April 25, 2024

Precious Metals Prices Stumble In Wild Trading Week

Commodity and precious metal prices tumbled this week, with gold and silver prices snapping a streak of four consecutive weekly increases. Following the recent run up in prices, there had been some anticipation of a correction. In addition, there were concerns that the Fed’s announcement of the end of QE2 would result in an end to the flood of cheap money which has fueled the rise of commodities.

In the precious metals group, silver was the biggest loser with a drop of almost 30% from last Thursday’s closing London PM Fix Price.  (The London markets were closed on Friday, April 28th.)  The losses in silver far outpaced the declines in other precious metals and many place the blame squarely on the rapid fire multiple margin increases by the COMEX for trading silver futures (See How The COMEX Crashed The Silver Market).

Gold, platinum and palladium also had a tough week with respective price declines of 3.19%, 2.51% and 7.21%.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,486.50 -49.00 (-3.19%)
Silver $34.20 -14.50(-29.77%)
Platinum $1,789.00 -46.00 (-2.51%)
Palladium $721.00 -56.00 (-7.21%)

Precious metals have had previous serious declines without affecting the long term upward move in prices (see Measuring Declines From The High For Gold and Silver).  Overextended markets will correct but the fundamental forces pushing precious metal prices higher have not changed.  While dollars and other paper currencies can be produced in infinite quantity, the supply of gold, silver and commodities are finite.

Despite the Fed’s promise to stop printing money and its pledge of supporting a “strong dollar”, the dollar has had only a feeble recovery and is close to its all time lows.  The markets clearly have no confidence in Chairman Bernanke’s words and the weak dollar proves it.  Every bull market experiences temporary pullbacks and the precious metals are no exception.  Long term investors should view the latest price consolidation as another potential opportunity to increase positions.

Silver ETF Holdings Plunge As Market Selloff Continues, Gold ETF Holdings Show Small Decline

The amount of silver held by the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) plunged over the past week as the silver market experienced a major sell off.

Holdings of the SLV declined by 665.94 tonnes on the week.  To appreciate the magnitude of this decline, consider that the total silver  holdings of the SLV at its inception in April 2006 was 653.17 tonnes.  In addition to this week’s reduction in silver holdings, the SLV saw a drop of 130.49 tonnes in the prior week.

Holdings of the SLV had recently hit a record high of 11,390.06 tonnes on Monday April 25 as prices soared towards all time highs near $50 per ounce.  Silver held by the SLV Trust has declined by 1,002.8 tonnes or 8.8% from the record high, bringing holdings back to the levels reached on February 10th of this year.

The SLV currently holds a total of 334 million ounces of silver valued at $13.5 billion.  After recently reaching a high of $48.35 the SLV sold off sharply, closing yesterday at $38.27.  The SLV has declined by 21% from its all time high reached five trading days ago on April 28th.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

May 4-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,219.94 -9.70 -60.78
SLV 10,387.26 -665.94 -534.31

A multitude of factors, both fundamental and technical were cited for the sharp decline in silver prices including:

  • Five margin increases on silver futures contracts, including two new ones announced on May 4th by the COMEX.
  • Liquidation of silver holdings by a hedge fund run by George Soros.
  • Excessive speculation in silver as indicated by huge volume in SLV trading.
  • Manipulation of the gold and silver markets by large players with short positions..
  • A very overbought market described by some as a “religious fervor” for silver.
  • Profit taking at the technically significant level of $50 per ounce, last reached in 1980.
  • The end of QE2 announced by the Fed last week.
  • Huge record volume in silver futures trading.

In any event, silver has become significantly cheaper in the past week and the fundamental reasons for owning precious metals remain intact (see Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices).  Long term investors should welcome the shakeout of day traders and speculators from the silver market and view this as a buying opportunity.

Holdings of gold by the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) declined modestly by 9.7 tonnes.  Current gold holdings of the GLD amount to 39.2 million ounces valued at $60.4 billion.

The inability of politicians to seriously address the budget deficit and ballooning national debt provide a compelling reason to diversity out of the U.S. dollar and into precious metals.   The dollar is close to all time lows as numerous countries announce their intention to diversify out of dollars to protect their wealth.  The disclosure that Mexico had significantly increased its gold reserves this year highlights the flight from paper currencies.  Based on the fundamentals, long term investors should view a correction in precious metal prices as an opportunity to add to positions.

COMEX Increases Silver Margin Requirements for Third Time in Past Week

On Tuesday, May 3rd, the COMEX raised margin requirements for trading silver futures contracts. This was the third increase in the past week.

The new margin requirement per contract was increased from $14,513 to $16,200 for initial margin and from $10,750 to $12,000 for maintenance margin.  Hedgers in silver futures pay maintenance margin as initial margin while traders are required to post the higher initial margin amounts.

Effective last Friday, the COMEX had also increased initial margin from $12,825 to $14,513 and from $9,500 to $10,750 for maintenance deposits.

Two days prior to this, the COMEX had also raised margin requirements. On April 27th, margin for initial contracts were increased from $11,745 to $12,825 and margin for maintenance contracts was increased from $8,700 to $9,500.

The CME Group, which owns the COMEX, has been raising margin requirements in an attempt to reduce volatility and protect itself from potential losses generated by large price moves.  As recently as early February the initial margin requirement per silver contract was only $6,075.

Although margin requirements have been raised significantly, the margin required as a percentage of total contract value has remained within a relatively narrow range of between 6 and 8 percent.   The increase in COMEX margin requirements have merely tracked the increase in the price of silver.

Under current margin requirements, a price decline of 8% could wipe out the margin of a silver trader leaving the COMEX exposed to potential losses if the trader does not come up with additional cash.  As silver prices have climbed almost nonstop, the COMEX has raised margin requirements ten times over the past year in order to maintain the same percentage of margin to the silver value represented by one contract.

Even with the higher margin requirements, silver futures contracts allow a trader to make a highly leveraged investment.  One silver futures contract is for 5,000 ounces worth $218,050 at yesterday’s closing London Fix Price.  The new higher margin requirement of $16,200 represents only 7.43% of the value of  one silver futures contract.

After trading close to the $50 per ounce level late last week, silver closed Tuesday at $41.72 in New York trading for a loss of over $8 or 16% over the past two days.

Precious Metals Soar – Thank You Ben Bernanke

As predicted on Monday, the Federal Reserve policy meeting and subsequent press conference by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had the potential to cause an explosive move up in the precious metal markets. (see Federal Reserve May Cause Stampede Into Gold and Silver This Week)

At the conclusion of the Bernanke press conference it became clear that the Fed would maintain its policies of cheap credit and debasement of the dollar.  Subsequent economic reports showed a slowing economy, rising food and energy prices and a slowdown in consumer spending.  This was all the markets needed to hear and precious metal prices exploded upwards on the week.

Silver reached an all time high of $49.75 on Monday before pulling back on Tuesday to $44.60 and then resuming its upward streak after the Bernanke press conference.  The closing London PM Fix Price for silver settled at $48.70 on Thursday.  The London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York spot trading silver ended the week at $48.00, up from last week’s close at  $46.26.

Precious Metals Prices
Thurs PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,535.50 +31.50 (+2.09%)
Silver $48.70 +2.44(+5.27%)
Platinum $1,835.00 +23.00 (+1.27%)
Palladium $777.00 +12.00 (+1.57%)

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold closed Thursday at $1,535.50.  London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York trading, gold ended the day at $1,566.70, soaring $29.90.   From last week’s London Fix Price close of $1,504.00, gold exploded upwards for a gain of $62.70.

As precious metal investors racked up huge gains on the week, many were probably thinking of sending a thank you note to Ben Bernanke.  The reality is different.  Most investors, no matter how bullish they may be on precious metals, are probably diversified and do not have a 100% portfolio allocation to gold and silver.

Investor gains on precious metals, while helping to preserve wealth, may have only partially offset the wealth destruction caused by zero interest rates and falling home prices.  The majority of Americans have the bulk of their wealth tied up in their personal residence and bank accounts and  have seen major declines in their home equity and close to a zero return on savings.  Fed policies are driving more and more investors into the precious metals markets and soaring prices are proof of that.

As noted the London markets were closed on Friday, April 29.  Precious metals prices soared on Friday in New York trading with gold ending at $1,566.70, silver at $48.00, platinum at $1878.00 and palladium at $777.00.

Gold At Record High As Silver Price Soars Towards $50 – Why The Rally Will Continue

As government spending spirals out of control and the Federal Reserve perpetuates a deliberate strategy of currency debasement, precious metals prices continued to soar. Gold, as measured by the London PM Fix Price, closed at $1504.00, up $27.25 on a shortened four day trading week .

Gold has gained $86 during April and $185 from its January low of $1,319.  The price acceleration in April comes in the aftermath of the government’s dismal failure to reduce deficit spending, even as S&P warned of a credit ratings downgrade for the U.S.  The great budget compromise reached by both parties was soon exposed as a shameful hoax by the Congressional Budget Office, which said that government spending would actually be higher after the “budget cuts” due to gimmicks.

As unsustainable government debt continues to balloon and the Fed continues to print money, the dollar is getting trashed. Governments worldwide are taking steps to protect themselves from the Fed’s explicit policy of dollar debasement and this means selling dollars.  The US dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the year.  Gold and silver are becoming the de facto reserve currency, as the flight from dollars intensifies.

US Dollar- COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has continued to confound the bears with another standout performance, gaining $3.65 or 8.57% on the week, after gaining $2.39 in the previous week. The closing price for silver as measured by the London PM Fix Price was $46.26.   Silver is rapidly closing in on its all time closing high of $48.70 hit in January 1980. The current price momentum in silver could easily push silver into new all time highs next week.

The huge rally in silver prices has some wondering if there will be a pullback soon.  Silver has gained $8.63 per ounce this month for a 22% gain.   Since the January low of $26.68, silver has gained a spectacular $19.58 per ounce for a huge gain of 73%.  The question is not one of if, but rather of when there will be a pullback – a routine event in every bull market.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,504.00 +27.25 (+1.84%)
Silver $46.26 +3.65(+8.57%)
Platinum $1,812.00 +25.00 (+1.40%)
Palladium $765.00 -7.00 (-0.91%)

But perhaps the bears will have to wait a while longer for the much anticipated pullback.  The volume in put options on the silver ETFs has seen numerous days of record volume, implying that some big players are betting on a significant decline in silver prices.  Does the record put buying on silver reflect speculators betting on a silver plunge or merely long time silver investors hedging long positions?  Either way, the implication is that the expectations for a silver pullback seems to be growing, but markets rarely accommodate investors’ perceptions of when a market is truly overbought – expect higher silver prices to shock the put buyers in silver.

Long term, any price pullback in silver should be looked at as a gift.  Financial players should never “fight the Fed”  and in this case, both Federal Reserve and Government policies guarantee higher precious metals prices (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).

For Silver, This Time It’s Different

To many investors with a sense of history, the four most dangerous words are “this time it’s different”. The phrase is usually evoked in an attempt to justify why a huge price gain in a particular asset class can continue to defy common sense and historical valuation norms. A surfeit of explanations on why “this time is different” is usually enough to send seasoned investors to the exits.

Silver, having defied the low expectations of many investors, has now seen a monster rally of 392% from $8.88 in October 2008 to the recent market price of $43.67. The pace of the advance has gone almost vertical with silver gaining 60% from the lows of late January.

Long term silver investors no doubt remember the aftermath of the last rapid run up in silver prices to $48.70 in January 1980. Silver prices collapsed shortly thereafter and ultimately slid to the $5 range where it remained throughout the 1990’s. Silver dropped off the radar for most investors and remained dead money for 25 years before decisively breaking out of a very long base in early 2006.

Will history repeat with another meltdown in silver prices at some near point in the future, or is the rise in silver prices indicative of a major trend change in our economic future? I have never believed that the mechanical application of past price trends was a useful tool for predicting the future. Each point is history is unique with new players and new sets of circumstances. Understanding today’s fundamentals are far more important than ascribing importance to past events that are largely irrelevant.

To understand why silver prices are in the initial stages of a long term super cycle advance rather than a replay of the 1980’s, it is necessary to review the differences of the late 1970’s compared to our current situation. Gold and silver both advanced in the 1970’s as a booming, demand driven economy fueled inflation. The huge cost of financing the Vietnam War, low employment and surging wages all contributed to a steadily rising rate of inflation which peaked at 13.5% in 1981. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker finally stopped inflation dead in its tracks through a series of massive interest rate increases which brought the prime rate to a high of 21.5% in mid 1981. High interest rates caused a severe recession but by 1983, the rate of inflation had collapsed to 3.2%.

Both gold and silver moved dramatically higher during the inflation surge of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s but the meteoric rise in silver prices was driven by specific events. Wealthy brothers Nelson and William Hunt acquired a massive position in silver in an attempt to corner the market. Prices skyrocketed on the news and silver went from $11 per ounce in late 1979 to $48.70 in early 1980. Regulators did not take kindly to market manipulation and margin requirements on commodities were dramatically raised. The Hunt brothers’  ill conceived attempt to drive silver prices higher collapsed along with their net worth. Silver prices plunged to less than $11 per ounce within two months. The last great silver “bull market” lasted less than six months, driven not by fundamental demand but rather by heavily leveraged speculators.

Fast forward 30 years – the finances of governments worldwide have reached the tipping point under ballooning debt levels and massive deficits. Additional borrowing by insolvent nations to rollover debt simply delays the day of reckoning – more debt is not the solution for too much debt.

The message from the gold and silver markets is clear – governments have reached the limits on borrowing and the day of debt Armageddon is approaching. The accelerating exodus from paper assets to historical stores of value is only in its initial stages as desperate governments take desperate measures to stay afloat (see Smart Money Sees The Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver).

The great debt bubble of the United States and much of the rest of the world is reaching its end game as creditors realize that a stealth default of some type is inevitable via a combination of inflation, money printing, currency debasement and/or negative interest rates.  Nor is it likely that S&P’s lowered outlook on U.S. government debt to negative from stable will have any affect on reining in ballooning U.S. debt (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).

From a long term perspective, perhaps this time is not different but simply a replay of the history of currencies backed only by the “full faith and credit” of governments.  Voltaire had this to say regarding fiat money – “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero”.

2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins Release

On April 25, 2011, the United States Mint will make the first of the 2011-dated America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins available for purchase. This year’s release and distribution of the 5 ounce silver bullion series is expected to be much different than experienced for the previous year.

As with other bullion programs of the United States Mint, the coins are distributed through a network of authorized purchasers. A group of primary distributors may purchase the coins directly from the Mint in bulk quantities based on the market price of the metal plus a modest premium. For the 5 oz. ATB silver bullion coins, this premium is $9.75 per coin. After acquisition, the authorized purchasers resell the coins to other bullion dealers, coin dealers, and the broader public.

For this year’s offering, the US Mint will start by releasing two different designs featuring Gettysburg National Military Park and Glacier National Park, each with a mintage of 126,500 units. This will be followed by three additional designs released later in the year featuring Olympic National Park, Vicksburg National Military Park, and Chickasaw National Recreation Area. The US Mint has stated that their goal is to produce a minimum of 126,500 coins for each of these designs.

For the 2010-dated issues, all five designs had been released on the same date, late in the year. Each of the designs had production of only 33,000 units. This extremely limited mintage generated excitement with collectors, as the coins were viewed more as low mintage numismatic products than bullion coins. In an attempt to prevent price gouging, the US Mint would halt sales and impose terms and conditions on the distribution of the coins at the authorized purchaser level. This included capping the premiums on the coins and distributing directly to the public, with a household limit imposed.

For the upcoming releases, mintage levels are high enough that the US Mint will not impose similar terms on their distributors, except for the standard allocation (rationing) program and a requirement to certify that all of the prior year coins have been distributed in accordance with the rules previously set.

Gold and Silver Reach Record Highs While Ron Paul Weighs In On Spending Fiasco

Silver was again the star performer in the precious metals group, hitting a new yearly high of $42.61.  For  the second week in a row, silver has added over $2 per ounce as measured by London PM Fix Price.  After soaring $2.59 in the previous week, silver capped another standout week with a gain of $2.39.

As a long time patient investor in silver, the moves over the past couple of years have been nothing less than amazing.  In the early 1990’s, a one ounce silver eagle  did not cost much more than $5 per coin.  In just the past two weeks we have witnessed silver increase in value by $4.98 per ounce.  Am I nervous about the rapid appreciation or worrying about a correction that the main stream press is calling for?

Not in the least – I am in silver for the long term and the policies of our government and central bank virtually guarantee much larger profits in the future (see Why Gold and Silver Have No Upside Limit, and Budget Fiasco Sends Wrong Message To Creditors and The Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver).

Any price corrections in the precious metals (and yes they will happen) should be viewed as opportunities to increase positions.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,476.75 +7.25 (+0.49%)
Silver $42.61 +2.39(+5.94%)
Platinum $1,787.00 -16.00 (-0.89%)
Palladium $772.00 -26.00 (-3.26%)

Gold, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, hit another all time high, closing at $1,476.75, up $7.25 on the week after running up $51.50 in the previous week. After breaking out of its base in the $1,450 range, gold could be getting ready for a substantial move upwards.

Paper money is all about confidence and, to anyone paying attention, last week’s “budget compromise” proved conclusively that our government is absolutely incapable of reducing spending.  After threatening us with a government shutdown and terrifying half of the citizens of this Nation with a potential cutoff of entitlements, both political parties proclaimed victory with an inconsequential  spending reduction of $38 billion.  Keep in mind that this year’s deficit is almost 37 times the proposed spending cuts.

The problem with the “compromise cuts”  is that both political parties lied to us and they were called out by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which said actual spending would be reduced by only a laughable $352 million.  Futhermore, the CBO noted that when “emergency spending” and the cost of multiple wars is factored in, actual spending would actually be $3 billion higher than the 2011 budget forecast.  It is not by accident that gold and silver have been soaring.

Ron Paul, one of the very few courageous and honest politicians that this country is lucky to have, said the following in a commentary about the latest events in Washington.

Last week, Congress and the administration refused to seriously consider the problem of government spending.  Despite the fear-mongering, a government shutdown would not have been as bad as claimed.

A compromise was struck at the last minute, but until Democrats agree to rein in entitlement spending, and Republicans back off the blank checks to the military industrial complex, it all amounts to political gamesmanship.

Unfortunately, the compromises always seem to be just the opposite.  Instead of the left agreeing to cut social spending and the right agreeing to cut military spending, the right agrees to more welfare and the left agrees to more warfare.  In spite of all the rhetoric, we will go deeper in debt, the Fed will print more money, and the value of the dollar will continue to plummet.  How long will it be before foreigners stop buying our debt, and hyperinflation arrives?  Throughout history, empires have always overextended themselves through conquests and wealth transfers leading to eventual collapse, from the Roman Empire to the Soviet Union.  We are headed in the same direction and it seems only the chaos of the collapse of the dollar will stop the spending spree.  Arguing over funding for Planned Parenthood and NPR, though important, only shows that leadership in Washington either won’t face reality, or don’t understand how serious the problem is.

Of course, an actual government collapse would create serious problems for many people who have come to depend on government payments for healthcare, retirement income, their children’s education, and even food and housing.  However, these so-called entitlement programs are unconstitutional to begin with and have engendered a culture of dependence on wealth transfer payments that is out of control. It concerns me greatly that instead of dealing seriously with our situation, so many in Washington would rather allow the chaos that will ensue when all of the dependent people are suddenly cut off.  Better to look reality squarely in the face and tell people the difficult truth that government is simply not capable of managing people’s lives from cradle to grave as was foolishly promised.  We face trillions in deficits with any of the budgets under consideration.  Keeping those promises is, sadly, just not one of our options in the long run.  Better to admit the nanny state is coming to an end and we are no longer working on “compromises” but a transition – to a sustainable way of life, one that respects the constitution, the rule of law and property rights.

In a sign that perhaps the economy may not be as strong going forward as some seem to think, industrial metals platinum and palladium both sold off on the week.   Platinum ended down $16 at $1,787 while palladium lost $26 to $772.

Price Pullbacks in Silver Becoming Shorter and More Shallow

Silver prices continued streaking higher today on fears of a plunging dollar, rampant money printing by central banks, and talk in Europe of a looming debt restructuring (default) by Greece.

In late afternoon trading silver was up $1.22 to $41.88, a 3% gain for the day.  Since decisively breaking through the $15 price range in early 2008, silver has been in a major bullish uptrend with price pullbacks becoming shorter in duration and more shallow in their extent.

SILVER - COURTESY KITCO.COM

Silver reached an intermediary high of $20.92 in March 2008.  As the financial world headed for a meltdown in late 2008 and every asset class in the world was liquidated, silver experienced a sharp sell off and by October 2008 reached a low of $8.88.  The 2008 low represented a price consolidation of 40% from the base silver had established at the $15 range.

The ensuing recovery in silver took a little over a year before the price once again approached the $20 per ounce level.  In December 2009 silver hit a high for the year at $19.18.  After a brief consolidation below $18 in early 2010, silver broke out of its base in the $18 range  to reach a high of $30.70 in December 2010. The price of silver ended the year up $13.46, for a gain of 78.4% on the year.

In January of 2011 silver again consolidated briefly and pulled back $3.95 or 13% to a low of $26.68 on January 28th.  This month-long pullback turned out to be another fantastic buying opportunity as silver recovered its losses and rose to $36.60 by March 7th.

Over the next 7 trading days, silver consolidated again, declining  from $36.60 on March 7th to $33.88 on March 15th for a loss of $2.72 or 7.4%.  Silver then rallied again to a new annual of $41.37 on April 11th.

Silver’s most recent pullback was the shortest of them all, declining from $41.37 on April 11th to $40.22 on April 13th for a loss of $1.15 or 2.8%. The losses were quickly recovered and a new 31 year high was reached, with silver recently trading at nearly $42 per ounce.

Investors who seized the opportunity to purchase silver on price pullbacks over the past four years have made fantastic profits.  As the bull market in silver has progressed, these pullbacks have become shorter in duration and more shallow in price. This situation seems to be reaching its extreme, where pullbacks last not months, not days, but mere hours. Investors have started to capitalize on even the smallest price declines to increase their positions and drive prices higher.

Smart Money Sees the Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver Prices

A broad sell off in commodity prices triggered by a Goldman Sachs prediction of a “substantial pullback” in oil prices had little impact on the strong uptrend in gold and silver prices. Based on the London closing PM Fix Price, gold ended Tuesday off only $19 or 1.3% from Friday’s all time close. Silver, meanwhile, the absolute star of the precious metals group, closed Tuesday at $40.44, up 22 cents from Friday’s 31 year closing high. After the recent huge run up in both gold and silver prices, the very modest price declines suggests that the bulls are on the right side of the trade.

Every bull market has corrections and precious metals will not be an exception. The point to remember is that the U.S. has already passed the point of no return on its inevitable journey to a debt crisis.  The mainstream press focuses on the looming battle in Washington over raising the nation’s legal debt limit past $14.2 trillion, yet there is little discussion of the U.S. Government’s total unfunded liabilities of $75 trillion based on open ended entitlement programs.   The U.S. is in a debt trap from which a painless escape is impossible.

While the majority of Americans don’t know or don’t care about the spiraling debt disaster facing the Nation, smart money is taking steps to survive and profit from the inevitable day of reckoning.

One of the largest bond investors in the world who has a superb investment track record proclaims that U.S. debt securities have “little value.” In recent remarks, Bill Gross of Pimco candidly states his view on how the U.S. debt crisis will soon end. Mr. Gross states that Pimco has sold all holdings of U.S. debt because “they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden. Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.”

The smart money sees the future.  One logical investment alternative to preserving wealth is in the timeless currencies of gold and silver that governments cannot devalue.

The recent sorry spectacle in Washington only affirms that elected leaders are incapable of preventing an eventual U.S. default (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).  After scaring half of the old ladies in the country that they wouldn’t get their next social security check, both political parties declared victory after “reducing spending” by $38 billion – a fraction of a percent of total government spending.  Even worse, the Washington Post reports that many of the “spending cuts” are accounting gimmicks and budget tricks that will not reduce overall spending.

The great “achievement” of Congress becomes even more pathetic after considering that the national debt has expanded by $3 trillion in the past two years and projected budgeted spending will add almost another $10 trillion in debt over the next 10 years.  These horrendous projections assume a growing economy and no major adverse macro economic shocks.

Massive  levels of debt and spending commitments leave the U.S. with two ruinous policy choices.  Congress can cut spending dramatically and watch the economy collapse after which the Government would re-institute massive spending programs and quantitative easing on an unimaginable scale.  The second choice is the odds on favorite – continue the parabolic increase in spending and money printing and watch the economy implode as all bond investors (not just Bill Gross) refuse to purchase worthless treasury debt leaving the U.S. unable to meet its obligations. Either way, the inescapable dilemma that the Nation faces has created the perfect storm for gold and silver.