May 19, 2024

Insights From One Of The World’s Lengendary Gold Experts

The Standard & Poors 500 stock index is still below the level it reached more than 10 years ago in early 2000.  Interest rates on traditional bank savings have barely exceeded zero percent since the Fed instituted its zero interest rate policies in 2008.  Meanwhile, incomes are stagnant and the cost of items we use everyday have been inexorably increasing.

Investors who expected to achieve financial independence by investing in actively managed stock mutual funds have seen their dreams turn to nightmares.  The brutal truth is that the vast majority of mutual fund managers do not beat the market over the long run.   Investors who did not diversity out of traditional investments have seen the value of their savings diminished by inflation and stagnant stock prices.

By contrast, one legendary gold investor who has consistently made great calls in the precious metals markets has achieved average annual returns over the past ten years of over 29%.  Money doubles in about 2.5 years at 29%.  Investors who had the patience and conviction to ride out inevitable corrections have seen fabulous returns.

The man who achieved this stunningly successful investment record is Harvard educated John Hathaway, who has been with the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) since its inception in 1998.  Hathaway’s success has been based on his ability to chose smaller mining companies that have the potential for explosive growth and then patiently wait for results.  The average gold mutual fund has an annual holdings turnover of 104% compared to 9% at TGLDX.  While other fund managers frenetically trade mining stocks, Hathaway’s deep knowledge of the companies he invests in has resulted in superior investment returns.  Also benefiting shareholders is the fact that the TGLDX does not charge  front end or deferred sales loads which reduce investor returns.

The TGLDX has soundly beaten the investment performance of both gold bullion and the widely followed PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU) which holds a broad basket of gold and silver stocks.  Since 2000, the TGLDX has returned approximately 810% compared to 500% for gold bullion and 325% for the XAU.

TGLDX VS XAU - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

When John Hathaway speaks, serious gold and silver investors pay attention.  In the Tocqueville Gold First Quarter 2011 Observations, Mr. Hathaway explained why he remains positioned for further gains in the precious metals and related equities.

Mr. Hathaway noted that his current position on gold is based on interrelated macro economic issues which make the “current landscape especially tricky”.   Hathaway noted that “the Fed seems predisposed to maintain extremely lax monetary conditions” and that “a credible fiscal plan seems like a long shot”.   Conditions in the Middle East could worsen considerably, energy prices are likely to remain at levels that seemed “unthinkable” a year ago and if there is political resistance to the Fed reducing its balance sheet, “the conditions are ripe for an inflationary spiral”.

The dollar appears to be deeply oversold and a near term rally could slow gold’s uptrend, according to Hathaway.

Mr. Hathaway feels that by mid year, the outlook will be more clear but in the meantime, “we remain positioned for further advances in precious metals”.

The top 8 stock holdings of TGLDX at March 31, 2011 were Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), IAMGold (IAG), Ivanhoe (IVN),  Silver Wheaton (SLW), Gold Resource Corp (GORO), Osisko Mining (OSK) and Randgold Resources (GOLD).

Silver And Gold ETFs Stable – Bank Savings vs. Precious Metals and How Much Is a Trillion?

As the silver market stabilized after last week’s sell off, holdings of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) increased by 153.22 tonnes over the past week.

Since the beginning of the year, the SLV holdings have declined by 381.09 tonnes, but the largest decrease in holdings tracks the silver sell off that began in late April.  From a record high holding of 11,390.06 tonnes of silver on April 25th, the SLV has seen a decline in holdings of 849.58 tonnes.   The reduction of holdings since April 25th exceeds the amount of silver originally held by the SLV at its inception in April 2006 when it held 653.17 tonnes.

One indication of the amount of forced selling that occurred last week is reflected by the premium/discount on the SLV compared to its net asset value.  On April 25th, when the SLV had peak holdings and silver was surging towards the $50 level, the premium on SLV shares was 1.48%.  Investors at that point were paying $45.83 per share while the SLV’s net silver assets were $45.14.  Two days later and trading at very high volume, investors paid $47 per share for the SLV which held silver worth $44.20, a fat premium of 6.29%.

The first week of May saw a steep price decline in silver caused, in large part, by five margin increases by the COMEX on silver futures trading (see How The Comex Crashed The Silver Market).  Forced selling of the SLV resulted in huge discounts from net asset value.  On May 2nd, the discount on the SLV reached a huge 9.87% and sellers of the SLV were receiving only $42.79  for shares with a net asset value of silver worth $47.51.  On Monday and Tuesday of this week, pricing became orderly with only a minor difference between net asset value and market value of the SLV.

The SLV currently holds 338.9 million ounces of silver valued at $13.3 billion.  Despite the recent sell off, silver has had a spectacular performance this year.   From its January low of $26.68 to its closing New York spot price on May 11th of $35.27, silver has risen by 32%, proving the case for diversification into precious metals.

By contrast, savers of paper currency in banks have been treated to returns of virtually zero, courtesy of Ben Bernanke’s zero interest rate policies.  As the public wakes up to the fact that their paper currency savings are becoming worth less and less, the demand for both gold and silver should increase exponentially.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

May 11-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,201.04 -18.90 -79.68
SLV 10,540.48 +153.22 -381.09

Holdings of gold by the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) declined by 18.90 tonnes on the week.  The GDL currently holds 38.6 million ounces of gold valued at $58.2 billion.

How Much Is A Trillion?

Sometimes a very routine event can open your eyes and keep you on the right long term track.  Last week I was having breakfast in Mexico and casually put a tip of a couple of U.S. dollars on the table.  (Yes, they still take our paper money in Mexico).   Gazing at the paper dollars I reflected on how, as a child, two hours of working odd jobs for neighbors would earn me two dollars.

Then, I tried to figure out how big the table would have to be to hold the $2 trillion dollars printed out of thin air by the Federal Reserve over the past couple of years.   At this point, my wife started getting annoyed with me, so I gladly restrained myself from an academic exercise that was fruitless anyways.   How many people can comprehend a trillion dollars?  Not me, but I know it’s a crazy large amount.  I also know that anything that can be produced in the trillions at virtually no cost cannot have any real long term fundamental value.  And that’s all I really need to know to make me indifferent to a short term sell off in the gold and silver markets.

Precious Metals Prices Stumble In Wild Trading Week

Commodity and precious metal prices tumbled this week, with gold and silver prices snapping a streak of four consecutive weekly increases. Following the recent run up in prices, there had been some anticipation of a correction. In addition, there were concerns that the Fed’s announcement of the end of QE2 would result in an end to the flood of cheap money which has fueled the rise of commodities.

In the precious metals group, silver was the biggest loser with a drop of almost 30% from last Thursday’s closing London PM Fix Price.  (The London markets were closed on Friday, April 28th.)  The losses in silver far outpaced the declines in other precious metals and many place the blame squarely on the rapid fire multiple margin increases by the COMEX for trading silver futures (See How The COMEX Crashed The Silver Market).

Gold, platinum and palladium also had a tough week with respective price declines of 3.19%, 2.51% and 7.21%.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,486.50 -49.00 (-3.19%)
Silver $34.20 -14.50(-29.77%)
Platinum $1,789.00 -46.00 (-2.51%)
Palladium $721.00 -56.00 (-7.21%)

Precious metals have had previous serious declines without affecting the long term upward move in prices (see Measuring Declines From The High For Gold and Silver).  Overextended markets will correct but the fundamental forces pushing precious metal prices higher have not changed.  While dollars and other paper currencies can be produced in infinite quantity, the supply of gold, silver and commodities are finite.

Despite the Fed’s promise to stop printing money and its pledge of supporting a “strong dollar”, the dollar has had only a feeble recovery and is close to its all time lows.  The markets clearly have no confidence in Chairman Bernanke’s words and the weak dollar proves it.  Every bull market experiences temporary pullbacks and the precious metals are no exception.  Long term investors should view the latest price consolidation as another potential opportunity to increase positions.

Silver ETF Holdings Plunge As Market Selloff Continues, Gold ETF Holdings Show Small Decline

The amount of silver held by the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) plunged over the past week as the silver market experienced a major sell off.

Holdings of the SLV declined by 665.94 tonnes on the week.  To appreciate the magnitude of this decline, consider that the total silver  holdings of the SLV at its inception in April 2006 was 653.17 tonnes.  In addition to this week’s reduction in silver holdings, the SLV saw a drop of 130.49 tonnes in the prior week.

Holdings of the SLV had recently hit a record high of 11,390.06 tonnes on Monday April 25 as prices soared towards all time highs near $50 per ounce.  Silver held by the SLV Trust has declined by 1,002.8 tonnes or 8.8% from the record high, bringing holdings back to the levels reached on February 10th of this year.

The SLV currently holds a total of 334 million ounces of silver valued at $13.5 billion.  After recently reaching a high of $48.35 the SLV sold off sharply, closing yesterday at $38.27.  The SLV has declined by 21% from its all time high reached five trading days ago on April 28th.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

May 4-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,219.94 -9.70 -60.78
SLV 10,387.26 -665.94 -534.31

A multitude of factors, both fundamental and technical were cited for the sharp decline in silver prices including:

  • Five margin increases on silver futures contracts, including two new ones announced on May 4th by the COMEX.
  • Liquidation of silver holdings by a hedge fund run by George Soros.
  • Excessive speculation in silver as indicated by huge volume in SLV trading.
  • Manipulation of the gold and silver markets by large players with short positions..
  • A very overbought market described by some as a “religious fervor” for silver.
  • Profit taking at the technically significant level of $50 per ounce, last reached in 1980.
  • The end of QE2 announced by the Fed last week.
  • Huge record volume in silver futures trading.

In any event, silver has become significantly cheaper in the past week and the fundamental reasons for owning precious metals remain intact (see Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices).  Long term investors should welcome the shakeout of day traders and speculators from the silver market and view this as a buying opportunity.

Holdings of gold by the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) declined modestly by 9.7 tonnes.  Current gold holdings of the GLD amount to 39.2 million ounces valued at $60.4 billion.

The inability of politicians to seriously address the budget deficit and ballooning national debt provide a compelling reason to diversity out of the U.S. dollar and into precious metals.   The dollar is close to all time lows as numerous countries announce their intention to diversify out of dollars to protect their wealth.  The disclosure that Mexico had significantly increased its gold reserves this year highlights the flight from paper currencies.  Based on the fundamentals, long term investors should view a correction in precious metal prices as an opportunity to add to positions.

Precious Metals Soar – Thank You Ben Bernanke

As predicted on Monday, the Federal Reserve policy meeting and subsequent press conference by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had the potential to cause an explosive move up in the precious metal markets. (see Federal Reserve May Cause Stampede Into Gold and Silver This Week)

At the conclusion of the Bernanke press conference it became clear that the Fed would maintain its policies of cheap credit and debasement of the dollar.  Subsequent economic reports showed a slowing economy, rising food and energy prices and a slowdown in consumer spending.  This was all the markets needed to hear and precious metal prices exploded upwards on the week.

Silver reached an all time high of $49.75 on Monday before pulling back on Tuesday to $44.60 and then resuming its upward streak after the Bernanke press conference.  The closing London PM Fix Price for silver settled at $48.70 on Thursday.  The London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York spot trading silver ended the week at $48.00, up from last week’s close at  $46.26.

Precious Metals Prices
Thurs PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,535.50 +31.50 (+2.09%)
Silver $48.70 +2.44(+5.27%)
Platinum $1,835.00 +23.00 (+1.27%)
Palladium $777.00 +12.00 (+1.57%)

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold closed Thursday at $1,535.50.  London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York trading, gold ended the day at $1,566.70, soaring $29.90.   From last week’s London Fix Price close of $1,504.00, gold exploded upwards for a gain of $62.70.

As precious metal investors racked up huge gains on the week, many were probably thinking of sending a thank you note to Ben Bernanke.  The reality is different.  Most investors, no matter how bullish they may be on precious metals, are probably diversified and do not have a 100% portfolio allocation to gold and silver.

Investor gains on precious metals, while helping to preserve wealth, may have only partially offset the wealth destruction caused by zero interest rates and falling home prices.  The majority of Americans have the bulk of their wealth tied up in their personal residence and bank accounts and  have seen major declines in their home equity and close to a zero return on savings.  Fed policies are driving more and more investors into the precious metals markets and soaring prices are proof of that.

As noted the London markets were closed on Friday, April 29.  Precious metals prices soared on Friday in New York trading with gold ending at $1,566.70, silver at $48.00, platinum at $1878.00 and palladium at $777.00.

Gold At Record High As Silver Price Soars Towards $50 – Why The Rally Will Continue

As government spending spirals out of control and the Federal Reserve perpetuates a deliberate strategy of currency debasement, precious metals prices continued to soar. Gold, as measured by the London PM Fix Price, closed at $1504.00, up $27.25 on a shortened four day trading week .

Gold has gained $86 during April and $185 from its January low of $1,319.  The price acceleration in April comes in the aftermath of the government’s dismal failure to reduce deficit spending, even as S&P warned of a credit ratings downgrade for the U.S.  The great budget compromise reached by both parties was soon exposed as a shameful hoax by the Congressional Budget Office, which said that government spending would actually be higher after the “budget cuts” due to gimmicks.

As unsustainable government debt continues to balloon and the Fed continues to print money, the dollar is getting trashed. Governments worldwide are taking steps to protect themselves from the Fed’s explicit policy of dollar debasement and this means selling dollars.  The US dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the year.  Gold and silver are becoming the de facto reserve currency, as the flight from dollars intensifies.

US Dollar- COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has continued to confound the bears with another standout performance, gaining $3.65 or 8.57% on the week, after gaining $2.39 in the previous week. The closing price for silver as measured by the London PM Fix Price was $46.26.   Silver is rapidly closing in on its all time closing high of $48.70 hit in January 1980. The current price momentum in silver could easily push silver into new all time highs next week.

The huge rally in silver prices has some wondering if there will be a pullback soon.  Silver has gained $8.63 per ounce this month for a 22% gain.   Since the January low of $26.68, silver has gained a spectacular $19.58 per ounce for a huge gain of 73%.  The question is not one of if, but rather of when there will be a pullback – a routine event in every bull market.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,504.00 +27.25 (+1.84%)
Silver $46.26 +3.65(+8.57%)
Platinum $1,812.00 +25.00 (+1.40%)
Palladium $765.00 -7.00 (-0.91%)

But perhaps the bears will have to wait a while longer for the much anticipated pullback.  The volume in put options on the silver ETFs has seen numerous days of record volume, implying that some big players are betting on a significant decline in silver prices.  Does the record put buying on silver reflect speculators betting on a silver plunge or merely long time silver investors hedging long positions?  Either way, the implication is that the expectations for a silver pullback seems to be growing, but markets rarely accommodate investors’ perceptions of when a market is truly overbought – expect higher silver prices to shock the put buyers in silver.

Long term, any price pullback in silver should be looked at as a gift.  Financial players should never “fight the Fed”  and in this case, both Federal Reserve and Government policies guarantee higher precious metals prices (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).

Are Gold Stocks Really Underforming Gold Bullion?

Depending on which gold stock investor you talk to, gold stocks have either been under performing or outperforming gold bullion.

Theoretically, given the earnings leverage associated with gold miners, a big move up in gold bullion should translate into handsome gains for shareholders of gold mining companies as earnings per share increase.  In the real world, however, the cost of exploration and development, mine depletion and the energy intensive process of gold mining and refining can result in costs that exceed the increased revenue from higher gold prices.  Gold mining companies with operations in less developed countries with weak property rights can also wake up one morning and discover that the government has expropriated their mines.

So which is it?  Would it have been better to own gold stocks or simply buy a gold ETF or take physical possession of gold bullion?  Like many things in life, it all depends, and the result reinforces the argument to maintain a well diversified portfolio.

Gold miners that have been able to translate higher gold prices into higher profits have done very well while other gold miners with poor results have significantly lagged the gains seen in gold bullion.   The results have been company specific.  A gold stock investor who was correct in predicting higher gold prices but picked the “wrong” gold stocks fared poorly.

Here’s a sample of the relative performance of some of the largest gold miners compared to the price of gold, using the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) as a proxy for bullion prices.  Two major gold miners, Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) and Kinross gold Corporation (KGC), dramatically under performed the GLD, while Goldcorp (GG) tracked the GLD performance.  If you were lucky enough to own Randgold Resources (GOLD), your profits would have been twice the gains on the GLD.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE STOCKS VS GLD - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The bottom line is that unless an investor has considerable expertise in assessing the gold mining industry and specific company prospects, the better choice was to go with a gold ETF or stash gold bullion in a safe deposit box.  If the biggest gains in gold prices are yet to come, as I believe, an investor with a 100% allocation to individual gold stocks should consider reassessing his portfolio allocation.

The last option that should be mentioned for those seeking higher returns from the leverage of owning gold stocks instead of a gold ETF, would be to invest in a gold mutual fund with a solid track record of investment success.

Tocqueville Gold Fund Performance vs. GLD

The Tocqueville Gold Fund(TGLDX) is a highly regarded mutual fund with solid portfolio managers who have had a very successful track record in picking the right gold stocks.  Over the past two years, the TGLDX has outperformed the GLD and with far less volatility.

Gold and Silver Reach Record Highs While Ron Paul Weighs In On Spending Fiasco

Silver was again the star performer in the precious metals group, hitting a new yearly high of $42.61.  For  the second week in a row, silver has added over $2 per ounce as measured by London PM Fix Price.  After soaring $2.59 in the previous week, silver capped another standout week with a gain of $2.39.

As a long time patient investor in silver, the moves over the past couple of years have been nothing less than amazing.  In the early 1990’s, a one ounce silver eagle  did not cost much more than $5 per coin.  In just the past two weeks we have witnessed silver increase in value by $4.98 per ounce.  Am I nervous about the rapid appreciation or worrying about a correction that the main stream press is calling for?

Not in the least – I am in silver for the long term and the policies of our government and central bank virtually guarantee much larger profits in the future (see Why Gold and Silver Have No Upside Limit, and Budget Fiasco Sends Wrong Message To Creditors and The Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver).

Any price corrections in the precious metals (and yes they will happen) should be viewed as opportunities to increase positions.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,476.75 +7.25 (+0.49%)
Silver $42.61 +2.39(+5.94%)
Platinum $1,787.00 -16.00 (-0.89%)
Palladium $772.00 -26.00 (-3.26%)

Gold, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, hit another all time high, closing at $1,476.75, up $7.25 on the week after running up $51.50 in the previous week. After breaking out of its base in the $1,450 range, gold could be getting ready for a substantial move upwards.

Paper money is all about confidence and, to anyone paying attention, last week’s “budget compromise” proved conclusively that our government is absolutely incapable of reducing spending.  After threatening us with a government shutdown and terrifying half of the citizens of this Nation with a potential cutoff of entitlements, both political parties proclaimed victory with an inconsequential  spending reduction of $38 billion.  Keep in mind that this year’s deficit is almost 37 times the proposed spending cuts.

The problem with the “compromise cuts”  is that both political parties lied to us and they were called out by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which said actual spending would be reduced by only a laughable $352 million.  Futhermore, the CBO noted that when “emergency spending” and the cost of multiple wars is factored in, actual spending would actually be $3 billion higher than the 2011 budget forecast.  It is not by accident that gold and silver have been soaring.

Ron Paul, one of the very few courageous and honest politicians that this country is lucky to have, said the following in a commentary about the latest events in Washington.

Last week, Congress and the administration refused to seriously consider the problem of government spending.  Despite the fear-mongering, a government shutdown would not have been as bad as claimed.

A compromise was struck at the last minute, but until Democrats agree to rein in entitlement spending, and Republicans back off the blank checks to the military industrial complex, it all amounts to political gamesmanship.

Unfortunately, the compromises always seem to be just the opposite.  Instead of the left agreeing to cut social spending and the right agreeing to cut military spending, the right agrees to more welfare and the left agrees to more warfare.  In spite of all the rhetoric, we will go deeper in debt, the Fed will print more money, and the value of the dollar will continue to plummet.  How long will it be before foreigners stop buying our debt, and hyperinflation arrives?  Throughout history, empires have always overextended themselves through conquests and wealth transfers leading to eventual collapse, from the Roman Empire to the Soviet Union.  We are headed in the same direction and it seems only the chaos of the collapse of the dollar will stop the spending spree.  Arguing over funding for Planned Parenthood and NPR, though important, only shows that leadership in Washington either won’t face reality, or don’t understand how serious the problem is.

Of course, an actual government collapse would create serious problems for many people who have come to depend on government payments for healthcare, retirement income, their children’s education, and even food and housing.  However, these so-called entitlement programs are unconstitutional to begin with and have engendered a culture of dependence on wealth transfer payments that is out of control. It concerns me greatly that instead of dealing seriously with our situation, so many in Washington would rather allow the chaos that will ensue when all of the dependent people are suddenly cut off.  Better to look reality squarely in the face and tell people the difficult truth that government is simply not capable of managing people’s lives from cradle to grave as was foolishly promised.  We face trillions in deficits with any of the budgets under consideration.  Keeping those promises is, sadly, just not one of our options in the long run.  Better to admit the nanny state is coming to an end and we are no longer working on “compromises” but a transition – to a sustainable way of life, one that respects the constitution, the rule of law and property rights.

In a sign that perhaps the economy may not be as strong going forward as some seem to think, industrial metals platinum and palladium both sold off on the week.   Platinum ended down $16 at $1,787 while palladium lost $26 to $772.

Smart Money Sees the Perfect Storm for Gold and Silver Prices

A broad sell off in commodity prices triggered by a Goldman Sachs prediction of a “substantial pullback” in oil prices had little impact on the strong uptrend in gold and silver prices. Based on the London closing PM Fix Price, gold ended Tuesday off only $19 or 1.3% from Friday’s all time close. Silver, meanwhile, the absolute star of the precious metals group, closed Tuesday at $40.44, up 22 cents from Friday’s 31 year closing high. After the recent huge run up in both gold and silver prices, the very modest price declines suggests that the bulls are on the right side of the trade.

Every bull market has corrections and precious metals will not be an exception. The point to remember is that the U.S. has already passed the point of no return on its inevitable journey to a debt crisis.  The mainstream press focuses on the looming battle in Washington over raising the nation’s legal debt limit past $14.2 trillion, yet there is little discussion of the U.S. Government’s total unfunded liabilities of $75 trillion based on open ended entitlement programs.   The U.S. is in a debt trap from which a painless escape is impossible.

While the majority of Americans don’t know or don’t care about the spiraling debt disaster facing the Nation, smart money is taking steps to survive and profit from the inevitable day of reckoning.

One of the largest bond investors in the world who has a superb investment track record proclaims that U.S. debt securities have “little value.” In recent remarks, Bill Gross of Pimco candidly states his view on how the U.S. debt crisis will soon end. Mr. Gross states that Pimco has sold all holdings of U.S. debt because “they have little value within the context of a $75 trillion total debt burden. Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.”

The smart money sees the future.  One logical investment alternative to preserving wealth is in the timeless currencies of gold and silver that governments cannot devalue.

The recent sorry spectacle in Washington only affirms that elected leaders are incapable of preventing an eventual U.S. default (see Why There Is No Upside Limit To Gold and Silver Prices).  After scaring half of the old ladies in the country that they wouldn’t get their next social security check, both political parties declared victory after “reducing spending” by $38 billion – a fraction of a percent of total government spending.  Even worse, the Washington Post reports that many of the “spending cuts” are accounting gimmicks and budget tricks that will not reduce overall spending.

The great “achievement” of Congress becomes even more pathetic after considering that the national debt has expanded by $3 trillion in the past two years and projected budgeted spending will add almost another $10 trillion in debt over the next 10 years.  These horrendous projections assume a growing economy and no major adverse macro economic shocks.

Massive  levels of debt and spending commitments leave the U.S. with two ruinous policy choices.  Congress can cut spending dramatically and watch the economy collapse after which the Government would re-institute massive spending programs and quantitative easing on an unimaginable scale.  The second choice is the odds on favorite – continue the parabolic increase in spending and money printing and watch the economy implode as all bond investors (not just Bill Gross) refuse to purchase worthless treasury debt leaving the U.S. unable to meet its obligations. Either way, the inescapable dilemma that the Nation faces has created the perfect storm for gold and silver.

Gold Hits All Time High and Silver Breaks $40 as Precious Metal Demand Soars

Anything but paper dollars was the theme this week as investors rushed into anything of tangible value.  Gold, silver, oil and commodities of all types have been skyrocketing since last August when the Federal Reserve announced its second round of quantitative easing.

Gold closed at an all time high of $1,469.50 as measured by the London PM Fix Price and silver hit a 31 year high closing the week at $40.22.  Some analysts cautioned that the rapid rise in gold and silver prices could lead to a pullback, but overbought markets tend to defy such logic.  Gold has decisively broken through resistance at the $1,450 level and silver looks ready to challenge the all time high of $48.70 reached in 1980.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,469.50 +51.50 (+3.63%)
Silver $40.22 +2.59 (+6.88%)
Platinum $1,803.00 +30.00 (+1.69%)
Palladium $798.00 +26.00 (+3.37%)

The surge in precious metals prices reflects the obvious conclusion that developed nations of the world are on a trajectory with a potentially devastating debt crisis.  The budget antics in Washington make it clear to any impartial observer that spending will not be cut and the parabolic growth of debt will continue.  No one knows how the looming debt crisis will ultimately play out for the Nation, but one certain outcome is that the dollar’s purchasing power is likely to diminish greatly (see Ron Paul Talks About Horrendous Currency Debasement).

Gold rose by $51.50 on the week and is up over $300 per ounce over the past year.

GOLD - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has been the standout performer over the past year, increasing by over 122% since last August.  This week was no exception with silver sprinting past the $40 mark and gaining 6.9% on the week. Despite the large increase in the price of one ounce of silver, the Silver Institute reports that both investment and fabrication demand soared last year.  During 2010, world investment demand for silver increased by 40% and fabrication demand (which accounts for 83% of total silver demand) rose by 13%.

Platinum and palladium also rose on the week, recouping the price correction experienced after the Japanese earthquake.  Platinum rose by $30 on the week to $1,803 while palladium rose by $26 to $798.