March 28, 2024

Biggest Loser In April Gold Crash Sees $53 Billion Vanish

coinThe stunning and unprecedented April gold crash has staggered investors with huge losses.  Over the course of the first two weeks of April gold has declined by $203.50 or almost 13%.  Since the beginning of the year, gold has crashed $313.75 or 18.5%.

So who was the biggest loser in the gold market?  That distinction belongs to the U.S. Treasury which allegedly holds 261.5 million troy ounces of gold.  The April decline wiped out $53.2 billion and the value of U.S. gold holdings have declined by $134.7 billion from the early September 2011 peak closing price of $1,895.

Central bank holdings of gold have declined by over half a trillion dollars since the 2011 high.

Central banks are among the biggest losers because they own 31,694.8 metric tons, or 19 percent of all the gold mined, according to the World Gold Council in London. After rallying for 12 straight years, the metal has tumbled 28 percent from its September 2011 record of $1,923.70 an ounce.

Investors are dumping gold funds at the fastest pace in two years in favor of equities, compounding a slump that has wiped $560 billion from the value of central bank reserves.


The losses to private gold investors, who own about 80% of above ground gold, exceeds the gross domestic product of most countries.  Privately owned gold totals about 4.4 billion ounces and the price decline since late 2011 translates into a loss of wealth of $2.27 trillion.

courtesy: kitco.com

courtesy: kitco.com

So where does gold go from here?  Sophisticated investors know better than to sell after a market crash.  Even after the recent flash crash, gold has appreciated 410% since 2001 compared to only an 18% increase in the S&P 500.  It would not be surprising to see a repeat of this performance over the next decade.

Will John Paulson Dump His Gold Holdings?

John Paulson, famed for making billions ahead of the financial crash, is taking heavy losses on his gold holdings. According to Bloomberg, Paulson’s gold fund is down 28% as of March 31st.

As of the latest reporting period, Paulson hedge funds hold 21.8 million shares in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), worth a massive $3.1 billion as of Friday’s closing price of $143.95. Whether or not Paulson decides to cut his losses or double down could have a major impact on the future price of gold.

 

Physical Gold Inventories Plunge As Gold Market Crashes – How Can That Happen?

worldKyle Bass recently summed up the thoughts of many gold investors when he said “the largest central banks in the world, they have all moved to unlimited printing ideology.  Monetary policy happens to be the only game in town.  I am perplexed as to why gold is as low as it is.  I don’t have a great answer for you other than you should maintain a position.”

Gold investors can easily be forgiven for being perplexed, especially when considering that gold prices are plunging at a time when stocks of physical gold are being rapidly depleted at the COMEX warehouses.  Is this just one of life’s unsolvable mysteries or is the gold market being manipulated?  Bill Downey at Gold Trends lays out a solid case on how market manipulation caused last week’s gold collapse and why it makes more sense than ever to increase holdings in physical gold and silver.

 

There’s been a recent huge draw down of physical gold at the New York COMEX and at the JP Morgan Chase depository. Look at the physical market draw down on the charts below. It has taken a drastic plunge.HOUSTON — we have a problem.Physical inventory drawdown at JPM
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com

GoldInventoryJPMAPril2013
Physical Drawdown at COMEX
Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com
GoldInventoryComexApr2013
You can imagine the dilemma this is causing for the market interests behind these inventories. If the inventory runs out and one cannot meet deliveries then it has to be bought on the open market. Not only that but it could cause a run up in prices that would hurt the shorts in the market.So what to do?There is only one way out of this for the market controllers would be to devise a plan that would collapse the market and trip up all the stops at the correction lows in gold of 1525 thereby setting off the stop loss orders under this important market low. And what if the plan included a way to stop the physical market from purchasing gold under 1525 while that correction was underway?

And how can that happen?

They have to hatch out a plan and carefully orchestrate it in a series of events that takes the gold market by surprise and force the players out of their positions.

Read on for today’s lesson in market manipulation and allow me to relay my speculation about what transpired last week.

A successful ambush usually involves surprise.

One of the main new weapons in the FEDS arsenal is TRANSPARENCY.

After a lifetime of silence the FED all of a sudden has come out of the closet and has decided that the best thing for the market is to be transparent and to that end they now have televised communication meetings with the general public so chairman Bernanke can explain the FED policy and answer any questions that the market has on its mind as well as the usual minutes that get released to the markets that review the policy decisions and discussion of prior meetings.

Why does the Fed need to explain what they are doing now?

Well it isn’t because everything is going just fine. Put it this way. They must figure when you have 50 million people on food stamps and the Dow Jones is going up a few hundred points a week and making all time highs and you have 16 trillion dollars in debt and interest rates are zero, its best to have a communiqué every month before someone asks you to explain what is going on. It’s called staying ahead of the curve if you will. If you tell them what’s going on it makes it look like you know what you’re doing. Otherwise all we have is the statistics and by themselves they tell you something is wrong, something is terribly wrong. So they have become transparent.

During the last communiqué the chairman made it abundantly clear that QE was here to stay until the unemployment rate reached acceptable levels. This communiqué whether by personal appearance or by releasing the FOMC minutes of the prior meeting is something the FED relies on so market participants can remain comfortable and abreast of Fed monetary policy.

Three strikes and you’re out

The FOMC minutes from the last meeting were due for release during last week. But a funny thing happened. They got released EARLIER than expected. It was all a big mistake and the FED let the SEC and the CFTC know right away that the error had occurred. And lo and behold even with all its transparency there happened to be some language we didn’t get updated on until the FOMC minutes were released. The notes say that several members have been discussing cutting back on the stimulus. That was strike one. It got the gold market thinking that stimulus cuts might be coming.

Strike one

Surprise number two

Then a bombshell was released from news sources. It was reported that Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro’s of gold as part of the bailout package of raising money for their failed banking system. Gold prices came down to 1550 on the news and the day passed by. Even though Cyprus bankers tell us the next day that they didn’t discuss selling any gold, market jitters seemed to remain and Friday was just around the corner. This was strike two.

Now we need a strike three and you’re out. Gold is a nervous market to begin with as a lot of people have already lost a lot of money in the last six months.
With Gold at 1550, all that is needed for the market to drop is to get one more push where all the stops are (just below the 2 year low of 1525).

The selling began in the Friday sessions overseas. By time we got to the New York COMEX gold open, the price was down to 1542. Now all the players are there and the volume and liquidity is there to create the final blow to the market.

And then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling until gold got to 1525. Then they break down the price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting tripped up and the selling accelerates as it begins to feed on itself. The physical market for gold sees this as a gift and gets ready to make their move and buy up the gold.

Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.

ALL OF A SUDDEN THE LONDON PHYSICAL PLATFORM THAT BUYS AND SELLS PHYSICAL GOLD GETS LOCKED UP. THE SYSTEM FREEZES.

continue reading here.

 

Panic Selling Crushes Gold and Silver Prices – Bearish Sentiment Reaches Extreme Levels

goldThe precious metal markets, which have been under a constant drumbeat of negative news and bearish price forecasts for months, sold off sharply today.   Bearish investors seemed to reach the “give up” stage as gold and silver fell below key technical levels.  Panic selling continued to cascade throughout the day as precious metal investors hit the sell button and buyers stepped aside.

By the end of the trading day, gold dropped an astonishing $84 per ounce to close at $1,478, down over 5% on the day and below $1,500 per ounce for the first time since July 5, 2011.   Silver had an even worse day with a price decline of 6.5%, closing down $1.81 per ounce at $25.95.

Analysts had multiple reasons for the huge decline in gold and silver prices including the belief that inflation will remain subdued and the Federal Reserve would begin to slow the pace of monetary stimulus later this year.  In addition, many trend following investors are repositioning out of precious metals into other investment opportunities such as stocks which have appreciated by over 100% since the depths of the financial crisis.  By contrast, gold and silver  have been unable to breach highs reached in mid 2011.

Also weighing on investor’s mind was the fear that the proposed sale of over $500 million of Cyprus gold reserves would further pressure gold prices.  Comments in the Wall Street Journal suggested that other countries may also be forced to sell their gold reserves.

The news about Cyprus “gets people to wonder: Will there be central-bank liquidation of gold when other countries get into trouble?” said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Archer Financial Services in Chicago. “Selling gold might be the new caveat for any future [bailout] deals.”

The match that ignited the explosive move to the downside was struck on Wednesday when Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs predicted sharply lower gold prices and suggested that investors actually short the gold market.

The turn in the gold price cycle is accelerating after a 12-year rally as the recovery in the U.S. economy gains momentum, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which reduced forecasts for the metal through 2014.

The bank cut its three-month target to $1,530 an ounce from $1,615 and lowered the six- and 12-month predictions to $1,490 and $1,390 from $1,600 and $1,550. Goldman recommended closing a long Comex gold position initiated on Oct. 11, 2010 for a potential gain of $219 an ounce, analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report today.

“Despite resurgence in euro-area risk aversion and disappointing U.S. economic data, gold prices are unchanged over the past month, highlighting how conviction in holding gold is quickly waning,” the Goldman analysts wrote in the report. “While higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next gold cycle, this is likely several years away.”

Goldman cut its 2013 gold estimate to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610, trimmed its 2014 forecast to $1,350 from $1,490, and set year-end targets of $1,450 in 2013 and $1,270 in 2014. Goldman recommended starting a short Comex gold position, targeting $1,450 with a stop at $1,650, the analysts wrote.

Ironically, the biggest worry for gold and silver investors now comes from the precious metal ETFs, which greatly contributed to the precious metals bull market as investors poured billions of dollars in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  If investors in the GLD and SLV initiate panic liquidations, a sharp rebound in gold prices may be wishful thinking despite today’s huge sell off.  According to Goldman Sachs,  “The fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than our forecast, as aggregate speculative net long positions across Comex futures and gold ETFs remain near record highs.”

COURTESY: STOCKCHARTS.COM

COURTESY: STOCKCHARTS.COM

COURTESY: STOCKCHARTS.COM

COURTESY: STOCKCHARTS.COM

The bearish sentiment and price action on gold and silver seemed to have reached extreme levels.  Does anyone hear a contrarian bell ringing?

The Financial System Has Reached The Implosion Point

coinA profound thanks to all the short term fickle speculators in gold and silver who have shifted their portfolio allocations to stocks, bank accounts and certificates of confiscation government bonds .  The shift to paper assets has provided what will in hindsight be the best buying opportunity for gold and silver since the crash of 2008.

BY:  GE Christenson

March and April 2013 may go down in history as the tipping point for the western financial system.

We have already seen:

  • Lehman Brothers and many other financial firms collapse.
  • $700 Billion in TARP funds arranged by banking insiders for banking insiders at the expense of US taxpayers.
  • Over $16 Trillion in bailouts, guarantees, swaps, and loans created by the Fed and given to various banks, nations, and other insiders.
  • MFGlobal took “segregated” customer funds, the exchange provided no compensation to customers, and yet no criminal indictments have been issued.
  • Global derivatives total $700 Trillion to well over $1,000 Trillion, depending on who is counting. Some are “toxic waste.”
  • Many European bailouts and “fixes.”
  • Spain, Italy, Slovenia, and perhaps France in trouble.
  • US official debt approaching $17 Trillion with unfunded liabilities many times larger.
  • The Federal Reserve creating $85 Billion per month (over $115,000,000 per hour) to support banks and the US government.

So what other disasters could occur? In a word, Cyprus!

  • Not because the EU and Cyprus took Russian money.
  • Not because several banks will close.
  • Not because some deposits will be confiscated and/or frozen.

In my opinion, the sign that a tipping point has occurred in the financial system is the real story:

  • The veil of banker honesty has been lifted. The EU/IMF/ECB will do whatever is necessary to support the banks, even if it means they will confiscate (tax, steal, bail-in) customer deposits.
  • Customer deposits are NOT assets held in the bank for safe-keeping, but are liabilities of the bank and are not guaranteed to be made whole.
  • Billions of dollars were removed prior to the Cyprus freeze, so insiders clearly knew in advance of the ordinary depositors (see below). There is no “level playing field” when billions of dollars/euros are in play.
  • According to Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and Euro Group President, this is “the template for any future bank bailouts.” In other words, your deposits are considerably less safe than you thought. Your bank could fail, and your deposits might be used to compensate for derivative losses or other losses that the bank incurred.
  • The FDIC in the US, as well as England, Canada, and New Zealand, has announced similar policies, agreements, and plans to confiscate deposits in the case of an emergency. Is this a sign that an emergency is not only possible but probable and imminent?
  • Confidence in the banking and financial system has been seriously damaged, perhaps irreversibly.

Following are a few quotes from respected commentators:

Jim Sinclair: If the fools that have attacked Cyprus persist then it is the start of an avalanche that will destroy confidence in fiat currency, the fractional reserve system and central banks. What are the central bankers terrified of? My answer is the mountain of old OTC derivative coming home to roost.” Link.

Tyler Durden: “With every passing day, it becomes clearer and clearer the Cyprus deposit confiscation “news” was the most unsurprising outcome for the nation’s financial system and was known by virtually everyone on the ground days and weeks in advance: first it was disclosed that Russians had been pulling their money, then it was suggested the president himself had made sure some €21 million of his family’s money was parked safely in London, then we showed a massive surge in Cyprus deposit outflows in February, and now the latest news is that a list of 132 companies and individuals has emerged who withdrew their €-denominated deposits in the two weeks from March 1 to March 15, among which the previously noted company Loutsios & Sons which is alleged to have ties with the current Cypriot president Anastasiadis.” Link.

Peter Cooper: “Depositors in the beleaguered Bank of Cyprus are now facing losses of 60 per cent on deposits over 100,000 euros as the Cyprus Government seems to have woken up to the fact that this is its last chance to steal money off these mainly foreign depositors. It’s an absolute travesty and a red letter day for European Union banks…

“Money in EU bank accounts is clearly now up for grabs by any government that recapitalizes its banking sector. Moreover, the Cyprus precedent is going to cause a run on the weaker banks that will make this sort of recapitalization inevitable. Standby for a systemic banking crisis in the EU…

“What the EU has done in Cyprus is the modern equivalent of the failure of the Credit Anstaldt in 1931 that brought on the Great Depression with thousands of banking failures around the world.” Link.

Jim Sinclair: “I believe Cyprus is the defining moment whereby the physical market for gold overtakes the paper market for gold as the arbiter of price. When that occurred in 1979 the price of gold began its move to seek its maximum valuation.” Link.

Julian DW Phillips: “When it was announced [in Cyprus] that both large and small depositors were to have a percentage of their deposits seized, it was not the amount that horrified the world but the discovery that you do not own your own bank deposits… Most investors worldwide are of the belief that when you deposit your money in a bank, it simply has safe-keeping of that money. The realization that you have lent the bank your money and are an “Unsecured Creditor” of the bank is an unpleasant revelation.” Link.

Michael Snyder: “What you are about to see absolutely amazed me when I first saw it. The Canadian government is actually proposing that what just happened in Cyprus should be used as a blueprint for future bank failures up in Canada.

The following comes from pages 144 and 145 of “Economic Action Plan 2013″ which you can find right here. Apparently the goal is to find a way to rescue “systemically important banks” without the use of taxpayer funds…”

“In addition, branches of the two largest banks in Cyprus were kept open in Moscow and London even after all of the banks in Cyprus itself were shut down. So wealthy Russians and wealthy Brits have been able to take all of their money out of those banks while the people of Cyprus have been unable to…”

“The global elite are fundamentally changing the game. From now on, no bank account on earth will ever be able to be considered “100% safe” again. This is going to create an atmosphere of fear and panic, and no financial system can operate normally when you destroy the confidence that people have in it.

Confidence is a funny thing – it can take decades to build, but it can be destroyed in a single moment.” Link.

Ellen Brown: “Confiscating the customer deposits in Cyprus banks, it seems, was not a one-off, desperate idea of a few Eurozone “troika” officials scrambling to salvage their balance sheets. A joint paper by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England dated December 10, 2012, shows that these plans have been long in the making; that they originated with the G20 Financial Stability Board in Basel, Switzerland (discussed earlier here); and that the result will be to deliver clear title to the banks of depositor funds.” Link.

Richard Russell: “I’ve been asked to name one future situation of which I’m most certain. My answer is this – I believe the surest situation (change) in America’s future is a decline, even a drastic decline, in our standard of living. We’ve spent it; we’ve spent what we didn’t have. And somewhere ahead, probably much sooner than we think, will come payback time. And it won’t be pretty.” Link.

Summary

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

How To Buy, Store and Sell Gold and Silver

By: GE Christenson

You want to buy silver and gold. There is much to consider!

safe

  • Physical metal or paper promises?
  • From which supplier will you buy it? Price is not the only consideration.
  • Where do you store it? Your sock drawer, a safe, insured and secure vault, or in another country?
  • How do you sell it and when?
  • IRS Rules

 

Physical, ETF, or Paper?

Do you want actual physical silver and gold that you can hold in your hand? If you do, then buy coins or bars and skip ahead.

If you want to buy and sell easily without taking delivery of actual metal, then perhaps you should invest in an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) for gold and silver. The fees are minimal; ETFs are convenient and good for frequent trading. The two most popular are GLD and SLV. They are also criticized by many analysts, so I encourage you to also consider PHYS, PSLV, GTU, and others.

If you want paper, then buy options or futures contracts and be careful. When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled – and most of us are merely grass in the world of futures trading.

You Want to Buy Physical Gold and Silver Coins and Bars. Good! Where?

There are many dealers who will sell over the internet and ship to your home or to a secure storage vault. Their prices will vary slightly and so will their terms for payment and delivery. See the partial list and brief comments at the end of this article to get started. There are many other fine dealers in addition to the few examples I have listed.

Storage

More important than where you buy is whether you will buy for delivery to your home, delivery to a secure domestic storage facility, or for delivery to a vault outside of the United States.

Your home – Convenient and close but vulnerable to fire and theft. Your sock drawer is not recommended – buy a safe, hide it, and tell very few.

Safe deposit box at local bank – Secure, less convenient, probably not insured, and vulnerable to a search warrant, court order, and banking shutdown. Use a local bank, not a branch of a huge mega-bank.

Secure storage in the USA – Very secure and safe but may not be close or convenient. Are you comfortable with such storage? If so, then this is an excellent choice. Choose a vault OUTSIDE the banking system.

International Storage – You can store in commercial vaults in London, Canada, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and other locations. The IRS MAY want to be told what you are storing and its value if you are an American citizen and storing internationally. See IRS Rules.

How Do you Sell Your Gold and Silver?

If you are buying for insurance against devaluing paper currencies, perhaps you intend to hold it for a long time or expect to will it to your family. In either case, don’t sell it.

If your gold and silver coins are in your possession, then you can sell via the internet or take them to a local coin store. Most companies that will sell to you via the Internet or a phone call will also buy back at a slight discount to sales price (they have to sell at a mark-up to stay in business). You can also sell on eBay or to private individuals. There probably will be tax implications, so consult with your tax advisor.

When to Sell Gold and Silver?

Again, there is no right answer for everyone. Some will argue that gold and silver are essential insurance against unbacked paper currencies and so should never be sold. Investors may want to hold until they see some large price, say $150 silver and $4,000 gold. Others wish to trade in and out, buying low and selling high. Your choice will help determine if you want paper silver, an ETF, coins, or bars, stored domestically or offshore. It is easy to sell paper or an ETF. It may be less convenient to sell coins and bars that you have stored in a safe deposit box. It probably will be easy to sell gold stored in Switzerland.

Jim Sinclair, legendary gold trader and investor, says buy “fish lines” and sell “rhino horns.” What he means is that markets, especially gold and silver markets, often move too far, too fast, both up and down. The down moves – the fish lines – scare out leveraged speculators and “weak hands” and usually indicate good buy points for long-term investors. When leveraged speculators, hot money, and the public drive the market higher in a parabolic spike upward, the chart looks like a rhino horn, and that often indicates a good time to sell. There will be many more signals, but most of us are overwhelmed by greed and fear, especially panic, and we often miss the signals. In 1929 the “signal” was to sell when shoeshine boys were giving stock tips. Something similar will happen at the next panic high in gold and silver, but that may be years away.

IRS Rules

The IRS has instituted new rules for United States taxpayers. We are now required to report holdings of foreign assets on form 8938 (Statement of Specified Foreign Financial Assets) and form TD F 90-22.1. Consult with your tax attorney and financial advisor, but the simple interpretation is this:

If you own financial assets in another country worth more than certain amounts, usually you must report these assets on form 8938 with your federal tax return and on form TD F 90-22.1 due June 30 of each year. It is wise to comply with IRS requirements as the penalties can be severe. There may be exceptions that your professional advisor can discuss, but these relatively new requirements may influence your choice of investments and their storage locations.

Alphabetical (partial) list of gold and silver vendors with brief comments on each.

Please do your own research before making a purchase.

APMEX – Large gold and silver bullion and coins dealer operating out of Oklahoma. They maintain a sizeable inventory and will buy and sell online in several currencies with reasonable commissions. Apmex will “lock-in” a purchase price online and accept a personal check in payment (with delayed delivery). If you wish, they will also arrange for secure storage with a subsidiary company and ship directly to that insured storage facility. Apmex will assist with the purchase of silver and gold for investment in your qualified IRA.

Bullion Vault – Secure insured vault storage in London, Zurich, and New York for both gold and silver. Purchases can be arranged quickly and online in different currencies with low costs for storage and insurance. It is easy to sell or take delivery of your metals.

Global Gold – Secure insured vault storage in Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore for both gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Purchases can be arranged quickly and online with low costs for storage and insurance. It is easy to sell or take delivery of your metals. Ownership is physical and fully allocated.

GoldMoney – Secure insured storage in the UK, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Canada, and Singapore for both gold and silver. Purchases can be arranged quickly and online in different currencies with low costs for storage and insurance. It is easy to sell or take delivery of your metals.

GoldSilver.com – Large gold and silver coin and bullion dealer operating out of California. They maintain a sizeable inventory and will buy and sell online with reasonable commissions. GoldSilver.com will arrange storage in Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada, or the USA. You can easily sell your gold and silver holdings or take delivery. They also will assist with purchasing gold and silver coins and bullion for your retirement accounts. If you have time, watch their instructional videos.

Hard Assets Alliance – This is a relatively new company that attempts to meet many needs including convenient gold and silver purchases with secure insured and allocated storage for gold and silver. Silver can be stored in the US but currently only gold can be stored offshore in several countries. Their downloadable information booklet states:

Exempt from US reporting requirements. As a domestic institution, GBI’s US customers are exempt from both the FBAR and Form 8938 filing requirements if offshore metal storage is elected.”

In some circumstances, this exemption from US reporting requirements may be important in your decision-making process.

Lear Capital – Large gold and silver coin and bullion dealer operating out of California. They maintain a sizeable inventory and will buy and sell online with reasonable commissions. Lear Capital will assist with purchasing gold and silver coins and bullion for IRA and 401k retirement accounts.

Liberty Gold and Silver – A smaller gold, silver, and platinum coin and bullion dealer operating out of Oregon. Liberty Gold and Silver will assist with purchasing gold and silver coins and bullion for IRA accounts and can arrange secure allocated storage in the USA, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, and Singapore.

Perth Mint – Located in Australia, the Perth Mint has been in business for over 100 years and is owned by the Government of Western Australia. The mint refines and produces a variety of products, special coins, and commemoratives in gold, silver, and platinum. The Mint receives over 70,000 visitors each year. You can purchase coins and bullion for delivery and arrange for allocated or pooled storage of your metals.

SilverSaver – Secure insured storage in the USA for gold and silver. You can make convenient periodic purchases by direct withdrawal from your checking account. This allows for a signup and forget “dollar-cost averaging” purchase plan. You can also take delivery of your gold and silver or easily sell it back to SilverSaver.

The Ultimate Gold Trust – Gold can be purchased and held in Switzerland. This storage solution is recommended by Julian D. W. Phillips, a frequent commentator on gold and gold storage options. Read his latest article on the safety of offshore storage.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In February

Sales of both the American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins soared in February compared to the previous year.

According to the U.S. Mint, sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin totaled 80,500 ounces in February, up 283% from comparable sales of 21,000 ounces during February 2012.  During January, the Mint sold 150,000 ounces of the gold bullion coins compared to 127,000 ounces during January 2012.  January gold bullion sales were the six largest on record and the most since July 2010 when the Mint sold 151,500 ounces.

Total 2013 sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin through February are up 56% over the comparable period for last year.  Year to date, the U.S. Mint has sold 230,500 ounces of gold bullion coins compared to a total of 148,000 ounces during the first two months of 2012.

The American Eagle gold bullion coin is available in one ounce, one-half ounce, one quarter ounce and one-tenth ounce versions.   The vast majority of gold bullion coins are purchased as one ounce coins as can be seen from the February sales breakdown listed below.

FEB 2013 GOLD BULLION SALES
OUNCES # COINS
ONE 68,000 68,000
HALF 2,500 5,000
QUARTER 3,000 12,000
TENTH 7,000 70,000
80,500 155,000

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coin also remained robust after last month’s record shattering sales total.  During January, the U.S. Mint sold 7,498,000 silver bullion coins as public demand for physical silver coin soared.  The huge demand for the American Eagle silver coins forced the U.S. Mint to suspend sales twice as they sought to ramp up production to meet demand.  Ever since the financial crisis and the subsequent open ended money printing operations by the Federal Reserve, demand for physical silver has continued strong.   Prior to 2008, total annual sales of the silver bullion coins averaged only around 9.5 million coins.  During 2012, the U.S. Mint sold 33,742,500 silver bullion coins.

During February, the U.S. Mint reported that 3,368,500 American Eagle silver bullion coins were sold, an increase of 126% over sales of 1,490,000 ounces during February 2012.  Year to date sales of the silver bullion coins through February total 10,866,500, up by 43% over the comparable two month period during 2012 when 7,597,000 silver bullion coins were sold.

Long term investors are taking advantage of temporary price weakness in precious metals to add to positions (see APMEX Reports Sales Spike).   Virtually every major central bank in the world is now engaged in open ended money printing operations and blatant attempts to competitively devalue their currencies.  The public is not stupid and continued demand for physical gold and silver proves that gold and silver are becoming the default store of value.

Both the American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins are sold to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of the precious metals and a markup by the Mint.  The public is not allowed to purchase bullion coins directly from the Mint but are allowed to buy numismatic versions of the coins.  The gold and silver bullion coins are sold by the authorized purchasers to the public, other bullion dealers and coin dealers.  The rationale for the Mint’s use of authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

The Fundamental Reasons For Owning Gold and Silver Are Stronger Than Ever

One of the best methods for protecting wealth against a constantly depreciating paper currency is to own precious metals.

The bull case for precious metals remains intact as central bankers worldwide have become the lenders of last resort for nations that have exhausted their borrowing capacities.  Very little has changed since 2008 when the world financial system stood at the abyss of collapse.  Unsustainable debt levels continue to increase even as the capacity to service the debt diminishes.

As discussed in Why There is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices, the U.S. has reached a tipping point on the road to insolvency. Despite trillions in stimulus spending, both job creation and economic growth have been extremely weak and are likely to remain so.

Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, authors of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, offer comprehensive statistical evidence of the dangers of excessive public debt.  As documented in their book, once public sector debt reaches 90% (which the U.S. is very close to) a country has only three options, all of them bad.

According to Rogoff and Reinhart, the only way out for overleveraged nations is a restructuring through default, austerity or allowing inflation to increase while repressing interest rates at a very low level.

Default is the most drastic and least likely remedy to be used by a country such as the United States which issues its own currency and can create an unlimited number of dollars to service debt payments.

Austerity, the second option, is a highly unlikely scenario under our current democratic system.  Any politician voting for austerity measures would quickly be voted out of office and replaced by another politician promising continued funding of the social welfare state.  Since over half the country’s population currently depends on entitlement programs to survive, the power of the majority vote guarantees that austerity will not  become a policy for putting the country back on a fiscally sound economic path.  The inability to reduce unsustainable spending  or impose confiscatory rates of taxation leaves the government with one bad option – print more money.

The United States is currently locked into policy options that guarantee a long term rise in gold and silver prices.  The current weakness in precious metals represents a buying opportunity for those seeking to accumulate and protect their wealth over the long term.

APMEX Reports Sales Spike on eBay Bullion Center

Last  Wednesday, with New York gold down over $40 per ounce, even long time gold bulls were advising caution before committing to further investment.  Some precious metals dealers reported a flood of panic selling by anxious investors who were unloading physical coin and bar.

With everyone fearful of lower prices, exactly who was buying all that gold and silver from panicked investors?

Michael Haynes, CEO of APMEX, one of the countries largest precious metals dealers, said “As gold and silver prices continue to drop, long-term investors immediately reacted to the market movement. Recognizing that the precious metals were on sale and at a discount relative to the expected future values, buyers of physical bullion increased purchasing at the APMEX Bullion Center on eBay.”

Michael Haynes explained further.

“This was the second largest selling day for the APMEX Bullion Center on eBay since inception about five months ago, beating the next highest selling day by more than 30%. As Gold and Silver prices fell, heavily influenced by the reaction of day traders to the minutes from the recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, physical sales of both metals skyrocketed. Buyers of physical Gold and Silver have a moderate to long term view and concluded that with the price movements, the precious metals were on sale and at a discount relative to the expected future values. These investors in physical Gold and Silver apparently see the long term issues faced by the U.S. economy and seek some asset allocation into the non-correlated asset class of precious metals to protect and hedge their investments in paper assets like Stocks and Bonds.”

According to APMEX, the top sellers on the Bullion Center are the 1 oz Silver American Eagle, the 1 oz Gold American Eagle, the 5 gram Statue of Liberty Credit Suisse Gold Bar and the 100 oz Royal Canadian Mint Silver Bar.

Every bull market has corrections which offer long term investors the opportunity to add to positions at bargain prices.  The high volume of gold and silver purchases on the eBay Bullion Center indicates that mainstream buyers remain committed to precious metals as a method of wealth preservation.

Hedge Funds Record Short Gold Positions Is A Bullish Contrary Indicator

The deluge of bearish articles on gold continues with a Wall Street Journal article entitled “Money Managers Shorting Gold In Record Numbers.”

Hedge funds and other investment managers held a record number of bets on lower gold prices on the main U.S. gold exchange, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Managers tracked by the commodity regulator boosted their bets on lower Comex-traded gold futures and options by 33%, to 65,617 contracts, during the week ended Tuesday. That is the most in weekly CFTC data going back to June 2006.

The tone of the Journal article suggests that gold investors should be worried about bearish hedge fund positions.  However, when you look a little deeper into this situation, it’s actually another bullish contrary indicator for gold and here’s why – hedge funds have put up miserable performance numbers not just last year, but for the past decade.

According to Business Insider, an investor in a hedge fund would have been better off in a simple index fund.

The past year has been another mediocre one for hedge funds. The HFRX, a widely used measure of industry returns, is up by just 3%, compared with an 18% rise in the S&P 500 share index. Although it might be possible to shrug off one year’s underperformance, the hedgies’ problems run much deeper.

The S&P 500 has now outperformed its hedge-fund rival for ten straight years, with the exception of 2008 when both fell sharply. A simple-minded investment portfolio–60% of it in shares and the rest in sovereign bonds–has delivered returns of more than 90% over the past decade, compared with a meagre 17% after fees for hedge funds (see chart). As a group, the supposed sorcerers of the financial world have returned less than inflation. Gallingly, the profits passed on to their investors are almost certainly lower than the fees creamed off by the managers themselves.

Now that we have the facts on hedge fund performance, we realize that what appears to be a slanted bearish article on gold is in reality another contrary bullish indicator for future gold price performance (also see Financial Advisors Bearish On Gold Represents Buy Signal).