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Have Gold Investors Become Too Bullish? Ask The Same Question At $5,000

February 4, 2012 by 2 Comments

Have too many investors gotten overly bullish on gold?

After a stunning advance of almost $200 per ounce from last year’s closing price, some are asking if gold has gotten ahead of itself.  After advancing almost nonstop since the beginning of the year, gold sold off sharply, dropping by $32.50 to close in New York trading at $1725.90.

Analyst Mark Hulbert, who tracks investor sentiment as reported in the Hulbert Gold Newsletter, reports that bullish sentiment on gold has become extreme.  At the end of 2011, short term gold timers were completely out of the gold market.  The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) registered 0.3% on December 29th compared to 51% today.  Mr. Hulbert sees the rapid return to bullishness by gold investors as a worrisome signal and notes that the HGNSI never got as high as it is today when gold previously traded at current price levels.

Mr. Hulbert notes that his indicator can be early as was the case last year.  In early December Hulbert noted that bearish sentiment was reaching extreme levels but gold subsequently plunged from $1,752 on December 1st to $1,574.50 on December 30th.

One indicator of gold sentiment that does not seem to be signaling an imminent sharp correction in gold is the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (Gold VIX) which measures gold volatility based on SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) options trading.  As bearish put positions on the GLD increase, the VIX rises as it did last August prior to a sharp correction in the price of gold.  After peaking at 40 last year, the VIX is currently at 22.

CBOE Gold VIX (GVZ) - courtesy cboe.com

 

Could the price of gold correct in the short term? Yes.  Should long term investors who hold gold as a safe haven against a government that has an official policy of debasing the currency be worried?  No.

A short term correction is nothing more than a buying opportunity for long term investors.  Why would one care if gold corrects to $1,600 on its way to $5,000?  Here are a few items for consideration by those worried about a “correction” in the price of gold.

The U.S. has accumulated debt obligations and promises that are mathematically impossible to repay.  Neither future economic growth nor tax increases will be sufficient for the government to meet its obligations without debasing the value of the dollar.  The government is spending $1.60 for every $1.00 collected in revenues, half of all families receive some type of government payment and half of all wage earners pay no taxes.

The government’s “solution” for too much debt remains the same – more debt.  Here’s what Treasury Secretary Geithner said when he asked Congress to raise the debt limit in August 2009 when government debt totaled “only” $12.1 trillion.

“Congress has never failed to raise the debt limit when necessary. Because members of both parties have long recognized the need to keep politics away from this issue, these actions have traditionally received bipartisan support. This is clearly a moment in our history that calls for continuation of that tradition.”

As the debt burden approaches the day of reckoning, the proportion of the population actually working continues to decline.

Investors late to the party attempting to diversity into gold may find that it’s too late – gold may not be available at any price.

Gregor Macdonald notes that global gold production over the last decade has been below the average of the past 110 years.  Normally, higher prices will  result in higher supplies as producers rush to capitalize on higher prices.  Despite the fact that the price of gold has increased every year for the past decade, gold production has barely increased – there is simply not that much gold left which hasn’t already been mined.

 

Global gold production - courtesy gregor.us

A looming price correction in gold?  Bring it on!

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Silver Prices Will Soar To Record Levels In 2012 – “Record Breaking” Demand For Silver Bullion

January 31, 2012 by 1 Comment

Corrections are the norm in any long term bull market and silver is no exception.  The correction that began in May of 2011 and ended in December has set the stage for what will be an explosive move up during 2012 and beyond.

Since hitting the 2011 low of $26.16 on December 29, 2011, silver has climbed steadily, closing on Monday at $33.18, up 17.4% on the year and up 26.8% from last year’s low.  Today’s price should be viewed by long term silver investors as an exceptional opportunity for capital appreciation and wealth preservation.

The underlying fundamentals that will drive silver higher this year include unprecedented demand for both physical silver and silver ETFs, virtually limitless money printing by central banks worldwide to prevent a debt implosion and a growing realization by the public that the Federal Reserve is deliberating and systematically debasing the U.S. currency.

Sales of American Silver Eagle bullion coins by the US Mint may hit an all time record in January.  As of January 30th, the Mint has already sold 6,082,000 bullion coins.  The previous all time record for sales occurred in January 2011 when sales were 6,422,000 ounces.

Last January was atypical in that monthly sales of the Silver Eagles coins tapered off to about 3 million coins per month thereafter and only in September 2011 did sales exceed 4 million coins.  In the three previous years from 2008 to 2010, January sales volume established the baseline of monthly sales for the rest of the year.

For example, in 2009, January sales of the Silver Eagle came in at 1,900,000 coins and average sales for the remaining 11 months averaged 2.44 million coins.  If 2012 follows the pattern of 2008 through 2010, sales of the American Silver Eagle Bullion coins could average 6 million coins per month.  Average silver bullion coins sales of 6 million per month during 2012 would result in a record shattering purchase of 72 million coins, up 80% from last year’s record of 39,868,500 ounces.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500

The vast majority of holders in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV)  are solidly committed to owning silver and refused to sell positions during the sharp correction of 2011.  When silver hit a high of $48.70 (London PM Fix Price) on April 28th, the iShares Silver Trust held 11,053 tonnes of silver.  After a rapid and sharp correction to $32.50 on May 12th, the SLV silver holdings declined modestly to 10,516 tonnes as short term speculators and over-leveraged investors sold out at the bottom.

On December 29, 2011, as silver hit its low for the year at $26.16, the iShare Silver Trust held 9,605 tonnes.  A correction from the price high on April 28th to the low on December 29th took silver down by 46.3% but holdings of the iShares Silver Trust declined by a very modest 13.1%.  The vast majority of long term silver investors did not sell out during the correction in expectations of sharply higher prices in the future.

Silver - courtesy kitco.com

 

According to Reuters, precious metal dealers are reporting record breaking silver sales and “dollar sales of silver and gold products reached parity in January for the first time in its history – even though bullion costs 50 times more.”  In addition, dealers are selling record number of the Silver Eagle “Monster Boxes” which hold 500 one-ounce coins.

The European Central Bank, which in December lent a massive €489 billion of freshly printed euros to a collapsing banking system may have to provide double that amount (for a total of $1.27 trillion dollars) during the next round of emergency lending scheduled for February.  According to the Financial Times:

European banks are preparing to tap the European Central Bank’s emergency funding scheme for up to twice as much as the ECB supplied in its debut €489bn auction last month, providing further evidence of the sector’s liquidity squeeze.

Several of the eurozone’s biggest banks have told the Financial Times that they could well double or triple their request for funds in the ECB’s three-year money auction on February 29.

The gold to silver ratio, which on a long term historical basis, has been in the range of 16 is now at the bargain ratio of 52, suggesting strongly that silver could outperform gold on a relative value basis.  At a gold to silver ratio of 20, silver would currently be selling at $87 per ounce.

The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) just completed a follow on offering of Trust Units in which investors snapped up additional trust units representing about 11 million ounces of silver.

Silver’s rapid price gains during January is a harbinger of what could turn out to be a very good year for silver investors.

Filed Under: Bullion Sales, Featured, Silver, US Debt Crisis, US Mint Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Major Buy Signal For Gold And Why Stock Markets Are Ignoring Predictions Of Economic Collapse

January 26, 2012 by 1 Comment

Predictions that the global economic system will collapse have been coming at an accelerated pace lately.  Usually, many of  the most extreme scenarios are from sources more interested in gaining publicity rather than offering a balanced analysis.

What’s unusual is that lately, many of these apocalyptic predictions are coming from some of the most normally sedate institutions in the world such as the IMF and the World Bank.

Central bankers and the heads of world financial organizations usually speak in oblique and obfuscated terms designed to convey confidence.  Either the financial powers are writing a new book of rules or we are all headed for some unimaginably horrific scenario of financial and social chaos.

Here’s a small sample of the latest warnings from the sedate and not so sedate.

IMF Chief Warns Europe Must Fuel Growth

BERLIN—The head of the International Monetary Fund warned that in addition to cutting yawning budget deficits Europe needs to do more to promote growth and stop the crisis from spreading to the world economy.

“It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in which inaction, insularity, and rigid ideology combine to cause a collapse in global demand,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said before the German Council on Foreign Relations. “A moment, ultimately, leading to a downward spiral that could engulf the entire world,” she said.

World Bank Projects Global Slowdown

“Developing countries need to evaluate their vulnerabilities and prepare for further shocks, while there is still time,” said Justin Yifu Lin, the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.

Developing countries have less fiscal and monetary space for remedial measures than they did in 2008/09. As a result, their ability to respond may be constrained if international finance dries up and global conditions deteriorate sharply.

“An escalation of the crisis would spare no-one. Developed- and developing-country growth rates could fall by as much or more than in 2008/09” said Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics and lead author of the report. “The importance of contingency planning cannot be stressed enough.”

Feliz Zulauf Sees More Trouble Ahead

Felix Zulauf: Yes, I believe the peripheral nations have entered recession territory, and I believe it will get worse.

So, the situation in Europe will get worse before it gets better. Moreover, the ECB, which has its roots in the German Bundesbank, will see to it that the ECB does not become the lender of last resort until they are absolutely forced into it by the market. For investors, this is very important to understand. The new leader Mr. Draghi may leave Trichet’s conservative path, however, as since he is in power he has talked one way and acted in another way. This is delicate as the credibility of the ECB could be lost quickly.

Euro Breakup Would Cause Global Meltdown

In his speech at Davos, Soros will say it is “now more likely than now” that Greece will formally default in 2012, Newsweek said. Soros nevertheless thinks the euro will survive, according to Newsweek.

The world is facing a period of “evil,” Soros said, adding that he foresees Europe descending into chaos and conflict, while rioting in the streets of the U.S. will lead to a curtailment of civil liberties and the global economic system possibly collapsing altogether, Newsweek reported.

All of the risks to global prosperity mentioned above have been well known by investors for months now.  The day the IMF Chief warned of a global depression worse than the 1930’s, the Dow Jones yawned and drop by 10 points.

Is there a major disconnect from reality by U.S. investors or has the worst already been discounted after the steep stock market sell off last August?  Ever since an inside out day on October 3 of last year, the Dow Jones has powered higher, ignoring all the bad news and warnings of Armageddon.  Exactly what is going on?

 

Dow Jones - courtesy yahoo.com

The answer is positive for both stocks and gold.  The “collective wisdom” of the markets saw a resolution to the imminent threat of the European debt crisis last fall, and that resolution is known as quantitative easing.  As previously noted in this blog last December, Every Solution To the Euro Crisis Involve Printing Money, which is exactly what happened.  Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve stand ready to print whatever quantity of money is required to paper over the European and U.S. debt crisis.

The massive first phase of the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation advanced about $780 billion to Europe’s insolvent banking system, buying time and postponing the day of reckoning.  The ECB will hold a similar operation in February.

Long term this does little to solve Europe’s fundamental problems, but is short term bullish for stocks and extremely long term bullish for gold and silver.

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Gold Stocks, Silver, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

The Gold Bubble Myth – Investors Remain Underinvested In Gold

January 26, 2012 by 2 Comments

The chronic myth that gold is in a bubble continues to persist, perhaps driven by the fact that gold has risen for the past 11 years.

The mainstream press has float stories year after year that gold was dangerously overpriced and unsuitable for most investors.  This gold bubble mindset, promulgated by “analysts” who have never owned gold has succeeded in keeping the vast majority of investors out of the best performing asset class of the past decade.

Despite every effort by the Federal Reserve to debase the value of the U.S. dollar, an uninformed and gullible public seems content to hold paper dollars which continue to decline in purchasing power.   Worse yet, in an effort to forestall insolvency and reduce the value of debt obligations that are mathematically impossible to repay, the Fed has explicitly adopted a dollar debasement policy.

While the smart money has been moving into gold, the vast majority of investors are under invested in precious metals.  The relatively low demand for gold can be seen from the third quarter gold demand and supply statistics from the World Gold Council.

Total gold demand has remained relatively stable for the past four years at approximately 4,000 tonnes.  Various categories of gold demand such as bar and coin and ETF rose while jewellery demand actually dropped and technology demand remained relatively unchanged.  Total global gold demand of 4,000 tonnes is valued at only about $230 billion.  By comparison the market value of Apple is $415 billion, the market value of IBM is $222 billion and the market value of Microsoft is $248 billion.

Meanwhile, monetary authorities world wide are printing money to prop up governments that have reached the limits of taxation and borrowing abilities.  This, along with the low level of demand for gold tells us that we are not even close to the ultimate highs that will be seen in the gold market.

More on this topic:

Gold Bull Market Could Last Another 20 Year With $12,000 Price Target

Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices

Sources and Demand For Gold

A nifty graphic detailing the sources and demand for gold can be seen below from Trustable Gold, which provides investors with information on gold investment opportunities.

 

Courtesy - trustablegold.com

Filed Under: Bullion Sales, Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Gold Soars As The Fed Explicitly Promises To Debase The U.S. Dollar

January 26, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke hit the panic button today by announcing a specific inflation target, vowing to keep rates at zero until at least 2014 and pledging to offer additional monetary stimulus. The Fed also noted, as it has in the past, that the economy still faces “significant downside risks”.

These actions by the Fed come nearly four years after the financial crisis began in 2008.  During that time, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet to almost $3 trillion, driven real interest rates to negative 1.2% and encouraged lending by flooding the banking system with reserves.  The Fed’s monetary easing was supplemented by trillions of dollars in U.S. deficit financed spending  aimed at restoring economic growth and gluing back together the shattered real estate bubble.

Despite these unprecedented and controversial actions, the economy refuses to rebound.  Collapsing home prices, declining real incomes and an “official” unemployment rate of 8.5% are deflationary and this is what has panicked Bernanke more than anything else.  Deflation is the mortal enemy of a credit fueled, debt burdened economy.  Today’s actions by the Fed show that Bernanke will do whatever is necessary to prevent a deflationary collapse.  Of course, the markets already knew this.

GOLD 01/25/2012 17:15 1710.80 1711.80 +44.40 +2.66% 1648.20 1714.00
SILVER 01/25/2012 17:15 33.27 33.37 +1.22 +3.81% 31.46 33.53

The real reason behind the explosive move up in gold and silver was the historic change in Fed policy with the announcement of an explicitly targeted inflation rate of 2%.   Although the Federal Reserve has been debasing the value of the currency ever since its creation, for the first time ever, currency debasement and financial repression has now become an officially stated policy goal.

 

Gold Explodes - courtesy kitco.com

 

The concept of explicit inflation targeting is dangerous and reckless, which is why it has never been done before.  If the Fed decides that we need 2% inflation today, does the rate go higher later?  How will the Fed know exactly when and exactly how to stop creating inflation?  This is the same Fed run by the same Ben Bernanke who could not identify the biggest credit fueled real estate bubble in history.

Will debt-deleveraging overpower the Fed’s ability to create inflation?   Bloomberg’s Michael Kinsley persuasively tells us, Please Remain Worried About Rising Inflation.

About two years ago I wrote an article saying that despite the lack of evidence, and despite the near-universal belief among economists that it was not a problem, I was worried about inflation. My reason was that I couldn’t see how the government could pay off the massive debt it was running up except by inflating at least part of it away.

For this, I was widely ridiculed, and I’d like to take this opportunity to claim vindication. That is, I’d like to — but I can’t. Inflation (CPI) has been creeping up the past couple of years – – from less than 2 percent to more than 3 percent — but that’s still pretty low. Nevertheless, I double down: Barring a miracle, there will be a fierce storm of inflation sometime in the next few years and it will wipe out a big chunk of the national debt, along with the debts of individual citizens, and the savings of others.

One reason I say this is that the arguments on the other side have shifted. It used to be, “It’s not gonna happen — so don’t worry about it.” Now it’s, “You know, a moderate dose of inflation would be no bad thing. So don’t worry about it.” Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University, is the leading spokesman for this view. He wrote in August that he would like “a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4 percent to 6 percent for several years.” Five years of 5 percent inflation would reduce the value of debts by 27 percent —

It has been four years now, and things are starting to look up a bit. Time to raise taxes or cut spending? Time to stop borrowing? No, not yet (says Krugman). So, when? After eight years? Twelve? Soon you’ll be bumping into the next recession. Or do the annual deficit and the national debt simply not matter? If that’s the case, why do we pay taxes at all?

Although Kinsley cites the example of how “moderate”  inflation of 5% for 5 years would reduce the value of debt by 27%, the obvious corollary would be a decline in the value of the dollar by the same amount.  The U.S. dollar can no longer even pretend to be a store of value, given the new Fed policy of targeted inflation.

The old adage “don’t fight the Fed” is true – and the Fed has just given an all out buy signal on gold.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Did Central Bank Coordinated Easing Also Include Manipulation of The Gold Market?

November 30, 2011 by Leave a Comment

On a day when coordinated central bank monetary easing sent stocks and commodities soaring into orbit, the price action in the gold market was curiously muted.

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all increased by over 4%.  Gains in various S&P sectors ranged from 4.75% for the transportation sector to 7.51% for the financial sector.  Gold, by contrast, rose a mere 2%.

INDEX PERCENTAGE INCREASE
DOW 4.24%
S&P 500 4.33%
NASDAQ 4.17%
S&P 500 DIV FINANCIAL IX 7.51%
S&P 500 AUTO & COMP IDX 6.99%
S&P 500 BANKS INDEX 6.92%
S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX 5.91%
S&P 500 INSURANCE INDEX 5.60%
S&P 500 SEMI & SEMI EQP 5.62%
S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX 5.49%
S&P 500 CAPITAL GDS IDX 5.32%
S&P 500 REAL ESTATE INDX 5.17%
S&P 500 TRANSPTN INDEX 4.75%
GOLD – CLOSING NEW YORK PRICE 1.98%

The massive monetary easing by central banks should have sent the price of gold into the stratosphere.  It has become crystal clear that central banks will continue to create whatever amount of money is necessary to prop up a collapsing, debt saturated system.

Why would central banks collude to restrain the price of gold?  GATA has explored this question in depth and in a recent exchange between Lawrence Williams of Mineweb and GATA, Williams writes  “If one assumes that governments as a matter of course manipulate currency exchange rates, then there is logic in their manipulating the gold price too, as many throughout the world consider gold as money (currency) and a rise in the gold price thus equates to a depreciation in currencies — notably the U.S. dollar.”

Most of the world already suspects that the “emperor has no clothes” when it comes to central bank money creation.  Had the value of gold been allowed to soar hundreds of dollars per ounce today, under free market conditions, the entire crumbling edifice of fiat currencies would have been exposed.

Gold is the only currency that central banks cannot destroy.  If central banks did not suppress the price of gold, the true extent of the debasement of paper  currencies would become blatantly obvious and thereby threaten the entire system of fiat currencies.  Central banks have every motive in the world to suppress the price of gold.  How long they can remain successful at it (as they engage in blatant, massive and world wide money printing) is the question on most gold investors’ minds.

More on this topic:

Where In The World Is The Gold?

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Ron Paul Calls Central Bank Intervention A “Form of World Wide Quantitative Easing”

November 30, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Central banks, spear headed by the U.S. Federal Reserve, launched a massive joint effort to provide liquidity to a European banking system that was teetering on the verge of collapse.

The six central banks involved in the emergency lending program were the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank.  The central bank actions provided European banks with cheap access to  funding through U.S. dollar swap lines.  Under dollar swaps, the U.S. Federal Reserve supplies dollars to foreign central banks which in turn lend the dollars to banks that need U.S. dollars to meet funding needs denominated in U.S. dollars.

In a joint statement, the six central banks said “The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.”  As one European bank after another appeared to be on the verge of collapse, the calls for central bank intervention to “save the world” had become deafening.  Today, the central banks obliged, effectively endorsing the theory that more debt is the solution to the debt crisis.

In an early day interview on CNBC, Ron Paul gave his take on the massive central bank intervention, calling it “a form of worldwide quantitative easing.”

Ron Paul also noted that the central bank actions “penalize the American people” and that the Federal Reserve actions will simply result in “more debt and more inflation.”

Ron Paul said the Fed is doing the same thing that it has done for the past 40 years.  “Spending excessively, running up debt, printing up money, and manipulating interest rates.  We’re up against the wall now, it doesn’t work anymore. Lowering interest rates is essentially impossible.   That’s what they’re desperately trying to do today.  But, you know, when our interest rates to the banks are down to zero, what are they going to do next?  Used to be that Congress would just spend more money and that would help.  How can they spend more money when there’s no more money in the Treasury?”

The answer to Ron Paul’s last question is obvious and should deeply concern every American.  Funding needs of the Treasury will continue to be supplied by the Federal Reserve with printed money and the U.S. currency will continue to lose value.  The rising price of gold has reflected the systematic destruction of our currency.  Based on the predictable response of central banks worldwide to print their way out of the debt disaster, there is effectively no upside limit to the price of gold.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , ,

Gold Demand Soars On Fears Of European Debt Defaults

November 11, 2011 by Leave a Comment

After a sharp September price correction, gold is on track to hit all time highs.  According to a Bloomberg survey, 80% of the forecasters with the most accurate track records are predicting that gold will reach $1,950 by the end of the first quarter.   Investors world wide are fleeing paper currencies as the threat of debt defaults spread across Europe.

Ironically, central bank attempts to stimulate debt burdened economies by lowering interest rates to zero has contributed to the worldwide rush to gold.  Why would investors hold return free government debt with the added risk of principal loss?

As financial turmoil spreads across the globe, gold traders are the most bullish since 2004.

Gold traders and analysts are the most bullish in at least seven years as investors accumulate metal at the fastest pace since August to protect their wealth from a widening European debt crisis.

Gold exceeded $1,800 an ounce for the first time in seven weeks on Nov. 8 and hedge funds are holding their biggest bet on higher prices since mid-September, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The metal is rebounding after tumbling as much as 20 percent in three weeks in September on demand for what are perceived as the safest assets. Almost $9 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May and yields on Italian and Greek bonds rose to euro-era records this week.

“Throughout history gold has protected people from the sort of turmoil that we’re seeing,” said Mark O’Byrne, the Dublin-based executive director of GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. It’s “an important thing to own when there is this sort of volatility in stock markets and concern about currency devaluations.”

Gold climbed 24 percent to $1,766.72 this year, heading for an 11th consecutive annual advance. It’s the second-best performer behind gas oil in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities, which rose 5 percent.

Technical indicators suggest the rally that began in September has further to go. While gold jumped 14 percent since reaching an 11-week low Sept. 26, its 14-day relative-strength index is at 58, below the level of 70 that indicates to some who study technical charts that the metal is poised to drop.

 

Gold - courtesy kitco.com

As discussed previously in this blog, proclamations by the mainstream press after the September gold price correction that the “gold bubble had burst” constituted a contrarian buy signal for gold and silver.  The September correction was simply another opportunity for long term gold investors to add to positions at bargain prices.

The fundamental reasons for owning gold and silver have not changed and are not likely to anytime soon.

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , ,

Ron Paul Blames Destructive Fed Policies For Housing Crash And Economic Bust

October 20, 2011 by 3 Comments

Ron Paul explains better than anyone else the destructive economic forces unleashed by Federal Reserve monetary policies.  According to Paul,  loose monetary policies and manipulation of interest rates has caused “every single boom and bust that has occured in this country since the bank’s creation in 1913.”

In a Wall Street Journal editorial, Ron Paul explains exactly how the Fed has wrecked the economy, why they are clueless for the reasons behind their failures and why further Fed actions will only further exacerbate the problems caused by the Fed in the first place.

Adding new money increases the supply of money, making the price of money over time—the interest rate—lower than the market would make it. These lower interest rates affect the allocation of resources, causing capital to be malinvested throughout the economy. So certain projects and ventures that appear profitable when funded at artificially low interest rates are not in fact the best use of those resources.

Eventually, the economic boom created by the Fed’s actions is found to be unsustainable, and the bust ensues as this malinvested capital manifests itself in a surplus of capital goods, inventory overhangs, etc. Until these misdirected resources are put to a more productive use—the uses the free market actually desires—the economy stagnates.

Yet policy makers at the Federal Reserve still fail to understand the causes of our most recent financial crisis. So they find themselves unable to come up with an adequate solution.

The Fed fails to grasp that an interest rate is a price—the price of time—and that attempting to manipulate that price is as destructive as any other government price control. It fails to see that the price of housing was artificially inflated through the Fed’s monetary pumping during the early 2000s, and that the only way to restore soundness to the housing sector is to allow prices to return to sustainable market levels. Instead, the Fed’s actions have had one aim—to keep prices elevated at bubble levels—thus ensuring that bad debt remains on the books and failing firms remain in business, albatrosses around the market’s neck.

If the Fed would stop intervening and distorting the market, and would allow the functioning of a truly free market that deals with profit and loss, our economy could recover. The continued existence of an organization that can create trillions of dollars out of thin air to purchase financial assets and prop up a fundamentally insolvent banking system is a black mark on an economy that professes to be free.

Fed policies have pushed the U.S. and global economies to the precipice of a full blown depression.  What are the odds that they  reverse course and follow Ron Paul’s recommendations?  Zero, in my opinion.  Bernanke still believes in the fantasy illusion that creating more dollars at zero interest rates will somehow ignite economic growth.  The Fed blindly ignores the fact that in all of recorded human history, once great powers that incurred massive debt loads have all failed.

Ron Paul concludes that the Fed will continue its self defeating policies because of  the pressure to “just do something”.  And right on cue, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder recommends (in his own concurrent Journal editorial) that the U.S. government needs to incur whatever amount of debt is necessary to cure the housing crisis.  Blinder’s idiotic recommendation comes on the heels of previous failed and costly housing programs that cost billions and futher delayed the recovery in housing by keeping unqualified homeowners in homes they can’t afford to be in.

Here’s Blinder’s advice on How to Clean Up The Housing Mess, which is the exact opposite of Ron Paul’s free market solutions.

Given the huge magnitude of the aggregate gap between house values and mortgage balances, a comprehensive anti-foreclosure solution requires hundreds of billions of dollars.

So what can be done now? There is no silver bullet; we need different remedies for different types of (actual or prospective) foreclosures. And to succeed, we must overcome the three barriers. Foreclosure mitigation is expensive. It will encounter political resistance. It probably requires bending some property rights.

Blinder’s new spending plans and previous similar ones have cost the Government trillions, tremendously debased the dollar and accomplished nothing except to make the case for owning gold even more compelling.

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , ,

Gold’s Long Term Trend Is Up As America Commits Suicide

October 18, 2011 by 1 Comment

Every bull market has pullbacks.  Sharp sell offs can generate fear and panic, causing investors to sell at the worse possible time.

Steep and sudden price declines are  characteristic of any long term bull market.  Speculators and investors with short term perspectives wind up selling instead of adding to positions during the buying opportunity that arises from panic selling.

The great bull market in stocks, which lasted from the early 1980’s to 2000, provides a classic case of a sell off that proved to be a great buying opportunity.  On October 19, 1987, a day now referred to as Black Monday, the Dow collapsed in a sea of sell orders that left the Dow down by 508 points for a shocking loss of almost 23% in one day.

The loss on the Dow was the largest in history, causing panic among investors.  After Black Monday, a group of the world’s foremost economists unanimously predicted an economic downturn similar to the 1930’s.

Although the exact cause of the Crash of 1987 is still being debated, those who stayed in the market and used the sell off to add to positions, went on to enjoy one of the greatest bull markets in history.  Anyone gazing at a long term price chart of the Dow has to squint to see the Crash of 1987 that transpired during the super 20 year bull market that finally ended in 2000.

 

DOW JONES - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

We have recently witnessed what some are referring to as a “crash” in the gold market, with bullion dropping suddenly by $300 per ounce.   Although a rapid depreciation in the price of gold by over 15% can be painful, especially if new positions were initiated prior to the sell off, the decline should be of minor concern to long term gold investors.  The fundamental reasons for owning gold have not changed.  Investors in the gold market today are being given an opportunity similar to that offered to stock investors in late 1987.

Gold is the only defense against fiat currencies which all ultimately fail and the day of reckoning may be sooner than many think. In his new book “Suicide Of A Superpower”, Patrick Buchanan makes a compelling case that America could collapse financially before 2025.  In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News (see video link below), Buchanan argues that:

  • America’s problems are “deep and endemic”.
  • Half of the American population are “tax consumers” rather than tax payers and thus have no incentive to support reduced government spending.
  • American society has lost its moral foundations and its sense of right and wrong.
  • The widely different views of the major political parties cannot be reconciled and America thus faces a “Balkanization” that will further contribute to the breakdown of American society.
  • America will soon become California – bankrupted by the demands of “tax consumers” who will always demand more.  By virtue of their majority status, the “tax consumers” will elect politicians who promise them the most, thus ensuring the bankruptcy of America.

The decline of America that Buchanan warns about is already well underway. From a long term perspective, that is all gold investors really need to know.

Audio Link to Suicide Of A Superpower narrated by Patrick Buchanan.

 

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