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Gold Bullion Coin Sales Plunge 63% In November and 20% YTD – Have Americans Given Up On Gold?

December 5, 2011 by 4 Comments

Total sales of American Gold Eagle bullion coins plunged in November according to production figures from the U.S. Mint.

Total sales of gold U.S. Mint bullion coins declined by 63.4% in November from the previous year.  Sales of U.S. Mint gold bullion coins declined by 19.5% on a year to date basis through the end of November.  A total of 41,000 ounces were sold in November 2011 compared to sales of 112,000 ounces in November 2010.  Year to date sales through November totaled 934,500 ounces compared to the previous year to date totals of 1,160,500 ounces.

The reduction in the purchase of U.S. Mint gold bullion coins continues a trend of reduced sales since the record breaking year of 2009 when a total of 1,435,000 ounces were sold.  Total gold bullion sales  for 2011 will probably slip below one million ounces for the first time since 2009.  If sales decline in December by the same percentage amount as in November, total 2011 sales of gold bullion coins will come in at 956,500 ounces.

A summary of gold mint bullion coin sales since 2000 is shown below.

Gold Bullion Sales Since 2000

Gold Bullion U.S. Mint Sales Since 2000
Year Total Ounces Sold
2000 164,500
2001 325,000
2002 315,000
2003 484,500
2004 536,000
2005 449,000
2006 261,000
2007 198,500
2008 860,500
2009 1,435,000
2010 1,220,500
2011 934,500
Total 7,184,000

Why would gold bullion coin sales be plunging when gold has been steadily rising?  Have Americans given up on gold?  Let’s look at various trends in gold sales to get some perspective.

-Annual sales of gold bullion exceeded a half million ounces only once before 2008.  The financial crash of 2008 precipitated concerns about the integrity of both the banking system and the U.S. dollar, causing a huge increase in demand for physical gold.  Gold bullion sales exploded higher in 2008 and sales for 2011 remain far above levels seen prior to 2008 despite the recent drop in sales.

-Based on the current price of gold, the total value of all gold bullion purchased from the U.S. Mint since 2000 is $12.6 billion.  This amount represents only a fraction of the amount of investment dollars that have flowed into gold over the past decade.  In addition to purchasing physical gold, investors now have the option to purchase gold through gold trust ETFs.  The amount of money poured into the gold trust ETFs is many multitudes greater than the investment in physical gold bullion coins.  For example, since their inception in 2005, the combined gold holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have grown to 47.2 million ounces valued at $82.5 billion.

-Gold ETFs have grown exponentially from their inception a short six years ago but the largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD), has not been able to exceed its record gold holdings of 1,320.47 tonnes reached on June 29, 2010.  In addition, billionaire John Paulson recently liquidated a substantial portion of his GLD holdings, although much of the selling may have been forced due to severe losses in his hedge funds.

-Gold trader sentiment is either bullish or bearish, depending on who you talk to.

-Central banks, which have been increasing their purchases of gold since 2000, have sharply accelerated their purchases of gold bullion over the past several years.  Central banks from Asia and Latin America have accounted for most of the increased purchases.

-According to the World Gold Council, global gold investment demand increased by 33% in the 2011 third quarter compared to the prior year.  Investment demand for gold bars and coins increased by 29% and global gold holdings by gold trust ETFs increased by almost 78 tonnes.  Demand for gold increased notably during the third quarter in Europe and China.

While it is indisputable that global gold demand has increased, the appetite for gold by U.S. investors seems to be diminishing.  What do you think?

 

 

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American Silver Eagle Bullion Sales Soar As Investors Buy At Bargain Prices

October 27, 2011 by 6 Comments

The US Mint’s latest monthly reports on the sale of American Silver Eagle bullion sales show that investor buying has hit all time record levels.

Total sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins in 2010 came in at a record high of 34,662,500.

With over two months remaining in 2011, sales of the American Silver Eagle have already surpassed the record level of 2010 with sales of 36,375,500 ounces.  If sales of the Silver Eagle for November and December match the levels of 2010, total sales for 2011 should total over 42 million ounces or more than 20% above the record breaking sales level of 2010.

A review of sales by month for 2011 indicate solid fundamental buying by silver investors.  Typically, buying of an asset will increase as prices go higher and decrease as prices decline.  This was not the case with the American Silver Eagles – despite a sharp sell off in May and September, monthly sales increased as investors took advantage of bargain prices.

Silver had a volatile year, selling at $30.67 per ounce at the beginning of the year and moving up to a high of $48.70 (as measured by the London PM Fix Price) on April 28th.  Silver closed yesterday at $33.47, up $2.80 or 9.1% on the year.

Based on strong fundamental demand for physical silver, expect silver prices to end the year considerably higher.

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US Mint Silver Eagle Bullion Sales On Pace For Record High

August 2, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Since Congress authorized the production of American Eagle Bullion coins in 1986, it has become one of the easiest ways for investors to accumulate a physical position in precious metals.   American Eagle Bullion coins have been available in gold and silver since the program’s inception.  Platinum has been available under the Bullion coin program since 1997.

The bullion coins are priced at the current market price of gold, silver or platinum plus a dealer markup.  The US Mint does not sell the bullion coins directly to investors but instead sells the coins to a network of Authorized Purchasers who resell  the coins to the public.  Unlike commemorative or numismatic coins, the bullion coins will closely track the price of the underlying precious metal making it easy for investors to follow the value of their bullion holdings.

The American Eagle Silver bullion coin is available only in the one ounce size and is particularly attractive to small investors as a cost effective way to hedge against inflation and debasement of paper money.  The US Mint’s American Silver Eagle Bullion program has been successful from the start.  The first year’s sales of bullion Silver Eagles in 1986 was 5,096,000.

Between 1987 and 2007 sales of the Silver Eagle averaged 7.1 million coins per year.  The lowest year on record for sales was in 1996 when sales of the coin were only 3.6 million.  Since 1986, sales of the American Silver Eagle  exceeded 10 million coins only two times during 2002 and 2006.

The financial crisis of 2008 resulted in a surge of Silver Eagle sales as worries intensified over the integrity of paper money and the soundness of the financial system.   During 2008 Silver Eagle sales soared to 19,583,500 coins which was a record high.  In 2009, sales continued to explode reaching 28,766,500 coins and 2010 was another year of record sales at 34,662,500.

Year to date sales of the Silver Eagle bullion coins during 2011 has now reached 25,530,000.  Based on average monthly sales during 2011, sales for the entire year could easily reach 42 million coins, up 20% over last year.

Investors in silver have preserved their purchasing power and increased their wealth.  As previously discussed, the dip in silver prices during May was a buying opportunity and silver prices should be hitting all time highs before year end (see How Soon Will Silver Hit New Highs?).

American Silver Eagle Bullion Sales 2011

 

 

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US Mint To Increase Production Of Silver Bullion Coins To Meet “Unprecedented” Demand

May 28, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The United States Mint announced that it will commence production of American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins at its San Francisco Mint.  For several years now, the Eagle Silver Bullion coins had only been produced at the Mint’s West Point facility.

In a press release this week, the US Mint noted that “Demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins remains at unprecedented high levels.   Adding production at the United States Mint at San Francisco provides manufacturing flexibility across the bullion and numismatic product lines to meet customer needs.”

In the face of huge demand for the silver bullion coins, the US Mint has been allocating orders among its authorized purchasers.  The high demand and limited production has lead to high premiums of up to $5 per coin for purchasers of the silver bullion coins.

The US Mint recently came in for criticism for its failure to meet demand for physical bullion coins.  In early April, during a hearing by the House Financial Services Subcommittee, Rep. Ron Paul criticized the Mint for its failure to meet public demand for silver and gold bullion coins.  Ron Paul linked the shortage of bullion coins to the “huge debasement” of the United State currency and said that it was “imperative” that the US Mint meet public demand for bullion coins.

The US Mint said that it has capacity to mint up to “several hundred thousand coins per week” at the San Francisco facility.  The Mint will use the same packaging and manufacturing process at San Francisco that it uses at West Point and the coins will not have a mint mark.

Although demand for the American Eagle Silver Bullion coins remain high, the purchase of 90% silver coins is becoming a more cost effective and popular way to invest in silver.  There is a very small premium or even a discount from bullion value on the purchase of 90% silver coins.

APMEX is currently selling a $1,000 face value bag of 90% silver coins which contain 715 ounces of pure silver for $27,541.80.  Based on today’s closing New York price for silver of $38.16 per ounce, the silver value of the bag of coins being sold by APMEX is $27,284.

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Physical Silver Shortage Worsens Due To Mint Rationing and Surging Investment Demand

April 26, 2011 by 1 Comment

The inability of the US Mint to meet public demand for gold and silver bullion products was discussed at a recent House Financial Services Subcommittee hearing.  Testimony by industry experts revealed that the US Mint was losing an estimated one-third of potential bullion sales because they cannot meet demand.

For the past several weeks the US Mint sales figures for Silver Eagle bullion coins have been essentially flat. The US Mint sells its bullion products in bulk to authorized purchasers (AP’s).  The AP’s resell the bullion coins to dealers who then sell the products to the public.  The US Mint has been rationing the 2011 Silver Eagle bullion coins to AP’s, leaving one to conclude that the flat sales of Silver Eagles have been the result of Mint production constraints or supply shortages, rather than flat or reduced market demand.

On past occasions, the US Mint has cited the lack of adequate supplies of silver planchets as the cause for the continuing rationing of silver bullion coin sales. Earlier this year, the Royal Canadian Mint admitted that they were having significant problems in sourcing silver since huge demand was outpacing silver supply.

Combine rationing and surging demand and the obvious result is a severe shortage of  physical gold and silver bullion products.  Confirming this situation, American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), announced yesterday that they were seeking to purchase US Mint bullion products from their customers in order to meet “recent incredible demand for gold and silver bullion products”.

APMEX, one of the country’s largest precious metals dealers, offered to purchase American Gold Eagles and American Silver Eagles at generous premiums over spot prices in order to secure inventory.  Despite the increase in the price of gold and silver, public demand obviously remains incredibly strong.

The American public has been provided with plenty of evidence that out of control deficit spending and money printing policies by the Federal Reserve are destroying the value of the paper dollar and they are acting accordingly (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).  A loss of confidence in paper money is fueling the rise in gold and silver prices as people seek to protect their wealth.  Any pullbacks in precious metal prices should be viewed as another major buying opportunity.

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Ron Paul Links Bullion Coin Shortage To Horrendous Currency Debasement

April 8, 2011 by 7 Comments

Rep. Ron Paul, during a Subcommittee hearing on problems at the US Mint, linked the shortage of gold and silver coins to the “huge debasement” of the United States currency.

The remarks came during a hearing by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy, entitled “Bullion Coin Programs of the United States Mint: Can They Be Improved?”  Four different coin and previous metals industry experts provided testimony on how to address ongoing problems with coin production and shortages.

After some lengthy discussion by witnesses and committee members regarding shortages of silver coin blanks and marketing and production problems at the US Mint, Rep. Paul focused on what he considered to be the primary reason why the US Mint was, at times, unable to meet public demand for gold and silver coins.

Listed below are highlights of Rep. Paul’s remarks at the Subcommittee hearing.

  1. It is “imperative” that the US Mint should be able to produce an adequate supply of coins to the U.S. public.  According to Rep. Paul, investors are rushing to purchase gold and silver due to quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
  2. The US Mint should take the appropriate steps to source enough planchets to meet public demand for gold and silver coins.  People are worried, stated Rep. Paul, and are trying to preserve their wealth through the purchase of gold and silver due to government policies that will lead to inflation and debasement of the currency.  Rep. Paul stated that “If we had a sound currency” there would not be a shortage of gold and silver coins since demand by the public would be a non event.
  3. Rep. Paul detailed the “horrendous huge debasement” that has occurred with the US currency.  In the early 1930’s, when gold was on a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, the dollar was worth 1/20 ounce of gold.  It was subsequently devalued to 1/35 ounce of gold during the 1940’s, to 1/38 ounce of gold in the early 1970’s and to 1/42 in 1973.  Once it became legal for US citizens to own gold and the dollar was based on market prices, the value of one dollar subsequently dropped to 1/1450 ounce of gold.
  4. Rep. Paul noted that total annual demand during 2011 for Silver Eagle bullion coins should reach 48 million ounces, but that total US silver production would amount to only 40 million ounces.  The US Mint should take all necessary steps to ensure that adequate supplies of silver are available to meet public demand for silver coins.

Although not specifically addressed, the issue of whether the US government is making an effort to limit the sale of gold and silver coin to the public remains an open question.  By law, the US Mint is required to produce coins “in quantities and qualities that the Secretary determines are sufficient to meet public demand”.  There were no US Mint representatives present at the Subcommittee hearing to explain why the US Mint is unable to comply with production mandates specified by law.

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United States Mint Bullion Program Net Margin Remains at 1.9%

January 25, 2011 by 1 Comment

Amidst increased demand for physical gold and silver investment products, the United States Mint achieved record revenue from the sale of bullion coins during their 2010 fiscal year. Annual sales totaled $2.86 billion, which yielded net income of $55.2 million for the segment.

The US Mint produces gold, silver, and platinum bullion coins which are distributed through a network of authorized purchasers. The various programs were authorized by Congress, and the weight, content, and purity of each bullion coin is guaranteed by the U.S. government.

During the fiscal year ending September 30, 2010, the US Mint issued one ounce American Silver Eagles; one ounce, half ounce, quarter ounce, and tenth ounce American Gold Eagles; and one ounce American Gold Buffalo coins. The American Platinum Eagle, which is typically produced in four different bullion weights, was not produced or issued during the year.

Because the purpose of the US Mint’s bullion coin programs is to provide investors with a convenient and cost effective method for investing in precious metals, the programs are managed to a nominal net margin. The bullion coins are sold to authorized purchasers based on the current market price of the metal plus a fixed or percentage mark up to cover minting, distribution, and marketing costs, as well as a net margin targeted at or below 2%. For the past three years, the net margin has remained steady at 1.9%.

The US Mint utilizes a hedging program to avoid the risk related to fluctuations in silver costs. Silver is purchased in large quantities on the open market and then an interest in that silver is sold to a trading partner. The US Mint maintains physical custody and title to the silver. As finished silver bullion coins are sold to authorized purchasers, the trading partner’s interest is repurchased. Transaction fees related to the hedging program were $170,000 for the 2010 fiscal year.

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US Mint Added New Silver Blank Supplier in 2010

January 18, 2011 by Leave a Comment

For much of the past three years, the United States Mint has struggled to keep up with the boom in demand for physical precious metals. Although they have been required to mint and issue American Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities sufficient to meet public demand, they have often fallen short of this mandate, resorting to sales suspensions and rationing programs.

The US Mint’s 2010 Annual Report details some of the specific steps they have taken to increase the quantity of precious metals blanks that they are able to acquire:

  • The US Mint worked with their existing precious metals blanks fabricators to revise delivery schedules to fit production levels. Level loading materials allowed these fabricators to increase productivity and increase output.
  • A new silver blank fabricator began delivering blanks late in the fiscal year. The US Mint also continues to pursue additional suppliers. The reliance on a small number of foreign suppliers was previous noted as the “heart of the problem” in the US Mint’s struggle to manufacture sufficient gold and silver bullion coins.
  • Productivity and efficiency enhancements were implemented at the West Point Mint. Coin encapsulation and packaging processes were automated, employees were trained to handle more areas of responsibility, and coordination with suppliers allowed continuous assaying, inspection, and coin production to take place.

The US Mint cited the results of their efforts during the year:

  • The average monthly supply of all gold and silver blanks from vendors increased from 2.6 million ounces to 4.1 million ounces.
  • Output at the West Point Mint increased from 175 ounces per labor hour to 215 ounces per labor hour.
  • By August 2010, the US Mint had sufficiently expanded supply to remove order limits and fully satisfy demand for silver bullion coins by August 2010.
  • Popular numismatic products like the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles and 2010 Proof Silver Eagles were launched in October and November 2010. These offerings had been canceled in the previous year.

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America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins on Hold

December 7, 2010 by 3 Comments

The America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins should have been released on December 6, 2010, but instead the program has been delayed by the United States Mint. The delay was prompted by widespread complaints about secondary market prices, which had risen to more than two times the value of the 5 ounces of silver content.

As a bullion product, the coins were to be distributed through the US Mint’s network of authorized purchasers. A small group of primary distributors would be allowed to purchase the coins directly from the Mint at a price based on the market value of the silver content plus a premium of $9.75 per coin. Because of the expected high demand for the coins and the limited mintage available, the Mint urged the primary distributors to keep prices reasonable.

At least one primary distributor began offering the coins for sale at a premium of around $130 per coin over the market value of the silver content. Other bullion and coin dealers further down the distribution chain began offering the coins for even higher prices. The situation ultimately led to a flood of complaints, which caused the US Mint to halt deliveries to primary distributors while they determined the best course of action.

Based on a statement provided by the US Mint, they are currently, “evaluating these reports and collecting information in order to assess the appropriate course of action to make certain that our customers are best served in the distribution of the coins, and to ensure the widest possible availability, accessibility and affordability of these coins.”

The situation stems from the fact that each of the five 2010 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will have production of only 33,000 units each. The low mintage and high demand for the coins make them more akin to modern rarities than bullion coins. The other bullion coins distributed through authorized purchasers are produced in large quantities to ensure that they are priced and treated like commodities.

In order to accomplish their goals of “availability, accessibility, and affordability,” the natural course of action for the US Mint would be to distribute the coins directly to the public. The US Mint has sold low mintage numismatic products to the public in the past. They have imposed ordering limits or other procedures deemed necessary to achieve fair and widespread distribution.

Unfortunately, this option does not seem to be allowed under the law authorizing the bullion series, which calls for the coins to be distributed through the authorized purchaser network.

Other seemingly logical options such as selling the 2010 releases into the following year or completely scrapping the program for 2010 are also not possible under law. The Mint is required to strike and make the coins available for sale. The bullion coins may only be available for sale during the year in which the corresponding circulating quarter dollars are issued.

Keeping in mind the legal requirements, what options does the US Mint really have for the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins?

  1. Distribute existing production through AP’s and require them to keep prices at a “reasonable” level set by the US Mint. The problem with this option is that the US Mint can only impose such pricing requirements at the primary distributor level. Most primary distributors don’t sell directly to the public, but resell to other bullion dealers. The retail prices would simply be marked up at the next level before reaching the consumer.
  2. Distribute the existing production through the National Park Service. The authorizing legislation allows the NPS to purchase the bullion coins directly from the Mint for resale to the public. Currently the NPS uses partner organizations or concessioners operating under contract to sell products at National Parks. Potentially, the NPS could create pricing and distribution guidelines for their concessioners to follow when offering the coins for sale. The US Mint could assist the NPS in formulating these guidelines.
  3. Increase the premiums charged to primary distributors to a higher level. It seems possible that the US Mint may have underestimated the costs of production anyway. One long time coin dealer stated that their calculations were likely based on much higher production levels, which would have allocated fixed costs over a greater number of units. The US Mint could recalculate the premium charged to primary distributors based on the actual limited production. This would prevent primary distributors from absorbing additional premiums, which were really just attributable to misallocated costs borne by the Mint.
  4. Increase the number of 2010 ATB Silver Bullion Coin minted to a level appropriate for a bullion product. The Secretary of the Treasury has discretion to establish the number of bullion coins available, so the number authorized could certainly be increased. However, with a complicated manufacturing process and less than one month to go, additional production is probably not be possible. Presumably, the low production level announced was the maximum number that the US Mint could reasonably produce before year end.
  5. Seek a change to the legal requirements for the coins. This would require some very prompt action from Congress, which seems unlikely. At mid year or earlier, the US Mint had asked for modifications to some of the more troublesome specifications for the 5 ounce bullion series. The bill containing these fixes (and a questionable modification to the Gold and Silver Eagle laws) was only recently passed in the House and Senate.

When the US Mint announced the halt of the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coin Program, I hope they realized that an easy solution was not apparent. Whatever choice they make to address the issues created by this year’s coins will likely upset someone. Even though they haven’t been issued yet, the coins have already been sold and resold on the secondary market based on a certain production and rarity perception.

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New US Mint Silver Bullion Coin Series Starts Next Week

December 3, 2010 by 4 Comments

The release date, mintages, and premiums for  the United States Mint’s America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins were finally revealed this week. Precious metals investors and collectors were in for a few surprises.

As covered in a previous post, the coins will feature the same designs as the America the Beautiful circulating commemorative quarter dollars. This will result in five different issues per year from 2010 to 2020, and a single issue in 2021. The bullion coins will be struck in 5 troy ounces of .999 fine silver with the curious legal tender face value of 25 cents. Specifications include a diameter of 3 inches and thickness of 0.16 inch.

The release date for the new series will be December 6, 2010. This is the first date that the United States Mint’s authorized purchaser network can place orders for the new series. As with other bullion coins, the US Mint uses a small network authorized dealers to handle distribution. They purchase the coins in bulk quantities directly from the Mint and then resell them to other dealers and/or the public. Individuals are not able to buy the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins directly from the Mint, but must purchase them from a bullion dealer or other market source.

The US Mint will only be producing 33,000 units for each of the 2010 designs. This results in total production of 165,000 of the silver bullion coins. It had previously been reported that 500,000 would be struck, but for unspecified reasons this amount was reduced. In terms of bullion, 825,000 ounces (165,000 of the 5 ounce coins) is an incredibly small amount. In the last  month, the US Mint sold more than 4.2 million ounces of silver bullion.

Premiums charged to authorized purchasers for the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will be $9.75 per coin. This is a very reasonable amount, but the premiums that are paid on the secondary market might be another matter. At the primary distribution level, the US Mint has warned authorized purchasers to set premiums at a level “competitive with those charged for other bullion coins.” I think the primary dealers will do their best to follow this mandate, but at subsequent levels of distribution, market forces will take precedence and drive prices higher.

In the first quarter of 2011, the US Mint will offer numismatic versions of the 5 ounce silver coins. These will be limited to only 27,000 units each. This will be another adventure waiting to happen. However, in this case the US Mint will sell the coins directly to the public at fixed prices, and will likely impose household limits to ensure broad distribution.

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