April 10, 2026

As World’s Most Predicted Financial Crisis Approaches Precious Metals Move Higher

July 23, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Precious metals gained across the board for the third week in a row.  Silver and palladium were the top performers this week with each advancing almost 4%.

July has seen an explosive move in the precious metals group as worries intensify about the twin debt crises in Europe and the U.S.  In both cases, governments and central banks are avoiding the tough choices that must be made when debt levels reach unsustainable amounts.  Common sense dictates that over leveraged borrowers with insufficient income to service debt must eventually default, or gradually reduce the debt through a combination of austerity measures and income growth.

Common sense, however, is a trait sorely lacking in politicians.  Nor does preaching austerity to your constituents enhance the odds of being re-elected.  The preferred solution, which has been employed since the 1980’s, is to add more debt and let the future take care of itself.  What’s different this time is the growing realization that at some point the compounding of debt becomes unsustainable, enslaving future generations and inhibiting economic growth.

The widely discussed study by Rogoff and Reinhart definitively documents that when public sector debt to GDP approaches the 90% level, economic growth slows dramatically – (see This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly).  Since most of the developed world economies are already at or above the 90% debt to GDP ratio, the prognosis for future economic growth to gradually reduce debt levels becomes a tenuous prospect.

Despite the obvious risks of a growing debt burden, a significant number of the Washington elite insist that the debt limit be raised by another $2.5 trillion which would represent a doubling of the national debt in a little over five years.

Raising the debt limit, which became a routine ritual in past years, has suddenly morphed into a potential default situation as a growing number of responsible political leaders refuse to rubber stamp another massive increase in public borrowing.  As debt limit negotiations broke down today, the odds of a potential default by the United States became a distinct possibility.

Will a temporary default become a seismic event?  Who knows, but if gold had advanced by one dollar per ounce for each time I’ve seen an article predicting financial Armageddon, if the debt limit was not raised, gold would be well over $4,000 per ounce.   If the U.S. does “default”, it will not be the end of the world.  In the best case scenario, a brush with default may convince more members of our EZ spending Congress to come around to the financial common sense of men such as Ron Paul.

http://youtu.be/sEP8cQF-QC4

Summary of Ron Paul’s comments to Congress:

  • Countries that are as indebted as the U.S. always default.
  • The real increase in the debt this year, counting entitlements, is $5 trillion.
  • In the past 3 years, the dollar has been devalued by 50% against gold.
  • Default will be through inflation.

Gold advanced by $15 on the week and is up $119 since July 1st.  Silver advanced by $1.50 on the week and has gained $5.82 since July 1st.

Platinum and palladium both advanced on the week by $33 and $30 respectively.  Platinum has gained $85 and palladium $57 since the first of the month.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,602.00 +$15.00 +0.95%
Silver $39.67 +$1.50 +3.93%
Platinum $1,793.00 +$33.00 +1.88%
Palladium $807.00 +$30.00 +3.86%
Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, US Debt Crisis, Weekly Recap Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Increase As Precious Metals Rally

July 21, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Holdings of the SPDR  Gold Shares Trust (GLD) gained 20.60 tonnes on the week after increasing by 19.60 tonnes in the previous week.

Gold has been in a steady uptrend during July as the debt crises in Europe and the United States continue to expand.  As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold has gained $103 since July lst.  Gold has gained $197.50 per ounce since the first of the year when the price was $1,388.50.

Since July lst, total gold holdings of the GLD have increased by 40.21 tonnes and the value of the trust has increased by $6 billion to $63.5 billion.  At July 20, the Gold Trust held 40.1 million ounces of gold bullion, up from 38.8 million ounces on the lst of July.

Shares of the GLD hit an all time high this week along with the price of gold.

 

GLD - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) increased its holdings by 169.76 on the week after a gain of 101.55 tonnes in the previous week.   Silver holdings of the trust since the beginning of the year have declined by 1,178.86 tonnes when the Trust held 10,921.57 tonnes.  The record holdings of the SLV occurred on April 25th when the Trust held 11,390.06 tonnes.

Silver has surged in price along with gold since the beginning of July.  Based on the closing London PM Fix Price, silver has increased from $33.85 on July 1st to $38.59 at the July 20th close, for a gain of $4.74 or 14.0%.

The SLV Trust currently holds 315.2 million ounces of silver valued at $12.2 billion.  As of July 20th, the net asset value of the Trust was $37.61 according to the Trust’s website.  The price of the SLV closed on July 20th at $39.12 or a 4% premium to the Trust’s net asset value.  The current premium of the SLV to the Trust’s net asset value is higher than usual, reflecting investor demand for the SLV.  The all time high premium on the SLV to the underlying net assets of the Trust occurred on April 27, 2011 at 6.3%.

iShares Premium/Discount - courtesy us.ishares.com

Precious metals have advanced strongly after suggestions by the Federal Reserve that it might initiate another round of quantitative easing if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.  Meanwhile, the debt crisis in Europe continues to expand with many believing that the only “solution” is to imitate the U.S. Central Bank and print money.

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

July 20-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,246.01 +20.60 -34.70
SLV 9,803.71 +169.76 -1,117.86

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , ,

Debt Limit Fiasco Could Push Gold To $2,000

July 20, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Gold has advanced almost nonstop since the beginning of July.  As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold has advanced in 10 out of the 14 trading days since July 1st, gaining $118.  London gold closed today at $1,586.00 but soared in late New York trading to end the day at $1,602.90.

Gold has decisively broken out of the two month trading range it has been in since early May at the $1,500 level.  All the fundamental factors driving gold higher continue to strengthen.  The fragility of the paper financial system has been exposed.  Efforts by politicians to solve the debt crisis are only serving to hasten the collapse of the system they are trying to preserve.

The debt ceiling problem in Washington continues to fester as politicians dither and delay.  With every top official in Washington warning of financial Armageddon if the debt ceiling is not raised, the betting is that a compromise to increase the debt ceiling before August 2nd will be reached.  Whatever compromise is reached is likely to be a meaningless “agreement to disagree later” as the debt ceiling is raised but the hard choice of where to cut spending is postponed.  If gold sells off in a knee jerk reaction to Washington’s “solution” to the debt crisis, it will provide another buying opportunity for gold investors.

A solution to the nation’s spiraling debt crisis no longer seems possible.  Neither political party has the will nor the desire to realistically address the basic problem of excessive deficit spending.  There is no upside for those with the courage to call for the austerity measures needed to put the Nation on the path towards sound financial footing.  A majority of Americans favor increasing the debt limit and that majority naturally consists of those who derive all or most of their income from government payments.  Politicians get the message – keep the payments coming no matter what or we will vote you out of office.  The strategy of dealing with too much debt will again be to increase debt.

With debt compounding at rates far in excess of the country’s income gains and with taxes already at punitively high levels, the only option left for servicing the debt is to debase the currency and repay creditors with devalued dollars (see Ron Paul Says US Is Already Defaulting on the Debt).

As long as Washington can keep selling its debt and as long as Ben Bernanke is there to purchase government debt with freshly printed money, the spending and deficits will continue until the entire financial system collapses.  This is what the gold market recognizes and that is why there is  no effective limit on the upside to gold prices.

A brief pause at the $1,600 level should soon be followed by an even stronger advance.  Since 2009, every consolidation in the gold market has been followed by strong advances that lifted gold by hundreds of dollars per ounce.   Gold could quickly get to the $2,000 range as the current rally progresses, given the rapidly deteriorating condition of the global financial system.

 

Gold - Courtesy stockcharts.com

In the final analysis, it doesn’t even matter what the imperial leaders in Washington decide to do – we are already beyond the tipping point – the only matter of consequence is how to prepare for the inevitable collapse of the world fiat monetary system.

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Gold Stocks, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , , ,

Gold and Silver Rocket Higher As Bernanke Oils Up The Printing Presses

July 15, 2011 by 1 Comment

The precious metals group continued higher this week, with standout performances by gold and silver.

As politicians continue to engage in reprehensible scare tactics in order to increase the debt limit by another $2.5 trillion, it has become increasing clear that the policies of more debt and dollar debasement will continue.  In an interview today, Ron Paul said that he expects “nothing will change” and that the U.S. is already defaulting on the debt via the devaluation of the dollar.

Gold and silver, which had already been strongly advancing in the prior week, soared after Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before Congress on Wednesday.   Mere days after the end of QE2, Bernanke said that he stands ready to rescue the American economy with more accommodative monetary measures.   Although the exact mechanism by which future monetary easing  will be deployed remains to be seen, the end result will be the further debasement of the U.S. dollar.

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold hit new highs, soaring by $45.50 on the week, putting its two week gain at $104.00 per ounce.  Gold prices continued higher in New York trading with gold closing at $1,594.30, up another $7.30.

Gold has become the currency of last resort as it becomes clear that money printing is the only option left to prevent massive sovereign debt defaults by world governments.   Accordingly, there is really no upside limit for gold and silver prices.   Legendary trader Jim Sinclair told King World News that the stage has been set for gold to move up to $12,000 per ounce.

Silver has been the standout performer in the precious metals group.  After basing in the mid 30’s range after the May correction, silver has exploded upwards.

 

Silver - courtesy kitco.com

After rallying by over 7% last week, silver tacked on another 5% this week.  As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price of $38.17, silver has advanced by $4.32 or 12.8% over the past two weeks.   After the close in London, silver continued to gain in New York trading, closing at $39.37.

Silver is in a long term super cycle advance backed by fundamentals that guarantee higher prices. The accelerating exodus from paper money will quickly push silver prices to new highs – see For Silver , This Time Is Different.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,587.00 +$45.50 +2.95%
Silver $38.17 +$1.89 +5.21%
Platinum $1,760.00 +$20.00 +1.15%
Palladium $777.00 +$1.00 +0.13%

Platinum advanced by $20 on the week after a $32 dollar advance in the previous week.  Palladium ended essentially unchanged on the week after an advance of $26 last week.

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, Weekly Recap Tagged With: , , , , ,

Ron Paul – The U.S. Is Already Defaulting On The Debt

July 15, 2011 by 1 Comment

Ron Paul, the embodiment of common sense and classic American values, spoke today about the U.S. debt crisis in an interview on The Daily Ticker.

Rep. Paul made the point that few people see any real value in U.S. government debt securities and are holding them only as a temporary place to keep their money.  “That’s why people are going to gold as a reserve and a place to put their money”.

Ron Paul said that Washington does not understand how dangerous a situation the Country is in and that “nothing will change”.  Default on the debt would be “a big deal” and Paul thinks that Congress will raise the debt limit and that all payments on U.S. debt will made.

Ron Paul noted, however, that governments like our “always default, the default is we pay our debts with money with less value.  Bernanke is actually working very hard at this, he wants the price inflation to go up so that the dollar goes down in value.  So we get to the point in two years or so that you can take the national debt of $14 trillion and turn it into $7 trillion or real value.  They want the dollar devalued – that’s how countries default.  So the default is ongoing and that is very dangerous…”.

Meanwhile, President Obama said “America is stressed out”.  Yes, Mr. Obama, the country is stressed out – by failed economic policies propagated by the elite political class and special interest groups in Washington who serve Wall Street and the Big Banks rather than the American public.

America has reached the tipping point from policies that have given us a crash in housing values, no job gains over the past decade, zero return on our savings, higher inflation, dollar debasement and a decline in real incomes.   Middle class households who have not allocated a substantial portion of their savings to gold or silver have seen their wealth decimated.

In a rare display of candor, Treasury Secretary Geithner admitted in an interview this week that  “It’s going to feel very hard, harder than anything they’ve experienced in their lifetime now, for a long time to come.”  Now if only the politicians would be honest with us,we might be able to establish a better plan for a path to recovery other than unlimited money printing.

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, US Debt Crisis Tagged With: , , , ,

“Gold Is Not Money” – Ron Paul Shreds Bernanke

July 14, 2011 by 3 Comments

Ben Bernanke’s head must have been spinning after Ron Paul’s rapid fire series of questions on gold at a hearing by the House Financial Services Committee.

Ron Paul’s confrontational and decisive questioning left the former Princeton professor looking uncomfortable and befuddled.

Ron Paul started off by noting that instead of spending $5.1 trillion bailing out banks and enriching corporations with no discernible economic benefit, the Fed could have simply given each and every American $17,000.  Ron Paul also suggested that the huge amount of money injected into the economy by the Fed has caused a real inflation rate of about 9%, far above the government inflation statistics.

Bernanke, obviously annoyed with Paul’s remarks started to elaborate on why the Fed was actually a “profit center” for the government, but was quickly cut off by Ron Paul who noted that he had only five minutes of allocated time to ask questions.

Ron Paul then followed up with a series of devastating questions that left the Chief Money Printer reeling.

Paul:  “When you wake up in the morning do you care about the price of gold?”

Bernanke:  “I pay attention to the price of gold.  I think it reflects a lot of things. It reflects global uncertainties. I think the reason people hold gold is as protection against what we call tail risks, really, really bad outcomes. And to the extent that the last few years have made people more worried about the potential of a major crisis they have gold as a protection.”  (Editor’s note: Gold has been steadily rising for the past ten years.)

Paul: “Do you think gold is money?”

Bernanke: (after a long awkward pause) “No, it’s not money, it’s a precious metal”.

Paul:  “So even if it’s been money for the past 6,000 years, somebody reversed that, eliminated that economic law?”

Bernanke:  ”It’s an asset.  Would you say Treasury bills are money? I don’t think they’re money either but they’re a financial asset.”

Paul:  “Why do central banks hold it?”

Bernanke:  “Well it’s a form of reserve”.

Paul:  “Why don’t they hold diamonds?”

Bernanke: “Well it’s tradition, long term tradition”.

It’s unfortunate that Ron Paul was only allowed to question the Fed Chief for five minutes.  In a couple of hours, Ron Paul would have shredded the foundations of the dollar’s value.  In an interview with thestreet.com, Ron Paul says “Gold, if you pick up a coin minted 6,000 years ago, you’d still have your money. If you pick up a piece of paper printed a year ago, it might be worth half its value. So history is on my side of the argument.”  Gold as money has retained its value over the millennia – does anyone really expect any modern currency to retain value over the long term?

In Bernanke’s world he is right – gold is not money.   All contemporary monetary systems are now based on fiat money with no intrinsic value other than the full faith and credit of the government issuer.  Unfortunately, the world’s short term experiment with a fiat money system seems to be swirling towards financial disaster in Europe as nation after nation totters at the edge of default.

The real disaster is that the hoax of fiat currency has been very effectively promoted by Bernanke, Governments and Central Banks.  The middle class citizens of most countries still hold the unshakeable, religious conviction that their paper money will retain its value because it is backed by an all powerful government that can protect their bank savings, pension plans, etc.  If this profound belief in paper money did not exist, gold would be thousands of dollars higher as currency holders of insolvent countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain desperately lined up to buy gold.

As the looming financial crisis explodes, bank depositors will discover that a bankrupt nation cannot protect their savings.  It will be too late for many as bank holidays and the financial collapse of financial institutions prevent depositors from accessing their money.  Middle class savers will be financially destroyed.  If depositors eventually get paid back in printed paper money, it will be worth a fraction of its original value.

Bernanke can say that gold is not money but time will prove him wrong.

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Increase As Precious Metals Explode Higher

July 13, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) showed a gain in holdings of 101.55 tonnes on the week after declining by a modest 48.21 tonnes in the previous week.  A decline from record holdings of 11,390.06 tonnes on April 25th paralleled the sell off in the silver market that occurred in early May.  Since mid June, holding of the SLV have stabilized in the range of 9,500 to 9,600 tonnes.

Silver has surged in price since the lst of July when silver closed at $33.85.  Today’s closing New York price of $38.33 gives silver a gain of $4.48 or 13.2% through July 13th.  The price of silver surged today after Fed Chairman Bernanke, mere days after the end of QE2, announced that he was ready to “come to the rescue” of the American financial system again with another round of quantitative easing.   Bernanke’s continued policy of dollar debasement may not do much to revive the economy, but it is certain to send gold and silver prices to all time highs.

The SLV Trust now holds 309.7 million ounces of silver valued at $11.4 billion dollars.  The all time high in the value of silver holdings by the Trust occurred on April 28th at $17.3 billion.

After basing in the $35 range since early May, the SLV looks ready to begin challenging its all time high. The SLV closed today at $37.23 up $2.03.

 

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

July 13-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,225.41 +19.60 -55.30
SLV 9,633.95 +101.55 -1,287.62

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) gained 19.60 tonnes last week after small drops in the previous two weeks.  The price of gold has retained virtually all of its price gains this year even as sell offs hit stocks, commodities and other precious metals.  Gold opened the year at $1,388.50 and has steady increased in value.

As it became clear that the deficit talks in Washington would resolve nothing and with easy Ben Bernanke ready to put the printing presses into overdrive, the price of gold soared to all time highs.  The continuing debt crisis in Europe will only get worse, eventually forcing the European Central Bank to engage in its own money printing operations on a massive scale.

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold opened the month at $1483.00 and closed in New York trading today at $1,583.60 for a gain of $100.60 or 6.8%.  In later trading in Asian markets, gold continued to soar, climbing another $6.10.  James Turk, a highly respected analyst with a superb track record is forecasting a gold price of between $5,000 and $8,000 before 2015.  Given the pace at which debt trapped countries are tipping over, I suspect that those price targets may be reached much sooner.

The GLD currently holds 39.4 million ounces of gold valued at $62.2 billion.

 

Gold - Courtesy stockcharts.com

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , ,

Precious Metals Advance Strongly On Week

July 9, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Precious metals roared back this week after consolidating in the previous week.

Gold gained $58.50 on the week closing at $1,541.50.  As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold reached a closing high this year of $1,552.50 on June 22nd and has stubbornly refused to decline.  Gold’s technical position looks excellent and a breakout above June’s high should set the stage for the next major advance.

Meanwhile, depending on how you look at it, the comedy or tragedy unfolding in Europe continues as insolvent nations line up for handouts.  The credit rating agencies are falling over each other in a race to downgrade the debt of country after country, adding Portugal’s debt this week to the status of junk paper.  Quite a difference from how they bestowed  A+ credit ratings on every piece of toxic mortgage paper produced by the banks prior to the financial crisis.

As Europe keeps center stage on the debt crisis, attention has been diverted from some other looming train wrecks, including Japan, the world’s third largest economy.   From a debt standpoint, Japan is in solid first place for the highest ratio of debt to GDP of almost 250%.  Can Europe forestall a debt crisis by piling up even more debt like the Japanese?  Who knows, the story is still unfolding, but the one certainty is that not only Europe, but the entire world is moving inexorably to a major financial crisis as debt burdens reach the level where massive defaults become the only option.

Investors in gold, meanwhile, can take comfort in the fact that gold has no credit risk.

Silver rebounded strongly this week, closing at $36.28, up over 7% on the week.  Prior to this week’s rally, silver had declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping by $4.10 per ounce.

Platinum rally strongly, climbing $32 to $1,740, after a $12 advance in the previous week.

Palladium jumped $26 or 3.5% on the week to $776, continuing last week’s rally of $11.

 

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,541.50 +58.50 +3.94%
Silver $36.28 +2.43 +7.18%
Platinum $1,740.00 +32.00 +1.87%
Palladium $776.00 +26.00 +3.47%

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, palladium, Platinum, Silver, Weekly Recap Tagged With: , , , ,

Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Decline On Week While Europe’s Debt Crisis Expands

July 7, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) showed a decline in holdings of 48.21 tonnes from the previous week, after rising by 21.23 tonnes in the previous week.   The net outflow of the SLV since the start of the year now totals 1,389.17 tonnes.

Silver opened the year at $30.67 per ounce and closed at $35.38 on July 6th. Despite the fact that silver has gained 15.4% since the start of the year, SLV holdings have declined by 12.7%.  Although increases or decreases in iShares silver holdings can be a guide to silver demand, physical holdings of the SLV do not correlate exactly with the price movements on the underlying metal.  This is due to the complex structure of the SLV which allows authorized participants to create or redeem shares in the SLV (see How Wall Street Made Profits On Silver ETF As Small Investors Sold).

There was, however, a close correlation between holdings of the SLV and the price of silver in late April.  As silver prices surged to a high of $48.70 on April 28th, holdings of the iShares Silver Trust hit an all time high of 11,390.06 tonnes on April 25th.

The iShares Silver Trust currently holds 306.5 million ounces of silver valued at $10.84 billion.  The all time high value of silver holdings by the SLV was reached on April 28th when the Trust held silver valued at $17.3 billion.

The SLV moved up on the week and is basing in the mid 30’s range.

 

SLV - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) declined slightly on the week by 2.42 tonnes after a small decline in the previous week of .91 tonnes.  The decline in GLD gold holdings since the beginning of the year totals 74.91 tonnes. The price of gold has increased 10% from $1388.50 at the beginning of the year to yesterday’s closing price of $1527.25.

The GLD currently holds 38.8 million ounces of gold valued at $59.2 billion.

Gold moved up $32.25 this week after dipping below $1,500 last week.  As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gold closed on Wednesday at $1527.25.  Gold has refused to give up its gains this year as distrust of paper money continues to justifiably expand.  The inevitable default by multiple member states of the European Union will require massive monetary support for insolvent banks holding trillions of dollars of sovereign junk debt.   The European Central Bank is desperately trying to maintain the facade of a successful debt restructuring by issuing more loans to insolvent nations.

Bloomberg this week discusses the looming debt crisis in Italy which has over 2 trillion in Euro denominated debt.

Italy, though, has close to 2 trillion euros in debt outstanding. It’s inconceivable that Germany or the IMF could provide a rescue to protect its creditors. Such a package would have to involve loans and guarantees of at least 500 billion, and possibly 1 trillion, euros to impress the markets. This would be a significant fraction of Germany’s gross domestic product of about 2.5 trillion euros. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 80 percent, Germany’s ability to take on new debt is limited.

The Netherlands, Finland and Austria, combined with Germany, have a GDP of about 3.5 trillion euros. France adds 2 trillion more, but its debt, already 85 percent of output, is expected to grow over the next several years.

It all adds up to one sobering fact: Europe does not have enough fiscal firepower to handle an Italian crisis — at least in such a way as to protect creditors completely. Beyond the difficult numbers, why would Germany or other EU countries lend to Italy, particularly when its politicians show no sign of coming to grips with their new reality?

The slow motion collapse of overly indebted countries in Europe is picking up speed.  Rising gold prices reflect the coming financial crisis which equity and debt markets have not yet fully discounted.  Expect to see gold prices soar as the debt crisis moves into high gear.

 

GOLD - COURTESY KITCO.COM

GLD and SLV Holdings (metric tonnes)

July 6-2011 Weekly Change YTD Change
GLD 1,205.81 -2.42 -74.91
SLV 9,532.40 -48.21 -1,389.17

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Silver, Statistics Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Gold Resource Asks Why Short Positions Soared Prior To Negative Barron’s Article

July 6, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The latest edition of Barron’s published an extremely negative article on Gold Resource Corp.  Barron’s raised questions about the gold miner’s reserves, stock sales by company insiders, mine production delays, gold production below targeted results and the use of stock dividends to “promote” Gold Resource’s stock price.

In response to the Barron’s article, Gold Resource issued a press release disputing all of the Barron’s allegations.  In addition, Gold Resource also raised serious questions about the massive increase in short positions prior to the publication of the negative Barron’s article.

By way of background, Mr. Santoli contacted the Company on May 18, 2011 which was just after the short interest in the Company’s common stock jumped by 1,585,906 shares to its largest short position of 2,235,554, an increase of 41%, according to the Amex May 2011 short interest report. As Mr. Santoli pointed out in his article, the short position has continued to increase substantially since that time to approximately 3.4 million shares, according to the latest NYSE report.  However, one thing Mr. Santoli failed to mention in his article is that he was in direct contact with investors holding short positions during the time he was preparing his article.  While we can only speculate about his motivations while creating this article and the reason why the short position increased significantly during this time period, we are going to focus our energy on correcting a few of Mr. Santoli’s incorrect factual assertions.

As  previously discussed, one week prior to the publication of the Barron’s article, the trading volume in Gold Resource exploded to  7.7 times the daily average volume with the stock down about 5%.  The massive increase in short positions prior to the publication of Barron’s article appears to be more than a coincidence.  Short sellers appeared to know in advance that a negative article on Gold Resource was due to be published and dramatically increased short positions.

The shorts profited handsomely as the stock plunged in the first day of trading after the Barron’s article was published.  After trading as low as $20.55, GORO closed at $22.63, down $1.47.  Shareholders of Gold Resource certainly deserve more information on the circumstances relating to the massive short position in Gold Resource stock and hopefully the Company will pursue this matter further.

The Gold Resource press release disagrees with every negative point in the Barron’s article and defends the Company’s approach in not using an SEC compliant reserve report.

Gold Resource effectively reputes the Barron’s charge that management “have been consistent sellers of the stock”.  The amount of stock sales by management amounted to only $13.7 million in the past year which is immaterial in relationship to total stock holdings by management, who remain the largest shareholders of Gold Resource.

One issue not resolved by either Barron’s article or the Gold Resources press release is a definitive answer on the amount of gold reserves in the El Aguila mine.  Since Gold Resource never conducted a study to assess the “proven and probable reserves” of El Aguila, this question will ultimately be resolved as mine production progresses.  Indications that mine production is increasing was provided by another Gold Resource press release on July 5th, in which the Company disclosed record production, revenue and earnings for the second quarter.

If Gold Resource continues to put up records results, the stock price of GORO could soar as nervous short sellers scramble to cover short positions.

 

GORO - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

 

Filed Under: Featured, Gold, Gold Stocks Tagged With: , , , ,