April 7, 2026

India’s Attempt To Curb Gold Purchases Will Ultimately Fail

India may increase the import tax on gold for the third time this year in an attempt to shore up the weak rupee.  Purchases of gold and silver account for a huge 12.5% of all Indian imports and are contributing to a record current-account deficit according to Bloomberg.

“The government may look at increasing the duty to 7.5 percent,” Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said in a phone interview. D.S. Malik, a finance ministry spokesman in New Delhi, declined to comment.

The tax on bars and coins was doubled to 4 percent in March after imports jumped to a record 969 metric tons in 2011. A further increase may deter jewelry buyers and investors during India’s festival season, which starts this month, as a decline in the rupee against the dollar boosts domestic gold prices to an all-time high. Imports plunged 42 percent to 340 tons in the first half, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council.

Curbing shipments of gold will help the country to narrow the current-account deficit as the drop in rupee boosts the cost of crude-oil purchases, according to the finance ministry. The shortfall widened to a record 4.2 percent of the gross domestic product in the year ended March from 2.7 percent in 2010-2011.

The rise in the deficit, the broadest measure of trade, was due to slower exports and so-called relatively inelastic imports of petroleum products, gold and silver amid a rally in global prices, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Aug. 23.

Will India’s attempt to restrict import of precious metals be successful and what impact will this have on the price of gold and silver?  Let’s consider the following:

1.  The Indian government should know better.  In 1962, India passed the Gold Control Act which prohibited Indian citizens from owning gold bars and coins.  The result was the instant creation of a huge black market that continued to supply gold and silver throughout India.

The (Gold Act) legislation killed the official gold market and a large unofficial market sprung up dealing in cash only. The gold was smuggled in and sold through the unofficial channel wherein, many jewelers and bullian traders traded in smuggled gold. A huge black market developed for gold.

In 1990, India had a major foreign exchange problems and was on verge of default on external liabilities. The Indian Govt. pledged 40 tons gold from their reserves with the Bank of England and saved the day. Subsequently, India embarked upon the path of economic liberalization. The era of licencing was gradually dissolved. The gold market also benefited because the government abolished the 1962 Gold Control Act in 1992 and liberalized the gold import into India on payment of a duty of Rs.250 per ten grams. The government thought it more prudent to allow free imports and earn the taxes rather than to lose it all to unofficial channel.

2.  India should be more concerned with maintaining a currency that offers their population a stable store of value rather than depriving their citizens of viable alternate currencies such as gold and silver.

3.  The centuries old tradition in India of holding gold and silver as a source of liquidity and for capital preservation is unlikely to change.  The rupee, like most other paper currencies, has been systematically debased.  Inflation in India over the past decade has made holding rupees a losing proposition.

Courtesy: inflation.eu

4.  The reduction in gold demand during the first half of the year by both China and India has been widely touted in the mainstream press as a reason for a continued sell off in the precious metal markets.  Right.  Despite the reduction in gold demand by China and India, gold based out in the $1,600 range before rallying sharply to $1,697.   Gold is now $99 or 6.2%  higher than it was on the first trading day of 2012.

courtesy: stockcharts.com

5.  By attempting to restrict gold purchases, India has simply advertised the rupee’s intrinsic lack of value to their citizens which will ultimately create an even greater demand for gold and silver.

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Jump 25% In August, San Francisco Silver Eagle Set Sold Out

The latest sales figures from the U.S. Mint for August show a significant increase in sales of both gold and silver bullion coins.

Sales of gold bullion coins during 2012 have varied dramatically from month to month with a high of 127,000 ounces in January to a low of only 20,000 ounces in April.  Monthly gold bullion sales through August have averaged 51,625 ounces.

Monthly sales of silver bullion coins have been more consistent during 2012.  The U.S. Mint sold over 6 million ounces of silver bullion coins in January, but the monthly pace has tapered off to under 3 million ounces.  The average monthly sales of silver bullion coins through August is 2,817,500.

American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Sales

Total sales of the American Eagle Gold bullion coins during August totaled 39,000 ounces, up 27.9% from July’s total of 30,500 ounces.  Total sales of gold bullion coins by the U.S. Mint through August totaled 413,000 ounces, valued at approximately $700 million based on today’s closing gold price.

On an annualized basis, the U.S. Mint will sell almost 620,000 ounces of  gold bullion to investors this year valued at $1.0 billion if the price of gold remains at $1,692.  During 2009, the peak year of gold bullion coin sales by the U.S. Mint, investors purchased 1,435,000 ounces valued at $1.4 billion based on the average price of gold of $972 per ounce.

Investors who have reduced gold bullion purchases due to the increased cost per ounce will no doubt regret this decision as the price of gold continues to increase.  The value of gold should be viewed in the context of the reduced purchasing power of the dollar – as the Federal Reserve constantly destroys the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, the “dollar cost” of gold will naturally increase.  The price of gold is merely reflecting the fact that paper dollars are worth less and less every day.

As the Fed continues to do what it does, expect the bull market in gold to continue.

Listed below are yearly sales figures for the American Eagle gold bullion coins since 2000.  Sales for 2012 are through August 31st.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 413,000
Total 7,662,500

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales

Sales of the American Eagle Silver bullion coins by the U.S. Mint during August totaled 2,870,000 ounces, up 25% from the July total of 2,278,000 ounces.  Investor demand for silver has remained strong, with many investors taking the opportunity to purchase additional silver below the highs reached during 2011.  Sales of the silver bullion coins remain near record levels and total sales for 2012 should be well in excess of 30 million ounces for the third consecutive year.

Total annual sales by the U.S. Mint of the silver bullion coins since 2000 are shown below.  Sales for 2012 are through August.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
Jul-12 22,540,000
TOTAL 220,940,500

U.S. Mint Numismatic American Eagle Gold and Silver Coins

Both the American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins can only be purchased from the U.S. Mint by Authorized Purchasers who in turn resell the coins to other dealers and the general public.  The numismatic versions of the American Eagle series coins can be purchased directly from the U.S. Mint.

Many of the numismatic silver coins produced by the U.S. Mint attract strong demand and often times, the coins will sell at a premium in the secondary market.  A recent example of this is the 2012 San Francisco Silver Eagle Set.  According to the Mint News Blog:

The 2012 San Francisco Silver Eagle Set was one of the United States Mint’s most anticipated product releases of the year. Each set contained one 2012-S Proof Silver Eagle and one 2012-S Reverse Proof Silver Eagle.

Product sales began on June 7, 2012 at 12:00 Noon ET with pricing of $149.95 per set. Rather than establishing a maximum product limit, as had been done for similar products in the past, the US Mint would accept orders during a four week ordering window and produce the sets to meet the total demand. A sales odometer which was updated daily gave collectors an indication of the progress of the offering. Sales officially closed on July 5, 2012 at 5:00 PM ET. The last indicated sales total was 251,302 sets.

On the secondary market, prices for the sets remain above the issue price. A quick survey of eBay auctions completed within the past few days show the prices realized for raw sets mostly falling into a range of $180 to $190, compared to the issue price of $149.95.

Sets which have been graded by PCGS or NGC and received the top grade of Proof-70 have sold for premiums above raw sets. Sets with the two coins graded PCGS PR70DCAM and PR70 have recently sold for prices around $425 to $450. Sets with the two coins graded NGC PF 70 Ultra Cameo and PF 70 have sold for prices around $300 to $325.

“Gold and Silver Heading Lower” – Classic Sign Of A Market Bottom

Yahoo Finance ran a story today entitled “Gold, Silver & Copper Are All Heading Lower.”  Nothing worth discussing about the specifics of the article – the real story here is that this a classic contrary headline seen at market bottoms, not tops.

What is the really smart money doing in the gold market as the mainstream press encourages John Q. Public to sell off his gold holdings?  Here’s a nice recap from The Economic Collapse:

When men like John Paulson and George Soros start pouring huge amounts of money into gold, it is time to start becoming alarmed about the state of the global financial system.

The amount of money that these men are investing in gold is staggering….

And the central banks of the world are certainly buying gold at an unprecedented rate as well.  According to the World Gold Council, the central banks of the world added 157.5 metric tons of gold last quarter.  That was the biggest move into gold by the central banks of the globe that we have seen in modern financial history.

But that might just be the beginning.

According to a recent Marketwatch article, there are persistent rumors that China has plans to buy thousands of metric tons of gold….

The gold bull market is far from over when two of the world’s most successful investors are increasing their gold holdings.  The price correction in gold since last summer has provided another excellent buying opportunity for long term investors.

More on this topic:

Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver

Why Higher Inflation and $5,ooo Gold Are Inevitable

The Federal Reserve Can’t Produce Oil, Food or Jobs But They Will Continue To Produce Dollars

Ultimate Price of Gold Will Shock The World As Loss Of Global Confidence Leads To Economic Collapse

Gold Bull Market Could Last Another 20 Years With $12,000 Price Target

New Gold and Silver Baseball Commemorative Coins Highlight Lack Of Innovation By U.S. Mint

How Congress Stifles Innovative Coin Designs By U.S. Mint

Ever wonder why the U.S. Mint shows a lack of innovation in coin design compared to other world mints?  Here’s part of the reason as detailed by Mint News Blog:

Many coin related bills are introduced each year, but only a small number become law. In order for a bill to become law, it must be passed by both the House and Senate and then signed into law by the President. Under Congressional rules, two-thirds of each body must co-sponsor a bill before it is even put up to a vote, which is the hurdle that many bills cannot meet. Another rule limits the number of commemorative coin programs to only two per year.

The most recent bill to become law was the National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin Act. The bill H.R. 2527 was introduced on July 14, 2011, passed in the House of Representatives on October 26, 2011, passed by the Senate on July 12, 2012, and signed by the President on August 3, 2012.

The program calls for the minting and issuance of up to 50,000 $5 gold coins, 400,000 silver dollars, and 750,000 clad half dollars in recognition and celebration of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. These coins will be issued only during the one-year period beginning on January 1, 2014.

Mint New Blog goes on to discuss how the coin design will be unique with the reverse of the coin made convex and the obverse concave to enhance the resemblance to a baseball.  The coin may resemble a recently produced dome shaped coin issued by the Royal Australian Mint as shown below.

The commemorative baseball coin would represent the first innovation in coin design by the U.S. Mint since 2000 when the Library of Congress $10 coin was produced, which was the first and only US Mint bimetallic coin.  While the new baseball coin will certainly increase public interest in precious metal coins, Congress should grant the U.S. Mint more latitude to produce a wide variety of innovative coins without an onerous legislative process.

Two Masterpiece Gold and Silver Medals

Precious metal investors who have a deep appreciation for the artistry of gold and silver coins are likely to be blown away by the latest medals issued by the Royal British Mint.

As reported by World Mint News Blog, the Royal Mint has issued two magnificent gold and silver medals that showcase the skill and craftsmanship of mint engravers.  Both coins have extremely limited mintage with the gold medal issue limit set at only 25.  The purchase price of the gold medal is £23,500.00 or $36,843.  I would expect both of these low mintage medals to be priced substantially higher in the secondary market if they ever become available for sale.

The obverse of the medal depicts Arthur as a Warrior King defeating the Saxons as Merlin stands in the background. The battlefield is shown with mist and smoke rising into the air and the dragon flags planted by the cavalry symbolizing victory. The reverse depicts Arthur as a wounded and defeated King offering his sword Excalibur to his Knight Bedivere. In the background appear Arthur’s wife Guinevere embracing Lancelot and Arthur’s half sister Morgana holding her staff with a raven atop.

Both the gold and silver medals feature the same intricate design and are struck in high relief. Both are oversized to provide a large canvas for the work. The .999 silver coin has a weight of 250 grams (8.04 troy ounces) and diameter of 80 mm. The .999 gold coin has a weight of 313 grams (10.06 troy ounces) and diameter of 65 mm.

As might be expected, these are extremely limited in mintage and premium priced. The silver medal has an issue limit of 500 and is £695.00, and the gold medal has a limit of just 25 and is priced at £23,500.00. The product pages can be found here and here.

The U.S. Mint should pay attention to the artistry of coins produced by other world mints.  Imaginative new gold and silver coin designs by the U.S. Mint would not only be appreciated by numismatists but would probably broaden investor interest in standard gold and silver bullion coins.

Ron Paul – “U.S. Treasury Guilty of Counterfeiting Dollars”

When Ron Paul retires after his current term in Congress, one of the most notable voices for a sound currency and protection of civil liberties against a despotic government will be gone from the official Washington scene.  Although Paul was never able to rein in a government that assumes more power over our lives with each passing minute, his warnings gave Americans the opportunity to understand the threats to their financial future and personal liberties.

What may be one of Ron Paul’s last legislative efforts is his campaign to allow competing currencies in the United States in order to break the monopoly on money by the Treasury and Federal Reserve.

I recently held a hearing in my congressional subcommittee on the subject of competing currencies.  This is an issue of enormous importance, but unfortunately few Americans understand how the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department impose a strict monopoly on money in America.

This monopoly is maintained using federal counterfeiting laws, which is a bit rich.  If any organization is guilty of counterfeiting dollars, it is our own Treasury.  But those who dare to challenge federal legal tender laws by circulating competing currencies– at least physical currencies– risk going to prison.

Like all government created monopolies, the federal monopoly on money results in substandard product in the form of our ever-depreciating dollars.

Yet governments have always sought to monopolize the issuance of money, either directly or through the creation of central banks. The expanding role of the Federal Reserve in the 20th century enabled our federal government to grow wildly larger than would have been possible otherwise.  Our Fed, like all central banks, encourages deficits by effectively monetizing Treasury debt.  But the price we pay is the terrible and ongoing debasement of our money.

Allowing individuals and business to use alternate currencies, especially currencies backed by gold and silver, would expose the whole rotten system because the marketplace would prefer such alternate currencies unless and until the Fed suddenly imposed radical discipline on its dollar inflation.

Sadly, Americans are far less free than many others around the world when it comes to protecting themselves against the rapidly depreciating US dollar.  Mexican workers can set up accounts denominated in ounces of silver and take tax-free delivery of that silver whenever they want.  In Singapore and other Asian countries, individuals can set up bank accounts denominated in gold and silver.  Debit cards can be linked to gold and silver accounts so that customers can use gold and silver to make point of sale transactions, a service which is only available to non-Americans.

The obvious solution is to legalize monetary freedom and allow the circulation of parallel and competing currencies.  There is no reason why Americans should not be able to transact, save, and invest using the currency of their choosing.  They should be free to use gold, silver, or other currencies with no legal restrictions or punitive taxation standing in the way.  Restoring the monetary system envisioned by the Constitution is the only way to ensure the economic security of the American people.

After all, if our monetary system is fundamentally sound– and the Federal Reserve indeed stabilizes the dollar as its apologists claim–then why fear competition?  Why do we accept that centralized, monopoly control over our money is compatible with a supposedly free-market economy?  In a free market, the government’s fiat dollar should compete with alternate currencies for the benefit of American consumers, savers, and investors.

As Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises explained, sound money is an instrument that protects our civil liberties against despotic government. Our current monetary system is indeed despotic, and the surest way to correct things simply is to legalize competing currencies.

Ron Paul is routinely dismissed as a naif by the Federal Reserve and Treasury.  Yet a quick look at the  chart of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar (published by the St. Louis Fed) proves the legitimacy of Ron Paul’s concerns.  Federal Reserve policies have resulted in the systematic destruction of the purchasing power of the consumer dollar.

Will Ron Paul be successful in his quest to legalize a competing U.S. currency?  Let’s look at Paul’s track record.

Of the 620 bills that Paul had sponsored through December 2011, over a period of more than 22 years in Congress, only one had been signed into law – a lifetime success rate of less than 0.3%.   The sole measure authored by Paul that was ultimately enacted allowed for a federal customhouse to be sold to a local historic preservation society (H.R. 2121 in 2009).

Although Ron Paul’s crusade against corrupt government and the Federal Reserve is a losing battle, the value of his message is invaluable.   Ron Paul has seen the future of constant U.S. dollar debasement and positioned his personal portfolio heavily into gold and silver – something that the average American should think about.

Gold Bullion Coin Sales Plunge 50% In July, Silver Sales Off 20%

The latest sales figures from the U.S. Mint show that sales of both gold and silver bullion coins declined dramatically during July.  While sales of silver bullion coins have remained at historically high levels, sales of the gold bullion coins have been in a steep decline since 2009.

American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Sales

Sales of the American Eagle Gold Bullion coins during July totaled 30,500 ounces, a 49.2% decline from June sales of 60,000 ounces.  Two previous months of the year had lower gold coin sales than July.  During February 21,000 ounces of gold bullion coins were sold and in April only 20,000 ounces were sold.   The year to date average monthly sales figures for gold bullion coins total 53,428 compared to a monthly average of 83,333 during 2011.

The all time yearly sales record for the American Eagle gold bullion coins was set during 2009 when it looked as if the entire U.S. banking system was about to collapse.  Sales in each subsequent year have been lower than 2009 despite the increase in the price of gold since then.  In 2009 gold closed the year at $1,087.50 per ounce, subsequently hit a high of $1,895 on September 5, 2011 and closed today at $1,615.90 in New York trading.  If sales during 2012 are annualized, total gold bullion coin sales will reach approximately 641,000 ounces, the lowest amount since 2007 when yearly sales came in at 198,500 ounces.

Listed below are yearly sales figures for the American Eagle gold bullion coins since 2000.  Sales for 2012 are through July 31st.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Sales Oz.
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 374,000
Total 7,623,500

The graph below shows gold bullion coins sales since 2012, with sales annualized for 2012.

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales

According to the U.S. Mint, sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins totaled 2,278,000 ounces during July, a decline of 20.3% from June’s total of 2,858,000.   The highest monthly sales of the silver bullion coins during 2012 was 6,107,000 ounces recorded in January followed by the lowest monthly sales of 1,490,000 ounces in February.  Average monthly sales of the silver bullion coins through July was 2,810,000.

The silver bullion coins have showed resilient demand despite the drop in silver prices since mid 2011.  Based on year to date sales figures, total sales of the silver bullion coins could approach 34 million ounces, not far below the record sales figure recorded in 2011 when almost 40 million ounces were sold.

Total annual sales by the U.S. Mint of the silver bullion coins since 2000 are shown below.  Sales for 2012 are year to date totals through July.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
Jul-12 19,670,000
TOTAL 218,070,500

The American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins are sold by the U.S. Mint only to Authorized Purchasers who in turn resell the coins to the general public and other dealers.  Numismatic versions of the American Eagle series gold and silver coins can be purchased by the public directly from the U.S. Mint.

Would Auditing The Fed Send Gold Higher?

By Vin Maru

The House Passes H.R. 459 Bill from Ron Paul to Audit the Fed

July 25, 2012 should go down in history as the date the Federal Reserve may become fully accountable to the US government. A motion to pass the bill as amended was unanimously approved by the house to require a full audit of the boards of governors of the Federal Reserve System and banks. This will be done by the Comptroller General of the US before the end of 2012 and they are required to issue their report within 12 months of enactment.  The votes in the House in the bill’s passing this was 326 yea votes to 99 nay votes with 7 non votes.  Interestingly enough it was the Republicans that strongly supported this bill with 239 yea and 1 nay vote, while the Democrats voted 88 yea and 98 nay.
http://youtu.be/C47DVVUmHDw

There are many hurdles ahead of this bill before it takes effect; it still has to be ratified by the Senate and the President.  However, finally getting approved in the House is a step in the right direction.  Even if it does pass how much effect will the audit have in reality?  Probably not much since the banking institution known as the Federal Reserve operates outside of any law.  Even if they are found guilty of any wrong doing in managing the value of the US dollar or being involved in rigging the Libor rate, who will be there to prosecute them?  Remember they operate outside the law, so even if they are found guilty, it will be the US citizens and holders of paper/digital US dollars that will somehow pay for it.

In a world where bank’s losses are socialized, the Federal Reserve (the banker for banks) misconducts have always been socialized on the people.  Of course, this socialization of losses by the Fed has been taking place ever since its illegal inception.  In 1913, the Federal Reserve stole the power to issue and control money by introducing the Federal Reserve note, something we call the US dollar.  Since then, it is estimated that the dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power by way of inflation (the increase of the money supply), so it really has only 5% left to go.   As the value of the US dollar moves towards its intrinsic value of zero, gold and silver as true money has only one way to go and that is up.

Usually first reactions are correct and looking at this news the value of the US dollar reacted negatively, while gold went higher in most major currencies around the world.

Could This be the Catalyst that Gold Needs for a Major Break Out to the Upside?

In a manipulated market, it’s tough to say, but the fact that there is support for auditing the Fed and making it accountable is definitely a step in the right direction.  With the recent news about major banks manipulating the Libor rate, any investigation into the Fed’s involvement is most welcome and has to be gold-positive.  Recently, we have been writing about how gold is moving towards the financial system with several different proposals for making it a tier 1 asset class and its use as collateral by financial institutions. If these proposals take effect, they are planned for January 2013, which coincides nicely with this audit being completed by the end of 2012.

Normally, the summer doldrums represent the lows in price for precious metals with a significant rally occurring in the fall and winter.  With this recent down turn, we have most likely seen the lows, and there are many catalysts for G&S to move higher into next years.

For example:

1. Food inflation is rising with this drought.

2. Gold could carry a zero risk weighting on bank books by Jan 2013 (BIS and FDIC are proposing this).

3. Paper currencies are Fiat, essentially worthless, but they will be used to create inflation, there is no other choice at the moment—QE to Infinity.

4. Market manipulation by bullion banks will be overrun by physical buyer (mostly now coming from central banks).

5. The investment community is only 1% invested in gold; historically this has been 5-10%.

6. Political tensions with Iran could heat up again later this year or early next, causing higher oil prices and as such gold.

7. More banking manipulation and scandals are emerging this summer, the Libor scandal is just the tip of the iceberg.

8. They system for true price discovery is broken, regulators have failed and the LBMA & Comex have lost all control and credibility.

9.  The price suppression by the west will be overrun by the East and physical buyers. The West cannot win this paper game.

10. MOST importantly: GOLD and SILVER is a hard asset and it has a history of over 5000 years being REAL MONEY. This paper/digital money has been only in place over the last 100 years and is doomed to fail.

Now is the time to be investing in gold and silver, during this consolidation.  A long period of consolidation is usually followed by a major move either to the upside and downside.  Given gold and silver’s favourable fundamentals, the break out will most likely be to the upside as gold moves towards the financial system.  Today’s positive price action could be the start of a new trend higher going into the fall and early next year.  If this trend plays out, there will be several opportunities to trade in and out of several precious metals ETFs.  The gold miners are great value compared to gold and we have been evaluating several that have great upside potential and production growth.

The key is to be ahead of the curve before it happens, take a position and place a tight stop loss in case this is a fake break out and gold continues to correct lower against its fundamentals.  If the correction in gold is over and we are at a start of a new trend higher over the next year, this summer will prove to one of the best buying opportunities we have seen in a very long time.  Significant profits could be made buying gold and many of the producers during the summer doldrums and then selling into the fall and winter, the only question is are you positioned to take advantage of a trend change in gold when it happens.

If you enjoyed reading this article and are interested in protecting your wealth with precious metals, you can receive our free blog by visiting TDV Golden Trader.

Cheers

Precious Metals Storage – Everything You Need To Know But Probably Don’t

By Nick Barisheff:

Worldwide economic uncertainty has created a growing interest in precious metals as a way to preserve wealth. Today, global risks for investors include currency devaluation, sovereign debt defaults, bond market collapses and stock market losses, all underpinned by ever-increasing government debt.

For protection from impending economic Armageddon, investors are turning in increasing numbers to the traditional safe haven of precious metals. Unfortunately, many today don’t know how to purchase or store bullion, and consequently may find themselves as vulnerable to financial collapse as those who didn’t purchase any bullion at all.

This increased interest in precious metals as portfolio insurance has spawned a new generation of precious metals-based financial products, many of which are paper proxies or derivatives of bullion. There are even unregulated markets for the exchange of “digital gold.”

A clear case for transparency

In 2007, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge gave a speech entitled “A Clear Case for Transparency”  to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce. “…[I]investors will have to take on more responsibility for diligent research,” he said, “so that they can better understand the nature of their investments and demand greater transparency where it is now lacking … they must do their own homework and make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying.”

Most investors do not read the fine print of the agreements they sign with respect to financial investments; they make assumptions, but do not definitively know if they own actual bullion. Some are attracted to certain bullion investments because of low premiums and low storage fees, but when was the last time Wall Street and the major banks gave the investing public a deal?

Investors who don’t do their homework may be dismayed to find that their safe haven asset has proved to be anything but. These same people perform rigorous due diligence when purchasing a home, car or boat, demanding that they have clear legal title to the asset in question. The same attention to detail must be paid when investing in bullion.

The most important concept to understand is that a financial institution CAN sell an investor’s bullion if the agreement states that it can. Banks are not raiding allocated accounts; rather, they are following the provisions of the contract, in which the bullion is not allocated despite an investor’s assumptions.

There does appear to be cause for concern regarding the transparency of bullion products. As reported by the economic news website ZeroHedge, financial services giant Morgan Stanley paid out $4.4 million in June 2007 to settle a class action lawsuit brought by clients after the firm charged them to “buy and store” precious metals, but did neither .

Similarly, a class action lawsuit filed in New York’s federal court accuses UBS Financial Services of misleading silver investors, and charging them storage fees for metals that were never purchased, let alone allocated or stored for them.

A larger problem has been brewing for several years now, that of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are generally viewed as a low-cost panacea that replaces almost any investment strategy, including the purchase of gold bullion, and they are giving investors a false sense of security.

False sense of security for ETF investors

ETFs started as equity index vehicles, in which brokers acting as Authorized Participants borrowed shares from institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds or their clients’ margin accounts to contribute to the Origination Basket of shares. They received ETF shares at Net Asset Value (NAV) in exchange, and sold them to investors at NAV – keeping all of the money. This is standard practice, as brokers have always been able to borrow shares from clients’ margin accounts for the purpose of shorting or for lending to other brokers.

Essentially, many ETFs hold assets that have been borrowed. Because there are no specific prohibitions to prevent the same practice from being used in precious metals ETFs, the same methodology is likely being used. Many investors are attracted by the low management fees offered by precious metals ETFs, but few understand the problems that may arise when more than one person has claim to the same asset.

ETF-based financial crisis could make 2008 look like child’s play

This ETF structure will work during normal market conditions. However, it may result in losses and disputes if the Authorized Participants, acting as market makers, become insolvent or step aside during a precipitous decline. If a bank or brokerage firm becomes an insolvent Authorized Participant, either the lender of the assets or the ETF shareholders will suffer losses. During a market crash, existing holders may be unable to sell their ETF shares.  Although this possibility was considered remote when ETFs were created, the recent and recurring failures of banks and brokerage firms make these concerns far more real .

The bottom line on ETFs is that they are tracking vehicles with multiple claims/counterparty risks on their assets as well as their shares. As debt-based stress on the global financial system continues to build, the flash-crash of 2010 may well have foreshadowed an ETF-based financial crisis that will make the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 look like child’s play.

Own bullion with clear title

When we at Bullion Management Group sit down with clients seeking to own bullion, we present them with our Precious Metals Pyramid Chart. Moving up the pyramid increases risk; moving down the pyramid increases safety. A portfolio’s foundation should consist of physical bullion owned outright. Farther up the pyramid are proxies of bullion in one form or another that are more risky and often less liquid; in other words, the opposite of a safe haven asset you can count on in times of financial stress. Bullion should always meet two criteria: It should not be someone else’s liability, and it should not be someone else’s promise of performance.

To establish a physical bullion portfolio foundation with metals that are stored on an allocated and insured basis, one that will protect against what could be called ethical mayhem in today’s financial sector, investors must, as Governor Dodge advised, make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying. While reading legal documents and prospectuses is tedious, the truth is in the fine print and investors must do their own due diligence, and beware of complex investment structures.

Demand documentation that transfers title directly to the purchaser

For a bullion product, be it a fund or actual bullion bars, to earn its place as the foundation of a portfolio, the bullion purchaser must demand documentation that legally transfers title of specific, physical bars directly to them. Do not accept IOUs, paper proxies or derivatives. It is important to read the purchase documents carefully to ensure they convey legal title. Only after the purchaser has legal title can they enter into a binding custody agreement for bullion storage on an allocated, insured basis. In that agreement, the purchaser must be able to identify all terms and rights concerning insurance and secure, allocated storage.

Proper insurance and allocated storage in a credible, guarded vault costs money, so steer clear of bullion products promising low fees. If the deal appears too good to be true, the physical bullion may not exist. What the investor may have is paper bullion that will not offer protection when it is most needed; they may simply be an unsecured creditor of the dealer. It is hardly prudent to be tempted by low storage fees that will save a fraction of a percentage point while risking an entire bullion holding. Short cuts and penny pinching are inadvisable strategies for any asset intended as an ultimate safe haven of wealth protection.

Home storage not worth the risk of invasion or physical assault

Many people think that storing their bullion at home is a good way to economize on physical bullion storage fees, but be aware that any sizeable amount of home-stored bullion will not be covered by a household insurance policy.

Keeping a modest—and secret—stash of small-denomination gold or silver for barter purposes is recommended in the event that ATM machines aren’t working, or a ‘bank holiday’ is announced. This may seem like an excess of caution until you consider that, earlier this year, the Bank of Italy authorized the suspension of payments by Bank Network Investments Spa (BNI) without first advising depositors .

Unless absolute secrecy is maintained, home storage means putting yourself and your family at risk of a home invasion. There has been an increase of home invasions in England during Asian wedding season, when gold gifts are stored in homes, and street gangs and professional thieves are only too happy to relieve people of their precious metals .

Even in peace-loving Canada, a British Columbia man lost his life savings of $750,000 in silver bars to knife-and-gun wielding thugs who arrived at his door disguised as police officers. When he let them in, the ‘officers’ forced him to open his vault and stole the silver . For any sizeable amount of bullion, home storage is clearly not worth the risk.

Many precious metals dealers do not trust banks for storage, and prefer private vault facilities. They may rethink this approach on reviewing a British case where authorities raided three private safe deposit box centres, and opened 6,717 private boxes . The owners of the boxes were required to provide proof of the contents of their box before their possessions were returned. Most could not do so, and much of the cash involved went missing while other items are in dispute. The ensuing litigation will likely last for decades; in the meantime, those who stored bullion in their boxes have been relieved of their metal, and may only receive compensation in the amount of the value of the bullion at the time of the raid.

Another consideration is that safe deposit box contents cannot be insured, and there is no proof that anything is actually in the box. Investors who are still interested in private vaults or safe deposit box centres should perform due diligence on the financial condition of the operator and the owner of the vault, since stored assets may be at risk in the case of a private vault’s insolvency.

Storing bullion at home, in a safe deposit box or in a private vault is another form of false economy, wherein investors put their safe haven asset at risk to save a small amount in storage fees.

LBMA bullion in LBMA member vaults

Another important aspect of due diligence for a proper foundation of wealth preservation is the assurance that your bullion is in the form of Good Delivery bars, and stored in the vault of a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member.

The LBMA is a wholesale, over-the-counter market for trading gold and silver. Its members include the majority of the bullion banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.

The reason for insisting on LBMA bullion is that it assures the purchaser of the quality and fineness of the bars. Once gold is outside a chain of integrity such as that of the LBMA, it may need to be re-assayed before it can be sold. This prevents gold-plated Tungsten bars from entering the chain of integrity. Re-assaying is time consuming, engenders extra cost and once again defeats the purpose of a safe haven store of wealth that offers efficient liquidity.

We constantly hear stories of discount bullion, or bullion sold at no premium to the spot price. The likelihood that this is pure bullion from an ethical source is slight to none.

In case of fire, you need an extinguisher, not a picture of one

Bullion demand is clearly growing as both sovereign nations and the world’s largest financial institutions buckle under the burden of unserviceable debt, leaving helicopter-loads of new money printing and associated currency devaluation as the only way out.

Investors can protect their portfolios by purchasing physical bullion. Just as with any large asset purchase, demand documentation that confers legal title to the bullion you are purchasing, review a written custodial agreement that specifies insured, allocated storage without giving the custodian the right to deal with the bullion in any way, and insist on Good Delivery bars.

When the next financial firestorm erupts, you need real, physical bullion and not a paper proxy; just as in a fire you need a real fire extinguisher, not a picture of one.

Nick Barisheff is President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company that provides investors with a cost-effective, convenient way to purchase and store physical bullion. Widely recognized in North America as a bullion expert, Barisheff is an author, speaker and financial commentator on bullion and current market trends.  His first book, $10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise is the Investors Safe Haven, will be published in the fall of 2012. For more information on Bullion Management Group Inc. visit: www.bmgbullion.com.

Have Gold Stocks Hit Bottom Yet? Richmont Mines Latest Disappointment

The price of gold is almost exactly unchanged on the year.  The first trading day of the year saw gold close at $1598 per ounce.  After reaching a high of $1781 on February 28th, gold has drifted lower and at today’s closing price of $1604 gold is up a fraction of a percent on the year.

 

The story has been quite different for stockholders in gold mining companies.   Gold stocks have gone through a brutal sell off during 2012 despite the neutral price action of gold bullion.  Stock prices of the junior gold miners have been particularly brutalized as shown by the Market Vectors Junior Gold Mine ETF (GDXJ) which is down over 50% from its high late last year.

 

GDXJ - Courtesy stockcharts.com

The shares of the largest gold miners have also seen major losses during 2012.  The PHLX Gold and Silver Index (^XAU), comprised of 16 major gold and silver producers, has decline by 21% from its peak reached in early February.

 

XAU - courtesy stockcharts.com

The latest casualty in the junior gold mining sector was Richmond Mines (RIC) which recently lowered its estimate of reserves and production and took a major write down on assets.  Richmond, a highly regarded gold mining company with excellent reserves and earnings prospects, was only one of the latest blowups in the junior gold mining sector.  Richmond Mines has collapsed 70% from its $13 per share price in late January, closing today at $3.97.

 

Courtesy stockcharts.com

Is the decline in gold mining shares a harbinger for the future trend in gold bullion or is the latest sell off a major buying opportunity?

Here are some thoughts from two of the brightest minds in the industry who both have superb long term track records.

Legendary gold investor John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) remains bullish as discussed in his latest Gold Strategy Investment Letter.

Why would anyone own them other than for the possibility of a higher gold price?  While we do not wish to minimize such issues as capital spending cost pressures, resource nationalism, or competition from GLD and similar instruments, we believe those concerns will fall by the wayside with the resumption of the bull market in the metal.  If gold were to trade at $2,000/oz. later this year, and should the ratio of gold mining shares (XAU basis) return to the mid -point of its range since the launch of GLD in 2004, or roughly 15% versus the current level roughly 10%, mining stocks could  double on a 25% increase in the gold price.

The policy challenges facing the Volcker Fed and the Reagan administration that ultimately capped the previous bull market in gold seem mild by comparison to those of today.  We believe that gold remains under owned and misunderstood notwithstanding a thirteen year bull market.  It is considered a fringe strategy to most, a little bit exotic and slightly risqué to the mainstream investor.  While policy makers attempt to buy time by inventing solutions that are incomprehensible to most, the dream of mainstream investors for robust growth amidst stable economic conditions remains alive.  Faith in half-baked policy improvisations that are nothing more than repackaging bad debt in the envelope of sovereign credit, along with hope that ever increasing quantities of sovereign debt will generate growth is, in our opinion, delusional.

Peter Grandich gives an excellent in-depth analysis on both gold stocks and gold bullion in a recent post on the Grandich Letter website.  The full post is a must read – here are some of his latest thoughts.

Despite general metals prices much, much higher than a decade or two ago, the mining and exploration industry is far more challenged now than ever before. This is especially true as you move further down the food chain in the junior resource sector.

I’m certain there are other reasons, but I believe the above is a good part of why we’re where we are today. The question now is does this mean the mining and exploration stocks are no longer worthy?

The “mother” of all bull markets continues thanks to four key reasons:

  • Once dominant sellers that capped any advances, Central Banks are now net buyers.
  • Gold producers, who once “cut their noses to spite their faces” by selling forward large quantities of future production and helped capped the price by doing so, now operate under the belief hedging is a “four-letter” word among investors.
  • Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) greatly changed the balance between supply and demand. Investors who never or rarely sought exposure to gold beforehand (because of difficulties associated with physical bullion buying) and/or who ended using mining shares for exposure only to see them not come close to correlating movements in the gold price themselves, embraced ETFs in a big and powerful way in order to have exposure to gold. Whether or not those ETFs are really direct ways to physical ownership doesn’t concern them, but their large-scale appetite for them combined with the changes among Central Banks and gold producers greatly altered the supply versus demand in favor of demand.
  • Gold is money. There’s no Central Bank printing it like it’s going out of style. There’s no government(s) borrowed up to their eyeballs in it. Where you find real growing wealth in the world you find those people acquiring it are using gold as a storer of their wealth.