May 18, 2024

The State of the Gold Market

Until quite recently, the gold market has been experiencing a strong rise in prices. This has been due to factors such as concerns regarding weak currencies and unstable foreign governments. Gold has been viewed as a safe haven investment and has been attracting an increasing share of investment dollars. Despite the recent cool down, many market experts are predicting a continued rise in prices over the long term.

The Most Recent Market Reports

As of November 26, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) stated that its holdings remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 41,316,740 ounces. The IShares Silver Trust (SLV) stated that its holdings declined by 5,865,684 ounces to 344.374 million ounces. Market experts have suggested that the holding pattern, as well as the slightly lowered prices indicate a decrease in safe haven demand. Recent data on the economic situation in the US has at least temporarily arrested some of the more pressing fears about the economy, and the price of gold has typically risen and fallen inversely to the strength of the dollar.

Other Gold Related News

There are other potential considerations. For example: a major French gold supplier is launching a range of mini bars. There has been a growing interest in precious metal investments in the French market and this new approach is aimed to capture some of this market. In addition, Canadian company Infinito Gold Ltd has lost its gold concession after a Costa Rican court ruled that their mining was harmful to the local environment. Finally, the central bank in Vietnam is actively attempting to cool domestic gold market prices by granting additional quotas for domestic companies importing gold between now and year end.

2010 Proof Gold Eagle Selling Quickly

Sales of the recently released 2010 Proof American Gold Eagle already account for more than 74,000 ounces of gold. The collector offerings were first available for sale from the United States Mint on October 7, 2010.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins distributed through a network of authorized purchasers, the US Mint also typically offers collectible versions of the coins for direct sale. Numismatic products for the American Gold Eagle were canceled last year due to the demand for bullion coins. With the resumption of sales this year, collectors have returned in force.

Through November 21, the total sales for the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles measured in ounces, already exceed the final sales total for the 2008 offerings by more than 50%. The 2008 Proof Gold Eagles were available for a period of more than ten months.

2010 Proof Gold Eagle Sales through 11/21/10

Units Ounces
1 oz 25,000 25,000.00
1/2 oz 6,031 3,015.50
1/4 oz 5,194 1,298.50
1/10 oz 12,809 1,280.90
4 coin set 23,464 43,408.40
Total
74,003.30

2008 Proof Gold Eagle Sales Final

Units Ounces
1 oz 17,720 17,720.00
1/2 oz 10,085 5,042.50
1/4 oz 6,360 1,590.00
1/10 oz 15,599 1,559.90
4 coin set 12,517 23,156.45
Total
49,068.85

Maximum product limits for the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles have been established at 25,000 one ounce coins, 15,000 half ounce, 16,000 quarter ounce, 27,000 tenth ounce, and 39,000 of the 4 coin sets. So far the one ounce option has achieved the maximum.

If all options sell out, this would account for 111,350 ounces of gold.

The World’s Rarest Gold Collection—Sold!

The gold collection housed at the Carson Nugget in Carson City, Nevada was one of the two largest on display in the United States. It had been billed as the “world’s rarest gold collection,” and consisted of 170 specimens of gold in crystalline and nugget form with a combined weight of more than 300 ounces. The collection was originally put on display in the 1950’s, when the casino opened.

The bulk of the collection was assembled in the 1930’s by a California collector named John Ghririoso. It was purchased by Richard Graves for display at the Nevada casino and hotel called the Carson Nugget. When the casino was purchased by Howard and Hop Adams in 1957, the new owners continued to display and enhance the collection. Now, however, it will be going to a new home.

Selling the Nugget’s Collection

The collection, which has been valued at prices up to five million, was put on sale due to dwindling public interest. It simply has not been drawing the visitors that it once did. The current strength of the gold market made it an excellent time to reconsider the casino’s ownership, since the collection isn’t actually vital to its operations. The owners put the collection up for auction, setting the minimum bid at $1.1 million dollars.

An Impressive Purchase

The actual auction drew attention from more than 50 bidders. Their number was made up of public and private collectors, institutions, and dealers. It’s likely that the collection ended up with a collector, or perhaps and institution, but we don’t know for sure since the actual amount of the sale as well as the buyer’s identity is protected by a confidentiality agreement. Nor do we know at this time what the future of the celebrated collection might be. What we do know is that it is extremely valuable and unique, as these high quality specimens are no longer mined. Truly a once in a lifetime investment for one successful buyer.

2010 Third Quarter Gold Demand

Total identifiable gold demand for the third quarter showed an increase of 12% above year ago levels at 921.8 tonnes. Increases in demand from jewelry consumption, industrial sectors, and net retail investment more than offset a decline in demand from electronically traded funds, according to information published by the World Gold Council.

Compared to the 2010 second quarter, gold demand showed a decline of 10%. This was the result of the exceptionally high levels of investment demand experienced in the previous quarter.

During the third quarter, jewelery demand totaled 529.8 tonnes, representing an increase of 8% from the year ago period. Buyers in key markets such as Indian, China, Russia, and Hong Kong were not deterred by record high prices. The highest growth in demand was experienced in India, with an increase of 36%. With the recent focus of the media on gold investors, it’s interesting to note that more than half of identifiable gold demand comes from the jewelry sector.

Industrial demand for gold was 110.2 tonnes, marking an increase of 13% from the year ago period. Demand was led by electronics, which accounted for 77.9 tonnes and measured a gain of 18%. A decline in demand was experienced from the dentistry sector, with a drop of 7% to 12.2 tonnes.

Identifiable investment demand was up 19% from the year ago period at 281.8 tonnes. However, this did represent a decline of 16% from the previous quarter. The largest increase in demand for this category came from bar hoarding, which increased 44% to 132.4 tonnes. This is an interesting contrast to demand from ETFs which dropped 7% to 38.7 tonnes.

The average price of gold during the quarter was $1,226.75, ranging from a low of $1,157.00 to a high of $1,307.50 per ounce.

Identifiable Gold Demand (Source:GFMS)

Paper Money Collapses in Value as Gold and Silver Soar

Most people under the age of 50 have probably never seen government currency backed by a tangible asset such as silver.  The $1 dollar Silver Certificates, last produced in 1963, were backed by silver on deposit in the US Treasury and payable in silver to “the bearer on demand”.

The promise to redeem  Silver Certificate dollars for silver was withdrawn by the US Government and holders of such dollars had to be satisfied that the value of their dollar was now backed by the “full faith and credit” of the US Government.  Redemption of Silver Certificates for silver coin ended in 1964 and redemption of Silver Certificates for silver bullion was ended in 1968.

The era of currency backed by real money such as gold or silver ended and the dawn of a fiat currency system began.  The result for holders of currency backed by nothing more than promises has been disastrous as the value of paper dollars has seen its purchasing power virtually disappear.

As the quantity of dollars has grown exponentially, their value has correspondingly diminished, leading to a large increase in general price levels.

Chart pbs.org

Despite the obvious increase in prices and the collapse of the value of the dollar, the Federal Reserve tells us they now need to engage in money printing quantitative easing in order to create inflation to help the economy.  Fed Chairman Bernanke ensures us that the Fed is committed to keeping inflation low.

“Although asset purchases are relatively unfamiliar as a tool of monetary policy, some concerns about this approach are overstated. Critics have, for example, worried that it will lead to excessive increases in the money supply and ultimately to significant increases in inflation. Our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits. Nor did it result in higher inflation. We have made all necessary preparations, and we are confident that we have the tools to unwind these policies at the appropriate time. The Fed is committed to both parts of its dual mandate and will take all measures necessary to keep inflation low and stable.”

The Fed has not succeeded at keeping inflation low in the past and now seems obsessed with inflating asset values to prop up a weak economy.  It’s all about trust with fiat money, and the Fed Chairman seems to be losing credibility.

The price movements in gold and silver are strong indicators that no one is being fooled by the Fed Chairman’s words.  Investors are watching “what they do – not what they say”.   Expect gold and silver prices to be dramatically higher over time, with an initial objective of $5,000/oz for gold.

Which is Better to Own – Gold Bullion or Gold Stocks?

Gold investors have two basic choices – buying gold bullion or buying shares in companies that produce or own gold. As we examine the two basic investment vehicles available to gold investors, it becomes apparent that choosing the best investment option can be a complex decision. Some of the questions that a gold investor should consider include the following.

What has produced better investment results – owning gold bullion or a gold mutual fund?

To gain insight into investment returns, let’s compare how an investment in gold bullion compared to investing in the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX).  I selected TGLDX since it is one of the best performing, actively managed gold funds with a long term track record.  An investment of $10,000 in the Tocqueville Gold Fund in 2000 would now be worth approximately $86,000 for a stunning return of 860%.   A $10,000 investment in gold bullion in 2000 would currently be worth approximately $46,400 or a 467% return.

Since gold mining companies are leveraged to the price movement of gold, it is not entirely surprising that the gold stocks would outperform the metal. Leverage, however, works both ways and in 2008, when gold experienced a price correction, TGLDX dropped from 65 to 19, a horrendous decline of 71%, whereas gold bullion experienced a normal bull market correction of only approximately 25%.   For those investors unwilling to tolerate huge price fluctuations, bullion seems a better way to go. When gold is moving up, expect the gold funds to outperform the metal.  In 2010, TGLDX has increased 42.7% compared to an increase in gold of 27%.

TGLDX Chart : Yahoo Finance

Gold 2000-Present: Kitco

If I decide to invest in gold stocks instead of the bullion, how many different stocks should I buy?

One of the primary tenets of sound investing is to always diversify.   Although selected gold stocks have vastly outperformed the price movement in bullion, many have not and some have dramatically underperformed.   Evaluating the prospects of an individual gold mining company is difficult, even for the experts.  An investor choosing to allocate a large percent of assets into gold stocks is probably better off (from a risk standpoint) investing in a well managed gold fund with a solid long term track record.  For an investor that does not want to hold physical gold nor own individual gold stocks, investment in a gold ETF such as GLD, that tracks the price movement of the bullion, would be an option.

I don’t trust paper assets and want to hold only gold bullion – what are my options?

For a conservative, risk averse investor looking to protect the value of his money,  investing only in gold bullion is a sound strategy.  Holding actual bullion, however raises security questions on how and where to store the physical gold.  Investors who wish to have their gold stored on their behalf can chose from a variety of firms that securely store gold in protected and insured vaults.  For an investor storing gold on his own in a safe deposit box, it would perhaps be wise to diversify storage geographically by using more than one bank.

Is the tax treatment different for gold bullion versus gold stocks?

The IRS considers gold to be a collectible.  Gains on gold bullion or coins and ETF’s backed by physical gold and held for more than a year have a maximum tax rate of 28%, while positions sold in less than a year are taxed at ordinary income rates.   Gold stocks are considered capital assets by the IRS and standard capital gain tax rates apply to profits.

As nations compete with each other to devalue their currencies and the Federal Reserve engages in outright money printing, gold investors should be expecting substantial profits regardless of what investment vehicle is chosen.

US Mint Changes Rules for Authorized Purchasers

The United States Mint recently revised the requirements to become an Authorized Purchaser for their American Eagle Gold and Silver bullion programs. Since the start of the program, the US Mint has used an authorized purchaser network to distribute the coins to the public.

These Authorized Purchasers are the only ones allowed to buy bullion coins directly from the United States Mint. They purchase the bullion coins based on the market prices of the metals plus an established premium. The premiums are currently $2 for Silver Eagles and 3%, 5%, 7%, and 9% for one ounce, one-half ounce, one-quarter ounce, and one-tenth ounce Gold Eagles. Authorized purchasers are also required to create a two way market for the coins to ensure liquidity for US Mint bullion coin investors.

There are currently eight authorized purchasers for gold and twelve for silver.

Changes to the requirements recently made effective included modifications to the sections “Purpose”, “Marketing Support”, “Experienced Market Maker”, and “Tangible Net Worth”. The most significant change was the addition of a new section “Right to Temporarily Refrain from the Review of New Applications.”

The new section states the following (emphasis added):

The United States Mint reserves the right to temporarily refrain from the review of new AP applications during periods in which the allocation of any bullion product is required. The temporary refrain period will continue until a minimum of nine months after all allocations have been lifted, but no more than one year after all allocations have been lifted.

For more than two years the US Mint has continually resorted to their allocation program (rationing) in times when gold and silver bullion demand has spiked. From 2008 to 2010, Silver Eagles have spent more time under allocation than not, with the program implemented February 2008, lifted in June 2009, reinstated in December 2009, and lifted in September 2010.

Under the newly established rules, the US Mint can refrain from considering applications of potential new authorized purchasers until at least June 2011. During this time, if another demand spike necessitates the use of the allocation program, the clock starts again, but only after allocation has been lifted. Given the pattern of the past two years, the period of refrain could last indefinitely.

By law the US Mint is required to supply American Gold and Silver Eagles in quantities sufficient to meet public demand. In reality, the supply of coins is limited based on the number of planchets the US Mint can obtain from foreign suppliers, and distribution is limited based on the small number of authorized purchasers and the new hurdles placed before potential applicants.


2010 Gold Buffalo Bullion Coin Inventories Depleted

Even though its only September, US Mint sales of the 2010 American Gold Buffalo bullion coins are done for the year. Availability for the one ounce 24 karat gold bullion coin has become erratic in recent years, with the coins only available for a few months at a time, rather than throughout the year.

A memorandum sent to the US Mint’s authorized purchaser network included the following brief statement: The United States Mint has depleted its inventory of 2010 American Buffalo One Ounce Gold Bullion Coins. No additional inventory will be made available.

The 2010 Gold Buffalo bullion coins originally went on sale April 29, 2010. After just under five months of availability, the US Mint recorded sales of 209,000 coins.

The American Gold Buffalo series was introduced in 2006, in part to compete with the 24 karat gold offerings of other world mints. The US Mint’s popular American Gold Eagle is struck in a composition of 22 karat gold.

The 2006 Gold Buffalo was launched on June 22, 2006 and the coins were available throughout the remainder of the year. In 2007, the coins were available all year, although sales levels took a dip from the strong levels of the inaugural year. The following year, the more erratic availability would begin.

In September 2008, the US Mint announced their inventory of Gold Buffalo bullion coins depleted. The offering remained unavailable for more than a month. In November sales briefly resumed to sell one last batch of 25,000 coins. After that point, Gold Buffalo bullion coins were not available again for nearly a year.

The 2009 Gold Buffalo coins finally went on sale October 15, 2009 and only lasted until December 4, 2009 before inventories were depleted.

Will we ever see a return to normalcy when bullion coins are available throughout the year and not subject to depletion, suspensions, and rationing?

US Mint to Offer 2010 Proof Gold Eagles

The United States Mint has officially announced the availability of 2010 Proof American Gold Eagle coins.

Although these are collector coins, their fate has become intertwined with the demand for bullion coins. The end of Gold and Silver Eagle rationing and the recent decline in bullion sales, no doubt helped clear the way for the collectible offering. Proof Gold Eagles had been canceled for 2009.

The US Mint will offer the full range of 2010 Proof Gold Eagles, including 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, and 1/10 oz coins. These will be available for sale individually or as part of a four coin set. The following product limits have been established for each offering:

Product Product Limit
1 oz. Coin 25,000
1/2 oz. Coin 15,000
1/4 oz. Coin 16,000
1/10 oz. Coin 27,000
4 Coin Set 39,000

If the US Mint manages to completely sell out of all options, that would represent 111,350 ounces of gold. Through the end of August, the average number of ounces sold through the American Gold Eagle bullion program was around 108,000 per month.

There is still no word on whether the US Mint will have the time and precious metals blank supplies to produce and offer 2010 Proof Silver Eagles.

Gold and Silver Eagle Rationing Ends… For Now

The United States Mint’s “on again, off again” rationing of American Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins is “off again”.

For more than two years, increased levels of demand for gold and silver bullion coins have caused problems for the United States Mint. Under current law, they are required to produce Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities sufficient to meet public demand. When they have been unable to meet full demand, they have defaulted to meeting as much demand as possible.

In February 2008, following a multi-week suspension of Silver Eagles, the US Mint imposed their “allocation program” for the first time, which rationed the supply of bullion coins amongst authorized purchasers. At the time their memo stated, “The unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins necessitates our allocating these coins on a weekly basis until we are able to meet demand.”

Despite making some progress with the overall number of gold and silver bullion coins available, the US Mint has resorted to this allocation time and time again, in response to increased bullion demand. When demand subsides, the program is lifted, only to be reinstated weeks or months later when demand reemerges.

Last year rationing was ended for both gold and silver bullion coins in June 2009 with little fanfare. In the ensuing months, the US Mint presumably produced the bullion coins in quantities necessary to meet full demand. However, as had happened before, fresh waves of demand upset the delicate balance.

In late November 2009, sales of both Gold and Silver Eagles were briefly suspended and resumed under the familiar allocation program. Rationing eventually ended for Gold Eagle bullion coins in March 2010, and for Silver Eagle bullion coins early this month.

Will the latest “end of rationing” finally stick? Or will events once again transpire to reignite bullion demand and bring back the rationing program yet again?