secrecy is maintained, home storage means putting yourself and your family at risk of a home invasion. There has been an increase of home invasions in England during Asian wedding season, when gold gifts are stored in homes, and street gangs and professional thieves are only too happy to relieve people of their precious metals .

Even in peace-loving Canada, a British Columbia man lost his life savings of $750,000 in silver bars to knife-and-gun wielding thugs who arrived at his door disguised as police officers. When he let them in, the ‘officers’ forced him to open his vault and stole the silver . For any sizeable amount of bullion, home storage is clearly not worth the risk.

Many precious metals dealers do not trust banks for storage, and prefer private vault facilities. They may rethink this approach on reviewing a British case where authorities raided three private safe deposit box centres, and opened 6,717 private boxes . The owners of the boxes were required to provide proof of the contents of their box before their possessions were returned. Most could not do so, and much of the cash involved went missing while other items are in dispute. The ensuing litigation will likely last for decades; in the meantime, those who stored bullion in their boxes have been relieved of their metal, and may only receive compensation in the amount of the value of the bullion at the time of the raid.

Another consideration is that safe deposit box contents cannot be insured, and there is no proof that anything is actually in the box. Investors who are still interested in private vaults or safe deposit box centres should perform due diligence on the financial condition of the operator and the owner of the vault, since stored assets may be at risk in the case of a private vault’s insolvency.

Storing bullion at home, in a safe deposit box or in a private vault is another form of false economy, wherein investors put their safe haven asset at risk to save a small amount in storage fees.

LBMA bullion in LBMA member vaults

Another important aspect of due diligence for a proper foundation of wealth preservation is the assurance that your bullion is in the form of Good Delivery bars, and stored in the vault of a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member.

The LBMA is a wholesale, over-the-counter market for trading gold and silver. Its members include the majority of the bullion banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.

The reason for insisting on LBMA bullion is that it assures the purchaser of the quality and fineness of the bars. Once gold is outside a chain of integrity such as that of the LBMA, it may need to be re-assayed before it can be sold. This prevents gold-plated Tungsten bars from entering the chain of integrity. Re-assaying is time consuming, engenders extra cost and once again defeats the purpose of a safe haven store of wealth that offers efficient liquidity.

We constantly hear stories of discount bullion, or bullion sold at no premium to the spot price. The likelihood that this is pure bullion from an ethical source is slight to none.

In case of fire, you need an extinguisher, not a picture of one

Bullion demand is clearly growing as both sovereign nations and the world’s largest financial institutions buckle under the burden of unserviceable debt, leaving helicopter-loads of new money printing and associated currency devaluation as the only way out.

Investors can protect their portfolios by purchasing physical bullion. Just as with any large asset purchase, demand documentation that confers legal title to the bullion you are purchasing, review a written custodial agreement that specifies insured, allocated storage without giving the custodian the right to deal with the bullion in any way, and insist on Good Delivery bars.

When the next financial firestorm erupts, you need real, physical bullion and not a paper proxy; just as in a fire you need a real fire extinguisher, not a picture of one.

Nick Barisheff is President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company that provides investors with a cost-effective, convenient way to purchase and store physical bullion. Widely recognized in North America as a bullion expert, Barisheff is an author, speaker and financial commentator on bullion and current market trends.  His first book, $10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise is the Investors Safe Haven, will be published in the fall of 2012. For more information on Bullion Management Group Inc. visit: www.bmgbullion.com.

Have Gold Stocks Hit Bottom Yet? Richmont Mines Latest Disappointment

The price of gold is almost exactly unchanged on the year.  The first trading day of the year saw gold close at $1598 per ounce.  After reaching a high of $1781 on February 28th, gold has drifted lower and at today’s closing price of $1604 gold is up a fraction of a percent on the year.

 

The story has been quite different for stockholders in gold mining companies.   Gold stocks have gone through a brutal sell off during 2012 despite the neutral price action of gold bullion.  Stock prices of the junior gold miners have been particularly brutalized as shown by the Market Vectors Junior Gold Mine ETF (GDXJ) which is down over 50% from its high late last year.

 

GDXJ - Courtesy stockcharts.com

The shares of the largest gold miners have also seen major losses during 2012.  The PHLX Gold and Silver Index (^XAU), comprised of 16 major gold and silver producers, has decline by 21% from its peak reached in early February.

 

XAU - courtesy stockcharts.com

The latest casualty in the junior gold mining sector was Richmond Mines (RIC) which recently lowered its estimate of reserves and production and took a major write down on assets.  Richmond, a highly regarded gold mining company with excellent reserves and earnings prospects, was only one of the latest blowups in the junior gold mining sector.  Richmond Mines has collapsed 70% from its $13 per share price in late January, closing today at $3.97.

 

Courtesy stockcharts.com

Is the decline in gold mining shares a harbinger for the future trend in gold bullion or is the latest sell off a major buying opportunity?

Here are some thoughts from two of the brightest minds in the industry who both have superb long term track records.

Legendary gold investor John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) remains bullish as discussed in his latest Gold Strategy Investment Letter.

Why would anyone own them other than for the possibility of a higher gold price?  While we do not wish to minimize such issues as capital spending cost pressures, resource nationalism, or competition from GLD and similar instruments, we believe those concerns will fall by the wayside with the resumption of the bull market in the metal.  If gold were to trade at $2,000/oz. later this year, and should the ratio of gold mining shares (XAU basis) return to the mid -point of its range since the launch of GLD in 2004, or roughly 15% versus the current level roughly 10%, mining stocks could  double on a 25% increase in the gold price.

The policy challenges facing the Volcker Fed and the Reagan administration that ultimately capped the previous bull market in gold seem mild by comparison to those of today.  We believe that gold remains under owned and misunderstood notwithstanding a thirteen year bull market.  It is considered a fringe strategy to most, a little bit exotic and slightly risqué to the mainstream investor.  While policy makers attempt to buy time by inventing solutions that are incomprehensible to most, the dream of mainstream investors for robust growth amidst stable economic conditions remains alive.  Faith in half-baked policy improvisations that are nothing more than repackaging bad debt in the envelope of sovereign credit, along with hope that ever increasing quantities of sovereign debt will generate growth is, in our opinion, delusional.

Peter Grandich gives an excellent in-depth analysis on both gold stocks and gold bullion in a recent post on the Grandich Letter website.  The full post is a must read – here are some of his latest thoughts.

Despite general metals prices much, much higher than a decade or two ago, the mining and exploration industry is far more challenged now than ever before. This is especially true as you move further down the food chain in the junior resource sector.

I’m certain there are other reasons, but I believe the above is a good part of why we’re where we are today. The question now is does this mean the mining and exploration stocks are no longer worthy?

The “mother” of all bull markets continues thanks to four key reasons:

  • Once dominant sellers that capped any advances, Central Banks are now net buyers.
  • Gold producers, who once “cut their noses to spite their faces” by selling forward large quantities of future production and helped capped the price by doing so, now operate under the belief hedging is a “four-letter” word among investors.
  • Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) greatly changed the balance between supply and demand. Investors who never or rarely sought exposure to gold beforehand (because of difficulties associated with physical bullion buying) and/or who ended using mining shares for exposure only to see them not come close to correlating movements in the gold price themselves, embraced ETFs in a big and powerful way in order to have exposure to gold. Whether or not those ETFs are really direct ways to physical ownership doesn’t concern them, but their large-scale appetite for them combined with the changes among Central Banks and gold producers greatly altered the supply versus demand in favor of demand.
  • Gold is money. There’s no Central Bank printing it like it’s going out of style. There’s no government(s) borrowed up to their eyeballs in it. Where you find real growing wealth in the world you find those people acquiring it are using gold as a storer of their wealth.

Gold Bullion Coin Sales Up 13% In June, Silver Bullion Coin Sales Remain Steady

According to the latest report from the U.S. Mint, sales of gold bullion coins increased by over 13% during June, while total sales of the silver bullion coins were essentially unchanged from May.

Monthly sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin have fluctuated considerably during 2012 with sales reaching a monthly high of 127,000 ounces in January and a monthly low of 20,000 ounces in April.  Sales rebounded strongly in May to 53,000 ounces and continued higher in June with the sale of 60,000 ounces.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin can vary dramatically from month to month based on many factors.  The all time yearly sales record for the gold bullion coins of 1,435,000 ounces was reached in 2009  when many people feared that the financial system would collapse.  Sales volume of the gold bullion coins have not, however, had a direct correlation to the price of gold.  Gold closed 2009 at $1,087.50 per ounce and subsequently went on to hit a 2011 high of $1,895 on September 5th.  Despite the fact that gold increased by over 74% since year end 2009, total gold bullion coin sales declined in both 2010 and 2011.

If the European financial storm continues to unwind into a collapse similar to what we experienced in 2008, sales of the gold bullion coins could easily expand dramatically over the record levels seen in 2009.  With each passing day, there seem to be fewer reasons to maintain confidence in the paper money system as central bankers and governments attempt to prop up a debt burdened world economy with additional debt and money printing.

Listed below are the yearly sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins since 2000.  The total for 2012 is through June 30th.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 343,500
Total 7,593,000

If the sales trend of American gold bullion coins continues on the pace it has been on thus far, 2012 may turn out to be the fourth year in a row of lower sales.  The graph below shows gold bullion coin sales since 2000 with figures for 2012 annualized based on sales through June 30th.

U.S. Mint sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coin continued strong in June at 2,858,000 ounces, down slightly from the May total of 2,875,000 ounces.  After a strong start in January with sales of over 6 million ounces, sales dipped below 2 million ounces in February and April.  Year to date sales through June 2012 of the silver bullion coins total 17,392,000 ounces, down by 22% from the comparable sales period in 2011 when 22,303,500 ounces were sold.

If sales of the silver bullion coins continue at the same pace for the remainder of 2012, total sales could exceed 34 million ounces, not far below the record set during 2011 of 39.9 million ounces.   Considering that silver has corrected in price from $48.70 reached during April of 2011, the volume of silver bullion coin sales is very robust, with buyers taking advantage of lower prices.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins, the U.S. Mint sells numismatic series of both gold and silver American Eagle coins which the public can purchase directly from the U.S. Mint.  Bullion versions of the gold and silver American Eagles are only sold to Authorized Purchasers who in turn resell the product to the general public and other dealers.

Total annual U.S. Mint sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000 are shown below.  Sales totals for 2012 are through June 30th.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 17,392,000
TOTAL 215,792,500

John Paulson Remains Bullish On Gold With $4,000 Target

John Paulson, hedge fund titan, seemed invincible in the opening days of 2011.  Based on a huge bearish position in mortgage bonds, Paulson’s hedge funds earned an astonishing $15 billion during 2007.

Paulson’s winning streak continued for three years and by the end of 2010, Paulson’s success had attracted huge amounts of new investor money.   By the end of 2010, the amount of money under management in Paulson’s funds had swelled to  over $32 billion.  During 2010 Paulson personally made $5 billion and had become an investment legend.

No one, least of all John Paulson, could have imagined the disaster that was ready to unfold during 2011.  Paulson’s two largest funds got crushed during 2011 with the Paulson Advantage fund down 36% and the Paulson Advantage Plus fund down a staggering 52%.  Bad bets involving financial stocks and a large investment in Sino-Forest, a Chinese timber company, proved disastrous during 2011.

Although Paulson is well known for his long term bullish bets on gold this did not save him during 2011.  Despite a 10% increase in the price of gold during 2011, Paulson’s positions in gold stocks contributed to his losses  as gold shares dramatically underperformed gold bullion.

In a wide ranging interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Paulson explained why 2011 turned out to be the year of pain for both himself and fund investors.

The firm had made four major mistakes, according to Paulson, “overweighting long event equity,” underestimating Europe’s debt crisis, overestimating the U.S. economy, and some plain-old terrible stock picking. “Our performance in 2011 was clearly unacceptable,” he wrote. “However, we believe 2011 will be an aberration in our long-term performance.”

Despite the huge losses of 2011, Bloomberg notes that Paulson still registered gains of $22.6 billion for investors over the lifetime of his funds, the third best in the hedge fund industry.

Paulson told Bloomberg that he considers 2011 an “aberration” and expects his long term strategies, including his large bet on the gold market to rack up large gains going forward.  During an interview in October 2010 at the University Club in New York, Paulson predicted that the price of gold would hit $4,000 per ounce.

Paulson explained his view on gold during the Bloomberg Businessweek interview as follows:

“We view gold as a currency, not a commodity,” Paulson says. “Its importance as a currency will continue to increase as the major central banks around the world continue to print money.” He adds that as the market keeps shuddering, demand for gold will stay high, and soon enough all of his depressed gold holdings should shoot up. He also thinks that anyone in Greece, Italy, and France should pull all their money out of the banking system and purchase gold bars before the Continent collapses.

Although Paulson remains committed to gold long term, he did substantially reduce his holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) during 2011.  At March 31, 2011, Paulson’s funds held 31.5 million shares of GLD valued at $4.4 billion but by the end of 2011, the position had declined to 17.3 million shares valued at $2.85 billion.   In Paulson’s latest Form 13-F filing with the SEC at March 31, 2012, Paulson’s position in the GLD remained unchanged from 2011 year end holdings.

GLD - courtesy yahoo finance

In hindsight, Paulson should have gone “all in” on gold during 2011 as he did with his bearish mortgage bets in 2007.  Gold closed at $1388.50 on the first day of trading in 2011 and closed the year at $1,531.  Had Paulson been 100% in gold bullion or the GLD during 2011 his portfolios would have increased in value by about 10.3%.

2011 Gold - courtesy kitco.com

FDIC Assigns Gold A “Zero Risk Rating” When Calculating Bank Capital

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke refuses to acknowledge that gold is money, another major regulatory agency views the value of gold money as a risk free asset for calculation of Tier 1 regulatory capital by banks.   Meanwhile, as Ben Bernanke dismisses the value of gold, other central  banks around the world continue to increase gold reserves.  As the world financial system spirals closer to a complete breakdown, it is the holders of paper currencies that are squarely placed at the highest point of the risk spectrum.

TDV Golden Trader examines the current state of the financial system, the role of gold in wealth preservation and suggestions for protecting your gold from government confiscation.

Gold Becomes a Tier 1 Asset Class for Banks

Despite what the Main Stream Media (MSM) or “Financial Pundits” tell you, the gold bull market is far from over.  In fact, it is just starting, in our opinion.  While the misdirected financial world tell you that gold is in a bubble and it has burst, the central bankers and government organizations all know it is far from over.  In fact, gold is moving towards the banking system and not away from it.  We all know that many central banks are now net buyers of gold and their holdings are increasing as their need to diversify away from risky assets and foreign bonds only grows.

Central banks around the world are continuing to stock up on gold. We can now add Kazakhstan’s central bank to the grow list of bankers wanting to hold gold as a part of their currency reserve.  The Kazakh central bank intends to have 20% of reserves in gold, this is up from the current 14-15% currently held.  They plan to purchase 20 tonnes of gold this year, mostly from local producers.  They also mentioned a few weeks ago that they would cut their Euro holding to 25 % from 30%.  We can also add Kazakhstan to the growing number of central bankers which are building up gold holdings including China, Russia, Mexico, Colombia and South Korea.

The price of gold is now hitting all time highs in India, one of the biggest buyers of gold around the world.  Prices have reached an all-time high of $544.74 US (Rs 30420) per 10 grams.  With a slowing economy and low demand for the Indian rupee, it has been losing value lately and still remains weak.   However, gold demand is still robust even at these elevated prices as investors in India still consider gold a safe haven as it counters the effects of inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.

Over the past five years, gold has provided Indian investors with a 27.19% annualized return versus a pathetic 2.67% in the equity market.  This trend and move to gold has only grown in the last year.  Gold assets under management by funds have increased almost 100% $1.83 billion by April 2012, last year the value was $981 million.  In 2011, the gold ETFs in India saw a net inflow of $725 million.  For thousands of years the Indian culture has had an affinity for gold, and that will never change, and neither will their demand for physical at elevated prices.  Why?  Indians understand that gold is money and a true form of saving.  It’s the only way to protect assets and wealth from government theft, something the West is still learning.

Even the good ol’ USSA is starting to recognize gold as a tier one asset class. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) just issued a notice regarding a new policy proposal on how banks should revise the measurement of risk-weighted assets by implementing changes made by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to international regulatory capital standards and by implementing aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act.  Under the proposal the following assets would carry a zero percent risk weighting, notice how gold bullion is listed as the second item:

A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

  • Cash;
  • Gold bullion
  • Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
  • Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).

So regardless of what the MSM says, we continue to see more central bankers buying and hoarding gold.  New proposals by government banking agencies are being introduced into the system and gold is included as a tier one asset to hold with ZERO RISK.  All the signs are in place and what the MSM hasn’t been told yet is that gold is coming back into the banking system.

We are in a world where currency wars are being fought daily, and as the system continues to collapse under its own weight of paper printing, gold will be the go to asset and possibly the last man standing.  Don’t be fooled by what the MSM says, they rarely know what they are talking about and are paid to misdirect the puppets. Gold is here to stay.

European Capital Controls and a Flight to Safety

The Greek Elections are over and the pro-bailout New Democracy party won with approximately 29.7% of the vote.  By winning the popular vote, they were given a 50-seat bonus.  This combined with the support of the Pasok Socialist (who took 12.3% of the vote), will have 162 seats in the 300 seat parliament.  Combined, they have the ability to pass government policy with a majority vote, so they can now rig policy for keeping with the Euro.

The Euro experiment may have been saved from breaking up for now, but the bailouts will continue for the foreseeable future.  Since the socialists are realizing that austerity is not working, a new movement and calls for a policy of growth are afoot.  We can expect lots more money printing coming out of Europe now and in the foreseeable future.   While in a normal world that would hurt the Euro, the markets relief that the Euro will not collapse immediately should stop the downward pressure on the Euro. In fact, we could see a slight bounce off the recent lows from this news, but I suspect that will be short lived.  None of the problems have been addressed and printing money to fund the bailout will still be the cure central bankers will prescribe to the Euro financial system mess.

Capital controls are already in place within Euroland and this trend is growing quickly as the hot days of summer go on.  Recently, major Italian banks have given notice that customer’s accounts would be frozen for one month because of financial difficulties. This caught many bank customers off guard and completely unaware that they would not have access to their funds.  This should not be startling news for TDV subscribers as we have been warning for months that capital controls are coming and Europe is fast out of the gates in implementation.  For weeks, Europe has been planning bank withdrawal restriction to deal with Greece exit, the only one that hasn’t told you about it is the MSM.

Recently, a businessman was stopped at the Swiss border with £1.6m worth of gold in his car only to have it confiscated by the authorities and was subsequently charged with smuggling.  Italians know very well that the trend of confiscation by the “Mafia” government has only grown recently.  They have been exporting gold to Switzerland and this trend has grown 35% year over year in February 2012.  About 120 tonnes of gold have left Italian boarder in 2011, that is up 65% from 2010.  The Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has been promising a crackdown on tax evasion as he continues to fight the trend of people wanting to avoid paying extortion fees (taxes).  It was estimated that more than £96 billion [€119.6bn] in taxes were dodged in Italy during 2009.

As much as we like gold as an investment and store of wealth, you must take the necessary precaution of protecting your gold from confiscation.  As desperate European governments continue to steal your wealth via inflation and outright theft, you must create a plan of protecting your gold.  Keeping it close at hand where only you have access to it is the first step.

Secondly, you should consider diversifying your precious metals holding internationally, which seems to be more difficult as capital controls in Euroland become stricter.  At TDV, we saw this trend coming a long time ago and have been warning subscribers to plan ahead.  Earlier this year, we published a 100 page report on how to diversify and internationalize your precious metals holding called Getting Your Gold Out Of Dodge (GYGOOD).  If you live in Europe and are interested in protecting your precious metals, this report is something you should consider getting right away; your time to act may be limited by your own government.

Gold Update

The price of gold is still consolidating.   The price needs to stay above support at the 50 dma of $1615.  If this support holds, then it could move toward resistance at $1675 and the 200 dma.  A break below $1610 could trigger selling and the price could still see one more wave of selling to test support at $1530 or slightly lower again.   If we do get one more wave of selling, I suggest you consider backing up the truck as this could be that last time we see prices this low, possibly forever.

The Gold Barbarians Talk Back

According to Warren Buffett, the decade long rally in gold has been based solely on fear and the greater fool theory.  Buffett, believed by many to be one of the greatest investors of all time, has gone out of his way lately to ridicule gold investors.

In his recent 2011 Letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett notes that the purchasing power of the dollar “has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965”.  According to Buffett, the three major investment categories available to investors  are productive assets (such as stocks), currency based investments (such as bonds and bank deposits) and assets that will “never produce anything” (such as gold).

Buffett’s clear preference is to own productive assets.  Currency based investments are “the most dangerous of assets” according to Buffett and gold (the major asset  in the category of investments that  “will never produce anything”) is described as follows in Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders.

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further.  Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.  True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis.  As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.

Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice-Chairman, in a recent CNBC interview, expounded on Buffett’s gold comments by stating that “Civilized people don’t buy gold.  They invest in productive businesses.”  By essentially calling gold investors “barbarians”, Munger turned things up a notch which elicited very compelling counterpoints from around the blogosphere.

The Munger Games – New York Sun

The fact is that people who bought gold a decade ago were far better positioned than those who put their money in Mr. Munger’s company, Berkshire Hathaway. For the value of a share of Berkshire Hathaway has collapsed over the past decade to barely more than 74 ounces of gold from the 238 ounces it was worth a decade ago.

Hmmm. Was it Ayn Rand on which Mr. Greenspan overdosed? In 1966, the future Fed chairman wrote for her newsletter an essay called “Gold and Economic Freedom.” It begins with the sentence “An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense — perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire — that gold and economic freedom are inseparable. . .”The essay ends with the assertion that “[i]n the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation” and that “[t]he financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.”

And maybe the reason that Berkshire Hathaway shares have collapsed in value is that neither he nor Mr. Munger were paying attention to the civilizing effect of gold and economic freedom.

Financial Lexicon – “Civilized People Don’t Buy Gold”

For reasons about which a doctoral thesis could likely be written, humans have a long history of completely mismanaging fiat currencies. Throughout the countless historical examples of the leaders of nations destroying the value of that nation’s currency, gold, as a store of value, has stood the test of time.

Being aware of the historical inability of those who run nations to manage a fiat currency over an extended period of time without eventually destroying the purchasing power of the people is something that certain investors might not appreciate, understand, or care about. Warren Buffett admits that he won’t invest in things he doesn’t understand. And based on his and his colleague Mr. Munger’s comments on gold (not just the ones quoted in this article), it is quite clear they do not understand gold. Hence, they do not invest in it.

Warren Buffett clearly missed the first ten years of the gold bull market and his disdain for gold prevented him from achieving his primary investment goal of preserving purchasing power for his shareholders.  Over the past decade, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has underperformed both gold bullion and gold stocks.

Courtesy bigcharts.com

After over 10 years of being wrong, Buffett faces a major dilemma.  Can he afford to continue rejecting the one asset class able to escape the government’s pernicious efforts to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar?

Gold And Silver Bullion Coin Sales Plunge In April – What Is John Q Public Thinking?

The latest sales figures from the U.S. Mint show a continuing trend of lower gold bullion coin sales. Sales of American Gold Eagle bullion coins hit an all time high in 2009 when the Mint sold 1,435,000 ounces. During 2010, sales declined to 1.2 million ounces and in 2011 only 1 million ounces of gold bullion coins were sold.

Sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins in April totaled only 20,000 ounces, the lowest monthly sales figure since June 2008 when 15,500 ounces were sold.  Total year to date gold bullion sales of 230,500 ounces through April 2012 are down a substantial 43% from the first four months of 2011 when the U.S. Mint sold 407,500 ounces.

If sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins continue at their present pace, 2012 could turn out to be the fourth year in a row of declining sales.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 230,500
Total 7,480,000
Note: 2012 totals through April 30, 2012

Total sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins for April 2012 totaled 1,520,000 ounces, down from 2,542,000 ounces in March.  Year to date sales of the Silver Eagle coins through April 30 totaled 11,659,000 ounces, down by 23.5% from total sales of 15,248,000 ounces in the first four months of 2011.  Sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins reached an all time record high of 39,868,500 ounces during 2011.

Shown below are the U.S. Mint sales figures for the American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000.  Sales totals for 2012 are through April 30th.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 11,659,000
TOTAL 210,059,500

The American Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins cannot be purchased by the public directly from the U.S. Mint. Instead, the Mint sells the coins to a network of authorized purchasers who in turn resell them to the public and secondary retailers.

Sales figures shown above do not include U.S. Mint sales of gold and silver Eagle numismatic coins.  The public is allowed to purchase numismatic versions (uncirculated and proof) of gold and silver coins directly from the U.S. Mint and sales of these coins have also been declining during 2012.

According to Mint News Blog, sales of the 2011 Proof Gold Eagles declined by about 50% from 2010 and sales of the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles have declined by over 60% from the previous year.  The same trend has been seen in the proof version of the American Silver Eagle with 2012 sales down 19% through April.

There are a number of factors likely contributing to the drop off in sales. Over the past few years, the US Mint has caught up with demand for bullion coins, allowing more certainty for the numismatic offerings. The sense of urgency and pent up demand that characterized the product return in 2010 has greatly diminished. There also seems to be a shift away from precious metals in recent months, with some moving back to collector coins. Sales of the US Mint’s Gold Eagle bullion coins were down 30% in the first quarter.

Gold prices may also be having an impact in various ways. For the past two years, the Proof Gold Eagles were released in an environment of rising prices. For the current year, prices have fallen over the past two months leading up to the release. Despite this recent drop, the initial prices for this year’s offerings were higher by the equivalent of $200 per troy ounce compared to last year, possibly making affordability a factor for some collectors. Finally, some collectors may have been delaying orders in anticipation of the price decrease which will take place later today.

With the world economy on the brink of collapse in 2008, Americans decided that they needed to prepare for a financial hurricane and subsequently purchased record amounts of both gold and silver.  Perhaps the public has not noticed that a financial crisis potentially worse than 2008 (and certain to impact the U.S. economy) is brewing “across the pond” with European governments and banks tottering on the brink of insolvency and many countries already in full blown depressions.

With the global economy drowning in debt and facing unprecedented financial problems, it is almost comical that many Americans are avoiding the only asset class able to preserve their wealth.

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Rise In March

Production figures from the U.S. Mint for March show a sharp increase in the sale of both gold and silver bullion coins from the previous month.

Total sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins increased in March to 62,500 ounces, up from 21,000 ounces in February.  Total sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins totaled 2,542,000 ounces in March, up from 1,490,000 ounces in February.  Sales of both bullion coins for the first quarter of 2012, however, declined from the prior year.

Sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins totaled 210,500 ounces for the first quarter of 2012, down 29.7% from the 299,500 ounces sold in the first quarter of 2011.  Total sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins amounted to 10,139,000 ounces during the first quarter of 2012, down by 18.4% from the 12,429,000 ounces sold in the prior year’s first quarter.

The all time record year for sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins occurred in 2009 with 1,435,000 ounces sold.  The all time high record for sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins was in 2011 when a total of 39,868,500 one ounce coins were sold.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Ounces Sold
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 210,500
Total 7,460,000
Note: 2012 totals through March 31, 2012

The amount of physical gold bullion purchased purchased from the U.S. Mint over the past 12 years remains relatively small compared to the amount of gold invested in the two largest gold trust ETFs.  The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is the world’s largest physically backed gold exchange traded ETF fund with current holdings of 41.4 million ounces of gold.  The iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU) currently holds 6.2 million ounces of gold.

The total sales of gold and silver bullion coins detailed above do not include U.S. Mint gold and silver numismatic coin sales which are directly sold to the public.  American Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins are only sold to a network of authorized purchasers  who in turn resell the coins to secondary retailers and the public.  The U.S. Mint decided that using  Authorized Purchasers to sell gold and silver bullion coins to the public was the most efficient means of selling the coins to the public at competitive prices.

Shown below are the U.S. Mint sales figures for the American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000.  Sales totals for 2012 are through March 31st.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 10,139,000
TOTAL 208,539,500