May 19, 2024

Four Approaches To Gold Investment

In its quest to determine the best way to make money from investing in gold, the Wall Street Journal recently took an in depth look at four different gold investment strategies. Each was represented by a preeminent investor, one whose method has seen some success recently.

Here’s what they had to say:

1. The first investor was John Paulson, who made his money by anticipating the economic crisis and acting accordingly. His current method of gold investment is to buy shares of large mining and exploration companies. The idea at work here, according to Paulson, is that “if gold prices do well, the miners will do even better . . . the higher gold prices go, the more miners can profit from potential and existing projects.” The downside here is that mining for gold is an expensive proposition, so the miners must make enough money to cover that expense before turning a profit.

2. The next investor discussed was billionaire Thomas Kaplan. He is focusing his investment funds on junior miners rather than the big mining companies that Paulson is currently interested in. His argument? These smaller companies are “sitting on valuable assets . . . providing the greatest leverage to a bull market.” He believes that these junior miners have a greater potential to go along with their greater risk.

3. The third investor, John Burbank prefers a different route. He focuses his attention on gold bar investment. Since the bars are an actual physical investment, he believes that they are more likely to return his investment than shares and contracts. According to Burbank, “If investors become concerned that shares and futures contracts aren’t fully backed by physical gold, or if inflation surges, they may begin to demand delivery of the metal, sending the price of physical gold soaring.”

4. The final investor, David Einhorn is also interested in bars, but in addition, he chooses to invest in exchange trade funds that own gold miners. He has also purchased call options or gold futures, which require a relatively small investment to control a large gold position.

New Partnership at La Bandera

A press release was distributed last week indicating the Aurion Resources Ltd has signed a binding letter of intent with Gammon Gold Inc. This letter of intent will ultimately give Gammon the option to earn up to a 70% interest in Aurion’s 100% owned La Bandera gold project in Durango Mexico.

Aurion acquired La Bandera only a year ago and since then, they have been working through the early exploration phases. By their own admission, they have been working to attract a joint venture partner. Gammon’s proven track record with similar mine building operations in Mexico makes them an attractive option for Aurion.

La Bandera

The La Bandera site contains an epithermal gold vein system that is more than 20 km long, but it has never been truly explored. Only seven drill holes were ever completed by previous workers. Still, there is evidence of widespread gold in quartz veins, breccias, and stockworks occurring over the length of the system.

Aurion aims to remedy that and according to its press release, “has outlined a more than 2300 m long by 300 m wide Au-in-soil geochemical anomaly coincident with a clay alteration zone which hosts widely spaced quartz veinlets. Individual soil samples assayed up to 2.07 g/t Au and individual rock chip samples of the quartz veins assayed up to 73.7 g/t Au.”

The Details of a Letter of Intent

The agreement between the two companies states that “Gammon can a earn an initial 51% interest by making $5 million in exploration expenditures over 36 months, including a firm commitment to spend a minimum $1 million in the first 12 months. Gammon can earn an additional 19% by completing a minimum $7 million in additional expenditures or by completing a positive feasibility study within 5 years of earning 51% and forming a Joint Venture.

In addition, Gammon will make a $250,000 private placement in Aurion, purchasing share units priced at a 30% premium to the 30-day moving average of Aurion’s share price as of the date of signing a Definitive Agreement. Each unit comes with a 1/2 warrant priced at a 50% premium to the 30-day moving average of Aurion share price, as of the date of signing a Definitive Agreement.

Are You Getting Gold for the Holidays or Giving it?

We’ve mentioned the French company that has recently launched a line of gold mini bars in an attempt to increase revenue. Just in time for the year’s gift giving season, CPoR is making the argument that its ingots are an essentially recession proof gift—the ultimate stocking stuffer, in fact.

There are two different principles at work. The first is the fact that gold is a solid investment at the moment. The precious metal is experiencing an amazing market high and many signs point to its continuing growth.

Continued concerns about the economy and the effects of inflation have done much to encourage an investor interest in the metal as a save repository for their funds. This marketing idea is not simply about giving the gift of a solid investment, however. It’s also about the intrinsic allure of the metal itself.

Currently that allure is reflected in the fact that gold bar hoarding is on the rise. According to the World Gold Council it has increased 44% since 2009 and that was an increase of 42% over the numbers from 2008. The fact is people who buy gold can get a deep satisfaction out of having physical access to their purchase. If they take delivery of the precious metal and secure it themselves, then they retain access to it in all its many charms. Just holding or even looking at the bars can be a powerful experience.

The gift of a gold bar for the holidays offers the recipient a chance to have their own powerful moment with the metal. It’s a gift that combines and appeal to the senses, the height of luxury, and sound financial planning in one tidy package.

$11 Million Christmas Tree Includes Gold and Jewels

Christmas is a time for giving, certainly, but it is also a time to dress up in our best clothes and our best decorations in order to celebrate. Most of us deck the halls with a bit of tinsel and ribbon. Our trees are covered in sparkling ornaments, but for the most part they are made of painted glass and plastic. No so everywhere though. One hotel in Abu Dhabi is taking their holiday decorations very seriously.

A Golden Tree

At the Emirates Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi, where you can actually purchase your gold from the world’s first gold vending machine, Christmas is celebrated in style. This year that style includes a forty-three foot high faux fir tree studded with gold as well as bejeweled ornaments.

The hotel’s general manager states that the tree is decorated with one hundred and thirty one of these ornaments—each created with care by one of the hotel’s jewelers. Manager Hans Olbertz states that he and the jeweler worked together to produce what he calls a “unique tree and experience for [his] guests this year.”

A World Record

The tree is certainly unique. It’s current estimated worth is somewhere in the neighborhood of 11 million US dollars for the gold alone. The jewels on the ornaments include diamonds and sapphire. There has even been some discussion among hotel officials about contacting the Guinness World Record office regard in the record for most expensive tree.

According to Guinness, the current world’s most expensive Christmas tree is a 10.8 million dollar tree from Tokyo in 2002. That tree was adorned with approximately 83 pieces of jewelry from Piaget Japan. The gold alone on the Abu Dhabi tree makes it a more than likely contender as well as a stylish example to potential guests and investors.

image via Flickr user Lars Plougmann

Chicago’s Field Museum Sponsors a Gold Exhibit

There’s a new exhibit in town at The Field Museum. This exhibit, arranged by the American Museum of Natural History, New York and the Huston Museum of Natural Science, Chicago, focuses on the sheer allure of this very precious metal. It is also the last stop on the exhibition’s tour.

“Gold” looks at the metal’s history as a symbol of power, mystery, and wealth while placing it in a wider historical context, according to the museum. It’s a fascinating journey.

From Prehistory to the Gold Rush

As the first metal worked by mankind, gold is inextricably tied to the rise and fall of prehistoric societies. Its ownership could make or break a community and it has been a part of human mythology almost as long as it has been a part of human society.

This is especially true in our society and the exhibit takes a close look at “how the fever for gold really spurred the development of our country.” To that end, the exhibit displays the largest gold bar ever found in the California Gold Rush. It’s the 100 pound Eureka bar. There are also gold bars that were used to finance wars and pay debts.

From Bars to Jewelry to Investments

The collection includes gold bars of many different shapes as well as exotic and beautiful items from around the world. Among the most notable are “a pendant from Ghana in the shape of a mask, a gilded Buddha from Tibet, a rare Peruvian vase, a Japanese sword sheath and beautiful Persian earrings.”

The collection as whole is designed to lead visitors from the geological process that creates this precious metal through its long history shaping and influencing, and in turn being influenced by human society. It’s a relationship that carries on into the current socioeconomic situation, as gold has reached some of its highest prices in the last year alone. No one knows what the future may hold for our relationship with this bewitching metal.

Signs of Chinese Demand for Gold

China is the world’s second largest consumer of gold, so their interest in the metal is understandable. It is also the world’s largest producer of the metal. Still, the country is exhibiting a newly invigorated consumer and investor interest in the metal that is bound to capture some attention.

The Gold Reserves

Notoriously secretive, China rarely either publishes gold trade figures or comments on its reserves. It came as a shock, therefore, to find out from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange that state reserves of gold have increased to a jaw dropping 1,054 tonnes. The last time that reserve figures were made public was in 2003 when they equaled 600 tonnes. But that only one sign of the current Chinese interest in gold.

Consumer and Investment Interest

Chinese officials have indicated their interest and support for increasing the country’s gold reserves even further. Gold imports in the country have reached 209 tonnes, an impressive amount considering the high for 2009 was only 45 tonnes.

Experts speculate that though there has been no formal announcement, the government is approving these imports in an effort to encourage private gold investment in the country. Either way, investors and consumers are turning to the precious metals to provide themselves with an alternative to the threat of inflation.

The Future is Golden

Representatives for the World Gold Council have speculated that the investment demand for the metal could reach to 150 tonnes. The retail and jewelry demand for the metal, traditionally the driving force behind the metal’s prices, may even double in the next ten years.

The metal’s rise has been meteoric, but there’s no reason to believe that this level of interest will not continue. Predictions state that China will lead a worldwide demand for gold in the next year.

Australia’s Largest Gold Company Seeks to Expand West African Output

According to their recent statements, Newcrest Mining Ltd. is working to double gold production at their Bonikro mine on the Ivory Coast.

Newcrest is an Australian based company, whose operations extend to Papua New Guinea and Indonesia. Following a merger with Lihir Gold completed in August 2010, they became the world’s fifth largest gold producer, in addition to being the largest producer within Australia.

It was through the company’s takeover of Lihir Gold that they acquired their West African mine Bonriko. The mine produced 150,023 ounces of gold in 2009, but it will have to do better than that in the future to justify the company’s interests on the African continent.

Bonriko’s Promise

Geoff Day, chief operating officer-offshore for the Melbourne-based company, told reporters that West Africa has a history of high level gold production. He believes that that history supports the company’s plans for the mine.

“Ideally, and this is not written in stone, if we’re going to have a presence in Africa, we’d be looking for something bigger. You’d have to think it would be in the order of 300,000-500,000 ounces. That would be something where you can say you can support a country presence.”

Newcrest’s Plan

Newcrest Mining forecasts that their gold production will continue to increase. By 2014, they target a gold output of 3.75 million ounces, achieved through an annual increase of 8.2% from existing mines and projects.

Today their share price closed at A$40.24, down .44 for the day. Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM:AU) has ranged from a 52 week low of A$29.73 to a 52-week high of A$43.71.

How Much Gold and Silver Will the Treasury Secretary Determine is Sufficient to Meet Public Demand?

A bill, which seeks to provide greater Congressional oversight for circulating coin compositions, may have implications for the quantity of United States Mint gold and silver bullion coins that are available to precious metals investors.

The bill H.R. 6162 Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 primarily establishes rules for the Secretary of the Treasury to provide biennial reports to specified committees on the costs related to circulating coins, and make recommendations for new metallic materials or procedures. A final section of the bill deals with “meeting the demand for gold and silver numismatic items”, although the implications seem to extend to bullion coins.

Following the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Silver Eagles, the United States Mint sought greater flexibility to produce numismatic versions of the coin. The Director of the United States Mint requested such authority be granted to the Secretary of the Treasury at a hearing of the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology on July 20, 2010. The chairman of the subcommittee Melvin Watt was the one who introduced the bill H.R. 6162.

The following is Sec. 4 of the bill:

Subsections (e) and (i) of section 5112 of title 31, United States Code are each amended by striking ‘quantities’ and inserting ‘qualities and quantities that the Secretary determines are’.

Here’s how the law authorizing American Silver Eagles currently reads (emphasis added):

(e) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Secretary shall mint and issue, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand, coins which— (1) are 40.6 millimeters in diameter and weigh 31.103 grams; (2) contain .999 fine silver; (3) have a design— (A) symbolic of Liberty on the obverse side; and (B) of an eagle on the reverse side…

And here’s now the law would read if the bill H.R. 6162 is enacted (emphasis added):

(e) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Secretary shall mint and issue, in quantities and qualities that the Secretary determines are sufficient to meet public demand, coins which— (1) are 40.6 millimeters in diameter and weigh 31.103 grams; (2) contain .999 fine silver; (3) have a design— (A) symbolic of Liberty on the obverse side; and (B) of an eagle on the reverse side…

A similar change occurs for subsection (i), which deals with American Gold Eagles.

The inclusion of the word “qualities” was necessary to accomplish the presumed goal of the legislation to allow the issuance of numismatic versions of the coins, but what about the added phrase “that the Secretary determines are sufficient”?

Is the amount of gold and silver bullion coins that the Secretary determines are sufficient to meet public demand different that than amount which will actually meet public demand?

Even under the strict existing standard, there have been extended periods of time when full public demand was clearly not being met. The sale of Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins have been completely suspended for brief periods, and rationed for considerably longer periods. Most recently, Gold Eagles were subject to rationing from December 2009 until March 2010, and Silver Eagles were rationed from December 2009 until September 2010.

What will happen if the standard becomes less strict and more indefinite?

US Mint Bullion Programs at the Treasury Secretary’s Discretion

Besides the American Gold and Silver Eagles, no other US Mint bullion programs carry the requirement to be produced in quantities sufficient to meet public demand. The language varies, but each program is effectively left to the discretion of the Secretary of the Treasury.

The 24 karat American Gold Buffalo coins, carry the requirements, “Not later than 6 months after the date of enactment of the Presidential $1 Coin Act of 2005, the Secretary shall commence striking and issuing for sale such number of $50 gold bullion and proof coins as the Secretary may determine to be appropriate, in such quantities, as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe.”

The subsection dealing with American Platinum Eagles reads: “The Secretary may mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe from time to time.”

And, the recently issued 5 ounce America the Beautiful Silver bullion coins: “The Secretary shall strike and make available for sale such number of bullion coins as the Secretary determines to be appropriate that are exact duplicates of the quarter dollars issued under subsection (t)”

Granted that there is no public demand requirement, but how is the Treasury Secretary doing with these other gold and silver bullion programs?

Inventories of the American Gold Buffalo bullion coins were completely depleted by the end of September 2010. At that point, the US Mint indicated that no further inventory of 2010-dated bullion coins would be made available.

The American Platinum Eagle has not been available in bullion format for more than two years. After final inventories were exhausted in late 2008, the US Mint indicated that the 2009 release would be delayed. The 2009-dated bullion coins were eventually canceled. The US Mint has not provided any information on 2010-dated bullion coins, and none have been issued to date.

The America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins went on sale to authorized purchasers today. The supply was so limited that the US Mint urged primary distributors to keep prices reasonable. Market forces took precedence and the bullion coins have been selling for double the silver value, or more.

Conclusion

So what is the difference between “quantities sufficient to meet public demand” and “quantities that the Secretary determines are sufficient to meet public demand”?

In practice, we shall see if this represents a different standard, but at this point the change in wording makes me uncomfortable.  I want the supply of gold and silver bullion coins to be determined by demand in the marketplace, not determined by unspecified criteria established by the Secretary of the Treasury.

As the bill has already been passed in the House and Senate, and only requires the President’s signature to become law, it seems too late to do anything other than brace for the possible repercussions.

Buying Your Gold at the ATM

In May of this year, the very first gold vending machine in the world was installed and used. That’s right, a vending machine where a customer can purchase gold bars was put into place. It’s located in Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Palace hotel—a luxurious place that is frequented by billionaires and even royalty—and apparently, it’s been a success. Gold to Go, the company that owns and operates the machine has recently announced that it has plans to consider a US installation.

Gold to Go

According to the company’s statements, “Gold to Go is a trading and sales concept which facilitates selling gold bars and coins independently from shop-based display and sales locations.”

Their vending machine in Abu Dhabi, sometimes referred to as a gold ATM, is actually covered in 24-carat gold. The machine works by dispensing gold in discrete black packaging. You can choose to purchase your gold in a number of different forms and weight. A small one-ounce bar is being offered as well as six different coins and 1, 5, and 10 gram bar options. Each is engraved to reflect the unique nature of the gold’s origin. The bars are stamped with the Emirates Palace logo while the coins bear the symbols of gold producing locales like Canada, Australia, and South Africa.

Where is it Headed?

Gold to Go intends their product to target two different audiences. The first is the potential investor. Buying gold this way demystifies the precious metal, they claim. The vending machine can facilitate a private investment for those who would like to take advantage of the metal’s recent market popularity. It also makes a good souvenir for those travelers who can afford it.

The gold vending machines may be available to the public in the United States as early as next year. Currently, it is slated to have locations in both Las Vegas and Florida.

The Rise in Gold Recycling

The industry that centers around recycling gold products like fillings or family jewelry is nothing new in countries like India, where the precious metal is an enduring part of the culture. There, everyone knows where they can buy and sell recycled gold in order to make a little money. In the US, however, things are different.

Until recently few people even considered attempting to sell gold products for recycling purposes. Even if they did, there were few local options for their use. Now, however, the practice of selling your gold to dealers interested in recycling it is on the rise.

Rising Interest

According to recent figures, the supply of secondary market gold coming from the US has risen steadily over the past four years. The reasons?

First of all, the US economy has put many people in the position of needing to access some kind of funding quickly. Commercials for gold recycling services promise to purchase unused gold items for good prices with little hassle and there are all sorts of options available, from pawnshops, to storefronts, to mail-in services. Buyers are making it a simple and convenient way to increase consumers’ ready money supplies.

Secondly, the extremely high demand for gold has resulted in higher prices, making it a great time for consumers to cash in on any gold that they are holding. Many of them do.

Impact on Supply

The increasing amount of recycled gold has helped to bolster overall gold supply. According to figures from the World Gold Council, while mine supply grew by only 3% during the third quarter of 2010, the supply of recycled gold increased by 41%. This served to boost overall gold supply by 18% compared to the year ago period.