May 8, 2024

The Fundamental Reasons For Owning Gold and Silver Are Stronger Than Ever

One of the best methods for protecting wealth against a constantly depreciating paper currency is to own precious metals.

The bull case for precious metals remains intact as central bankers worldwide have become the lenders of last resort for nations that have exhausted their borrowing capacities.  Very little has changed since 2008 when the world financial system stood at the abyss of collapse.  Unsustainable debt levels continue to increase even as the capacity to service the debt diminishes.

As discussed in Why There is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices, the U.S. has reached a tipping point on the road to insolvency. Despite trillions in stimulus spending, both job creation and economic growth have been extremely weak and are likely to remain so.

Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, authors of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, offer comprehensive statistical evidence of the dangers of excessive public debt.  As documented in their book, once public sector debt reaches 90% (which the U.S. is very close to) a country has only three options, all of them bad.

According to Rogoff and Reinhart, the only way out for overleveraged nations is a restructuring through default, austerity or allowing inflation to increase while repressing interest rates at a very low level.

Default is the most drastic and least likely remedy to be used by a country such as the United States which issues its own currency and can create an unlimited number of dollars to service debt payments.

Austerity, the second option, is a highly unlikely scenario under our current democratic system.  Any politician voting for austerity measures would quickly be voted out of office and replaced by another politician promising continued funding of the social welfare state.  Since over half the country’s population currently depends on entitlement programs to survive, the power of the majority vote guarantees that austerity will not  become a policy for putting the country back on a fiscally sound economic path.  The inability to reduce unsustainable spending  or impose confiscatory rates of taxation leaves the government with one bad option – print more money.

The United States is currently locked into policy options that guarantee a long term rise in gold and silver prices.  The current weakness in precious metals represents a buying opportunity for those seeking to accumulate and protect their wealth over the long term.

APMEX Reports Sales Spike on eBay Bullion Center

Last  Wednesday, with New York gold down over $40 per ounce, even long time gold bulls were advising caution before committing to further investment.  Some precious metals dealers reported a flood of panic selling by anxious investors who were unloading physical coin and bar.

With everyone fearful of lower prices, exactly who was buying all that gold and silver from panicked investors?

Michael Haynes, CEO of APMEX, one of the countries largest precious metals dealers, said “As gold and silver prices continue to drop, long-term investors immediately reacted to the market movement. Recognizing that the precious metals were on sale and at a discount relative to the expected future values, buyers of physical bullion increased purchasing at the APMEX Bullion Center on eBay.”

Michael Haynes explained further.

“This was the second largest selling day for the APMEX Bullion Center on eBay since inception about five months ago, beating the next highest selling day by more than 30%. As Gold and Silver prices fell, heavily influenced by the reaction of day traders to the minutes from the recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, physical sales of both metals skyrocketed. Buyers of physical Gold and Silver have a moderate to long term view and concluded that with the price movements, the precious metals were on sale and at a discount relative to the expected future values. These investors in physical Gold and Silver apparently see the long term issues faced by the U.S. economy and seek some asset allocation into the non-correlated asset class of precious metals to protect and hedge their investments in paper assets like Stocks and Bonds.”

According to APMEX, the top sellers on the Bullion Center are the 1 oz Silver American Eagle, the 1 oz Gold American Eagle, the 5 gram Statue of Liberty Credit Suisse Gold Bar and the 100 oz Royal Canadian Mint Silver Bar.

Every bull market has corrections which offer long term investors the opportunity to add to positions at bargain prices.  The high volume of gold and silver purchases on the eBay Bullion Center indicates that mainstream buyers remain committed to precious metals as a method of wealth preservation.

Hedge Funds Record Short Gold Positions Is A Bullish Contrary Indicator

The deluge of bearish articles on gold continues with a Wall Street Journal article entitled “Money Managers Shorting Gold In Record Numbers.”

Hedge funds and other investment managers held a record number of bets on lower gold prices on the main U.S. gold exchange, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Managers tracked by the commodity regulator boosted their bets on lower Comex-traded gold futures and options by 33%, to 65,617 contracts, during the week ended Tuesday. That is the most in weekly CFTC data going back to June 2006.

The tone of the Journal article suggests that gold investors should be worried about bearish hedge fund positions.  However, when you look a little deeper into this situation, it’s actually another bullish contrary indicator for gold and here’s why – hedge funds have put up miserable performance numbers not just last year, but for the past decade.

According to Business Insider, an investor in a hedge fund would have been better off in a simple index fund.

The past year has been another mediocre one for hedge funds. The HFRX, a widely used measure of industry returns, is up by just 3%, compared with an 18% rise in the S&P 500 share index. Although it might be possible to shrug off one year’s underperformance, the hedgies’ problems run much deeper.

The S&P 500 has now outperformed its hedge-fund rival for ten straight years, with the exception of 2008 when both fell sharply. A simple-minded investment portfolio–60% of it in shares and the rest in sovereign bonds–has delivered returns of more than 90% over the past decade, compared with a meagre 17% after fees for hedge funds (see chart). As a group, the supposed sorcerers of the financial world have returned less than inflation. Gallingly, the profits passed on to their investors are almost certainly lower than the fees creamed off by the managers themselves.

Now that we have the facts on hedge fund performance, we realize that what appears to be a slanted bearish article on gold is in reality another contrary bullish indicator for future gold price performance (also see Financial Advisors Bearish On Gold Represents Buy Signal).

Top Financial Advisors Negative On Gold As Perfect Contrarian Storm Brews

The outlook for gold has turned profoundly negative.  With prices down over 4% since the start of the year, gold is off to the worst start since 2001.  Billionaire investors George Soros and Louis Moore Bacon have dramatically slashed their gold holdings and Bloomberg reports that money managers have liquidated gold and precious metal holdings for six straight weeks, the longest stretch of outflows since the first quarter of 2011.

Further confirmation of the bearish outlook on gold investment was provided by Barron’s latest survey of America’s top financial advisors who manage money for the ultra wealthy.  According to Barron’s, the “one clear theme” of the advisors for 2013 is an increased commitment to stocks,  logically implying that most advisors see a better economy and rising corporate profits.  With bond yields reaching all time lows, stock dividends are also able to provide income starved investors with yields unattainable from government debt securities or gold.

Barron’s surveyed the best financial advisors in fifty states and the District of Columbia and listed their latest recommendations.  Out of the 51 financial advisors interviewed, only two gave a lukewarm recommendation for gold as a hedge.

With the investor outlook for gold about as negative as it can get, a contrarian opportunity is developing.  A negative consensus by itself is not sufficient to justify an overallocation to gold nor can it provide the timing for a reversal.  Negative sentiment and corresponding price declines provide the opportunity to assess the validity of the consensus and weigh the opportunity for out-sized gains when the consensus swings in the opposite direction.

The probability for a sentiment reversal on gold is not unreasonable.

Severely dysfunctional governments worldwide have abdicated responsibility for implementing policies that would lead to sound fundamental economic growth and fiscal restraint.  In their stead, responsibility for running world economies has been delegated to central banks which have virtually zero constraints on providing easy money as the solution for over indebtedness and slow growth.

The consensus belief is that the benefit of unlimited cheap money, which is clearly stimulating current asset inflation, will eventually benefit the real economy.  This beautiful theory of wealth creation by central banks becomes even more appealing as central bankers assure us that easy money policies will not cause high inflation since monetary policies could quickly be adjusted if inflation rises too high.  After putting the world on a path to permanent prosperity and ending poverty through unlimited money printing, perhaps the world’s central banks will also come up with a cure for cancer – we shall see.  In the meantime, the contrarian case for investing in gold grows with each passing day.

Expect $200 Silver As The Shift To Real Assets Accelerates

By: Deviant Investor

silver-coin-sm

    • Silver has no counter-party risk. It is not someone else’s liability. Silver Eagles or Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins are recognized around the world and have intrinsic value everywhere. The same is NOT true for hundreds of paper currencies that have become worthless, usually because the government or central bank printed them to excess to pay the debts of governments that did not control spending.
    • The price of silver in US dollars since the year 2001 has been strongly correlated with the ever-increasing official national debt of the United States. Read $100 Silver! Yes, But When? I doubt that anyone believes the national debt will decrease or even remain constant over the next four years. We have every reason to believe that it will increase by well over $1,000,000,000,000 per year for many years. If the national debt is rapidly increasing and it correlates, on average, with the price of silver, then we can be reasonably certain that the HIGHLY VOLATILE price of silver will increase substantially over the next few years.

Click on image to enlarge.
    • Silver has been used as money (medium of exchange and a store of value) for over 3,000 years. In most cultures, silver has been used for daily transactions far more often than gold. I have read that the word for “money” is the same as the word for “silver” in many languages.
    • In the United States silver was used as money – coins – until the 1960s when inflation in the paper money supply caused the price of silver to rise sufficiently that silver coins were removed from circulation. Do you remember silver dollars? They contained approximately 0.77 ounces of silver. Currently the US Mint produces silver eagles which contain 1.0 ounce of silver – and cost approximately $35.

silver-coin

  • Argentina has devalued their currency several times and has dropped eight zeros off their unbacked paper money in the past 30 years. The United States has not dropped any zeros from dollars, but it took approximately one-half of one dollar to buy an ounce of silver 100 years ago, while it takes over 30 in today’s reduced value dollars. It took about 20 dollars to buy an ounce of gold 100 years ago and it takes over 1,600 dollars to buy that same ounce of gold today. There are many more dollars (paper and electronic) in circulation today compared to 100 years ago. Hence the prices, measured in declining value dollars, for silver, gold, wheat, crude oil, bread, coffee, and ammunition is MUCH larger.

 

  • Throughout history the prices of gold and silver have increased and decreased together, usually with gold costing 10 to 20 times as much as silver. A historical ratio of 15 or 16 is often quoted and that places the current ratio, which is in excess of 50, as relatively high. Since Nixon “closed the gold window” on August 15, 1971 and allowed the dollar to become an unbacked paper currency that could be created in nearly unlimited quantities, the gold to silver ratio has ranged from a high of approximately 100 to a low of approximately 17. There is room for silver prices to explode higher, narrowing the ratio to perhaps 20 to 1. When gold reaches $3,500 (Jim Sinclair) and subsequently much higher in the next few years, and assuming the ratio drops to approximately 20 to 1, the price of silver could approach $200 per ounce, on its way to a much higher number, depending on the extent of the QE-Infinity “money printing,” panic, hyperinflation, and investor demand.

 

  • If you think a silver price of $200 per ounce is outrageous, I suspect you would find near universal agreement among most Americans. But is a national debt in excess of $16,000,000,000,000 less outrageous? If unfunded liabilities are included the “fiscal gap” is, depending on who is calculating it, approximately $100,000,000,000,000 to $220,000,000,000,000. For perspective, that places the unfunded liabilities of the US government at approximately $700,000 per person in the United States. Is $700,000 unfunded liability (debt) per man, woman, and child more believable than a price for silver of $200?

It seems likely that the populace will eventually realize that:

  • Government spending is out of control and will not be voluntarily reduced.
  • “Printing money” or debt monetization (QE) is necessary and inevitable in order to continue funding the excess spending of the US government. More money in circulation means a declining purchasing power for the dollar. The decline is likely to accelerate at some time in the future.
  • The real value of our savings and retirement diminishes as the dollar declines in value.
  • People will panic and shift into real assets to preserve their purchasing power. (There is no fever like gold fever!)
  • That panic will cause gold, silver, and many other real assets to drastically increase in price, as measured in devalued dollars.
  • It is better to be early than late if a panic-moment is about to arrive.
  • Silver is less expensive per ounce than gold and more available for purchase than gold, particularly for middle-class westerners. An investment into silver is likely to appreciate more than a similar investment in gold.

What Do You Believe?

  • Do you believe that excessive spending and debt will be reduced?
  • Do you believe that the decline in purchasing power of the dollar over the last 100 years will suddenly
  • Do you believe that congressional promises for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and government pensions will be broken?
  • Do you believe the Federal Reserve will continue to print the money to pay for those promises?
  • Do you believe your savings and retirement are totally safe in paper investments denominated in dollars?
  • Do you believe, as history indicates, that paper money eventually devalues to zero while gold and silver retain their value?
  • Do you believe that the world will suddenly stop using silver, instead of finding new uses for it every year?
  • Would you rather trust silver coins in a safe place or paper money and political promises?
    Most people will do nothing to protect their financial future. Will you?
    GE Christenson
    aka Deviant Investor

Explosive Gold Rally Is Imminent Based On Bearish Sentiment and Fundamentals

You know the world is changing when the head of the world’s biggest bond fund recommends gold as his first asset choice.

In this week’s Barron’s Roundtable, Bond King Bill Gross affirms his bullish view on gold due to his assessment that central banks will continue to suppress interest rates by purchasing vast amounts of government debt with printed money.  Gross notes that the financial system is now longer operating under free-market capitalism when the Fed is buying a “remarkable” 80% of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury.  Massive deficits are being funded with printed currency on a global scale never attempted in the past and sooner or later, according to Bill Gross, inflation will blow past the central bank’s targeted rate of 2.5%.

The really big risk comes when huge holders of U.S. debt such as China and Japan become disgusted with U.S. fiscal and monetary policies and decide to dump their treasuries as inflation decimates the value of their holdings.  Bill Gross tells Barron’s exactly what could go wrong and which gold investment he likes the best.

The big risk is that the Chinese would rather own something else. Investors can choose between artificially priced financial assets or real assets like oil and gold or, to be really safe, cash. The real risk to the financial markets is the marginal proclivity of investors to put their money in real assets, or under the mattress. Thus, my first recommendation is GLD — the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund. It has a fee, but it is an easy way for investors to buy a real asset.

Lots of things go into pricing gold, but real interest rates [adjusted for inflation] and expected inflation are two dominant considerations. Gold probably won’t move much from current levels unless real rates decline more or inflationary expectations rise from the current 2.5% to 3%, or higher. That’s what gets gold off the dime. It is a decent hedge. It doesn’t earn anything, but not much else earns anything either.

Pounding the table even harder than Gross, Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist, tells Barron’s that an explosive rally in gold seems imminent based on the massive bearish sentiment towards gold.  Long term, Hickey sees gold hitting at least $5,000 per ounce, a target that Gold and Silver Blog also sees as a very reasonable future price target.

Hickey: I am recommending gold, as I have done for many years. I will continue to do so until the gold price hits the blow-off stage, which is nowhere in sight. I am excited about gold because sentiment is so negative. Gold could have a sharp rally at any time. The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index went deeply negative last week, indicating that gold-newsletter writers are recommending net short positions. When that happens, gold almost always rallies. The daily sentiment index for gold is at a 12-year low. Short positions by large speculators have doubled in the past few months. Sales of American Eagle coins hit a five-year low in 2012. Yet, the environment for gold couldn’t be better. We talked today about massive money-printing by all the major central banks. Real interest rates are negative. These are the best possible conditions for a gold rally.

Felix said gold could rally to the $1,800-an-ounce level, and I agree. If it breaks that, it will go to $2,000 or more. As long as we have unlimited quantitative easing, we have the potential for unlimited gains in the gold price. Gold could go to $5,000 or even $10,000. You can buy gold through the GLD or IAU, as we discussed. This year I recommend physical gold. You can buy American Eagle coins, or gold bars. Everyone should have some physical gold, and almost no one in the U.S. does.

Hickey also says that the price of gold is nowhere near a “blow off stage”, despite constant mainstream press reports of gold’s imminent collapse.  For further discussion on this see The Gold Bubble Myth and Why There Is No Upside Limit For Gold and Silver Prices.

American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Sales Soar In January To Multi-Year High

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin soared during the first month of the year.  According to the US Mint, gold bullion coin sales totaled 150,000 ounces, up 97.4% from December 2012 when 76,000 ounces were sold.  Sales for the month were up 18.1% from comparable sales of 127,000 ounces a year ago during January 2012.

There has been a surge in demand for both gold and silver bullion coins during the first month of 2013.  Sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins hit an all time record high during January as public demand for physical silver soared.  The U.S. Mint has been forced to suspend sales of the silver bullion coins twice since last December since their entire stock was sold out.  In addition, opening day sales for the 2013 American Silver Eagle bullion coins were the largest on record with total sales of 3,937,000 coins.  To put this huge sales figure into perspective, prior to 2008, total annual sales of the silver bullion coins was only about 9.5 million coins.

January sales of 150,000  ounces of American Eagle gold bullion coins was the sixth largest on record and represents a multi-year high in sales since July 2010 when 152,000 ounces were sold.  The previous record months were June 2010 with 151,500 ounces, December 2009 with 231,500 ounces, April 2009 with 157,500 ounces and December 2008 with 176,000 ounces.

The gold bullion coins are available in one ounce, one-half ounce, one quarter ounce and one-tenth ounce.  The total number of coins sold during January 2013 was 275,500 as shown below.

JAN 2013 GOLD BULLION SALES
OUNCES # COINS
ONE 124,500 124,500
HALF 8,500 17,000
QUARTER 6,000 24,000
TENTH 11,000 110,000
150,000 275,500

The American Eagle gold bullion coins are not sold directly to the public but rather to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based upon the market value of gold and a Mint markup.  The authorized purchasers then resell the coins to the public, coin dealers and other bullion dealers.  The U.S. Mint utilizes this distribution channel in order to make the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs and premiums in line with other bullion programs.

Nine Reasons Why You Must Own Gold

By: Deviant Investor

american-gold-eagle-coins

    • Gold has been real money (medium of exchange and a store of value) for over 3,000 years. It is still real money.
    • Gold has no counter-party risk. It is not someone else’s liability. It has intrinsic value that is recognized around the world.
    • ALL paper money systems have eventually failed. The intrinsic value of paper money is effectively zero; and all paper money has, throughout history, eventually devalued to zero.
    • Paper money is a liability of a central bank or a government that may be insolvent. The money issued by a central bank or government has value based NOT on its intrinsic value, but only upon people’s faith, trust, and confidence in that money. Occasionally that faith and confidence is misplaced. For example:

zimbabwe

    • The price of gold in US dollars since the year 2001 has been strongly correlated with the ever-increasing official national debt of the United States. Read $4,000 Gold! Yes, But When? Does anyone believe that the national debt will decrease or even remain constant over the next several years? NO! The national debt will increase even more rapidly over the next four years and so will the price of gold. Skeptical? Then look at the chart of national debt and the nearly parallel price of gold. Still skeptical? Do you remember gasoline selling for less than $.20 per gallon and gold selling for about $40? They have increased in price because there are currently many more dollars in circulation than in the 1960s – hence, it takes more dollars to buy an ounce of gold, a gallon of gasoline, a loaf of bread, a cup of coffee, or a fighter jet.

Click on image to enlarge.
  • Because governments and central banks issue paper money backed by nothing but faith and credit, they are in competition with gold which is real money. Should we be surprised when they discount the importance of gold and discourage ownership? Should we be surprised when the “Oracle of Omaha” denigrates gold ownership? (Berkshire Hathaway holds huge positions in banking stocks and Goldman Sachs stock.) Should we be surprised when news stories are heavily slanted against gold ownership?
  • Groucho Marx once said, “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” Who are you going to believe – the history of gold as valuable money while paper money failed, or the pronouncements of politicians, central banks, and the owners of bank stocks?
  • Who and what do you believe? It will be important to your financial well-being if (when) paper money accelerates its journey toward an intrinsic value of zero.
  • Are you going to believe history and current facts or less reliable information from politicians, central banks, and the owners of bank stocks?

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

GATA Finally Gets The Recognition It Deserves

Every gold and silver investor owes a debt of gratitude to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA).  Long fluffed off by the mainstream media, GATA has been a voice in the wilderness in exposing the manipulative schemes of governments and central banks to suppress gold prices.

With printing presses running wild world wide, the issue of gold price suppression will become ever more critical as the public eventually realizes that the only viable alternative to paper money backed by nothing is a gold backed currency system.

The tireless efforts of GATA, spearheaded by Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell,  in documenting surreptitious gold price suppression schemes by central banks has finally been recognized by a major mainstream financial publication.

The Financial Times, in an article regarding the repatriation of gold from the Fed by the Bundesbank, talks about the lack of transparency by central banks in the gold market.  (Read the full article here.)

The gold market barely shrugged when the Bundesbank announced it would move 674 tonnes of the stuff from Paris and New York to Frankfurt.

But the move is important: not for what it says about Germany’s faith in French or American vaults; nor for the cost of shifting 674 tonnes of gold; but because it is a major victory for transparency in the gold market.

Central banks are notoriously secretive about their gold-trading activities.

Most report, on a monthly basis, their gold reserves to the International Monetary Fund. But these data fall a long way short of full transparency. They tell us nothing about derivative positions in the gold market — for example, gold loans, agreements for future sales, or options transactions.

The historical lack of transparency among central banks is somewhat understandable.

With 29,500 tonnes between them (a decade of global mine supply) they have the ability to disrupt the market significantly if their trades are too public. See, for example, the reaction to the UK’s announcement that it would sell a large part of its reserves in 1999.

Maybe at some point, the rest of the mainstream media will finally decide to take a critical look at the dealings of central banks in the gold market.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coin Sales Soar To All Time Record High

With two days remaining in the month of January, U.S. Mint sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins have already established an all time record high.   The latest numbers from the Mint show total sales of 7,420,000 silver bullion coins as January 29, 2013.  Total sales during January 2012 amounted to 6,107,000 coins.  During January 2011 (the previous monthly record high for silver bullion coin sales) the Mint sold 6,422,000 coins.

The public demand for silver seems insatiable.  To put the unprecedented demand for silver into perspective, prior to the financial crisis of  2008, total yearly sales of the silver bullion coin averaged only about 9.5 million coins per year.  With the Federal Reserve furiously printing money to keep the financial system glued together, investor demand for both physical silver and gold bullion is likely to increase dramatically.

The US Mint has been unable to keep up with the demand for American Silver Eagles for the past two months (see U.S. Mint Sold Out).  During December, unexpectedly strong demand resulted in the suspension of silver bullion coin sales during mid December after the entire stock of 2012 coins was sold out.  At the time the Mint announced that the 2013 American Silver Eagles would be available on January 7, 2013.

Opening day sales on January 7th for the 2013 American Silver Eagle bullion coins turned out to be the largest on record with sales of 3,937,000 coins.  Demand for silver bullion continued to climb and by January 17th, the Mint once again announced that sales of the silver bullion coins would be suspended until the last week of January.  When sales resumed this week, demand was again much higher than anticipated.  Due to record demand, the Mint previously announced that they may have to institute rationing of the coins.  Since the US Mint’s production schedule has been blown right out the window for two months running, it would not be surprising if rationing of the coins was implemented.

Sales of the American Eagle Gold bullion coins has also soared during the first month of the year.  January sales to date of 140,000 ounces of gold bullion coins is the highest monthly sales since June 2010 when the Mint sold 151,500 ounces.