March 18, 2024

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales Drop Sharply from Previous Month and Year

american-silver-eagleSales of the US Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins dropped sharply during February from both the previous month and comparable prior year period.

The US Mint reported total sales of 3,022,000 ounces during February which is down by 19.4 percent from the comparable prior year period and down by a considerable 45.4 percent from the previous month.  Due to strong January sales, however, total sales of the silver bullion coins is up slightly by 0.3 percent on the year.

There were four months during 2014 in which monthly sales of the silver bullion coins dropped below the 3 million level and yet sales hit an all time record high of 44,006,000 troy ounces.  Average monthly sales of the silver bullion coins during 2014 came in at about 3.6 million ounces per month while the average monthly sales year to date during 2015 is at 4.3 million ounces.  The silver bullion coins remain extremely popular with precious metal investors despite the decline in the price of silver since 2011.  Long term silver investors allocating a portion of their portfolio to physical precious metals view the current bargain price of silver as an opportunity to load up as evidenced by 2014 record breaking sales.

The chart below shows the trend of sales for the US Mint silver bullion coins since 2000.  Sales for 2015 are year to date through February 28, 2015.  Ever since the financial crisis when the banking system can close to completely imploding, sales of silver bullion coins have exploded by about 500 percent and remained strong despite the so called recovery in the economy and banking system.

While the sales of gold bullion coins has declined since the financial crisis, silver bullion coins remain as popular as ever with investors seeking a store of value in physical precious metals.

The price of silver has declined sharply since the highs of 2011 as investors have fled what seems like a losing proposition, especially in comparison to stocks and bonds which have been pumped up in value by the Fed’s easy money policies and zero interest rates.  Silver has seen volatile price action since the financial crisis but most investors who have made purchases since 2008 are now at about a break even price level or sitting with losses making this an interesting price juncture for silver investors.

10 year silver

Whether it be stocks, bonds, or precious metals, it is classic psychological behavior for investors to pile in at the top as prices are reaching bull market highs and then refuse to buy at the bottom when everyone is bearish.  No one can predict the timing of future price moves, but with silver prices in the bargain bin and little interest by investors, this is probably an area that deserves additional investment by long term buy and hold investors.  Silver has been considered money and a store of value throughout the ages and this is not likely to change, especially as desperate and over indebted governments rely upon printing press money from the central banks to keep the wildly over leveraged financial system from crashing again.

The sales of silver bullion coins by year since 2000 is shown below.  The figures for 2015 include year to date totals as of February month end.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins

               YEAR

OUNCES SOLD

2000

 9,133,000

2001

 8,827,500

2002

 10,475,500

2003

 9,153,500

2004

 9,617,000

2005

 8,405,000

2006

 10,021,000

2007

 9,887,000

2008

 19,583,500

2009

 28,766,500

2010

 34,662,500

2011

 39,868,500

2012

33,742,500

2013

42,675,000

2014

44,006,000

2015

8,552,000

             TOTAL

 327,376,000

 

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales Up From Previous Year and On Track For Record Breaking 2014 Sales

silver eagleThe US Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins remain more popular with investors than ever, despite the decline in the price of silver.  Apparently there are plenty of long term silver investors who prefer to hold the physical metal and are viewing the decline in the price of silver as an opportunity to load up at bargain prices.

The latest report from the US Mint shows that November sales of the silver bullion coins totaled 3,426,000 ounces, down from the previous month but up by 1,126,000 ounces or 49% from the previous year.  October 2014 was the highest selling month of the year with total sales of 5,790,000 coins.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins year to date through November 30 now total 41,547,000, just shy of the all time record sales year of 2013 when the Mint sold 42,675,000 coins.  If December sales of the silver bullion coins surpass 1.1 million coins, which is very likely, 2014 will be another record breaking sales year.

Gold and silver investors can only shake their heads and wonder at investor confidence in central banks as an orgy of money printing continues worldwide and leveraged debt piles up at a rate and amount never seen before in history. The attitude seems to be “who cares – my stocks and bonds and real estate are going straight up.”

At some future point that no one can predict you can count on another financial accident on par or greater than that of 2008-2009 that will destroy confidence in paper money and the ability of governments to repay debt with sound money.  At that point the exchange rate between dollars and precious metals will amply reward the investors now buying bargain gold and silver.

Silver has now given back the bulk of its gains from the highs reached in early 2011 and could well go lower given the bearish sentiment and declining price pattern.

Since 2000 investors have purchased over 300 million American Eagle silver bullion coins.  Below are the sales by year with the 2014 total through November 30.

 

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar 100%

silver eagleSales of the US Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins has been extremely robust ever since the financial system can close to collapse in 2008.  Prior to the financial crisis sales of the silver bullion coins averaged about 9 million coins per year.

Over the past five years, despite the large correction in the price of silver, yearly sales of silver bullion coins have run well over 30 million coins per year with sales reaching an all time record high of almost 43 million coins in 2013.

Purchasers of physical silver bullion coins buy for the long term to diversify their wealth and hedge against ruinous monetary and fiscal policies fostered by both the government and the Federal Reserve.  While the financial system has been held together over the past five years by the Fed’s zero interest rate policy and money printing, the long term financial health of not only the United States but the world is beginning to look increasingly fragile as debt levels continue to explode world wide resulting in a financial system leveraged beyond comprehension.

Silver has dipped below $17 per ounce this year, off 13% on the year after plunging by 36% in 2013.  While this decline has obviously been painful for silver investors, it has put silver in the bargain bin and silver bullion coin investors are responding accordingly.  If silver bullion coin sales continue at the current pace, sales for all of 2014 could hit an all time high.

Courtesy: Kitco.com

Courtesy: Kitco.com

The US Mint reports that September sales of the silver bullion coins for September 2014 totaled 4,140,000 ounces, double August sales of 2,007,500 and up 37.4% from September sales of the prior year.

Due to a slump in sales during the summer months, year to date sales of silver bullion coins through September are running behind comparable prior year sales.  Year to date sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins through September 30, 2014 totaled 32,251,000 down from 36,088,000 from the prior year.

Since 2000 investors have purchased over 300 million of the one ounce US Mint silver bullion coins as shown below.

Silver American Eagle Bullion Coin Sales in Summer Slump

silver eagleLet’s face it – no one likes to invest when prices are falling, whether it be stocks, bonds, gold, or silver.  Nonetheless, history has shown time and time again, across all asset classes, that investing after prices have collapsed and when there seems to be little reason to buy is usually the exact right time to buy.

This is something that investors in gold and silver may chose to ponder as demand for precious metals continues to decline.  The demand for both gold and silver has fallen as precious metal prices decline and investors turn to other rising asset classes such as real estate and stocks.  According to BullionVault which buys and sells physical gold and silver for its clients, precious metal demand  retreated to a four year low during August.

The weak demand for precious metals was reflected in the latest report from the US Mint which showed lower sales for both gold and silver American Eagle bullion coins (see Gold Bullion Coin Buyers Go On Strike).

Sales of the US Mint one ounce American Eagle silver bullion coins during August continued the sales slump that has lasted throughout the summer.  Although August sales of 2,007,500 coins increased slightly from sales of 1,975,000 in July, sales during August were off almost 45% from August 2013.

Sales of silver bullion coins during 2014 have declined substantially during the June to August time period compared to the prior year.  Total sales of silver bullion coins during the summer months of June through August 2014 totaled 6,674,500 ounces compared to 11,306,500 ounces during the previous year for a decline of almost 41%.

Earlier this year it appeared that the ever popular silver bullion coins would rack up another  record breaking year, above the record sales of 42,675,000 ounces during 2013.  Although sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins have been robust during 2014, breaking last year’s record may remain an elusive goal.

Silver American Eagle Bullion Coin Sales Plunge in June

silver eagleSales of the one ounce American Eagle silver bullion coins plunged in June from both the previous month and previous year.  After hitting sales of almost 4 million ounces during May the US Mint reports that sales of the silver bullion coins for June totaled only 2,682,000.

June sales plunged by over 32% from the prior month and by almost 18% compared to June 2013  when sales were 3,275,000 ounces.  Monthly sales of the silver bullion coins can show dramatic month to month changes based on supply and demand so it is difficult to read much into the current month’s sales figures.

Reflecting the drop in current demand the US Mint recently suspended its allocation program which had been implemented a year ago in the face of soaring demand for silver bullion coins during 2013.  Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins reached a record during 2013 with sales of 42,675,000 ounces, up 26 % from 33,742,500 ounces during 2012.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins remain extremely popular with small investors and sales have remained extremely robust ever since the near implosion of the financial system during 2008.  Sales of the silver bullion coins prior to 2008 ran from eight to ten million ounces per year compared to yearly sales of 30 to 40 million ounces per year after 2008.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins could easily hit another all time record high during 2014 if sales continue at their current pace.  If sales for the next six months match the first six months, sales of the silver bullion coins for 2014 could come in at close to 50 million ounces, shattering last year’s record high sales of 42,675,000.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

Shown below is a graph of sales of the silver bullion coins by year since 2000.

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Demand Remains Strong – 2014 Should Shatter Previous Sales Record

proof-silver-eagleThe American Eagle silver bullion coins produced by the US Mint remain extremely popular with retail investors.  During 2013 silver bullion coin sales hit a record high of almost 43 million ounces and would have been even higher if the US Mint had been able to keep up with demand.  The US Mint actually ran out of silver bullion coins late in the year and suspended sales for most of December and part of January 2014.

Sales of silver bullion coins exploded in the wake of the financial crisis during 2008 when investors began to seriously question of value of paper money which could be manufacturing at will and in unlimited quantity by a profligate government.

Prior to the financial crisis yearly sales of the silver bullion coin ran between eight and ten million ounces.  Since 2010 yearly sales exploded to over 30 million ounces per year and during 2013 exceeded 40 million ounces.

According to the US Mint May sales of the silver bullion coin totaled 3,988,500 ounces up by almost 12% from the previous month and up by 15% from the comparable prior year month.

Sales of the silver bullion coins are shown below by year with 2014 sales through May 31st.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

If the US Mint is able to keep up with demand, 2014 should be another record breaking year for sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins.  If the pace of silver coin sales continues at the current rate sales for 2014 could easily top 50 million ounces, an increase of about 16% from last year.

Silver Remains in a Tug of War Between Supply and Demand

proof-silver-eagleAfter a fierce correction from the highs of 2011 have  the market forces of supply and demand resulted in a stabilized silver price?

On the demand side the industrial use of silver is at a nine year high with fabrication usage expected to rise to over 890 million ounces.   A wide variety of businesses use huge amounts of silver in the production of such items as jewelry, solar panels, electronics, cars, tableware, and photography.

Although silver is most commonly associated by many people as a precious metal investment the industrial demand for silver far exceeds investment demand.  For example, sales by the U.S. Mint of the ever popular American Eagle silver bullion coins hit a record last year of almost 42 million ounces (see Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar) but this amount is a fraction of industrial usage. Since 2000 to date the U.S. Mint has sold over 292 million one ounce American Eagle silver bullion coins which amounts to only 32% of  estimated industrial demand for just one year.

Even as industrial demand for silver booms, Bloomberg News reports that investment demand for silver has diminished due to tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, reduction of the safe haven appeal of silver, reduced demand by China, and the correlation coefficient between gold and silver.

Silver is being undermined by its association with gold.

gold-bullion

While makers of everything from jewelry to solar panels are buying the most silver in nine years, prices are languishing. Investors are dismissing industrial demand and instead focusing on the waning appeal of precious metals as a haven, with the Federal Reserve paring economic stimulus measures, inflation muted and equities rallying.

Silver has been dragged down by a yearlong slump in gold, the commodity most widely held by investors in exchange-traded funds, following a decade-long rally that saw prices for both surge more than sixfold. The five most-accurate precious-metals analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years predict silver will average $18.80 an ounce in the third quarter, the lowest since 2010, and gold will drop 7.3 percent.

“The industrial driver can help, but I don’t think it’s as influential as the investor,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale SA in London and the most-accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg. “Investors were bullish silver because gold was in a bull market. Now that we have gold in a bear market, there’s less enthusiasm coming from investors.”

The correlation has been strong. From December 2008 to June 2011, silver tripled and gold surged 70 percent, with both touching all-time highs, as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system and cut interest rates to a record in a bid to boost the economy. Last year, when signs of economic growth sent gold down 28 percent, silver plunged 36 percent. The declines were the most for both metals since 1981.

Goldman said in an April 13 report that in the long term, silver tends to track gold, and its forecast reflects the historical ratio to gold. An ounce of gold bought 67.21 ounces of silver in London on April 30, the highest since July. The average over the past 30 years is 64.8.

The link with gold is stronger than that with industrial metals. The mean of silver’s 30-week correlation coefficient to gold was 0.86 over the past five years, compared with 0.51 with the London Metal Exchange Index of industrial metals, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A figure of 1 means two assets always move in the same direction.

“The precious-metal characteristic is likely to dominate,” said Barnabas Gan, an analyst at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, and the second-most accurate precious metals forecaster over the past two years. “The risk of higher real interest rates may likely magnify in the middle-long run, and thus raises the opportunity cost for holding silver. The improving global economic picture is also likely to pale safe-haven demand.”

Concern over the value of haven assets is trumping signs that industrial demand is improving. Half of silver supply is used to make things, more than the 10 percent for gold, and demand is picking up as economic growth fuels sales of electronics and cars from China to the U.S.

Since precious metals generally earn returns only through price gains, silver investors were “disillusioned” by the slump over the past year and put their money elsewhere, New York-based researcher CPM said in an April 29 report. Investment demand tumbled 42 percent last year to 105.3 million ounces, the lowest since 2008, according to CPM, which forecast average prices in 2014 will be lower for a third straight year.

SILVER DOLLARS

At the same time, fabrication usage including by makers of cars, jewelry and tableware will rise 2.9 percent this year to 890.7 million ounces, the most since 2005, CPM said. Silver content is increasing in vehicles with more electronics, according to Metals Focus Ltd., a London-based research company. After dropping last year, demand from electronics and battery makers will rebound in 2014, CPM forecasts.

Most industrial metals will get a boost from growth. The world economy expanded 2.1 percent in 2013 and will increase 2.8 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2015, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. While that will help spur a 2.1 percent gain in industrial and photographic demand for silver, investors will sell 250 metric tons from funds backed by the metal, Barclays Plc estimates.

“Silver is not benefiting even though it has so much industrial use as people still call it a precious metal,” James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $357 billion in assets, said. “Its a tug of war between its safe-haven appeal and its use as industrial metal.”

Hedge funds have cut their bets on higher silver prices by 90 percent in the past two months on the Comex in New York, holding a net-long position of 2,620 futures and options in the week to April 22, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The five-year average is about 20,510 contracts.

Despite a huge appetite for silver by industrial users, the reduction of investment demand and a production oversupply may continue to pressure silver prices. During 2014 HSBC is projecting an increase in silver supply to 1.09 billion ounces with demand remaining flat at 938 million ounces.

Until the financial system blows up again, the tug of war between supply and demand in the silver market is likely to restrain silver prices for the immediate future.

Gold Bullion Coin Sales Rise, Silver Bullion Coin Sales Could Hit All Time Record High in 2014

american-silver-eagleGold and silver bullion coin sales by the U.S. Mint during April turned in mixed results with gold sales up and silver sales down.  Despite the fact that gold and silver are in the bargain basement due to price declines, investment demand remains relatively subdued due to tapering of money printing by the Federal Reserve and the apparent recovery of the U.S. economy.

Investor perceptions of precious metals as a safe haven appear diminished despite the ongoing and unprecedented monetary easing by central banks and unrestrained government borrowings.  Gold began the year selling for $1,225 per ounce.  After reaching a high of $1,385 on March 14 gold  declined to a current price of $1,281.25 leaving it up on the year by 4.6%.

The U.S. Mint reported that sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin in April totaled 38,500 ounces up 83% from 21,000 ounces sold in the previous month but down by a substantial 81.6% from April of 2013 when the Mint sold 209,500 ounces.  After dropping for three years in a row since 2009, sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins increased in 2013 to 856,500 ounces up by 13.7% from total sales of 753,000 ounces in 2012.

(Sales figures for gold bullion coins on the charts below are as of April 30, 2014.)

 

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales Since 2000
         Year                            Ounces Sold
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 753,000
2013 856,500
2014 182,000
TOTAL                               9,041,000

Total sales of gold bullion coins year to date total 182,000 ounces.  Based on the current sales rate through April 30th, annualized sales of gold bullion coins would come in at 546,000 ounces, the lowest amount of sales since 2007 when only 198,500 ounces were sold.

Silver Bullion Coin Sales Could Reach Another Record in 2014

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins remained strong in April with a total of 4,590,500 coins sold, down slightly from the previous month’s sales of 5,354,000.

The one ounce American Eagle silver bullion coin remains extremely popular with investors.  Total coin sales during 2013 reached an all time high of 42,675,000.  The previous record sales year going back to 2000 occurred in 2011 when investors scooped up 39,868,500 coins.  If the current sales pace continues, total sales of the silver bullion coin during 2014 could reach a record breaking 55 million ounces.

Silver Supply Glut Weighs on Silver Price – Time for Some Contrary Thinking?

proof-silver-eagleAnyone who has purchased silver in the past three years is now holding a losing position.

The price of silver soared from its low of around $10 during the height of the financial crisis to almost $50 per ounce in May 2011.  Since that time silver has had intermittent rebounds but the price trend remains in a distinct downward channel.  Is it time to double down or wait until silver breaks out of its current downtrend?

Contrarian minded thinkers may do well to keep in mind that the in and out speculators in silver are long gone and that there is still a steady worldwide demand for silver by both industrial users, jewelry makers, and investors.  Although it is easier psychologically to buy anything when the price is sharply increasing, that is not the road to big gains.  Most investors will admit that their biggest winners came from buying something when every “logical instinct” was telling them to sell.

kitco.com

kitco.com

Barron’s added some anxiety for silver bulls this week with commentary about the apparent supply glut in silver production that could keep a lid on silver prices.

Prices are sliding toward 10-month lows, as supplies of the metal are set to outpace demand for the sixth straight year.

For investors, that means betting on lower prices or picking another metal entirely. “Silver has the worst story of all the metals,” says Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist with Archer Financial Services, citing the bountiful supplies and silver’s tendency to move in tandem with gold.

ON TOP OF THE POTENTIAL for higher interest rates, the silver market has been inundated with supplies of the metal. HSBC expects a 3.4% increase in the silver supply to 1.09 billion troy ounces in 2014, while demand will remain nearly unchanged at some 938 million ounces. Part of what’s fuelling that growth is that prices remain above the cost of production. On Friday, silver for June delivery settled near flat at $19.718 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 10.6% off their Feb. 24 high of $22.051 an ounce.

The all-in cost of production for silver falls somewhere between $15 and $17 a troy ounce, making the metal highly profitable when the price hovers around $20 an ounce or above, according to Howard Wen, a precious-metals analyst with HSBC. This creates an incentive for producers to continue ramping up silver output, even while prices slip to much lower levels than a year earlier, he says.

In all probability, the so called over supply in silver has already been priced into the market and silver looks like it’s making a triple bottom in the $20 area.

1 year silver

Over supply situations can quickly turn to a shortage when investors recognize that the current price of silver is at bargain levels.  Meanwhile, purchases of U.S. Mint silver bullion coins continue at very strong levels with March sales up by 43% from the previous month.  Investors eager to scoop up silver at bargain prices bought an all time record amount of almost 42 million ounces of American Eagle silver bullion coins in 2013 and this year could see another record based on year to date sales.

Precious metal investing should not be a short term trade but rather a long term wealth preservation strategy.  A quick glance at any long term debt chart shows that the false prosperity of asset appreciation that occurred since the U.S. went off the gold standard was built on the shifting sands of credit creation and liquidity.  How long the Fed can keep the Frankenstein credit machine going is anyone’s guess but parabolic increases of debt (or anything else for that matter) become mathematically impossible to continue at some point.

CONSUMER CREDIT

Royal Canadian Mint Precious Metal Coins a Hit with Investors and Collectors

Maple Leaf goldThe Royal Canadian Mint has a rich history, striking its first gold sovereign coin back in 1908.  The Mint began production of the world renown Canadian Gold Maple Leaf in 1979 and introduced the 99.99% pure Silver Maple Leaf in 1988.

Investor demand for both the gold and silver Maple Leafs has remained strong year after year.  According to the Mint’s latest third quarter 2013 report, sales volume of the Gold Maple Leaf coins increased during the quarter by 17.5% to 195,000 ounces and sales of the Silver Maple Leaf coins increased by a very robust 40% to 6.7 million ounces.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins, the Royal Canadian Mint produces a wide variety of stunning coins for collectors and investors including such innovative coins as the $20 for $20, a silver coin that has both a face value and a price of $20 (see How to Buy Physical Silver with a Zero Chance of Loss).

Here is a look at some of the most popular and unique coins currently being sold by the Royal Canadian Mint that are a representation of Canada’s rich culture and history.

1 oz. Fine Silver Coin - 100th Anniversary of the Royal Ontario Museum - Mintage: 8,500 (2014)

1 ounce silver coin commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Royal Ontario Museum.

Fine Gold Coin - Pope John Paul II - Mintage: 1,500 (2014)

Pope John Paul II fine gold coin with a mintage of only 1,500 pieces.

Pure Gold Ultra-High Relief Coin - Matriarch Moon Mask - Mintage: 500 (2014)

Matriarch Moon Mask ultra-high relief pure gold coin.

$20 for $20 Fine Silver Coin - Canada Goose

Fine silver Canada goose coin with $20 face value and a price of $20.

$20 for $20 Fine Silver Coin - Bobcat (2014)

$20 for $20 Bobcat coin made of fine silver.