April 26, 2024

75% Of Americans Believe The Fed Should Be Audited – Why It Won’t Happen

Most Americans under 30 have a strange sense of unease that something is very wrong with the way things are going in America.  If you are 60 or older and can remember with nostalgia how life in America was prior to the days of blatant  and corrupt crony capitalism, you know for sure we are heading in a very wrong direction at an accelerating pace.

I can remember the days when the average worker could support his family without putting his wife to work, without having to give up on having children, without having to worry about banks going under, without having to worry about an implosion of the financial system and without the expectation that the government would provide handouts to solve every little one of life’s problems.

Gradually, it has begun to dawn on the average American of all ages that the Federal Reserve may be at the heart of the nation’s financial problems.  Much has been written about this, but two graphs sum up the situation quite nicely.  Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the value of the dollar has declined to a fraction of what it was once worth and since the abandonment of the gold standard, government debt has reached levels that are no longer sustainable without further debasement of the paper dollar.  The American public is beginning to connect the dots.

Ron Paul has been a lonely voice in spreading the message about the Fed but has finally reached a milestone with the House passage of his proposed “Audit The Fed” legislation.  In an update Ron Paul notes that 75% of the American public supports his bill according to a recent poll.

Last week the House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed my legislation calling for a full and effective audit of the Federal Reserve.  Well over 300 of my Congressional colleagues supported the bill, each casting a landmark vote that marks the culmination of decades of work.  We have taken a big step toward bringing transparency to the most destructive financial institution in the world.

But in many ways our work is only beginning.  Despite the Senate Majority Leader’s past support for similar legislation, no vote has been scheduled on my bill this year in the Senate.  And only 29 Senators have cosponsored Senator Rand Paul’s version of my bill in the other body.  If your Senator is not listed at the link above, please contact them and ask for their support.  We need to push Senate leadership to hold a vote this year.

Understand that last week’s historic vote never would have taken place without the efforts of millions of Americans like you, ordinary citizens concerned about liberty and the integrity of our currency.  Political elites respond to political pressure, pure and simple.  They follow rather than lead.  If all 100 Senators feel enough grassroots pressure, they will respond and force Senate leadership to hold what will be a very popular vote.

In fact, “Audit the Fed” is so popular that 75% of all Americans support it according to this Rasmussen poll.  We are making progress.

Of course Fed apologists– including Mr. Bernanke– frequently insist that the Fed already is audited.  But this is true only in the sense that it produces annual financial statements.  It provides the public with its balance sheet as a fait accompli: we see only the net results of its financial transactions from the previous fiscal year in broad categories, and only after the fact.

We’re also told that the Dodd-Frank bill passed in 2010 mandates an audit.  But it provides for only a limited audit of certain Fed credit facilities surrounding the crisis period of 2008.  It is backward looking, which frankly is of limited benefit.

The Fed also claims it wants to be “independent” from Congress so that politics don’t interfere with monetary policy.  This is absurd for two reasons.

First, the Fed already is inherently and unavoidably political.  It made a political decision when it chose not to rescue Lehman Brothers in 2008, just as it made a political decision to provide liquidity for AIG in the same time period. These are just two obvious examples.  Also Fed member banks and the Treasury Department are full of former– and future– Goldman Sachs officials.  Are we really to believe that the interests of Goldman Sachs have absolutely no effect on Fed decisions? Clearly it’s naïve to think the Fed somehow is above political or financial influence.

Second, it’s important to remember that Congress created the Fed by statute.  Congress therefore has the full, inherent authority to regulate the Fed in any way– up to and including abolishing it altogether.

My bill provides for an ongoing, thorough audit of what the Fed really does in secret, which is make decisions about the money supply, interest rates, and bailouts of favored banks, financial firms, and companies.  In other words, I want the Government Accountability Office to examine the Fed’s actual monetary policy operations and make them public.

It is precisely this information that must be made public because it so profoundly affects everyone who holds, saves, or uses US dollars.

Will the bill pass the senate, considering the incestuous and corrupt self dealing relationships between too big to fail banks, government and politicians?  Probably not in our lifetimes, but at least public awareness of the problem is growing.  Ron Paul might have added in his update that the vast majority of Americans no longer believe they are ruled with the consent of the governed.

Gold Bullion Coin Sales Up 13% In June, Silver Bullion Coin Sales Remain Steady

According to the latest report from the U.S. Mint, sales of gold bullion coins increased by over 13% during June, while total sales of the silver bullion coins were essentially unchanged from May.

Monthly sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin have fluctuated considerably during 2012 with sales reaching a monthly high of 127,000 ounces in January and a monthly low of 20,000 ounces in April.  Sales rebounded strongly in May to 53,000 ounces and continued higher in June with the sale of 60,000 ounces.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin can vary dramatically from month to month based on many factors.  The all time yearly sales record for the gold bullion coins of 1,435,000 ounces was reached in 2009  when many people feared that the financial system would collapse.  Sales volume of the gold bullion coins have not, however, had a direct correlation to the price of gold.  Gold closed 2009 at $1,087.50 per ounce and subsequently went on to hit a 2011 high of $1,895 on September 5th.  Despite the fact that gold increased by over 74% since year end 2009, total gold bullion coin sales declined in both 2010 and 2011.

If the European financial storm continues to unwind into a collapse similar to what we experienced in 2008, sales of the gold bullion coins could easily expand dramatically over the record levels seen in 2009.  With each passing day, there seem to be fewer reasons to maintain confidence in the paper money system as central bankers and governments attempt to prop up a debt burdened world economy with additional debt and money printing.

Listed below are the yearly sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins since 2000.  The total for 2012 is through June 30th.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 343,500
Total 7,593,000

If the sales trend of American gold bullion coins continues on the pace it has been on thus far, 2012 may turn out to be the fourth year in a row of lower sales.  The graph below shows gold bullion coin sales since 2000 with figures for 2012 annualized based on sales through June 30th.

U.S. Mint sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coin continued strong in June at 2,858,000 ounces, down slightly from the May total of 2,875,000 ounces.  After a strong start in January with sales of over 6 million ounces, sales dipped below 2 million ounces in February and April.  Year to date sales through June 2012 of the silver bullion coins total 17,392,000 ounces, down by 22% from the comparable sales period in 2011 when 22,303,500 ounces were sold.

If sales of the silver bullion coins continue at the same pace for the remainder of 2012, total sales could exceed 34 million ounces, not far below the record set during 2011 of 39.9 million ounces.   Considering that silver has corrected in price from $48.70 reached during April of 2011, the volume of silver bullion coin sales is very robust, with buyers taking advantage of lower prices.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins, the U.S. Mint sells numismatic series of both gold and silver American Eagle coins which the public can purchase directly from the U.S. Mint.  Bullion versions of the gold and silver American Eagles are only sold to Authorized Purchasers who in turn resell the product to the general public and other dealers.

Total annual U.S. Mint sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000 are shown below.  Sales totals for 2012 are through June 30th.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 17,392,000
TOTAL 215,792,500

FDIC Assigns Gold A “Zero Risk Rating” When Calculating Bank Capital

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke refuses to acknowledge that gold is money, another major regulatory agency views the value of gold money as a risk free asset for calculation of Tier 1 regulatory capital by banks.   Meanwhile, as Ben Bernanke dismisses the value of gold, other central  banks around the world continue to increase gold reserves.  As the world financial system spirals closer to a complete breakdown, it is the holders of paper currencies that are squarely placed at the highest point of the risk spectrum.

TDV Golden Trader examines the current state of the financial system, the role of gold in wealth preservation and suggestions for protecting your gold from government confiscation.

Gold Becomes a Tier 1 Asset Class for Banks

Despite what the Main Stream Media (MSM) or “Financial Pundits” tell you, the gold bull market is far from over.  In fact, it is just starting, in our opinion.  While the misdirected financial world tell you that gold is in a bubble and it has burst, the central bankers and government organizations all know it is far from over.  In fact, gold is moving towards the banking system and not away from it.  We all know that many central banks are now net buyers of gold and their holdings are increasing as their need to diversify away from risky assets and foreign bonds only grows.

Central banks around the world are continuing to stock up on gold. We can now add Kazakhstan’s central bank to the grow list of bankers wanting to hold gold as a part of their currency reserve.  The Kazakh central bank intends to have 20% of reserves in gold, this is up from the current 14-15% currently held.  They plan to purchase 20 tonnes of gold this year, mostly from local producers.  They also mentioned a few weeks ago that they would cut their Euro holding to 25 % from 30%.  We can also add Kazakhstan to the growing number of central bankers which are building up gold holdings including China, Russia, Mexico, Colombia and South Korea.

The price of gold is now hitting all time highs in India, one of the biggest buyers of gold around the world.  Prices have reached an all-time high of $544.74 US (Rs 30420) per 10 grams.  With a slowing economy and low demand for the Indian rupee, it has been losing value lately and still remains weak.   However, gold demand is still robust even at these elevated prices as investors in India still consider gold a safe haven as it counters the effects of inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.

Over the past five years, gold has provided Indian investors with a 27.19% annualized return versus a pathetic 2.67% in the equity market.  This trend and move to gold has only grown in the last year.  Gold assets under management by funds have increased almost 100% $1.83 billion by April 2012, last year the value was $981 million.  In 2011, the gold ETFs in India saw a net inflow of $725 million.  For thousands of years the Indian culture has had an affinity for gold, and that will never change, and neither will their demand for physical at elevated prices.  Why?  Indians understand that gold is money and a true form of saving.  It’s the only way to protect assets and wealth from government theft, something the West is still learning.

Even the good ol’ USSA is starting to recognize gold as a tier one asset class. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) just issued a notice regarding a new policy proposal on how banks should revise the measurement of risk-weighted assets by implementing changes made by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to international regulatory capital standards and by implementing aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act.  Under the proposal the following assets would carry a zero percent risk weighting, notice how gold bullion is listed as the second item:

A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

  • Cash;
  • Gold bullion
  • Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
  • Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).

So regardless of what the MSM says, we continue to see more central bankers buying and hoarding gold.  New proposals by government banking agencies are being introduced into the system and gold is included as a tier one asset to hold with ZERO RISK.  All the signs are in place and what the MSM hasn’t been told yet is that gold is coming back into the banking system.

We are in a world where currency wars are being fought daily, and as the system continues to collapse under its own weight of paper printing, gold will be the go to asset and possibly the last man standing.  Don’t be fooled by what the MSM says, they rarely know what they are talking about and are paid to misdirect the puppets. Gold is here to stay.

European Capital Controls and a Flight to Safety

The Greek Elections are over and the pro-bailout New Democracy party won with approximately 29.7% of the vote.  By winning the popular vote, they were given a 50-seat bonus.  This combined with the support of the Pasok Socialist (who took 12.3% of the vote), will have 162 seats in the 300 seat parliament.  Combined, they have the ability to pass government policy with a majority vote, so they can now rig policy for keeping with the Euro.

The Euro experiment may have been saved from breaking up for now, but the bailouts will continue for the foreseeable future.  Since the socialists are realizing that austerity is not working, a new movement and calls for a policy of growth are afoot.  We can expect lots more money printing coming out of Europe now and in the foreseeable future.   While in a normal world that would hurt the Euro, the markets relief that the Euro will not collapse immediately should stop the downward pressure on the Euro. In fact, we could see a slight bounce off the recent lows from this news, but I suspect that will be short lived.  None of the problems have been addressed and printing money to fund the bailout will still be the cure central bankers will prescribe to the Euro financial system mess.

Capital controls are already in place within Euroland and this trend is growing quickly as the hot days of summer go on.  Recently, major Italian banks have given notice that customer’s accounts would be frozen for one month because of financial difficulties. This caught many bank customers off guard and completely unaware that they would not have access to their funds.  This should not be startling news for TDV subscribers as we have been warning for months that capital controls are coming and Europe is fast out of the gates in implementation.  For weeks, Europe has been planning bank withdrawal restriction to deal with Greece exit, the only one that hasn’t told you about it is the MSM.

Recently, a businessman was stopped at the Swiss border with £1.6m worth of gold in his car only to have it confiscated by the authorities and was subsequently charged with smuggling.  Italians know very well that the trend of confiscation by the “Mafia” government has only grown recently.  They have been exporting gold to Switzerland and this trend has grown 35% year over year in February 2012.  About 120 tonnes of gold have left Italian boarder in 2011, that is up 65% from 2010.  The Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has been promising a crackdown on tax evasion as he continues to fight the trend of people wanting to avoid paying extortion fees (taxes).  It was estimated that more than £96 billion [€119.6bn] in taxes were dodged in Italy during 2009.

As much as we like gold as an investment and store of wealth, you must take the necessary precaution of protecting your gold from confiscation.  As desperate European governments continue to steal your wealth via inflation and outright theft, you must create a plan of protecting your gold.  Keeping it close at hand where only you have access to it is the first step.

Secondly, you should consider diversifying your precious metals holding internationally, which seems to be more difficult as capital controls in Euroland become stricter.  At TDV, we saw this trend coming a long time ago and have been warning subscribers to plan ahead.  Earlier this year, we published a 100 page report on how to diversify and internationalize your precious metals holding called Getting Your Gold Out Of Dodge (GYGOOD).  If you live in Europe and are interested in protecting your precious metals, this report is something you should consider getting right away; your time to act may be limited by your own government.

Gold Update

The price of gold is still consolidating.   The price needs to stay above support at the 50 dma of $1615.  If this support holds, then it could move toward resistance at $1675 and the 200 dma.  A break below $1610 could trigger selling and the price could still see one more wave of selling to test support at $1530 or slightly lower again.   If we do get one more wave of selling, I suggest you consider backing up the truck as this could be that last time we see prices this low, possibly forever.

Gold, Dow and Oil All Plunge On Economic Weakness – Is Gold Still A Safe Haven?

The combination of increasingly ominous economic reports along with the Fed’s failure to announce bold new monetary initiatives resulted in a brutal reassessment of risk by investors.  Stock, commodity and precious metal markets all plunged with the Dow down 250 points, gold down by $41.60 per ounce  to $1,566 and silver off by 4.4% to $26.98.  Crude oil in New York trading was off 4%, dropping below $80 a barrel for the first time in eight months.

Since the end of May, the Dow had rallied over 700 points on rumors of massive coordinated central bank easing.  Investor optimism changed in a flash after yesterday’s FOMC announcement that Operation Twist would continue in an effort to further reduce long term interest rates.  Markets were clearly expecting more concerted action.  The Fed has already suppressed interest rates to all time lows with little to show for it.  In addition, the crisis in the Europe is on the verge of spinning out of control as insolvent sovereign states comically attempt to bail out insolvent banks.

The steep sell offs in oil and other commodities since early May have been a screaming warning sign of a steep slowdown in the global economy.   Further adding to investor concerns is the inability of policy makers to address fundamental economic problems that have beset the global economy since 2008.  Government borrowing, spending and a storm of money printing  has only made the fundamental problem of excessive debt burdens worse.  Now, as the world rapidly slides back into recession, we have to wonder – where do we go from here?

 

Oil - courtesy stockcharts.com

Gold - courtesy stockcharts.com

Despite Bernanke’s frequent remarks that “We stand ready to act” and his assertion that the Fed has many “tools in the toolbox”, the worst nightmare seems to be unfolding – a Fed that is out of options (or out of touch) as the world economy marches to the brink of a financial meltdown.

Will the world slide into a deflationary abyss as central banks stand aside and allow free markets to clear the debt excesses of the past two decades?  Not likely based on the entire history of the Federal Reserve.  What is highly likely, however, is that as the United States reaches the limits of credit expansion and taxation, neither the public nor our elected politicians will accept austerity as the road to restructuring the economy and national balance sheet.   Reality be damned as we reach the tipping point – the public will demand their entitlements and the politicians who resist will be voted from office.  The pressure on the central bank to “solve” our economic problems through an endless series of QE follies will result in a national financial nightmare.

Where does gold go from here as the world financial system totters on the brink?  No one can predict the short term moves in gold, but in a very uncertain world, there is one undeniable  dictum – “Gold is money.  Everything else is credit.”  (JP Morgan -1912).

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Rebound Strongly In May

According to the latest report from the U.S. Mint, sales of both gold and silver bullion coins rebounded strongly during May.

Sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins during April had declined to only 20,000 ounces, the lowest monthly sales since June 2008 when 15,500 ounces were sold.  During May, the U.S. Mint sold 50,000 ounces of gold bullion coins, up 150% from April sales of 20,000 ounces.

The monthly sales figures for bullion coins can vary dramatically for a number of reasons, but support for the increase in demand during May may be due to the recent pullback in gold prices.  During May, the closing London PM Fix Price for gold declined by 6.3% from $1,664 to $1,558 per ounce.  Through the end of May, gold has declined by $40 from $1,598 at the beginning of 2012.  Gold reached a 2012 high of $1,781 on February 28th.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins hit a record high during the financial turmoil of 2009 as investors eagerly purchased 1,435,000 ounces of gold.  Ironically, sales of gold declined during the next two years despite the fact that the financial system has become more unstable as sovereign governments worldwide continue to borrow and print fiat money on an unprecedented scale in an effort to prop up a world economy burdened by unsustainable debt levels and nonexistent economic growth.  The ongoing simultaneous collapse of the banking systems and economies of the Eurozone is the most obvious trigger for the next phase of the financial crisis.  As confidence in paper money evaporates, expect gold to soar as investors stampede into the only currency that governments cannot debase.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 280,500
Total 7,530,000
Note: 2012 totals through May 31, 2012

Sales by the U.S. Mint of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins for May almost doubled from the previous month.  Total sales of  silver bullion coins for May totaled 2,750,000 ounces, up 81% from sales of 1,520,000 ounces in April.  Year to date sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins through May 31st came in at 14,409,000, down by 23.8% from the first five months of 2011.  Sales of the silver bullion coins reached all an all time high during 2011.   Since reaching a multi decades high of $48.70 during April of 2011, silver has since corrected, closing out the month of May 2012 at $28.10.

Total annual U.S. Mint sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000 are shown below.  Sales totals for 2012 are through May 31.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins, the U.S. Mint also sells numismatic versions (uncirculated and proof) of gold and silver American Eagle coins which can be purchased by the public directly from the U.S. Mint.  Gold and silver bullion coins are sold by the U.S. Mint only to authorized purchasers who in turn resell them to the general public and secondary retailers.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 14,409,000
TOTAL 212,809,500

Correction In Gold and Gold Stocks Spells Opportunity For Long Term Investors

It is no secret that the price of gold has been declining since reaching almost $2,000 per ounce last year.   After rallying in the early part of the year, gold prices have now fallen to $1,556, representing a decline of $42 per ounce or 2.6% below the closing price on the first trading day of 2012.

The devastating declines in the stock prices of major gold mining companies since early 2012 have been far out of proportion to the decline in the price of gold bullion.  Viewing the gold stocks in isolation, one would assume that the price of gold had collapsed by hundreds of dollars per ounce.

While opinions vary on where we go from here, the deeply bearish price action and bearish press articles on gold and gold stocks lead this writer to believe that we are setting the groundwork for a major rally at some point in the future.  Actions by global central banks to prevent a collapse of the financial system via the creation of oceans of newly printed paper currencies leads to the inevitable conclusion that at some point gold and gold stocks will soar far beyond the most bullish gold price forecasts.  As always, however, the question is the timing of gold’s ascent.

TDV Golden Trader has examined the current factors impacting the gold market and cautions that a return to new highs in gold, gold stocks and silver, although inevitable, may not be imminent.

Is This The Bottom For Gold and Gold Stocks? Not So Fast…

Since the speculative highs of 2011, the precious metals are continuing to correct and head lower, even in the face of Operation Twist and the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) printing.  And with the elections in France and even more socialism on its way, it looks like Euroland is ready to run the printing press again and the Fed will join the party. But I am not convinced that gold and silver will take off right away.  Everyone knows that the central banksters are running the printing presses on overtime, so in effect, we always had and always will have QE, yet the price of the metals continues to drift lower.

When comparing the 2007-2008 peak and crash to what we are dealing with now, I think we have to look beyond the chart patterns and timing.  Looking at market conditions and sentiment for clues to turning points is just as important.  Back in ’08 we had a liquidity event which caused the nose dive in the markets.  Once the system was liquefied by TARP and then QE, the precious metals came bouncing back fairly quickly and then went on to make new highs right after QE2.

We appear to be in a period where the gold price will not run away quickly anytime soon, but we are also in the midst of a long drawn out liquidation of the metals as the central banksters keep accumulating gold at lower prices. Many central banks have been net buyers and importers of gold, and that trend looks sure to continue.  So, where is the selling coming from?

FROM WHERE COMES THE SELLING?

The paper selling we are witnessing is most likely squeezing the weak hands into coughing up their gold. Hopefully it’s only paper gold that is getting liquidated.  Investors in gold and silver may get frustrated and then capitulate into selling as the paper pushers continue to force them out of their positions.  But there are two potential catalysts that could reverse this trend:

1. If the shorts are forced to cover their position and decide to jump on the long side
2. The paper traders are forced to deliver the physical, which will most likely never happen.

Black swans are always lurking in the background, but they have yet to rear their ugly heads and the gold market is not anticipating any of them at the moment.  Until they appear, the precious metals may continue to drift lower.

The metals have been in a great bull run for the last decade.  But, what we haven’t seen yet is a 1974 style peak and trough that lasts for a couple of years. That is where we could be heading with precious metals right now.  In September of 2011, the price of gold peaked over $1900 and ever since then has been correcting lower (now almost nine months later).  During 1974 the peak price was just under $200 at which point it went into a tail spin falling to just above $100 in the summer of 1976.  After the negative trend continued for almost 2 years and then a sideways base during 1977, the gold bull market raced to its 1980 high around $850.

Until we see the fundamental shift back to gold, we are more than likely to continue correcting and then build a base just like in the mid 1970s.  The one thing to note is that gold peaked in early 1974, corrected for about six months and then went on to make a high by the end of 1974 before the major correction started that lasted almost two years. If a similar scenario plays out, then the correction we are currently in may end at the support and third test of the $1550 price range.  If this is the case, we could see a strong rally which would take the price of gold right back up to $1900 or higher before starting another bear phase in the long term bull market.

THE END MAY NOT BE NEAR

This standstill could last for some time still.  Especially since all the “speculators” are getting wrung out of the system as they have been taken to the cleaners in the last year.  More than likely, the average investor will stay away from precious metals until we have a major currency crisis.  Something that is more than just the problems that we currently see in Euroland. Until then we can expect the downtrend to continue and move sideways. If this scenario plays out like it did in the mid 1970s, we could still be in a period of time where the gold price continues to correct lower. This could bring the price of gold towards $1200-$1400 in the coming year.

If gold can hold support at $1530, then this correction may be over and the price of gold will continue higher toward the end of this year or early next year.  If the broader stock market continues to sell off, the Fed may pull the trigger on more easing, which could reverse gold’s negative trend and then we are looking at a target price of around $2100.

There seems to be no consensus among investors or analysts on which way the price of gold will go from here. But if the mid 1970s bull market in gold is any guide, be mentally prepared for a lower price. Then be ready to take advantage of the coming basing period and average down on your physical holdings at these lower prices. If the correction is over and we get a strong bounce from here, expect higher prices and a much better opportunity to sell.  We are currently in the eye of the storm of The End Of The Montetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI).  The pain is not over yet and neither is this gold bull market, the looming currency and debt crisis will make sure of that.  Just remember that the hardest thing to do as a trader and investor is to stay long for the full extent of the bull market.  This rough patch is again testing the mettle of investors.

THE TDV GOLDEN TRADER STRATEGY AND OUTLOOK

We have been lucky to have played the last six months almost perfectly.  We were strong buyers of the junior gold stocks throughout December and then after they rose significantly on March 2nd we issued a dispatch to TDV Golden Trader subscribers entitled, “Trade Alert: Close Out Many Of Our Trading Positions”.  We sold most of our trading positions on that day… something that has worked out tremendously well as shown by the chart of Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ).

Will this be the bottom?  Nobody knows.  But we are remaining patient and waiting until we see the whites of their eyes before we reload and buy back in.  In the meantime we are advising subscribers to do the same and looking for stink bid opportunities to buy some of our favorite gold stocks at ludicrously low prices should a seller need to get out in an illiquid market.

The Gold Barbarians Talk Back

According to Warren Buffett, the decade long rally in gold has been based solely on fear and the greater fool theory.  Buffett, believed by many to be one of the greatest investors of all time, has gone out of his way lately to ridicule gold investors.

In his recent 2011 Letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett notes that the purchasing power of the dollar “has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965”.  According to Buffett, the three major investment categories available to investors  are productive assets (such as stocks), currency based investments (such as bonds and bank deposits) and assets that will “never produce anything” (such as gold).

Buffett’s clear preference is to own productive assets.  Currency based investments are “the most dangerous of assets” according to Buffett and gold (the major asset  in the category of investments that  “will never produce anything”) is described as follows in Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders.

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further.  Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.  True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis.  As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.

Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice-Chairman, in a recent CNBC interview, expounded on Buffett’s gold comments by stating that “Civilized people don’t buy gold.  They invest in productive businesses.”  By essentially calling gold investors “barbarians”, Munger turned things up a notch which elicited very compelling counterpoints from around the blogosphere.

The Munger Games – New York Sun

The fact is that people who bought gold a decade ago were far better positioned than those who put their money in Mr. Munger’s company, Berkshire Hathaway. For the value of a share of Berkshire Hathaway has collapsed over the past decade to barely more than 74 ounces of gold from the 238 ounces it was worth a decade ago.

Hmmm. Was it Ayn Rand on which Mr. Greenspan overdosed? In 1966, the future Fed chairman wrote for her newsletter an essay called “Gold and Economic Freedom.” It begins with the sentence “An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense — perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire — that gold and economic freedom are inseparable. . .”The essay ends with the assertion that “[i]n the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation” and that “[t]he financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.”

And maybe the reason that Berkshire Hathaway shares have collapsed in value is that neither he nor Mr. Munger were paying attention to the civilizing effect of gold and economic freedom.

Financial Lexicon – “Civilized People Don’t Buy Gold”

For reasons about which a doctoral thesis could likely be written, humans have a long history of completely mismanaging fiat currencies. Throughout the countless historical examples of the leaders of nations destroying the value of that nation’s currency, gold, as a store of value, has stood the test of time.

Being aware of the historical inability of those who run nations to manage a fiat currency over an extended period of time without eventually destroying the purchasing power of the people is something that certain investors might not appreciate, understand, or care about. Warren Buffett admits that he won’t invest in things he doesn’t understand. And based on his and his colleague Mr. Munger’s comments on gold (not just the ones quoted in this article), it is quite clear they do not understand gold. Hence, they do not invest in it.

Warren Buffett clearly missed the first ten years of the gold bull market and his disdain for gold prevented him from achieving his primary investment goal of preserving purchasing power for his shareholders.  Over the past decade, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has underperformed both gold bullion and gold stocks.

Courtesy bigcharts.com

After over 10 years of being wrong, Buffett faces a major dilemma.  Can he afford to continue rejecting the one asset class able to escape the government’s pernicious efforts to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar?

Fed Manipulating Markets In Zero Sum Game To Create Higher Inflation

Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney recently said that “You know, I’m not willing to light my hair on fire to try and get support. I am who I am.”  If only the Federal Reserve Chairman could be so restrained.  Based on recent comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke, it seems likely that he would gladly set both his hair and beard on fire in order to accomplish his mutually exclusive goals of increasing employment while maintaining price stability.

With a stubbornly high rate of unemployment, massive fiscal deficits, very slow economic growth, declining incomes and debt levels that are strangling the U.S. consumer, the Fed is facing a quandary.  How can economic growth be stimulated without simultaneously igniting inflation?

Lower interest rates, the most powerful tool in the Fed’s arsenal, has already been fully exploited while providing  a zero net benefit for consumers.  The zero sum game of lower rates did not prevent the housing market from crashing, has not helped it to recover and has resulted in dramatically reducing interest income for millions of consumers.  Every dollar of interest saved by one consumer means one less dollar of income for savers, many of them retirees who suddenly have seen their CD rates drop to near zero.

With rates at zero, the Fed is now forced to use the last resort option of QE, risking higher inflation as it stokes the economy with digitally created dollar bills.  Increased inflation is the high risk option that the Fed is willing to take as explained in  Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation as Fed Seeks to Boost Employment.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spent six years pushing for an inflation goal. Now that he has it, some investors are betting he’ll breach the 2 percent target in the short run to lower unemployment.

“The chairman seemed to suggest they will tolerate a misdemeanor on inflation as unemployment continues to fall toward their goal” over several years, said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital, a hedge fund that manages $250 million in Washington.

Policy makers at a March 13 meeting probably won’t deviate from their commitment to hold the main interest rate close to zero at least through late 2014, even if their forecast shows a burst of energy-driven inflation, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. They’ll probably be more concerned that rising prices will hold back real spending, impeding growth and improvement in the job market, he said.

Crude oil prices have risen 32 percent since the end of the third quarter of 2011 and 6 percent this year. Energy prices could hold the Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation target benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index, above the Fed’s 2 percent inflation objective for much of 2012, Crandall said. The PCE rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending in January.

Also, workers have weak leverage for increasing wages to compensate for higher costs. Real average weekly earnings have fallen for 10 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. As energy costs eat up more of consumer expenditures, companies have difficulty raising prices on other goods and services.

“To the extent that PCE inflation is somewhere around 3 percent while unemployment is still above 8 percent, I think there will still be no reaction from the Fed,” said Worah, who’s based in Newport Beach, California.

The expectation among investors that the Fed will allow for a temporary overshoot on the price goal has been “unambiguously bullish” for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, Worah said.

Gold, up 18% over just the past year, is also telling us that the Fed is likely to shoot past its goal of attaining a 2% inflation rate.  Furthermore, the Fed’s goal of accepting increased inflation as an acceptable risk for increased economic growth is a self defeating zero sum game.  By driving up inflation, the Fed has increased living costs for the average consumer, negating any positive net affect from stronger economic growth. Consumers, whose spending makes up 70% of GDP, ultimately can’t spend more without real income growth.

In an interview with CNBC, Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and a frequent critic of destructive Federal Reserve monetary policies, says the Fed is manipulating interest rates for the sake of achieving “desirable macro outcomes”.  Discussing the Fed’s latest scheme to expand money printing, known as “sterilized bond-buying”, Grant says he is uncomfortable with the program which will create inflation and distortions that will destabilize the entire debt market.

Grant also feels that Bernanke, a self proclaimed “expert’ on the depression of the 1930’s is making fundamentally flawed decisions to forestall Depression II that many feel is looming in front of us.  According to Grant, Bernanke can’t “stop talking about the ’30s”, but when the economy fell off a cliff in 1920 – 1921, the government actually balanced the budget and the Fed raised interest rates and the economy soon recovered on its own and not due to running “immense deficits”.

The full interview with Grant is worth listening to. Please click on this link if the video below does not play.


The Fed has only one hand left to play and it will continue to print money, a fact that has not gone unrecognized by the gold and precious metals markets.

Bernanke Broods Over New Ways To Print Money – Waiting For Gold To Explode

Perhaps it was the realization that the U.S. Federal Reserve was losing to the ECB in the money printing race.  Perhaps it was the realization that the only way to prevent a debt imperiled economy from imploding was by supplying new doses of the only remedy left in the Fed’s medicine bag.  In any event, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke made it clear today that his determination to continue quantitative easing has not diminished.

In an effort to silence critics who equate QE with currency debasement and inflation, the Chairman has come up with an improved version of QE that will boost the economy without creating inflation or boosting oil prices – in effect, the modern equivalent of turning lead into gold.  The new and improved version of QE even comes with a new and impressive sounding moniker -“sterilized bond-buying”.

The Wall Street Journal’s explanation of how this new money creation engine of the Fed would actually work probably left many lesser mortals scratching their heads.  See if you can follow how new money creation by the Fed creates wealth and prosperity, while maintaining a sound dollar and zero risk of inflation blow-back.

Third, in the new novel approach, the Fed could print money to buy long-term bonds, but restrict how investors and banks use that money by employing new market tools they have designed to better manage cash sloshing around in the financial system. This is known as “sterilized” QE.

The Fed’s objective under any of these programs would be to reduce the holdings of long-term securities in the hands of investors and banks. The Fed believes that reducing the amount of long-term bonds in the hands of investors drives down long-term interest rates, encourages more risk-taking, and thus spurs spending and investment by households and businesses.

Under the third approach, the Fed would create new money as it buys long-term bonds. But then it would effectively lock up the money rather than letting it loose in the broader economy. The Fed would do this by borrowing the money back from investors for short periods—say, 28 days—in exchange for some low interest rate it would pay investors.

Will this new genius wealth creation mechanism of the Fed actually work or will it wind up driving gold into the stratosphere as the average American finally begins to realize that not only does the Emperor have no clothes, but that he is also delusional?

Here’s the take on the new and improved QE (sorry, I meant to say “sterilized bond-buying”) by astute observer Jim Sinclair, who is never at a loss to expound on the monetary mess we are in.

This would be a hat trick because it assumes the Fed would borrow back funds they have created by good ole debt monetization. It assumes there is no purpose to QE in the first place. It is monetary double talk beyond MOPE or maybe MOPE at a spiritual level. It is an attempt to intellectually cloud the process and to give plausible believability to PR lies.

This is a statement that says we will step on the gas and then equally apply the brakes which means you go absolutely nowhere. It is a statement that is total gobbledegook to deflect the fact that QE is going to infinity. It is a statement that only those who do not understand monetary science might give credibility to.

The claim that QE can be controlled by equal stimulation and draining adds up to nothing whatsoever. The idea that the Fed could so perfectly orchestrate pulling and pushing is denied by the fact of where we are right now.

Only gold can protect you from this sinking ship without hope of rescue as there is no captain at the helm.

I am horrified by today’s total distortion of fact of how the monetary mechanism works by the Federal Reserve. We will win the war by jamming the accelerator to the floor and jumping on the brakes simultaneously, therefore stimulating the dead cat bouncing economies of the Western world to prosperity and avoid sovereign debt failure.

My god that is nonsense.

Meanwhile, for those keeping score, the European Central Bank has powered ahead of the Federal Reserve in the money printing race.  The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to triple its size from 2008 as the Fed printed $2 trillion in new dollars to purchase mortgage backed securities and treasury debt (effectively financing 40% of the U.S. Government’s deficit).  As of the end of February, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $2.94 trillion.

Faced with the total collapse of the banking system, wild money printing by the European Central Bank (ECB) makes the Fed look like an amateur.  After dishing out $1.4 trillion to 800 problem banks since December, the ECB’s balance sheet has exploded to $3.96 trillion.

Other central banks worldwide are following the desperate actions of the Fed and the ECB.  The combined balance sheets of the ECB, Federal Reserve, England, Germany, Switzerland, Japan and China and Great Britain has expanded from $6 trillion in mid 2007 to over $15 trillion today.

Most of the central bank money has been used to liquify insolvent banks by purchasing bank assets of dubious value.  A good portion of the funds received by banks has in turn wound up as idle excess reserves, as the banking industry refuses to expand lending to already over-leveraged or insolvent borrowers.

There will be one surefire way to determine when the money created by the central banks eventually works it way into the real economy – the price of gold will explode upward with a concurrent rise in inflation and wide spread debasement of virtually every world currency.  In the meantime, as we watch the “QE to infinity” process unfold before our eyes, gold remains on the bargain table.

Gold and Silver News & Headlines – February 2012

Gold and silver continue their strong 2012 advance with relatively sparse mainstream press headlines.  Gold is now only $114 per ounce below the all time high of $1,895 reached on September 6, 2011 and silver looks more and more like it is getting ready to challenge the $50 range last seen in mid 2011.

Based on the closing London Fix Price, gold has advanced from $1,598.00 at the beginning of the year to today’s closing price of  $1,781.00, for a gain of 11.5% or $183 per ounce.  Silver’s advance has been even more dramatic.  Since the start of the year, silver has risen 23.7% to $35.60 per ounce, a gain of $6.82 per ounce.

Here are some recent links to excellent gold and silver related stories and blog posts:

One-Half Ounce Proof Gold Eagle Sold Out, Some Silver Products Suspended

The one-half ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagles have sold out at the U.S. Mint.  The one ounce Proof Gold Eagle had previously sold out last October.  In addition, some silver numismatic product sales have been suspended pending pricing updates due to the rapid rise in silver prices.

The Financial System Is Sick – Are Precious Metals The Cure?

Over thousands of years, gold and silver are the only currencies that have not failed and have protected wealth.  With rampant worldwide money printing, the wealth of nations is being stolen through endless money printing.  Expect the severely undervalued gold stocks to rally strongly.

Gold Market of the 1970s Was A Dress Rehearsal

Jim Sinclair sees QE to infinity and persuasively argues that the only tool left in the toolbox is money printing which is required to prevent a global implosion from towering levels of debt.

Gold Should Be $2,100 – $2,200 Right Now

Great interview with Jim Puplava who discusses central bank money printing, financial repression, economic issues and why gold is undervalued by at least 22%.

Why The U.S. Government Confiscated Gold in 1933 – Can It Happen Again?

The U.S. government is already seizing the wealth of millions of Americans through financial repression.  Through executive order U.S. citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933 through 1974.  Julian Phillips examines the reasons why this occurred and wonders if  it could happen again?

Silver Price Rises Twice As Fast As Gold As The Eurozone Floods With Money

Silver has been on a tear this year, up 24% compared to an increase of 12% for gold.  How should investors react to position themselves  if gold soars over $2,000 and silver spikes to over $50?

Ex-Fed Governor Warsh Again Confirms Gold Price Suppression

GATA highlights the role of governments in financial repression and suppression of gold prices.  Ex Fed Governor Kevin Warsh notes the growing call in Europe and the U.S. to devalue debts through money printing and higher inflation.  Warsh says that “Such an inflation tax would transfer wealth from those who have lent money, in good faith, to the borrowers.  Inflation is a blunt and inappropriate instrument for assigning winners and losers from profligate fiscal policy or excessive borrowing by private individuals and firms.”

If Gold Could Talk

Terrific article on the enduring characteristics of gold, why gold is money and how much gold should an investor own?  Be prepared to get your checkbook out after reading this article.  Whatever amount of gold you currently own, it’s not enough!