March 29, 2024

U.S. Mint Silver Bullion Coin Sales Hit Record High

proof-silver-eagleAs discussed in a previous post, sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins were on track to post record sales volume in 2013.  It’s now official – sales of U.S. Mint silver bullion coins surged past the old record set in 2011 and are track to hit a record high of 45 million ounces in 2013.

According to the U.S. Mint year to date sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins total 40,175,000.  The previous record was set in 2011 when sales of the silver bullion coins came in at 39,868,500.  Based on monthly sales volume, the U.S. Mint might sell an additional 5 million coins by year end.

The American public loves the American Eagle silver bullion coins and can’t seem to get enough of them.  After an exuberant rise to almost $50 per ounce during 2011 silver has corrected in price to the low $20’s.  Although the decline in silver has elicited numerous bearish commentary in the mainstream press, long term investors seem to be doubling down as the price of silver price has become irresistibly cheap.  Yearly sales of the silver bullion coins have increased by almost 500% since 2008.

Total yearly sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins are shown in the chart below with the 2013 total as of November 12, 2013.

2013-W Proof Silver Eagle

proof-silver-eagle

In addition to the silver bullion coins the U.S. Mint produces a proof silver eagle coin.  According to the Mint News Blog the 2013-W Proof silver Eagle has already sold out and 2013 is the third year in a row that this popular product has sold out well before year end.

Sales for the 2013 Proof Silver Eagle originally began at the US Mint on January 24, 3013. Opening orders were slower compared to the prior two years, however the pace of orders remained brisk throughout the year. The coin typically represented one of the US Mint’s top sellers on the weekly sales reports.

Recently, weekly sales had spiked, with 29,613 units orders in the previous reporting period and an indication of 29,025 units ordered in the week just ahead of the sell out. Sales data shows total orders at 880,030 units. This is a bit higher than recent prior years.

In 2011, the individual proof Silver Eagle had sold out on November 22 after reaching sales of 850,000. In 2012, the sell out had occurred on November 13 when sales had reached 819,217.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

1881-CC-Morgan-Dollar

The U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins remain a popular method of building wealth with periodic purchases.  The American public can’t seem to get enough of the bullion coins and the desperate actions of global central banks to keep the financial system afloat with a deluge of paper money can only cause more financial anxiety and more silver purchases going forward.

American Silver Eagle Coin Sales On Verge of Record Shattering Year

american-silver-eagleThe American public’s love affair with the U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion coin continues unabated.   Ever since the financial meltdown of 2008 there has been an explosion in demand for the silver coins.  Average yearly sales of the silver bullion coins have increased by almost 500% since 2008 and sales for 2013 are on the verge of shattering all previous yearly sales records.

According to the U.S. Mint, sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins totaled 3,087,000 ounces for October up slightly from September monthly sales.   Demand for the silver coins has remained robust throughout the year and total annual sales at the end of October reached 39,175,000 million ounces.

The all time yearly sales record for American silver bullion coins was 2011 when sales hit 39,868,500 ounces.  Based on current monthly sales the total number of silver coins sold in 2013 should be in the neighborhood of 45,000,000 ounces or almost 13% higher than the record hit in 2011.

Total yearly sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins are shown in the chart below with the 2013 total through the end of October.

The market value of all silver bullion coins purchased since 2000 is $5.9 billion.  We know that silver prices will fluctuate over the years.  We also know that the “all mighty government” cannot produce silver coins by the trillions like they do with the U.S. dollar.  Based on the irresponsible financial conduct of both the Federal Reserve and the Federal government, is it any wonder that citizens are voting with their pocketbooks and moving into real stores of value such as silver?

SILVER DOLLARSThe American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

The U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins remain a popular method of building wealth with periodic purchases.  The American public can’t seem to get enough of the bullion coins and the desperate actions of global central banks to keep the financial system afloat with a deluge of paper money can only cause more financial anxiety and more silver purchases going forward.

Gold and Silver Are the Answer to Endless Fed Printing

gold-buffaloBy: GE Christenson

THE SETUP

A century ago bankers created the plan for a U.S. central bank, bought enough votes to get it passed into law, encouraged deficit spending, government debt, and extracting the interest payments from taxpayers. The process has worked well for the bankers.

After several expensive wars and the expansion of social programs the U.S. had created considerable debt. In fact, debt and the money supply had increased so much that inflation became a serious problem in the 1960s. Further, the U.S. trading partners no longer wanted dollars but wanted gold instead since they could see that dollars were being created indiscriminately and were losing their value. Nixon (August 15, 1971) did what was good for the financial industry, severed the remaining connection between the dollar and gold, allowed the money supply and debt to increase to never-seen-before levels, and planted the seeds of self-destruction for the dollar and the US economy.

THE CRASH

The process continued until 2008 when the debt and derivatives bubbles had grown so massive that the economy could no longer sustain them. The economy and stock market crashed and financial and political leaders stared “into the abyss” of deflationary collapse, reduced Wall Street income and bonuses, loss of votes, and did what they perceived as necessary: printing money, Quantitative Easing (QE), injecting liquidity, bond monetization, extend and pretend, and so on.

Courtesy: coinupdate.com

Courtesy: coinupdate.com

THE “SOLUTION”

The choice was made to “solve” an excessive debt problem by creating more debt – Quantitative Easing (QE) and increased deficit spending. Deficits were increased to a $Trillion or so per year while the government bailed out the bankers and politicians and the public watched Reality TV. It appeared to work, somewhat, for a while.

So the economy (financial industry) and government are desperate for QE, and similar to being hooked on “meth,” they find it difficult to kick the habit and get off the “drugs” of QE, money printing, and central banking. As Gold Stock Bull says,

The economy is addicted to QE and reliant on central bank stimulus to stay afloat. The world now understands that the FED cannot end the bond-buying program and has no intention of doing so anytime soon. If anything, we are likely to see increased quantitative easing in the future, just as a drug addict must up their dosage in order to have the same impact. This monetization of debt increases the bullish outlook on gold, as the gold price has historically trended higher along with the FED balance sheet.

Marc Faber and Deepcaster:

“The question is not tapering. The question is at what point will they increase the asset purchases to say $150 [billion], $200 [billion], a trillion dollars a month…”

“The Fed has boxed itself into a position where there is no exit strategy (and created) a colossal asset bubble…”

Continue QE and you get hyperinflation…”

“Halt, or even taper, QE and the markets crash.”

The picture, sans Fed propaganda, is increasingly clear. QE is necessary to supplement the financial industry and the voracious appetite of the U.S. government for more spending. Merely slowing QE will probably cause markets to crash, interest rates to rise, the government’s expense for interest on past debt will increase while tax revenues decline, and consequently the government needs more, not less, QE.

US debt to gdp

Of course there is always a way out – the “nuclear” option – let it crash and burn! But no one wants a crash as everyone will be hurt by that choice. Consequently the Fed and the U.S. government (the powers that be – TPTB) scramble desperately. What are the options?

  • More QE buys time. Less QE might well cause a crash. So TPTB choose more QE.
  • More spending keeps the big corporations (who make LARGE donations to congress) happy. If the government spends less, “everyone” complains. So TPTB choose more spending, more deficits, and more QE.
  • Higher interest rates mean that the interest expense for the U.S. government increases. More interest expense means larger deficits and so TPTB are forced to choose more QE.
  • Foreign purchases (China, Japan, Russia, etc.) of newly issued U.S. treasury debt are decreasing while some countries are actually reducing their current holdings of treasury debt. This forces the Fed to be the “buyer of last resort” and purchase, via more QE, the debt that normally would have been purchased by China, Japan, Russia and others. Fewer foreign purchases necessitate more QE.
  • A weaker economy and fewer people employed means less economic activity, diminished tax receipts and larger deficits. Those larger deficits guarantee more borrowing and more QE.
  • Obamacare will create more government expenses and less disposable income for average Americans, which means less consumer spending and therefore less tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments. There is no choice here – it is already law and we are going DOWN that road to much higher consumer costs, lower government revenue, and more government control. The result will be a government desperate for more revenue and more QE.

It does indeed look like a “QE trap.” So ask yourself:

  • More QE will weaken the dollar, on average, because more supply indicates less value for each dollar. What will that do to consumer prices for food and energy when the inevitable inflation works its way into the consumer economy?
  • What will happen to the prices for gold and silver when the realization finally hits the populace that interest rates are rising, QE is here forever, congress will never balance the budget, and the dollar will continue to weaken. (Hint: There is no fever like gold fever.)
  • It is clear that other countries increasingly dislike the U.S. dollar, U.S. treasury debt, and the current policies of the U.S. administration. How much will the prices for imported oil, gold, and silver increase as a consequence of the above?
  • What will a dollar collapse do to the prices of gold and silver?
  • Knowing the policies of the Fed, the congress, the administration, and the inevitability of QE, do you own enough gold, silver, platinum, land, diamonds, collectible art and other non-paper assets such that you can sleep well at night?

CONCLUSIONS

The U.S. government has spent itself into the “no-win” position whereby more QE is both necessary and dangerous. Most current policies, such as congressional gridlock, inability to pass a budget for five years, Obamacare, weakening economy and tax receipts, declining relations with foreign nations, massive deficits, declining total employment, inability to reduce spending, ongoing wars, probability of future wars, and more, suggest that QE must continue and probably increase.

Stocks may protect you  but gold and silver are the safer choice given the inevitability of more QE and a potential dollar collapse.

You decide!

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor (see full article here)

Selling Climax in Gold and Silver Stocks Is a Classic Buy Signal

chartThe bear case for gold and silver stocks is well known and investors have reacted by dumping mining stocks indiscriminately.  The staggering decline in gold and silver stocks over the past two years now exceeds the decline that occurred during the crash of 2008 when the financial system was at the brink of collapse.

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is an index comprised of sixteen major precious metal mining companies. During the crash of 2008 the XAU declined by 58.5%.  From the peak of 226.58 in December 2010 to the low of 90.15 in June 2013, the XAU has collapsed by 60.2%.

Courtesy Yahoo Finance

Courtesy Yahoo Finance

Has the sell off of the past two years been so extreme as to constitute a selling climax which usually signals a major reversal from the lows?  According to John J. Murphy, an acknowledged technical analyst, a selling climax is “usually a dramatic turnaround at the bottom of a down move where all the discouraged longs have finally been forced out of the market on heavy volume.  The subsequent absence of selling pressure creates a vacuum over the market, which prices quickly rally to fill.”

It is too early to tell if prices have reached a capitulation bottom but investors who haven’t sold out positions in the precious metal miners after a 60% decline are probably thinking more about buying than selling.  Another factor that impedes future selling is the fact that investors are now getting paid to wait for a turnaround in the mining industry.

Historically, precious metal miners have never paid out large dividends but this metric has changed.  The stock price declines in  senior gold and silver producers have been so severe that the dividend yields on some gold mutual funds now approaches 4%.

The $2.4  billion Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund (VGPMX) currently yields 3.76% and holds a well diversified portfolio of seasoned mining companies.  The Vanguard fund holds investments in both domestic and foreign companies involved in activities related to gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, and rare minerals.

The chart on VGPMX looks like a reason for precious metal investors to commit suicide but if a selling climax has occurred, the losses of the past two years may be quickly recouped.  In addition, the chart of the Vanguard fund has made a triple bottom over the past six months.

VGPMX

Courtesy: Yahoo Finance

Another classic sign of a bottom in precious metal stocks was discussed by Mebane Faber who has drawn an analogy to the bottom of stock prices in early 2009 to the current chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX).  In 2009 the S&P 500 kept hitting new lows even as the RSI and the MACD were making higher lows which is a classic bull signal.  A similar situation exists today with the GDX.

Courtesy: mebanefaber.com

Courtesy: mebanefaber.com

 

 

Global Debt Bubble Will Push Gold and Silver Prices Higher

money printingBy: GE Christenson

To paraphrase William Shakespeare, “the debt ceiling drama is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and political fury, signifying nothing.” We now have a reprieve for three months – the 11th hour deal, complete with payoffs and the usual corruption, will keep the world safe for more ineptitude, deficit spending, administrative hypocrisy and the guarantee of a sequel. All is well! Celebration! Champagne! Cut to a prime-time commercial promoting big government and Obamacare…

And back in the real world where people work and support their families, life goes on, few noticed the lack of government “services,” and in three months we will be blessed with another episode of our “Congressional Reality Show.”

Gold, Silver, and National Debt

Examine the following graph. It is a graph of smoothed* annual gold and silver prices and the official U.S. national debt since 1971 when the dollar lost all gold backing and was “temporarily” allowed to float against all other unbacked debt based currencies. All values start at 1.0 in 1971.

The legend does not show which line represents gold, silver, or the national debt. Why? Because it hardly matters! Government spends too much money to perform a few essential services and to buy votes, wars, and welfare, and thereby increases its debt almost every year, while gold and silver prices, on average, match the increases in accumulated national debt.

Our 435 representatives, 100 senators, and the administration listened to their corporate backers and chose to increase the debt ceiling, continue spending as usual, not “rock the boat,” and carry on with the serious business of politics and payoffs for another three months. It is safe to say that, on average, gold and silver will continue rising, along with the national debt, as they all have for the past 42 years. Further, like the national debt, both gold and silver (and probably most consumer prices) will increase substantially from here, until some traumatic “reset” occurs. What sort of reset?

  • A “black swan” event that is unpredictable, by definition.
  • Middle East war escalation.
  • Derivative melt-down.
  • A dollar collapse when foreigners say “enough” to the dollar debasement policies pursued by the Fed and the US government.
  • A collapse of the Euro or Yen for any number of reasons.
  • A banker admits that most of the official gold supposedly held in New York, London, and Fort Knox is gone and has been sold to China, India, and Russia.
  • You name the false flag operation.

My guess: Gold and silver prices will rise gradually for a while, and then quite rapidly after one of the above “financial icebergs” smashes into our “Titanic” world monetary system. Further, we will have difficulty locating physical gold available for sale after such an event occurs, even at much higher prices. Now would be a good time to purchase physical gold and silver for storage in a secure storage facility. Paper gold will not be safe…

Congress has acted. The President has spoken. The Federal Reserve will continue “printing” dollars to increase banker profitability, fund the government, and fight the forces of deflation. This is business as usual – as it has been for the past 42 years.

Here is the second version of the graph with gold, silver, and national debt labeled. Note how relatively undervalued silver is at the present time! Dashed lines indicate guesses for the future normalized values for gold, silver, and the national debt.

The debt ceiling drama and “Congressional Reality Show” will return to prime time in January and February, right after “Dancing with the Senators” and just before “House Wives of Salt Lake City.” Expect sound and fury signifying nothing.

Further commentary on the case for gold and silver:

The Reality of Gold and the Nightmare of Paper Silver: The Noise is Deafening
GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

* Gold and silver prices were smoothed by taking monthly closing prices and a 24 month simple moving average. Annual prices graphed are the average of the 12 average monthly prices per year.

The Term “Easy Janet” Is About to Become Part of the American Lexicon

By: Axel Merk

courtesy: www.michaelianblack.net

courtesy: www.michaelianblack.netBy: Axel Merk

While Democrats and Republicans fight with water pistols, the President may be readying a bazooka by nominating Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chair. You may want to hold on to your wallet; let me explain.

Our reference to water pistols refers to our assessment that bickering over discretionary spending is distracting from the real issue, entitlement reform. For details as to what we believe will happen if we don’t get entitlement reform done, please read our recent Merk Insight “The Most Predictable Economic Crisis”.

Bernanke Fed

Central banks in developed countries are generally considered independent, even if their members are appointed by politicians. In the U.S., however, there’s an added element: aside from a mandate for price stability, the Federal Reserve is tasked with promoting maximum sustainable employment. This simple concept might have been put in place with the best of intentions – who wouldn’t want to have maximum employment? Central banks that have a single focus on price stability, such as the European Central Bank, point out that the best way to foster sustainable growth is by keeping inflation low. The U.S., even with an employment mandate, had pursued the same practice.

That is, until Ben Bernanke appeared to run out of options to lower borrowing costs. Bernanke’s frame of reference had been the Great Depression; he had frequently cautioned that the biggest mistake during the Great Depression was to raise interest rates too early. After a credit bust, as central banks push against deflationary market forces, premature tightening might undo the progress to reflate the economy. In today’s world, it’s not just short term, but also longer-term interest rates that Bernanke has been concerned about – partially because Bernanke has always considered it important to keep mortgage rates low. To achieve his goal, the Bernanke Fed:

  • Talked down interest rates;
  • Lowered interest rates;
  • Purchased Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities
  • Engaged in Operation Twist
  • Introduced an employment target

Introducing an employment target was nothing but an extension of existing policies, as it signals the Fed might keep rates low independent of where inflation might be.

Yellen Fed

With Janet Yellen coming in, the concept of promoting employment is raised to a new level. Long gone is the Great Depression, but what remains may be a conviction that monetary policy should make up for the shortfalls of fiscal policy. That’s problematic for a couple of reasons:

  • When the Fed meddles with fiscal policy, Congress will want to meddle with monetary policy. For example, when the Fed buys mortgage-backed securities it allocates money to a specific sector of the economy (favoring the housing market); that’s not what the Fed ought to do – it’s the role of Congress to channel money through tax and regulatory policy. One can disagree whether even Congress should be picking winners and losers in an economy, but that’s a political determination to be made by elected officials.
  • When the Fed keeps rates low to promote employment, there’s a fair risk that important cues are removed from the market that would encourage Congress to show fiscal restraint. Congress has always loved to have a printing press in the back yard, but an employment target suggests that this printing press is going to be moved into the kitchen. The Eurozone may be proof that policy makers only make the tough decisions when forced to do so by the bond market; if, however, the Fed works hard to prevent this “dialogue” between the bond market and politicians, the most effective incentive to show fiscal restraint might be gone.
  • Inflation is a clear risk when the Fed emphasizes employment. In our assessment, inflation may well be the goal rather than the risk in the eyes of some policy makers, as inflation lowers the value of outstanding government debt.

Hold on to your wallet

In a democracy, it’s all too tempting to introduce ever more entitlements. As obligations mount, however, servicing these obligations might become ever more challenging. It’s nothing new that governments tax their citizens. But when deficits are no longer sustainable, governments may be tempted to engage in trickery. Structural reform, that is taking away entitlements, to lower expenditures would be the most prudent path to regain fiscal sustainability. Raising taxes is all too often the preferred alternative; while politically difficult, raising taxes is a strategy that’s all too often politically viable. Yet the path of least resistance may well be to inflate the debt away. Central banks ought to be independent to take this option away from policy makers. We have seen in the Eurozone that it can be most painful when the printing press is not at the disposal of politicians.

In our assessment, a central bank pursing an employment target is a central bank that has given up its independence. It’s only ironic that outgoing Fed Chair Bernanke recently praised Mexico’s central bank for gaining “independence.”

Whatever happened to the government being the representative of the people? Interests of the government and its citizens are no longer aligned when a government has too much debt. The government’s incentive will be to debase the value of the debt. The U.S. may have an easier time debasing the value of its debt than some other countries, as much U.S. debt is held by foreigners who can’t vote in the U.S. Differently said, promoting a weaker dollar is another potential avenue for U.S. policy makers to kick the can down the road. But fear not, whatever policy is coming to a neighborhood near you shall be done in the name of fostering maximum employment.

Axel Merk
Axel Merk is President and Chief Investment Officer, Merk Investments, Manager of the Merk Funds.

More on this topic:

After getting rid of their crazed central bankers, Zimbabwe Achieves Economic Growth by Destroying Ability of Government to Print Money.

obama_zimbabwe

So the good news is that once the economic collapse kicks in and the dollar becomes worthless preventing Hillary Chelsea Clinton Obama III, our 79th President from just printing more money, we too can have an actual economic recovery. Just like Zimbabwe.

“Having a multi-currency economy with no Zimbabwe dollars is primarily good news for Zimbabwe because government can’t print its way out of a deficit,” said John Robertson, an independent economist, in an interview from Harare. “They can’t just print more if they need it, as was happening in 2008.”

So there’s hope for America yet. Our current dictator could learn some lessons from the plight of Zimbabwe, but I suppose destroying the economy is a better means of wealth redistribution, than actually repairing the economy. Until then we’ll go on printing imaginary money.

US Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Decline in September

silver, goldDemand for American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins remained sluggish in September according to the latest figures from the U.S. Mint.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin totaled 13,000 ounces in September, off a considerable 77% from the previous year but up 13% from last month.  Sales of the gold bullion coin in August were only 11,500 ounces, the lowest monthly sales of the year.

The slowdown in gold coin sales marks a turnaround from the beginning of the year when demand for physical gold seemed insatiable.  April sales of the American Eagle gold coins came in at 209,500 ounces which was the largest sales month since December 2009 when 231,500 ounces were sold.

Despite the frenzy of money printing by banks around the world, gold bullion coin sales have declined every year since 2009 as the financial system stabilized.  Gold sales soared during the financial panic in 2009 to an all time high as nervous buyers sought safe haven in gold.

Yearly sales of the gold bullion coins are shown below.  The 2013 total is through September 3o.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins declined for the second month in a row.  During September the U.S. Mint sold 3,013,000 silver coins, down 7.4% from last year and down 16.9% from August.

Despite the soft sales in September, demand for the silver bullion coins has been robust this year.  If sales continue at the 3 million coins per month rate through year end, 2013 will turn out to be a record sales year with annual estimated silver bullion coin sales of 45 million.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins by year are shown below.  The 2013 sales total is through September 30.

 

No Silver Manipulation Says CFTC After Five Years and 7,000 Hours of Work

proof-silver-eagleThe case has been conclusively settled.  All those paranoid people who have been claiming manipulation of the silver market are wrong according to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

After a five year investigation and 7,000 hours of investigativing silver trading the CFTC says there is no “viable case” for charging anyone with manipulating the silver market.  To prosecute a case the CFTC must prove the intention to manipulate prices along with proof of the actual trades involved in the manipulation.

Casting doubt on the CFTC’s decision was none other than CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton who implied that even if there was manipulation, the standards for proving manipulation are so difficult that a lot of the bad guys are escaping justice.

CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, a vocal backer of the probe, said the decision shows it remains difficult to mount a case even after the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul eased some restrictions.

“It’s been the most frustrating and disappointing non-policy related item since I joined the CFTC in 2007,” Mr. Chilton said. “Our manipulation standard remains too high a hurdle for regulators to overcome; not enough bad actors are being punished.”

The CFTC has won recent acclaim for aggressive enforcement efforts in markets including interest rates, crude oil and platinum. But even with expanded powers to police derivatives markets stemming from Dodd-Frank, the agency has successfully concluded just one case–In the power market–from trial through appeal in its 39-year history.

The conclusion comes as policy makers reassess the banking industry’s role in commodity markets. The participation by firms such as J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in businesses such as aluminum warehousing and power marketing have been the subject of congressional hearings and enforcement actions this year. The Federal Reserve is expected before 2013 ends to issue new rules governing banking companies’ participation in these markets.

Translation:  Even though the too big to fail banks such as JP Morgan have been found guilty of manipulating everything from the LIBOR rate to the price of aluminum the CFTC can’t find any evidence to prove that they manipulated the price of silver.

For an alternate view on silver market manipulation see How the COMEX Crashed the Silver Market and How Wall Street Pros Made Huge Profits On Silver ETF Crash As Small Investors Sold

Will The Fed’s “Beautiful Money Printing” Lead to Economic Recovery?

The End GameBridgewater’s Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful hedge fund investors, has put out a neat video explaining how the economic system works and how the suffocating burden of unmanageable debts can be reduced without propelling the world into uncontrollable inflation or a deflationary depression.

According to Dalio, every deleveraging  in history has involved a combination of cutting spending, reducing debt through defaults and restructuring, redistributing wealth and the printing of money by central banks.

Each method of deleveraging must be done in just the right amount to avoid tipping the economy into either deflation or inflation.  For example, spending cuts, also know as austerity, leads to falling incomes as less money is spent and debt burdens becomes even more untenable as deflation sets in.  Fewer jobs and higher unemployment from spending cuts require even further spending cuts and this vicious cycle of lower incomes and higher debts ultimately leads to a severe economic contraction known as a depression.  Increased taxes on the wealthy to redistribute spending power to the poor and debt write offs must also be conducted in measured amounts to avoid social unrest between the “haves and have nots.”

Money printing by the central bank is also essential in Dalio’s view since interest rates are already at zero and printed money is necessary to make up for disappearing credit.   If money printing along with spending cuts, wealth distribution and debt restructuring are done in just the right proportions, a “beautiful deleveraging” occurs resulting in declining debts and strongly positive economic growth.  If the four factors of develeraging are done properly, money printing will not cause inflation since the printed money merely offsets the credit destruction triggered by reduced lending and borrowing and debt restructurings.

Dalio does not explain how the central bank and central government can accurately determine how to precisely apply his four develeraging factors to get the economy back on track.  In addition, Dalio admits that the whole system winds up falling apart if incomes do not grow faster than debt.  If debts continue to grow at 4% and incomes increase by only 2%, the debt burdens continue to grow, the economic problems compound and banks continue to cut back on lending until incomes increase.

Income growth can outpace debt growth, according to Dalio, if the Fed prints “just the right amount of money.”  Good luck with that – the members of the Fed can’t even agree on whether or not money printing is causing more harm than good and the Fed’s money printing efforts have been totally counterproductive in attempting to increase incomes as Household Incomes Remain Flat.

Over a longer perspective, the figures reveal that the income of the median American household today, adjusted for inflation, is no higher than it was for the equivalent household in the late 1980s.

For all but the most highly educated and affluent Americans, incomes have stagnated, or worse, for more than a decade. The census report found that median household income, adjusted for inflation, was $51,017 in 2012, down about 9 percent from an inflation-adjusted peak of $56,080 in 1999, mostly as a result of the longest and most damaging recession since the Depression. Most people have had no gains since the economy hit bottom in 2009.

Government programs remain a lifeline for millions. Unemployment insurance, whose eligibility the federal government expanded in response to the downturn, kept 1.7 million people out of poverty last year. Food stamps, if counted as income, would have kept out four million.

Since the recession ended in 2009, income gains have accrued almost entirely to the top earners, the Census Bureau found. The top 5 percent of earners — households making more than about $191,000 a year — have recovered their losses and earned about as much in 2012 as they did before the recession. But those in the bottom 80 percent of the income distribution are generally making considerably less than they had been, hit by high rates of unemployment and nonexistent wage growth.

The Fed’s money printing rampage has done nothing but inflate the cost of living for the average American even as wages continue to spiral downward.  What will the Fed do next?  There is every reason to believe that the money printing will continue to expand as it did in the Weimar Republic as explained in The Economic Collapse.

There is a reason why every fiat currency in the history of the world has eventually failed.  At some point, those issuing fiat currencies always find themselves giving in to the temptation to wildly print more money.  Sometimes, the motivation for doing this is good.  When an economy is really struggling, those that have been entrusted with the management of that economy can easily fall for the lie that things would be better if people just had “more money”.  Today, the Federal Reserve finds itself faced with a scenario that is very similar to what the Weimar Republic was facing nearly 100 years ago.  Like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. economy is also struggling and like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. government is absolutely drowning in debt.  Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has decided to adopt the same solution that the Weimar Republic chose.  The Federal Reserve is recklessly printing money out of thin air, and in the short-term some positive things have come out of it.  But quantitative easing worked for the Weimar Republic for a little while too.  At first, more money caused economic activity to increase and unemployment was low.  But all of that money printing destroyed faith in German currency and in the German financial system and ultimately Germany experienced an economic meltdown that the world is still talking about today.  This is the path that the Federal Reserve is taking America down, but most Americans have absolutely no idea what is happening. It is really easy to start printing money, but it is incredibly hard to stop.  Like any addict, the Fed is promising that they can quit at any time, but this month they refused to even start tapering their money printing a little bit.

Long term investors in gold and silver should continue to accumulate positions at current bargain prices as part of a long term wealth preservation strategy.

Collapse of Bernanke’s Credit Bubble Will Destroy the Global Financial System

collapseBy: GE Christenson

The U.S. stock market is near all-time highs, while politicians and economists are blathering about recovery, low inflation, and good times, but instability and danger are clearly visible in our debt based monetary system. To the extent we rely upon the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, money printing, and credit bubbles, we are vulnerable to financial collapses. Perhaps a collapse is not imminent, but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility. Consider what these insightful writers have to say:

The Fantasy of Printing Money To Solve Problems

Bill Fleckenstein:

“Money-printing cannot solve problems. It doesn’t really give us much gross domestic product growth, as we have seen. It hasn’t really helped on the employment front either, as job growth is meager (of course, it is also hampered by other government policies). What money-printing has accomplished is to push the stock market high enough to cause people to once again become delusional in their expectations.”

Egon von Greyerz:

“Debt worldwide is now expanding exponentially. With absolutely no possibility of stopping this debt explosion, we will soon enter a period of unlimited money printing leading to a total destruction of paper currencies. The consequence will be a hyperinflationary depression in most major economies.”

Andy Hoffman:

“No, Larry Summers won’t be able to save the day… The damage is already done; and thus, NOTHING can turn the tide of 42 years of unfettered, global MONEY PRINTING – which as I write, has entered its final, terminal phase.”

Bullion Bulls Canada:

“So the ending is already clear. The U.S.S. Titanic is about to be intentionally sunk (again), and B.S. Bernanke’s ‘fingerprints’ will be planted all over the crime scene.”

CREDIT BUBBLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE

John Rubino:

“…nothing was fixed after 2008, just as nothing was fixed after the housing, tech stock, and junk bond bubbles burst. The response has been the same each time, only progressively more aggressive and experimental. That the financial, economic and political mainstream think that the system has been reset to ‘normal’ because asset prices are back where they were just before the 2008 crash is, well, crazy. With financial imbalances bigger than ever before – and continuing to expand – the only possible outcome is an even bigger crash.”

Bill Holter:

“THIS is where THE REAL BUBBLE is! The biggest bubble in all of history, (larger than the Tulip mania, South Sea, the Mississippi Bubble, 1929, current global real estate and global stock bubble combined then cubed) is the current and total global financial system. EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE is based on credit. In fact, over 60% of this credit is dollar based and ‘guaranteed’ by the U.S. government. The minor little problem now is that we have reached ‘debt saturation’ levels everywhere. There are no more asset classes left able to take on more credit (air) to inflate the balloon. The other minor detail is that the ‘asset’ that underlies the value of everything (the dollar and thus Treasury securities) is issued by a bankrupt entity. What could possibly go wrong?”

Discussion

Growing and healthy economies mean more people are productively employed. It appears that much of the “growth” in the U.S. economy over the last five years has been in disability income, food stamps (SNAP), unemployment, student loans, welfare, debt, and government jobs – none of which are productive. Examine the following graph of Labor Force Participation Rate – the actual percentage of the populace that is employed. Does this look like a healthy economy experiencing a recovery or a collapse in productive employment?

The damaging effects of 100 years of Fed meddling in the U.S. economy, many expensive wars, 42 years of unbacked debt based currency, and unsustainable growth in credit and debt have left the Western monetary system in a precarious position.

Using common sense, ask yourself:

  1. Can total debt grow much more rapidly than the underlying economy which must support and service that debt? FOREVER?
  2. Can government expenditures grow much more rapidly than government revenues? FOREVER?
  3. Will interest rates remain at multi-generational lows? FOREVER?
  4. Will a fiscally irresponsible congress rein-in an out of control spending system that our fiscally irresponsible congress created?
  5. Is another and larger (than 2008) financial collapse likely and inevitable?
  6. Do you still believe in the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, printing “money” and credit bubbles? Are you personally and financially prepared for a potential financial collapse?
  7. Have you converted some of your digital currencies into real money – physical gold and silver? Is it safely stored outside the banking system and perhaps in a country different from where you live?

Read: The Reality of Gold and the Nightmare of Paper
Read: What You Think is True Might Be False and Costly

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor