May 18, 2024

Gold and Silver News and Headlines – Gold Owners Get Nervous

Precious metals advanced across the board today, with palladium the stellar performer with a 2.86% gain.  Gold gained $9.70 to $1685.30, silver tacked on $0.48 to $33.53, platinum rose $18 to $1633.00 and palladium jumped $19.00 to $689.00.

Although precious metals recently hit a selling storm (see The Flash Crash in Gold), precious metals remain up strongly on the year and gold is up $257.20 per ounce or 18% over the past year.  The following chart show the gains for the year on the precious metals group.  All prices per the London PM Fix closing price.

GOLD SILVER PLATINUM PALLADIUM
JAN 3RD $1,590.00 $28.78 $1,406.00 $664.00
MARCH 7TH $1,677.50 $33.17 $1,627.00 $678.00
$ GAIN $87.50 $4.39 $221.00 $14.00
% GAIN 5.50% 15.25% 15.72% 2.11%

Here’s a brief round up of some of the latest thoughtful coverage on gold and silver related news.

Free Von Nothaus from the tyranny of unjust government actions – Judging Silver or Something Else?

As I look at the circumstances, I do not see that von Nothaus or his Liberty Dollar products victimized anyone. In contrast, those who chose to keep Federal Reserve Notes and coinage of the U.S. Mint have been victimized by loss of purchasing power. If anything, and I say this with all due respect, it seems to me that it would be more sensible and appropriate to prosecute those who have victimized American citizens through the depreciation of the “money” issued by the U.S. government.

US Mint Drops Price of Gold Products

With all of the pricing data now available, the US Mint’s gold numismatic products are set for a two tier decrease. This will reduce prices by the equivalent of $100 per ounce of gold content.

Owning gold is a “privilege, not a right”.  Why The US Confiscated Gold in 1933 and Can It Happen Again?

We previously stated that gold ownership was made illegal on 1st May 1933. What we did not tell you was that U.S. citizens, under Order 6102, were allowed to own up to $100 in gold coin [+5 ounces].

Congress could easily revoke the privilege again. In fact, at no time during this century has the U.S. government recognized the right of private gold ownership.

The privilege, not right, to own gold was restored to U.S. citizens on the 15th August 1974 (not 1971, when Nixon floated the USD against gold and stopped foreign central banks from converting USD to gold). It is pertinent to the thinking behind this series, to understand the importance to government of gold and that the right to confiscate may not be restricted to individuals or institutions but could embrace a nation or two.

It’s believed that some 60% of Germany’s gold is stored outside of Germany and much of it in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. If this is the case one has to ask, in the light of the massive currency swaps engineered by the Fed and the E.C.B. to raise the two tranches of cheap money for European banks, “Was gold swapped too, or was it pledged as collateral?”

The public pressure to repatriate national gold reserves has heightened considerably in the last year. Should Germany want its gold back home, we ask, “Can it get it back or has it already been used in these ways?

Germany to Review Bundesbank Gold Reserves in Frankfurt, Paris, London and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

German lawmakers are to review Bundesbank controls of and management of Germany’s gold reserves.  Parliament’s Budget Committee will assess how the central bank manages its inventory of Germany’s gold bullion bars that are believed to be stored in Frankfurt, Paris, London and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to German newspaper Bild.

There is increasing nervousness amongst the German public, German politicians and indeed the Bundesbank itself regarding the gigantic risk on the balance sheet of Germany’s central bank and this is leading some in Germany to voice concerns about the location and exact amount of Germany’s gold reserves.

The eurozone’s central bank system is massively imbalanced after the ECB’s balance sheet surged to a record 3.02 trillion euros ($3.96 trillion) last week, 31% bigger than the German economy, after a second tranche of three-year loans.

The concern is that were the eurozone to collapse, Bundesbank’s losses could be half a trillion euros – more than one-and-a-half times the size of the Germany’s annual budget.

In that scenario, Germany’s national patrimony of gold bullion reserves would be needed to support the currency – whether that be a new euro or a return to the Deutsche mark.

Bernanke Spooks Gold

Instead, this selloff was sparked not by a development, but a non-development. In his address to Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered no clue as to when the Federal Reserve would unleash its next round of quantitative easing.

The markets took this as a sign that the monetary madness is coming to an end, which would bode poorly for precious metals. Metals are increasingly seen as substitutes for continuously debased fiat money, and tend to do well when new liquidity injections are announced.

Bernanke’s failure to telegraph more printing means nothing. Investors are craving a return to normalcy, which means more prudent monetary policy. As a result, many are grasping at straws. But I believe these hopes are premature, and that gold will be buoyed by easy money for quite some time.

In addition, gold will likely be favored by the greatest financial struggle of the coming decade: China’s plans to replace the United States as the dominant economic power.

Buy Japanese Bonds At 0.05% And Get A Gold Coin

Japan began selling special government bonds Monday aimed at raising funds for reconstruction from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, saying it will present buyers with commemorative gold coins imprinted with an image of the “miracle pine” that survived the killer tsunami when the bonds mature in three years.

The coins — worth ¥10,000 each, and silver coins worth ¥1,000 — are engraved with the design of the 30-meter-high pine in Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, that was the only one of about 70,000 pines on a stretch of coast to survive the massive tsunami.

Peter Schiff on why Buffett is wrong about gold – Buffett’s Bursting Bubble

The gold doomsayers have found their champion in the media’s favorite financial advisor and one of the world’s richest men. Warren Buffett, the man dubbed the “Oracle of Omaha,” has repeatedly and publicly denied that gold is an investment, and called gold buyers “speculators” and people “who fear almost all other assets.” In fact, Buffett claims that gold’s rise has the same characteristics as the housing and dot-com bubbles, and it is only a matter of time before it reverses course. He doesn’t mean that the price will decline because of austerity measures and a free-market interest rate, mind you. He just asserts that because he’s deemed it a bubble, it will inevitably burst.

Gold prices will only go down when governments change course and make significant cuts. Until then, gold is not in a bubble. It’s the only way to protect your wealth; and in the current economic condition, it’s poised to go much higher. I think it’s high time Buffett takes to heart his father’s wise words: “For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money.”

The Volatile Ride To Higher Gold

Back in 1980, Phase Three only lasted for 21 days, but increased 66% in that time span. Considering the ten year time span of Phase One, and my projection for Phase Two, I feel that Phase Three (which starts in 2015) will last for six months and drive gold up to over $6,000 per ounce. If the world’s financial leaders decide to return to a Gold Standard, or if gold bullion confiscation becomes the government’s reaction to severe inflation, my projections would escalate. Possible other government reactions that can affect my projections negatively are: limiting gold ownership, restrictions on transporting or trading, and any Gold windfall profits tax.

 

The Gold Bubble Debate And The Flash Crash In Gold

The “flash crash” in gold that occurred on Wednesday seemed to have as much logic behind it as the infamous stock market flash crash of May 6, 2010 when the Dow Jones quickly plunged 1,000 points for no particular reason.

Yesterday’s extraordinary price action in the precious metals has again resulted in mainstream press speculation about whether the “gold bubble” has burst.  For some perspective on that topic, Gold Bullion International has put together a great graphic – “Is Gold A Bubble?” which can be viewed below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is also a very bullish aspect to gold’s flash crash which has gone relatively unmentioned.  For every seller there is a buyer and someone was more than happy to buy millions of ounces of gold at a discount.  Discussing this bullish side of the gold smash down, Barry Stuppler of Mint State Gold asks “Who Bought The 34 Million Ounces of Gold?”

First of all, the volume for the CME’s most active gold contract, which is now April 2012, was 344,994 one hundred ounce contracts (34,499,400 oz was traded) a record high. Gold prices dropped $77 per ounce yesterday based on slightly negative news, specifically the lack of mentioning a possible QE3 by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke’s congressional testimony does not change any of the fundamental reasons to own gold.

During my 50+ year career of trading gold I have seen similar exceptional days like this.  Traders call this type of day “shaking out the weak hands”, because many small investors and speculators are driven out of the market by stop loss sell orders and margin calls. So, who bought the 34 million ounces of gold and what will happen next?

I think that trading on today, Friday and Monday will tell the tale. If gold can stay above important $1,700 per ounce level by the end of Monday’s trading and hopefully rally above $1,725 per ounce, I believe this will tell us it was a cleaning out of small investors and speculators.  On the other hand if gold stays below $1,700 per ounce and begins trading at $1,680 or below, that could indicate that today’s rally was at “Dead Cat Bounce”.

Gold And Silver Bullion Coin Sales Plunge In February

The latest production figures from the U.S. Mint show a dramatic decline in the sale of both gold and silver bullion coins.

According to the U.S. Mint, sales of American Gold Eagle bullion coins in February 2012 totaled 21,000 ounces, a decrease of 83.5% from January sales of  127,000 ounces.  Gold bullion coin sales declined by 77.3% from the prior year when a total of 92,500 ounces were sold in February 2011.

Sales of the American Gold Eagle bullion coins during February is the lowest since June 2008 when the Mint sold 15,500 ounces.  During 2011, the U.S. Mint sold an average of 83,333 ounces of gold bullion coins each month and rang up annual sales of 1,000,000 ounces.  During 2011, sales of the gold bullion coins declined for the third consecutive year.

Sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins also declined dramatically during February.  The U.S. Mint reports total February sales of 1,490,000 silver bullion coins, down 76.6% compared to 6,107,000 during the previous month.  Sales of the silver bullion coins during February declined by 54% from February 2011 sales of 3,240,000 ounces.  Sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins were the lowest since November 2011 when the U.S. Mint sold 1,384,000 ounces.

Gold and silver sales detailed above do not include U.S. Mint gold and silver numismatic coins which are sold directly to the public.

The American Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins cannot be directly purchased by the public from the U.S. Mint.  The U.S. Mint sells the gold and silver eagle bullion coins only to a network of authorized purchasers (AP’s) who in turn resell them to the public and secondary retailers.  The U.S. Mint determined that the AP distribution system was the most efficient means of retailing coins to the public at competitive prices.

Total yearly U.S. Mint gold bullion coin sales from January 1, 2000 to February 29, 2012 are shown below.

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales By Year
Year Total Ounces Sold
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 1,000,000
2012 148,000
7,397,500
Note: 2012 total through February 29, 2012

Shown below are the yearly U.S. Mint sales figures since 2000 for the American Silver Eagle bullion coins.   Sales totals for 2012 are through February.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coin Sales
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000 9,133,000
2001 8,827,500
2002 10,475,500
2003 9,153,500
2004 9,617,000
2005 8,405,000
2006 10,021,000
2007 9,887,000
2008 19,583,500
2009 28,766,500
2010 34,662,500
2011 39,868,500
2012 7,597,000
TOTAL 205,997,500

The U.S. public has acquired over 200 million ounces of American Silver Eagle bullion coins since 2000 which are now valued at roughly $7.4 billion.  By comparison, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) currently holds 313 million ounces of silver bullion valued at $11.7 billion.

Gold and Silver Plunge On Bernanke’s Remarks – What Happens Next?

The price of gold and silver plunged today after investors concluded that the Federal Reserve had no immediate plans for further quantitative easing.  In testimony to Congress Fed Chairman Bernanke made positive comments on future U.S. economic growth.  When Bernanke gave no indication that further monetary easing  would be necessary, a selling stampede began in the precious metals markets.

In New York trading, gold closed down $87.20 for a 4.9% loss on the day and silver declined by $2.29, down 6.2%.  Platinum got rocked with a $40 decline to $1,685 and palladium gave up $18 to close at $707.

Why the violent sell off in precious metals when the Federal Reserve and other central banks worldwide are still printing money on a massive scale?  For some thoughts on today’s precious metals rout and what’s likely to happen next, here are some links to excellent gold and silver related stories and blog posts:

Gold Falls In “Manic” Plunge

Explanations from various money managers on why gold and silver sold off.  Investors expecting continued monetary easing were disappointed.  William O’Neill, partner at Logic Advisors said “Bernanke’s comments seem to have eliminated hope of U.S. quantitative easing coming anytime soon.”

Gold, Silver Tumble on Heavy Profit Taking

Importantly, the gold and silver futures markets were ripe for corrective, technical and profit-taking pullbacks following recent strong gains that had sent gold and silver prices to multi-month highs. The Bernanke testimony gave many traders and investors an excuse to “ring the cash” register and take some profits. Also, veteran commodity market watchers know these markets can make sudden, unexpected price moves to temporarily roil investors and traders.

Kitco Interviews GATA Chairman

Interview with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy on today’s smashdown in the gold and silver markets.

Bernanke Tries Talking Down Commodities

If one basically states that the economy is doing better – not out of the woods yet but better – and all the hedgies are leveraged to the gills because the FED GAVE THEM THE GREEN LIGHT TO DO EXACTLY THAT when it first announced that it would keep this near zero interest rate policy out to the end of 2014, then it is a simple matter of throwing a bit of uncertainty in that regards to generate a bout of selling. Toss in the same permabears as always capping at the highs of the day and the algorithms did the rest of the work as the stops were picked off.

First Eagle’s Eveillard Openly Suspects Gold Market Rigging

Gold fund manager Jean-Marie Eveillard has just told King World News that he suspects that today’s pounding of the gold price was a matter of central bank intervention:

Eveillard, who manages $50 billion in assets, is among the few respectables in the gold world, and his stunning acknowledgment today is the price the Western central banks must begin paying for their increasingly brazen market rigging. It is a sign that GATA is making progress, however slow.

Progress could be made a lot faster, as Eveillard and a few other respectables might blow the market rigging to smithereens if they mustered a little courage and activism, such as a donation to GATA, which has been documenting, litigating against, and screaming about gold market rigging for years:

Today Window Dressing Fall In Gold

Please do not be bothered by today’s intervention. The following news is what creates the absolute need for QE.

It is the thesis of my Formula of 2006 of no major recovery that gives the foundation to my thesis of QE to Infinity.

Has serial money printer Bernanke suddenly converted to become a staunch proponent of a sound dollar?  Don’t bet your gold on that one.  As noted in a previous post, The Federal Reserve Can’t Produce Oil, Food or Jobs But They Will Continue to Produce Dollars.

Late note – gold is up $20.60 in Asian trading.

What Is Google Trends Telling Us About Gold?

It has been some time since we last looked at what Google Trends can tell us about the future price of gold.

Google Trends allows us to see volume trends for specific search items related to gold.  In the past, extreme spikes in search volume have correlated closely with major turning points in the gold market.  What is the predictive power of Google Trends telling us about gold today?

When we looked at Google Trends in March 2009, we examined search engine results for “Sell Gold” and “Buy Gold” (see What Can Google Trends Tell Us About Gold?).  It was observed that as gold was hitting its peak in March 2008, there was a spike in search volume for “Sell Gold”.  After the brutal sell off that correlated with the substantial decline in all asset categories due to the financial meltdown during 2008, there was a spike in “Buy Gold” search inquiries that correlated closely to the gold bottom in late 2008.

What is Google Trends telling us today, after gold’s increase of $183 per ounce since the beginning of the year?

As we can see from the chart below, a huge spike in search queries for “Sell Gold” corresponded closely to the all time high in the price of gold at $1,895 reached in September 2011.  The current lack of search volume queries for “Sell Gold” as well as the decline in news reference volume (despite gold’s large price increase since the beginning of the year) is a clear bullish signal for gold.

"Sell Gold"

 

Another indicator suggesting that the general public is totally apathetic on gold is seen by viewing the Google Trends results for “Gold Investment”.   Last year, search queries for “Gold Investment” spiked as gold was reaching its September highs.  Despite the huge gold rally of 2012, low news volume and search queries for “Gold Investment” indicate very low interest in gold and constitute a contrary bullish indicator.

"Gold Investment"

 

Finally, a look at the volume of search queries for “Gold” also indicates that the current gold rally has a long ways to go.  Even as the price of gold has increased non stop since January, the volume of search queries and news references has plunged.

"Gold"

 

The very low search inquiries for gold as shown in Google Trends is a strong contrary bullish indicator.  The risk of buying gold right now seems exceptionally low and the rewards exceptionally high.

Last year, Google Trends search inquiries on gold did not flash a sell signal until after gold had spiked by 26%.  If the same ratio applies going forward, “Google Gold Trends” won’t flash a sell signal until gold prices reach the $2,250 range.

Gold and Silver News & Headlines – February 2012

Gold and silver continue their strong 2012 advance with relatively sparse mainstream press headlines.  Gold is now only $114 per ounce below the all time high of $1,895 reached on September 6, 2011 and silver looks more and more like it is getting ready to challenge the $50 range last seen in mid 2011.

Based on the closing London Fix Price, gold has advanced from $1,598.00 at the beginning of the year to today’s closing price of  $1,781.00, for a gain of 11.5% or $183 per ounce.  Silver’s advance has been even more dramatic.  Since the start of the year, silver has risen 23.7% to $35.60 per ounce, a gain of $6.82 per ounce.

Here are some recent links to excellent gold and silver related stories and blog posts:

One-Half Ounce Proof Gold Eagle Sold Out, Some Silver Products Suspended

The one-half ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagles have sold out at the U.S. Mint.  The one ounce Proof Gold Eagle had previously sold out last October.  In addition, some silver numismatic product sales have been suspended pending pricing updates due to the rapid rise in silver prices.

The Financial System Is Sick – Are Precious Metals The Cure?

Over thousands of years, gold and silver are the only currencies that have not failed and have protected wealth.  With rampant worldwide money printing, the wealth of nations is being stolen through endless money printing.  Expect the severely undervalued gold stocks to rally strongly.

Gold Market of the 1970s Was A Dress Rehearsal

Jim Sinclair sees QE to infinity and persuasively argues that the only tool left in the toolbox is money printing which is required to prevent a global implosion from towering levels of debt.

Gold Should Be $2,100 – $2,200 Right Now

Great interview with Jim Puplava who discusses central bank money printing, financial repression, economic issues and why gold is undervalued by at least 22%.

Why The U.S. Government Confiscated Gold in 1933 – Can It Happen Again?

The U.S. government is already seizing the wealth of millions of Americans through financial repression.  Through executive order U.S. citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933 through 1974.  Julian Phillips examines the reasons why this occurred and wonders if  it could happen again?

Silver Price Rises Twice As Fast As Gold As The Eurozone Floods With Money

Silver has been on a tear this year, up 24% compared to an increase of 12% for gold.  How should investors react to position themselves  if gold soars over $2,000 and silver spikes to over $50?

Ex-Fed Governor Warsh Again Confirms Gold Price Suppression

GATA highlights the role of governments in financial repression and suppression of gold prices.  Ex Fed Governor Kevin Warsh notes the growing call in Europe and the U.S. to devalue debts through money printing and higher inflation.  Warsh says that “Such an inflation tax would transfer wealth from those who have lent money, in good faith, to the borrowers.  Inflation is a blunt and inappropriate instrument for assigning winners and losers from profligate fiscal policy or excessive borrowing by private individuals and firms.”

If Gold Could Talk

Terrific article on the enduring characteristics of gold, why gold is money and how much gold should an investor own?  Be prepared to get your checkbook out after reading this article.  Whatever amount of gold you currently own, it’s not enough!

Gold Remains The Best Alternative To Paper Money

Two examples of the frustrations that some gold investors have gone through in the past year offers a valuable lesson to long term gold investors.

  1. During 2011, despite being heavily invested in gold, John Paulson’s Gold Fund wound up losing 11% of its value.  This despite the fact that gold bullion gained $142.50 during 2011, closing the year at $1,531.00, up 10.2% (see How Did An Investment Pro Lose Money Investing in Gold?).
  2. Investors in the $4.4 billion Vanguard Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX) which holds almost all of its assets in a diversified portfolio of precious metal mining stocks dropped by a stunning 27.4% last year, declining from $26.71 on January 3rd to $19.39 on December 30, 2011.

In both of the above cases, the declines in value were primarily due to the large under performance of gold stocks to gold bullion during 2011.  Nonetheless, nothing stings more than picking the right asset class only to somehow wind up losing.  An investor bullish on gold and investing completely in gold stocks would have had a disastrous year.  An investor with a large position in gold, diversified across gold mining stocks, gold bullion and gold ETFs would have performed substantially better.

Although gold stocks can often outperform gold bullion, many investors may lack the expertise to pick the best gold stock or gold mutual fund.  The best strategy for most small gold investors is to buy physical gold bullion at regular intervals with a commitment to a long term holding period.  Over the years, I have seen far too many uninformed investors who want a position in gold wind up trading speculative junior gold stocks, often times resulting in large losses.  Gold mining stock prices can be volatile and even when an investor selects quality gold stocks, the temptation to liquidate a position during  price weakness often results in losses.

The gold investor who has purchased gold bullion consistently over the past decade has been amply rewarded and there is no reason to expect this trend to change.

Meanwhile, John Paulson remains committed to gold and recently told Bloomberg News that he personally owns over half of the $1.2 billion Gold Fund he manages.

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager seeking to rebound from record losses in 2011, told investors his Gold Fund will outperform his other strategies over five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The billionaire, at a meeting yesterday at the Metropolitan Club in New York, said the metal is the best hedge against currency debasement as countries inject money into their economies, said the person, who attended the event and asked not to be named because the information is private. Paulson also cited gold as a hedge against the euro currency, as a breakup may occur, and an eventual increase in inflation.

The manager told clients his own money comprises 55 percent of the Gold Fund’s $1.2 billion in assets, the person said. The fund, which can buy derivatives and other gold-related securities, declined 11 percent last year after the metal slumped 14 percent in the final four months.

Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may continue to affect bullion in the near term, Paulson, whose firm manages $23 billion, said this month in a year-end letter to investors. The metal serves as the best long-term alternative to paper currencies, he said.

“We remain excited about the outlook for the Paulson Gold Funds over the next few years,” he said in the letter. “We would argue that the potential upside in gold outweighs the potential downside.”

In addition to his Gold Fund, Paulson also holds a large position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF, valued at $2.9 billion.  As of February 24, 2011, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 41.3 million ounces of gold valued at $73.4 billion.

An Undervalued Gold Stock That Could Double In Price

Leveraged earnings gains from rising gold prices have historically resulted in gold stocks outperforming gold bullion.   From 2000 to the highs of 2008, the PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) rose by 345% compared to a 252% increase in the price of gold.

Over the past two years, the out performance of gold stocks has come to a dead halt despite the surge in gold prices.  From $1,121.50 in January of 2010, gold has advanced to the current price of $1,781.10 for a gain of $659.60 per ounce or 58.8% while gold stocks have basically flat lined as represented by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

The divergence between gold bullion and gold stocks has resulted in a markdown of world class gold producers, resulting in the best buying opportunity since the 2008 sell off.  John Hathaway, who runs the Tocqueville Gold Fund and has the best track record in the industry recently said this in his Investment Update.

Gold and gold stocks appear to be bottoming in the wake of a four month correction which began in mid -August when the metal peaked at $1900/oz. Bearish sentiment is at extremes not seen in many years. This and a number of other indicators, such as stocks that have been hit by negative sentiment, the downtrend in gold prices since August, and tax loss selling, support our view that a rally lies ahead. This very bullish market set-up, in our opinion, mirrors the extraordinary investment opportunity of the despondent year end in 2007. Even though gold prices have been declining for several months, they finished the year with substantial gains. This suggests that the value represented by gold mining equities held in our portfolio could be extraordinary.

GDX - couresy yahoo.com

Gold price - courtesy kitco.com

Will the glaring price disparity between gold and gold stocks continue?  I have argued in a previous post (see Gold Stocks are Positioned For An Explosive Move Up) that major gold producers with large proven gold reserves are on the bargain table.  The steeply discounted value of gold stocks will ultimately result in gold stock prices surging as the fundamentals of gold stocks are recognized by investors.

The gold stocks most likely to outperform are the ones with the strongest current relative price strength.  One gold stock that fits this criteria and has outperformed the gold stock indexes is Yamana Gold (AUY), a Canadian gold producer.

AUY OUTPERFORMS - courtesy yahoo.com

Yamana has producing, development stage and exploration properties in Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Brazil.  The Company recently announced record fourth and year end results for 2011.  Highlights of Yamana’s performance for 2011 are shown below.

  • Gold production increased by 5% to 916,284 ounces
  • Silver production reached 9.3 million ounces
  • Revenues increased by 29% to $2.2 billion
  • Cash margin increased by 28% to $1,517 per ounce
  • Earning increased by 59% to $713 million equivalent to $0.96 per share
  • Cash flow increased by 48% to $1.3 billion
  • The annual dividend was increased to $0.20 per share
  • The Company’s net earnings were equivalent to $497 per ounce with an average realized gold price per ounce of $1,670.
  • Yamana has industry low cash costs and operates in stable areas
  • Yamana management forecasts that annual sustainable gold production will increase by over 60% to 1.75 million ounces by 2014

Gold prices have surged thus far in 2012 and there is every reason to believe that gold will end the year far higher than its current price (see Fed Lays Groundwork For Price Explosion in Gold and also Why There Is No Upside Limit for Gold and Silver Prices).

The stage is set for an explosive move upwards in Yamana’s stock price based on the confluence of higher gold prices, soaring profits and increased gold production.   Based on the fundamentals, Yamana’s stock is dirt cheap.  The stock is on the verge of breaking out to a new all time high and could easily double in price during 2012.

AUY - COURTESY YAHOO.COM

Black Swan Silver Treasure Plundered By Spain With “Surreptitious” Help From U.S.

Over the years, Odyssey Marine Exploration has discovered hundreds of shipwrecks at the bottom of the vast oceans.  Using state of the art technology, researchers and scientists, the company has recovered vast amounts of treasure and artifacts spanning the thousands of years that mariners have sailed the oceans.

Some of Odyssey’s more recent discoveries include:

  1. The SS Republic, a Civil War era shipwreck from which over 51,000 coins and 14,000 historically significant artifacts were recovered.  The wreck was discovered in 2003 at 1,700 feet below the surface.
  2. The discovery of the HMS Victory in 2008 was described by Odyssey as “one of the most significant shipwrecks in history.  The HMS Victory, the flagship of Admiral Sir John Balchin, went down in 1744.
  3. In 2011, Odyssey fascinated the world with the discovery of two ships that were sunk by enemy fire during the World Wars.  The SS Mantola, a British steamer, torpedoed and sunk by a German submarine on February 8, 1917, is believed to have 600,000 ounces of silver on board.  The SS Gairsoppa, a British cargo ship, was sunk by a German submarine on February 17, 1941 and lies 4,700 meters below the surface.  The SS Gairsoppa is believed to hold about 7,000,000 ounces of silver.  Recovery on both wrecks is scheduled to begin this year.  Under agreements with the UK Government, Odyssey will retain 80% of the cargo salvaged from the two wrecks.

In May 2007,  Odyssey announced the “Black Swan” discovery of a Colonial era shipwreck located off the coast of Portugal.  Odyssey recovered more than 500,000 silver coins that were scattered about on the ocean bottom.  The treasure hoard weighed more than 17 tons which equates to about 545,000 ounces of silver.   In addition to the silver coins, Odyssey also recovered hundreds of gold coins and worked gold from the wreck site.

Based on the facts presented in Odyssey’s website, it seemed clear that the treasure belonged to Odyssey.  Little did Odyssey realize that the U.S. Government was working behind the scenes to overturn established law and strip Odyssey of its rights to the Black Swan treasure.

Black Swan gold - courtesy shipwreck.net

After Odyssey announced the find, the Kingdom of Spain laid claim to the sunken treasure, contending that the wreck was a Spanish sovereign ship and therefore the property of Spain.  Since the shipwreck was clearly in international waters, Odyssey was confident that any claims against its find would not be upheld by the courts.

Black Swan silver - courtesy shipwreck.net

 

Spain claimed that the sunken ship was the Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes, a Spanish merchant ship that was sunk by the British in 1804.  Odyssey maintained that there was no hull or other evidence available at the site to positively identify the ship and, in addition, a number of other ships had gone down in the area.

Odyssey noted that even if the ship could be positively identified as the Nuestra Senora, as a commercial vessel, Spain would have no valid claim to the salvaged treasure.  International law prohibits treasure seekers from claiming salvage rights only to sunken warships and not commercial vessels.  Odyssey also said that Peru, from whom the treasure had been plundered, was also seeking to assert its rights to the silver treasure.

Last week, Odyssey was shocked when the a Federal judge sided with Spain and ordered Odyssey to surrender the gold and silver treasure to Spain.  Odyssey, which held the gold and silver in its custody pending court ruling, said it spent $2.6 million on recovery, transportation and conserving the treasure.  It was not immediately clear if Odyssey would be compensated for its costs.   The value of the recovered treasure has been estimated to be as high as $500 million.

Odyssey was clearly stunned by the court ruling and the lack of a coherent explanation by the Federal judge as to why Spain prevailed in its case against Odyssey.  Spain, which is tottering on the edge of sovereign default, desperately needs the money that the sale of the Black Swan treasure would bring.  Was there some behind the scenes manipulation by the U.S. Government to help Spain?

Based on secret information disclosed by WikiLeaks, Odyssey believes that the court ruling went against them due to “surreptitious negotiations” between the U.S. and Spain and that the court’s decision was “contrary to established law”. Odyssey went to their Congresswoman for help who wrote the following letter to Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State.

Congresswoman Castor raises serious questions about the troubling role of the U.S. Government in manipulating the outcome of Spain’s claim against Odyssey.  Property rights and the rule of law seem to have been trashed by the Government based on some ulterior motive to award the Black Swan treasure to Spain.  The most chilling aspect of this case for holders of precious metals or wealth of any type is that government expropriation of property can be arbitrarily exercised and there is nothing you can do about it.

Platinum To Gold Ratio Plunges – Is This A Buy Signal Or A New Metric?

Platinum is one of the rarest earth elements with the vast majority of deposits found in only one place on earth.  Annual platinum production is only 30 tonnes per year compared to approximately 2,800 tonnes for gold and 23,000 tonnes for silver.

Roughly 80% of annual platinum production comes from only three mines in South Africa.  Siberia and other geographically scattered locations provide the balance of annual platinum production.

Investment demand for platinum constitutes only 10% of annual demand .  Since 90% of platinum demand comes from jewelry and industrial users, the price of platinum can be very volatile.  During an economic downturn,car sales plunge and jewelry is a very discretionary purchase.  During the 2008 financial meltdown, platinum plunged by nearly two thirds of its value compared to a drop of only one third in the price of gold.

 

Platinum - courtesy kitco.com

The ongoing economic turmoil in Europe has contributed to a large drop in the price of platinum.   Last year, platinum declined from $1,887 in August to $1,354 at 2011 year end, a drop of $533 per ounce.  Although platinum has recovered to $1,609, it is considerably undervalued  when viewed through the lens of the platinum to gold ratio.  A platinum to gold ratio below 1.0 is historically a signal that platinum is selling at a bargain price.  The platinum to gold ratio is currently at .95, a level not seen since 1986.

 

Long term ratio - courtesy http://profitimes.com

 

Platinum to gold ratio - courtesy stockcharts.com

Has the long term historical significance of the platinum to gold ratio lost its relevance?  If the world plunges into a deflationary depression, platinum may wind up becoming a much greater bargain at a later date.  The more likely scenario is that a new pricing metric is not being established and that the multi-decade low in the platinum to gold ratio is a major buy signal for platinum.

The central banks of the world have made it abundantly clear that they will print and inflate their way out of the debt crisis.  Ownership of a precious metal such as platinum is one method of maintaining a store of value against depreciating currencies.

Numismatic versions of the platinum coin can be purchased by investors directly from the U.S. Mint.  The 2011 Proof Platinum Eagle has been available since May 26, 2011 with a maximum mintage of 15,000 pieces.  The current price to purchase the 2011 American Eagle one ounce platinum proof coin from the U.S. Mint is $1,892.00 with no order limit.  No sales tax is charged on the purchase and a credit card can be used to pay for the coins.

According to coinupdate.com, the United State Mint may bring back the American Platinum Eagle bullion coins.  The U.S. Mint has not minted the bullion versions of the platinum coin since 2008.  Production of the American Platinum Eagle is not required by law, as is the case for the American gold and silver eagles.  Production of the platinum coins are at the discretion of the Secretary of the Treasury.  The 2008 and earlier bullion version of the one ounce American Platinum Eagle coins are available from coin dealers and are currently priced at around $1,860 each.