May 7, 2024

Why Gold And Silver Prices Will Continue To Rise

October 27, 2011 by 5 Comments

The September correction in the price of gold and silver resulted in a flood of bearish articles by the mainstream press, proclaiming that the “gold and silver bubbles” had burst.

Since the mainstream press does not comprehend why precious metals have been in a bull market for the past ten years, the proclamation of the “end of the gold and silver bull markets” was, in reality, a contrarian bullish call.

Every long term bull market has sharp sell offs and gold and silver are no exception to this rule.  The sharp rise of gold prices during the summer attracted hot money from speculators and hedge funds who quickly liquidated positions based on short term technical sell signals, driving down the price of gold by over $300 per ounce.

As previously discussed, the fundamental reasons for owning gold and silver have not changed – in fact, they have grown stronger.  The September sell off in precious metal prices was simply another fantastic opportunity for long term investors to increase positions at bargain prices.

Long term investors in precious metals have outperformed virtually every asset class for the past ten years.  Even after the panic selling of September, gold still held gains of over 20% on the year from a price of $1,405 at the start of 2011.  Silver, despite a very volatile year, also remains above its price of $30.67 at the beginning of the year.

Both gold and silver remain in established long term up trends and remain at oversold, bargain level prices.

 

 

One strong fundamental factor providing support for further price gains in gold and silver comes from Mark Hulbert, whose Hulbert Financial Digest measures newsletter sentiment on the gold market.  Recent readings of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) (tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest) revealed that at the end of last week gold timers were extremely bearish on gold.

The HGNSI readings dropped to the most bearish level in two and a half years, with gold market timers recommending a 13% short allocation in gold portfolios.  Hulbert’s research shows that gold usually rises when gold timers are very bearish.  Hulbert notes that gold timers have not been this bearish since March of 2009 – a level from which gold prices subsequently doubled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver Tagged With: , , , ,

Treasure Hunters Find 7 Million Ounces of Silver On SS Gairsoppa

September 27, 2011 by Leave a Comment

On  February 16, 1941, Ernst Mengersen, Captain of Nazi U-boat 101, torpedoed the starboard side of the British merchant ship SS Gairsoppa, sending her to the bottom of the Atlantic.  Little did Captain Mengersen realize that the value of the sunken ship’s cargo would be worth almost a quarter of a billion dollars seventy years later.

The wreck of the SS Gairsoppa was discovered 300 miles off the coast of Ireland, at a depth of 15,400 feet, by Odyssey Marine Exploration.  The British Government had awarded an exclusive contract to Odyssey to find the SS Gairsoppa which, on her last voyage, was returning from India with a cargo of pig iron, tea and 7 million ounces of silver ingots.

The silver treasure, which is the largest value cargo salvage in history, was originally valued at approximately £600,000 British pounds when the SS Gairsoppa was sent to the bottom of the Atlantic.  Those 7 million ounces of silver today are worth 225 times the 1941 value or about £136,000,000 ($210 million).

The 412 foot steel-hulled SS Gairsoppa had been in service since her construction in 1919 and was sailing with a convoy to England on what turned out to be her last voyage.  Running low on fuel and in a heavy storm, the unlucky ship left the convoy to head for Galway, Ireland.  After being spotted by a German plane, the Gairsoppa’s fate was sealed as U-101 moved in for an easy kill.

Although the general location of the sunken ship was long known, the technical complexity of salvage operations at a depth of 4,700 meters made recovery operations almost impossible.  Recent advances in salvage recovery, as well as the increased value of silver, resulted in the British government soliciting private companies to find and salvage the Gairsoppa’s precious cargo.  Under the agreement with the British government, Odyssey Marine  will keep 80% of the value of the silver bullion recovered.

SS Gairsoppa - courtesy Odyssey Marine Exploration

Odyssey Marine has gained fame for previous discoveries of sunken ships laden with gold and silver treasure.  In 2003 Odyssey discovered the SS Republic, a Civil War era ship with over 50,000 silver and gold coins on board.  Odyssey also recovered a treasure trove of over 500,000 silver and gold coins from a Colonial era shipwreck site code named Black Swan.

Of the hundreds of thousands of shipwrecks over the centuries, the only cargo worth retrieving (other than archaeological treasures) are precious metals, which have retained value since the dawn of human civilization.  Just for laughs, let’s compare that to the purchasing power of the paper dollar over the past half century.

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Silver Tagged With: , , , , ,

A Perspective On The Plunge In Gold and Silver

September 24, 2011 by 3 Comments

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke set the world on fire this week as his latest scheme to “twist” long term interest rates lower pleased no one and triggered a 737 point drop in the Dow.  In addition, the Fed panicked investors by admitting that there were “significant downside risks to the economic outlook”.

Virtually every asset class except U.S. treasuries went into full scale meltdowns.  The U.S. stock market registered its worst weekly drop since the dark days of October 2008 when the  U.S. banking system was collapsing.

The rush to liquidity and forced margin selling sent precious metal prices into a tailspin. London silver plunged by $7.07 or 18%, to $32.90, the biggest decline since 1987.  Gold, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, dropped $105 on the week to $1,689, the largest weekly decline since 1983.  Spot prices for both gold and silver continued lower in New York afternoon trading with gold settling at $1658.20 and silver at $31.03.

Platinum dropped by $147 on the week to $1,651 and palladium dropped by $73 to $659 for losses of 8.18% and 9.97%, respectively.  Silver, with 60% of its demand relating to industrial use,  took the largest plunge in the precious metals group as economic indicators pointed to a rapidly slowing economy worldwide.

Precious Metals Prices Sept 23
9/23PM Fix Weekly Change
Gold $1,689.00 -105.00 -5.85%
Silver $32.90 -7.07 -17.69%
Platinum $1,651.00 -147.00 -8.18%
Palladium $659.00 -73.00 -9.97%

Although the sharp declines in gold and silver are unsettling, the fundamental reasons for owning gold and silver remain intact.  The rapid price increases in gold and silver since July attracted large investment flows from hedge funds and other short term speculators, who rapidly liquidate large positions based on short term technical sell signals.

Despite this week’s panic selling, long term gold investors have seen their investment rise from $1,405.50 at the beginning of the year, for a gain of $283.50 (20.2%).  Silver, despite this week’s painful sell off, is still higher by $2.23 or 7.3% from the beginning of the year, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price.

For additional perspective on the relative performance of the gold and silver markets, here’s the record for various stock indices and the 10 year bond since the beginning of 2011.  (Note that the 10 year bond shows yield, not price.)

Asset Performance - courtesy schwab.com

Meanwhile, as the global financial system rapidly moves towards the precipice, faith in the ability of governments to contain the crisis is quickly eroding.  2011 is not a replay of the 2008 financial meltdown – it’s much more dangerous.  The sovereign governments that “saved the system” in 2008 incurred massive amounts of debt which have brought them to the brink of insolvency.  The bankruptcy of one country could ignite a financial firestorm that world governments cannot contain.

The inability of European leaders to effectively act in concert to resolve the Euro debt crisis has drawn the United States into the center of the crisis.  According to The New York Times, the U.S. is pushing Europe to mount a massive bailout to avoid financial Armageddon.

The Obama administration, increasingly alarmed by the spillover effects of Europe’s financial crisis, has begun an intensive lobbying campaign to persuade Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and other leaders to ramp up efforts to stem any contagion from the debt crisis in Greece.

In phone calls and meetings over the last week, President Obama urged Mrs. Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France to take coordinated measures — including spending billions in additional funds to bail out Greece and bolster European financial institutions — to prevent Greece’s debt woes from spreading to its neighbors.

“The biggest single risk to the United States today is that the European situation will spiral out of control,” said Edwin M. Truman, a former Treasury official who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Europe is not going to save the U.S. economy, but it could be the straw that breaks it.”

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist who has written about the history of financial crises, puts Europe’s effect on the United States in blunt political terms. “The downside scenario is awful,” he said…

American officials have also emphasized the Fed’s outsize role in responding to the financial crisis here and urged Europe to view the Fed as a model. It made trillions of dollars in loans so that investors remained able to buy and sell a wide range of financial products.

Given the risks to the United States economy from a banking collapse and sovereign defaults in Europe, anyone who thinks that the United States will not be getting deeply involved in the financial bailout of Europe is delusional.  The “rescue” of Europe will ultimately involve the same techniques (zero interest rates and money printing) used by Bernanke in the United States.  The resulting negative interest rates and worldwide debasement of paper currencies will ultimately send gold soaring to new highs.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , , ,

The Road Map To Sound Money and Restoring the Dollar – Ron Paul’s Proposal

September 15, 2011 by 6 Comments

“Road Map to Sound Money: A Legislative Hearing on H.R. 1098 and Restoring the Dollar”.

Ron Paul’s efforts to restore a sound currency in the United States continued this week as hearings were held on his proposed legislation that would allow American citizens to chose from among competing currencies.  Ironically, the one man whose proposals could ultimately save the U.S. financial system from collapse, was completely ignored by the mainstream press who provided zero coverage of H.R. 1098.

H.R. 1098, introduced by Ron Paul in March is known as the “Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011”.  According to Ron Paul, “This bill eliminates three of the major obstacles to the circulation of sound money: federal legal tender laws that force acceptance of Federal Reserve Notes; “counterfeiting” laws that serve no purpose other than to ban the creation of private commodity currencies; and tax laws that penalize the use of gold and silver coins as money.”

Ron Paul noted that gold and silver have constituted sound money throughout history.  Loss of confidence in the dollar and profligate deficit spending by the government have caused people to flee to gold and silver as a store of value.  Paul noted that “Even central banks have come to their senses and have begun to stock up on gold once again.”

Presently, the use of gold and silver by citizens is being severely punished by the government.  Ron Paul cited the case of Bernard von NotHaus, creator of the Liberty Dollar, who was convicted of counterfeiting for creating his own gold and silver currency and another individual who was “convicted of tax evasion for paying his employees with silver and gold coins instead of fiat dollars.”

H.R. 1098, according to Ron Paul, would allow citizens to maintain the purchasing value of their money and prevent the government from conducting excessive borrowing which will enslave future generations with debt.

Testimony at the hearing for H.R. 1098 was given by Dr. Lawrence Parks, Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education, and Dr. Lawrence White, Professor of Economics, George Mason University.

Dr. Parks, who presented 63 pages of prepared remarks, opened by stating that the current monetary system is not in conformity with the Constitution, is dishonest and unstable and in the process of “blowing up.”

Selected excerpts from Dr. Parks testimony:

With no exceptions, the history of legal tender irredeemable paper-ticket-electronic money is that its purchasing power always approaches its cost of production: ZERO!

With gold-as-money, and without the banking system creating money out of nothing, the amount of financial leverage would be de minimis with no possibility of collapse. Because legal tender irredeemable paper-ticketelectronic money can be created without limit, there is no market based self-correcting mechanism to limit financial leverage. Especially at a time when those who engage in leverage do not bear the full risk of loss, but are able pass the risk on to the public through the banking system, whose balance sheet and liabilities are de facto guaranteed by the public, financial collapse is a certainty.

Many think that the Great Depression was a “market failure.” Mr. Greenspan has written extremely eloquently that the Great Depression was in fact caused by the Federal Reserve feeding too much credit into the banking system, i.e., enabling the banking system to increase leverage too much.

Dr. Parks notes that the price level of the U.S. was stable until President Nixon defaulted on the U.S. promise to redeem dollars for gold.

 

Dr. Parks says that because the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world, when the dollar collapses, the global financial system will also collapse, plunging most of the world into poverty and war.

Dr. Parks admits that as a “practical matter, absent the debacle of a complete collapse, there can be no abrupt changes to our monetary system.”

The continual appreciation of gold against paper money suggests that the monetary system will not be reformed in time to prevent a financial disaster.   The ongoing debt crises in Europe and the U.S. also provide little hope that governments will diverge from their path of monetary disaster as they seek to cure too much debt with more debt.   The only survivors at the end of this mad experiment with fiat money will be those holding the eternal sound currency of gold and silver.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Gold and Silver Soar On Fears Of Massive Central Bank Stimulus

September 3, 2011 by 2 Comments

Precious metals soared across the board this week.  The dismal jobs report released on Friday showed that the American economy has come to a standstill with zero new jobs added in August.

The specter of the US economy plunging back into recession along with imminent banking crises in Europe and the US have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is on the verge of conducting another massive wave of monetary stimulus which will further debase the value of the US dollar.  Apprehension is also growing that the magical Obama plan for “creating” new jobs will involve further borrowing by an already bankrupt  American empire.

Also lurking in the background is the fear of coordinated US and European central bank intervention (money printing) to contain the collapse of the European banking system.  Despite the purchase of hundreds of billions of dollars of Spanish, Greek and Italian debt by the European Central Bank, rising interest rates are forecasting default by numerous sovereign states in the European Union.   Rates are rising again on Italian debt and the rate on one year Greek paper now exceeds 70%.  The yields on Greek debt indicate that default is now a certainty and the losses by insolvent European banks holding PIGS debt will require unprecedented government bailouts to prevent complete financial chaos.

Soaring gold prices have been predicting the collapse of paper money currencies.  As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gold soared on Friday by $54.25 to $1,875.25.  In later New York trading, gold continued higher closing at $1,885.20.  Gold is only $2.25 below the all time London close of $1,877.50 reached on August 22nd.

Precious Metals Prices Sept 2
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,875.25 +87.25 +4.88%
Silver $42.50 +1.44 +3.51%
Platinum $1,873.00 +61.00 +3.37%
Palladium $785.00 +38.00 +5.09%

As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, silver gained $1.44 on the week to $42.50 and continued to rise in later New York trading to $43.35.   After consolidating in the $34 range, silver has resumed its uptrend and is likely to hit new all time highs before year end.

 

Silver - courtesy stockcharts.com

Platinum soared by $61 on the week to close at $1,873 while palladium finished up $38 to close at $785.

Precious metals may correct after strong advances, but the fundamental case for owning them is growing geometrically.  Expanding deficits and wild money printing will continue as policy makers continue their futile attempts to produce economic recovery by adding more debt to a system already collapsing from the burden of excessive debt.   Continue to increase gold and silver positions on any pullbacks.

 

Gold - courtesy stockcharts.com

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, Weekly Recap Tagged With: , , , ,

Gold And Silver ETF Holdings Remain Steady As Gold Plunges

August 25, 2011 by 1 Comment

Gold’s non stop advance since early July saw a rapid reversal on Wednesday as gold lost $104.20 to close at $1,752.30 in New York trading.

Gold prices have soared this year on fears of another financial crisis and the continual debasement of paper currencies by governments that are tottering on the brink of default.  Gold began the year at $1,388.50 and by early May traded over $1,550.  After consolidating for two months, gold broke out of its trading range in early July and breached the $1,900 level earlier this week.  Despite today’s sharp sell off, gold is still up $363.80 or 26% for 2011.

As short term trend traders, hedge funds and speculative buyers jumped into gold, prices became overbought with gold trading $423 above its 200 day moving average.  The same traders playing gold for short term profits jumped out just as quickly when prices started to reverse.  Two factors that encouraged profit taking in gold were reports that the Fed would not immediately announce another round of money printing and the sharp hike in margin requirements on gold futures by the CME Group.

On a short term basis gold was overbought and due for a correction after an almost vertical rise from $1,500 as can be seen below.

 

Gold - courtesy stockcharts.com

A view of a longer term chart gives a different perspective – the long term bull market in gold remains intact and the fundamental reasons for owning gold have not changed.

 

Gold - courtesy stockcharts.com

The non stop “gold bubble” chatter by talking heads who missed participating in the decades long gold rally are focusing on a short term price movement instead of the fundamentals that will continue to drive gold prices higher.  Every bull market has corrections and are an opportunity to add to positions.  As a long term investor in gold since the early 1990’s, I have seen other investors trade in and out, losing money each time, instead of simply going with the long term bull trend.

Many analysts have expressed concern that investors might be panicked out of the GLD causing the price of gold to plunge.  This does not seem to be the case despite the large drop in gold prices this week.  As of Wednesday, the GLD gold holdings declined by only 39.67 tonnes.  In addition, when silver spiked in early May, trading volume in the SLV exploded by 750% above the daily average trading volume.  Despite the volatility in gold this week, trading volume in the GLD expanded by only 350% above average trading volumes.  This would seem to indicate that investment in the GLD is a core holding by long term gold investors who are not inclined to sell on normal price corrections.

The SPDR Gold Trust currently holds 39.6 million ounces of gold valued at $70.1 billion.  There has been much hype about the value of the GLD exceeding that of the SPDR S&P 500.  A more proper context for comparison is to compare the value of the GLD to the increase in sovereign debt and money printing.  Bernanke’s latest episode of QE2 money printing was 850% larger than the entire value of the GLD and you can count on additional Fed currency debasement in the future.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

August 24-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,232.31 -39.67 -48.41
SLV 9,836.18 +109.08 -1,085.39

The iShares Silver Trust holdings gained 109.08 tonnes for the week ending August 24, despite the slide in silver prices.  The SLV has been building a base in the $35 to $40 range since the May correction.   Many analysts proclaimed that the “bubble” in silver prices had burst after the sharp price correction in May.  From a long term perspective, the May correction did little to diminish either the bullish fundamentals or the long term upward trend in silver prices.

 

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The SLV currently holds 316.2 million ounces of silver valued at $13.3 billion.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

Americans Remain Tragically Underinvested In Gold And Silver

August 19, 2011 by 1 Comment

As predicted many times in this blog, the over indebted and over leveraged world financial system is starting to unravel at warp speed.   Massive amounts of  borrowing by governments during the financial meltdown of 2008 has effectively put many sovereign states at the limits of their borrowing ability.

A rapidly contracting economy and job losses will result in a flood of defaults in the private sector by both businesses and individuals.  A vicious self reinforcing cycle of defaults will cause major banking failures that a bankrupt FDIC will be unable to contain.  Banking holidays will become routine, the jobless rate will triple, the middle class will face financial destruction and social unrest will explode across the country.

Crushing levels of debt will be the trigger that causes an economic depression that will make the 1930’s look like a minor recession.  Eventually, the creative destruction of capitalism (as described by economist Joseph Schumpeter) will extinguish debt burdens through defaults, allow for economic recovery and the creation of new wealth.  The downside to recovery through creative destruction, however, is that existing wealth is mercilessly devalued as paper based asset wealth is destroyed.  At this point, which would you prefer to own – a pile of paper dollars or a stack of American Gold Eagles?

The ultimate restructuring of a fiat based monetary system to one backed by more than promises is inevitable.  The timing of the event is the only open question since governments will use every power, legal or otherwise, to prevent the scenario described above.  Unfortunately, for holders of paper financial assets, the only viable option available for governments at this point are the printing presses.  The ocean of paper currencies that will be printed to “save the system” will debase paper financial assets, reducing their purchasing power to virtually nothing.

Gold, the only enduring currency, has been forecasting a financial crisis for the past decade and especially since 2008.  As economic Armageddon looms, however, most Americans remain tragically under invested in gold and silver.  Conventional financial planners and investment advisers recommend a zero or minor position in precious metals even as gold steadily outperforms stocks, bank savings and other financial assets.

 

S&P vs Gold - courtesy yahoo finance

Making matters worse, many Americans are selling the little amount of gold and silver that they do own as the conventional press publishes “gold bubble” articles every time gold hits a new high.  As reported in coinupdate.com, one major dealer reports that:

As for the general public, they have been selling jewelry by the droves this past week.  On Tuesday, my companies set a record going back more than 30 years for the most number of purchases from the public in a single day.  We broke that record Wednesday and weren’t that far from another all-time record on Thursday.  The main pieces that customers have brought to us have been gold jewelry.  The amount of silver and platinum jewelry has remained steady.

We talk with dozens of coin dealers around Michigan and the country every day.  They are reporting the exact same pattern of activity as we are experiencing.

Perhaps many of these sellers are dumping their gold jewelry due to economic duress, but if they were expecting gold to continue to soar higher, they would not be selling.  The bull market in gold and silver is just beginning and those who hold significant positions will preserve and expand their wealth.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , ,

SPDR Gold Trust And iShares Silver Trust Holdings Decline

August 18, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Gold holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) declined slightly on the week by 24.54 tonnes after a gain of 10.22 tonnes in the previous week.   GLD  gold holdings have declined by 8.74 tonnes since the beginning of the year.   The all time high holdings of the GLD occurred on June 29, 2010 when the Trust’s holdings reached 1,320.47 tonnes.

As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gold started the year at $1,388.50.  Gold closed in Wednesday trading at $1,790.00 for a gain of $401.50 or 28.9% on the year.  Gold has been in a steady, virtually uninterrupted uptrend since late 2008.  At the beginning of July, the price trend of gold entered an accelerated uptrend.

 

GOLD - COURTESY KITCO.COM

Although a pullback is possible after an almost vertical rise of $256 since July 1st, it is just as likely that gold could confound the skeptics and continue to rise.  The increase in gold prices for the past  decade has reflected widespread apprehension over the value of paper currencies.  The world economy never recovered from the financial crisis starting in 2008 despite the borrowing and printing of trillions of dollars by world central banks and governments.  The increase in the price of gold is reflecting the growing realization that governments and central banks no longer have the ability to contain a second full blown financial crisis.  Under this scenario, gold effectively has no ceiling price.

The GLD is the largest gold exchange traded fund with 40.9 million ounces of gold.  According to Bloomberg, the total holdings of all  major gold  ETFs worldwide amount to 70.7 million ounces of gold.  Holdings of all gold ETFs worldwide have increased by 4.1 million ounces or 6.2% since the beginning of the year.

The SPDR Gold Trust currently holds 40.9 million ounces of gold valued at $73.2 billion.  For perspective, the entire value of the GLD would fund less than 18 days of US Government deficit spending which is projected to exceed $1.5 trillion this year.

 

GLD - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The GLD closed the day at $174.42, fractionally below its all time high of $175.13

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

August 17-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,271.98 -24.54 -8.74
SLV 9,727.10 -45.46 -1,194.47

Holdings of the iShares Silver Trust declined by 45.46 tonnes on the week after a decline of 86.36 tonnes in the previous week.  Since July 1st, the SLV has gained 190.95 tonnes.

After a price correction in early May, silver has recovered in price and is building a base in the $40 range before the next move up.  Silver has gained $6.17 or 18.2% since July 1st, rising from $33.85 to $40.02.

 

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The SLV currently holds 312.7 million ounces of silver valued at $12.5 billion.  Investors in the SLV have had an annual rate of return of 25% over the past three years.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Ultimate Price Of Gold Will Shock The World As Loss Of Global Confidence Leads To Economic Collapse

August 13, 2011 by 1 Comment

Gold had another stellar week while stock markets gyrated wildly.   As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gold gained $77.25 on the week, hitting all time highs and closing at $1,736.   After the London close, gold recovered from an earlier pullback and closed in New York trading at $1,747.30, up $11.30 from the London close.

Silver ending the week down slightly at $38.29 while platinum gained $91 to $1,800 and palladium edged up $5 to $747.

Gold has gained $253 or 17% since July 1st when it closed at $1,483.00.  The rapid price gains have pushed gold above its long term trend line.  Gold is now trading at $290 (or 20%) above its 200 day moving average.  On previous occasions in late 2009 and the fall of 2010 gold also traded more than $200 dollars above the 200 day moving average and the result was a minor pullback or sideways consolidation.

 

Gold - courtesy kitco.com

Gold may be overbought on a short term basis but the fundamental reasons for owning gold are expanding exponentially.  Public realization that dysfunctional governments are incapable of solving our economic problems is resulting in a loss of confidence.  A loss of confidence combined with a debt crisis and out of control spending can have only one result – increasingly worthless paper money and stocks as the  world central banks attempt to prevent an economic collapse with zero interest rates and printed money.

Gold Outperforms paper stocks

Government and  central bank policies have been destroying the value of the US currency for decades and have given birth to crashing housing markets, lower incomes, depression level unemployment and numerous stock market crashes.  When one  considers that the last hope of preventing an all out depression now lies in the hands of the very central banks who have already brought Hell down upon us, we should all be very, very scared.

If the last ditch efforts of the Central Banks fail to contain the financial collapse that is imminent, expect to see governments institute totalitarian measures in order to maintain a semblance of organized society.  As bankrupt empires collapse, they also attempt to expropriate every last dollar of wealth from its citizens in order to maintain their grip on power as long as possible.

The most recent large scale example of the implosion of an empire was the USSR, whose sudden collapse surprised CIA analysts who had been studying the Soviet Empire in detail for decades.  Ironically, those even more surprised by the collapse of the USSR were the politicians and bureaucrats who ran the country into the ground as they remained oblivious to their economy killing policies.  Tragically, misguided and misinformed middle class citizens of the USSR saw the value of their rubles collapse along with pension plans, bank savings and other financial assets.  Those who walked away with more than they had, other than corrupt politicians, were those few citizens who converted paper money into gold or silver before the financial system imploded.

A potential short term price correction in gold is a meaningless concern.  Developed world economies are in inexorably decline from which there is no escape.  The primary concern for most US citizens should be to develop a financial strategy that does not leave them impoverished when the end game arrives.

Unfortunately, most Americans have a religious conviction that “The Government” will save and nourish them as has been promised by every politician of this century.  These promises will all be broken but Americans won’t believe it until it happens, at which point there is no financial escape.

As a worldwide systemic financial collapse grows more probable with each passing day, Americans remain in denial and place their life savings in US government debt and bank accounts, secure with the promise that they are “guaranteed by the government”.   Sorry folks, bankrupt governments don’t keep promises.  The proof of American citizens’ faith in paper assets is their very low commitment to gold and silver.  The public will belatedly turn to gold and silver en masse when the system starts crashing down around them.  This event will be the real rush to gold and at that point, prices will rise thousands of dollars per week.

When establishment journalists warn of a “bubble” or “top” in gold, don’t get annoyed – simply buy more gold, especially on pullbacks.  The ultimate price of gold will wind up shocking even the biggest gold bulls.  When gold demand is insatiable and supply very limited, attempting to figure out the ultimate high price for gold is a fruitless exercise. (see Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver).

Precious Metals Prices 8/12/11
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,736.00 +$77.25 +4.66%
Silver $38.29 -$0.95 -2.42%
Platinum $1,800.00 +$91.00 +5.32%
Palladium $747.00 +$5.00 +0.67%

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, US Debt Crisis, Weekly Recap Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Gold ETF Holdings Hit All Time High As Silver ETF Holdings Decline

August 11, 2011 by 2 Comments

The SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) added 10.22 tonnes of gold since last week as gold prices continue to surge higher.  The GLD now has a net gain in gold holdings of 15.80 tonnes since the first of the year.  The all time high holdings of the Gold Shares Trust was 1320.47 tonnes reached on June 29, 2010.

The value of the GLD during August has increased by 12.1% to $73.9 billion on high volume.  During July, the highest volume day for the GDL was on July 13th when 25.2 million shares traded.  On August 8th, 9th and 10th, volume on the GLD exceeded 40 million shares.  On previous occasions when trading volume in the GLD surged, gold prices either pulled back slightly or consolidated in sideways trading before continuing higher.

All of the fundamental factors that have been pushing gold prices higher for the past decade are now being amplified by a looming currency collapse and sovereign debt crises.  Adding to concerns is the apparent inability of central banks and governments to contain the rapidly expanding financial crisis.

As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gold started the year at $1388.50 and closed Wednesday in New York trading at $1796.50, up $51.30.  Gold has gained $407.90 or 29.4% since the first of the year.

Total holdings of all gold ETFs recently reached a record of 2,276 tonnes of gold, valued at $130 billion.  The GLD currently holds 41.7 million ounces of gold valued at $73.9 billion.

GLD - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

 

The GLD hit a new all time high in Wednesday trading, closing at $174.58, up $5.97.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

August 10-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,296.52 +10.22 +15.80
SLV 9,772.56 -86.36 -1,149.01

Holdings of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) declined by 86.36 tonnes on the week but have gained 236.41 tonnes since July 1st when silver prices began rallying.

Silver prices have not kept pace with the increase in gold prices as investors worry about reduced industrial demand for silver in a severe economic downturn.  Silver closed Wednesday at $39.39, up $1.58.  Silver began the year at $30.67 and is now up by $8.72 on the year returning investors a gain of 28.4%.

The SLV peaked in late April at the $50 level before prices corrected to the low 30’s.  The SLV has had an average annualized total return of 25% over the past three years.

The iShares Silver Trust currently holds 314.2 million ounces of silver valued at $12 billion.

 

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

As the world economy marches off the edge of the cliff and many wonder why, we look back at some prophetic  thoughts from Bill Murphy, co-founder of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) in an interview with The Motley Fool in June 2010.

“What’s important for your readership to understand is that the markets have been made dysfunctional by U.S. policy and what these bullion banks are doing. Even Alan Greenspan said recently that interest rates were left too low for too long. Had the gold price been allowed to trade freely, interest rates wouldn’t have been able to stay down as low as they were. It would have been a warning sign for people not to get involved in the behavior that they did … not to go with all of the risks that developed. And there’s a good likelihood that the disaster would have been nowhere near as bad as it was.

“Alan Greenspan called gold a “thermometer.” So they diffused the thermometer by keeping the gold price managed. And what’s important for people to understand now is that the same thing is going on. If we’re correct, it’s going to lead to a bigger catastrophe, because no one has learned any lessons.”

 

 

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