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The State of the Gold Market

November 28, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Until quite recently, the gold market has been experiencing a strong rise in prices. This has been due to factors such as concerns regarding weak currencies and unstable foreign governments. Gold has been viewed as a safe haven investment and has been attracting an increasing share of investment dollars. Despite the recent cool down, many market experts are predicting a continued rise in prices over the long term.

The Most Recent Market Reports

As of November 26, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) stated that its holdings remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 41,316,740 ounces. The IShares Silver Trust (SLV) stated that its holdings declined by 5,865,684 ounces to 344.374 million ounces. Market experts have suggested that the holding pattern, as well as the slightly lowered prices indicate a decrease in safe haven demand. Recent data on the economic situation in the US has at least temporarily arrested some of the more pressing fears about the economy, and the price of gold has typically risen and fallen inversely to the strength of the dollar.

Other Gold Related News

There are other potential considerations. For example: a major French gold supplier is launching a range of mini bars. There has been a growing interest in precious metal investments in the French market and this new approach is aimed to capture some of this market. In addition, Canadian company Infinito Gold Ltd has lost its gold concession after a Costa Rican court ruled that their mining was harmful to the local environment. Finally, the central bank in Vietnam is actively attempting to cool domestic gold market prices by granting additional quotas for domestic companies importing gold between now and year end.

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Gold and Silver Recap: Prices Mixed, Eurozone Troubles

November 28, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Another Precious Week

The big news is once again that the Euro zone is in trouble.  Ireland has rather bizarrely decided to take a bail out loan that it claimed that it never wanted, but that’s not the really, really big news.

No the really, really big news is that the rest of the Euro zone is in trouble.  Both Portugal and Spain are denying that they need bail outs, which to the international markets seems to mean “are in an early rather than a later stage of negotiation”.  Even Belgium is looking vulnerable.  And outside the Eurozone the British, who seem to have been remarkably smug, are also in trouble due to their mainly nationalized banks being up to their neck in bad Irish debt.  So chaos.

And then there’s Korea, where we could have war.  And so more chaos.

But not inflationary chaos, yet.  This has meant that gold and silver swapped places this week.  Gold went up (reflecting a greater danger that the world was going to end soon) while silver went down showing that inflation was probably not likely when everyone’s trying to work out how to wind up a small but rather expansive economy.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Weekly Change
Gold $1,355.00 +12.50 (+0.93%)
Silver $26.62 -0.45 (-1.66%)
Platinum $1,639.00 -11.00 (-0.67%)
Palladium $670.00 -25.00 (-3.60%)

This has not just shown in silver, palladium and platinum prices – it’s also shown in the price for crude oil.  The dollar’s strengthened and everyone’s worried about money going out of the system rather than going in.  Whether this will last is another question, after all although the Euro is a mad concept with a single currency over separate fiscal policies it had a reasonably strong central bank.  Sooner or later someone’s going to start the printing press up as they’ve already done in Washington, Tokyo and London.  And gold rose 3.8% against the Euro.

When looking at the market there hasn’t really been much government action.  The action, as it has been for much of this half of the year, has been among consumers.  For example the GLD ETF, a way of investing in gold if you really trust brokers rather than gold coins in your hand, has been soaking up a lot of the customer interest in gold.  As these ETFs, or exchange traded funds, are adding to the liquidity they could be setting the stage for a sharp reverse.

There’s also some action in Asia as the Indian wedding season is adding yet more pressure as the wedding season starts and Vietnam allows more gold to be imported. One interesting fact is that Chinese consumers have doubled the amount of savings they devote to gold this year to 2%.  There’s plenty of room for growth.

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Perth Mint Forecasts Jump in Silver Coin Sales

November 26, 2010 by Leave a Comment

The Perth Mint is operated by Gold Corporation, which is wholly owned by the Government of Western Australia. The Perth Mint currently refines all of the gold mined in Australia, as well as gold from surrounding countries, and scrap gold from Asia. In addition, they refine substantial quantities of silver.

The latter has been favored by Sales and Marketing Director Ron Currie, who stated, “There seems to be more upside with silver than gold right now.”

The State of Silver

Currie’s statements come as the Perth Mint provided their outlook for silver coin sales to increase by more than 50% for the year. The Perth Mint sells investment gold and silver coins and bars to customers throughout the world. They recently launched a website which allows Australian customers to purchase bullion products at live prices.

Other world mints have also recently provided forecasts for higher silver bullion sales. The Royal Canadian Mint, which offers silver bullion coins like the Silver Maple Leaf, forecast an increase in silver coin sales of more than 50% for the year. For 2009, silver coin sales had reached 10,300,000 ounces.

Sales of the United States Mint’s American Silver Eagle bullion coin recently moved into record territory for the year to date. The latest figures available from their website show sales of more than 32,500,000 ounces for the current year.

Silver or Gold?

The recent move towards silver investment, comes as the price of silver has been outperforming gold. For the year to date, silver has risen by about 57%, while gold has gained about 25%.

This recent divergence has resulted in a decline in the gold/silver ratio. This ratio measures the  number of ounces of silver it takes to purchase an ounce of gold. The ratio had spiked to more than 80 in late 2008, and was above 70 as recently as February of this year. Currently, the ratio stands at about 51 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold.

During the era when gold and silver were used in circulating U.S. coins, the ratio was officially set at 15 to 16. Within the earth’s crust, gold and silver naturally occur at a ratio of about 17.

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Societe Generale Favors Gold and Silver Against Farm Commodities

November 23, 2010 by Leave a Comment

At a recent media briefing, Societe Generale made their predictions for the next year’s commodities prices. Though gold has been in record territory and some are concerned that the price is peaking, they predict that it will continue to be a strong investment.

Fredric Lasserre, head of commodities research, commented “We might see some gold-price rally again because of the recent fears regarding sovereign debt, and also the impact it may have on the dollar-euro.” According to the bank’s predictions, gold could advance 11% in the next year. Palladium could advance 21% and silver could advance 19%.

Societe Generale contrasted these predictions with those of other commodities, particularly farm products. The bank cited supply shocks when it stated that most farm commodities don’t seem to have much upside potential at the moment. Their prices have recently rallied, but are not expected to do so again, unlike those of precious metals.

This year precious metals performance has been led by palladium, which has advanced 75%, followed by silver, up 64%, and gold, which has advanced 24%.

Soc Gen’s statements have been echoed by other banks who have also backing been gold and silver investment for the coming year. They recommend that consumers remain overweight in precious metals, stating that they are some of the safest long positions. This confidence appears to be supported by the recent behavior of the market.

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2010 Proof Gold Eagle Selling Quickly

November 23, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Sales of the recently released 2010 Proof American Gold Eagle already account for more than 74,000 ounces of gold. The collector offerings were first available for sale from the United States Mint on October 7, 2010.

In addition to gold and silver bullion coins distributed through a network of authorized purchasers, the US Mint also typically offers collectible versions of the coins for direct sale. Numismatic products for the American Gold Eagle were canceled last year due to the demand for bullion coins. With the resumption of sales this year, collectors have returned in force.

Through November 21, the total sales for the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles measured in ounces, already exceed the final sales total for the 2008 offerings by more than 50%. The 2008 Proof Gold Eagles were available for a period of more than ten months.

2010 Proof Gold Eagle Sales through 11/21/10

Units Ounces
1 oz 25,000 25,000.00
1/2 oz 6,031 3,015.50
1/4 oz 5,194 1,298.50
1/10 oz 12,809 1,280.90
4 coin set 23,464 43,408.40
Total
74,003.30

2008 Proof Gold Eagle Sales Final

Units Ounces
1 oz 17,720 17,720.00
1/2 oz 10,085 5,042.50
1/4 oz 6,360 1,590.00
1/10 oz 15,599 1,559.90
4 coin set 12,517 23,156.45
Total
49,068.85

Maximum product limits for the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles have been established at 25,000 one ounce coins, 15,000 half ounce, 16,000 quarter ounce, 27,000 tenth ounce, and 39,000 of the 4 coin sets. So far the one ounce option has achieved the maximum.

If all options sell out, this would account for 111,350 ounces of gold.

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The World’s Rarest Gold Collection—Sold!

November 22, 2010 by Leave a Comment

The gold collection housed at the Carson Nugget in Carson City, Nevada was one of the two largest on display in the United States. It had been billed as the “world’s rarest gold collection,” and consisted of 170 specimens of gold in crystalline and nugget form with a combined weight of more than 300 ounces. The collection was originally put on display in the 1950’s, when the casino opened.

The bulk of the collection was assembled in the 1930’s by a California collector named John Ghririoso. It was purchased by Richard Graves for display at the Nevada casino and hotel called the Carson Nugget. When the casino was purchased by Howard and Hop Adams in 1957, the new owners continued to display and enhance the collection. Now, however, it will be going to a new home.

Selling the Nugget’s Collection

The collection, which has been valued at prices up to five million, was put on sale due to dwindling public interest. It simply has not been drawing the visitors that it once did. The current strength of the gold market made it an excellent time to reconsider the casino’s ownership, since the collection isn’t actually vital to its operations. The owners put the collection up for auction, setting the minimum bid at $1.1 million dollars.

An Impressive Purchase

The actual auction drew attention from more than 50 bidders. Their number was made up of public and private collectors, institutions, and dealers. It’s likely that the collection ended up with a collector, or perhaps and institution, but we don’t know for sure since the actual amount of the sale as well as the buyer’s identity is protected by a confidentiality agreement. Nor do we know at this time what the future of the celebrated collection might be. What we do know is that it is extremely valuable and unique, as these high quality specimens are no longer mined. Truly a once in a lifetime investment for one successful buyer.

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Gold and Silver Recap: Prices Mixed, $500 Silver Campaign

November 19, 2010 by Leave a Comment

The excitement seems to generally be wearing off.  It could be the end of the bull market in precious metals.  I don’t think so, but if I call it now and it does happen I will look like a prophet as every one else (including me) thinks that gold is going up.  Words are cheap.  Silver certainly isn’t.

In fact the market has been a bit up and down.  Down for two days on Tuesday and Wednesday, back up on Thursday and then gradually back on Friday.  In fact the gold price for once seems to have been helped by the world not going to pot, as the Euro zone seemed to be edging towards a deal to put Ireland into run off.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Weekly Change
Gold $1,342.50 -46.00 (-3.31%)
Silver $27.07 +0.28 (+1.05%)
Platinum $1,650.00 -62.00 (-3.62%)
Palladium $695.00 -8.00 (-1.14%)

It seems to have affected silver as well.  It only went up 1% this week.  On silver’s past form this is a fall.  So have they stopped competitive devaluation?  You bet they haven’t.  It’s just that fewer people are noticing it.

One stealth seller of gold from the official sector – which has been very quiet – has been the IMF.  While the World Bank goes around telling everyone that the gold standard is something worth considering, the IMF has been ever so quietly selling gold.  This has accelerated when the gold price has been relatively high as the IMF is not making an ideological statement in the same way that Gordon Brown did in the UK when he sold off a chunk of the gold reserves.  This has been counteracted by equally quiet gold buying from some Central Banks, particularly Russia.

Another source of demand is the Asian consumer, and that was quite evident on the week’s trading as much of the dip was attributed to the Chinese resolve in fighting inflation.  If China is successful against inflation then demand for gold will lessen.  One fact on the demand, China is now approaching India as the biggest gold consumer in the world, how long before the Chinese Central Bank shares its peoples growing love of gold?

Silver is still going up, even when all the other precious metals have a bad week.  There’s been relatively little action on the price fixing case, although there is now a rather bizarre campaign to bankrupt JP Morgan (one of the alleged fixers) by having everyone buying an ounce of silver which JP Morgan would have to sell back.  Their target?  Silver at $500 an ounce.  Currently it’s $27.

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2010 Proof Silver Eagle Sales Begin

November 19, 2010 by Leave a Comment

For the first time in more than two years, Proof Silver Eagles are available for purchase from the United States Mint. In recent years, the availability of the collector coins has been prevented by the high demand for physical precious metals.

The US Mint produces American Silver Eagles for both precious metals investors and collectors. The bullion version of the coin is distributed through a network of authorized purchasers, who are able to purchase the coins based on the market price of silver plus a specified premium (currently $2.00 per coin). The authorized purchasers then resell the coins to other bullion dealers and the public, as well as create a two way market for the coins to ensure liquidity. By law the US Mint is required to issue the bullion coins in quantities needed to meet public demand.

The collector versions of the coin are sold by the US Mint directly to the public. Traditionally, a proof version of the coin has been offered to collectors each year. For various occasions, collectible Silver Eagles have also been incorporated into various numismatic products. More recently, a collectible uncirculated version of the coin was offered. Silver Eagles produced for collectors have been offered at fixed prices, generally reflecting a large premium above the value of the silver content. There is no legal requirement for the US Mint to produce or issue collector coins.

Proof Silver Eagles were last available in August 2008. After that point sales of the 2008-dated coins were suspended, never to be resumed. In the following year, the offering was long delayed and eventually canceled. Due to high demand for the bullion version of the coin and the US Mint’s legal requirement to meet public demand, during this period silver planchet supplies were used exclusively to strike bullion coins for this extended period of time.

This year, the US Mint managed to reconcile their legal obligation to precious metals investors and their traditional obligation to coin collectors and sell a record number of bullion coins and offer the collector coins.

The 2010 Proof Silver Eagles are priced at $45.95 each. A limit of 100 coins per household has been imposed by the US Mint for at least the first week of release. Order fulfillment is expected to begin by December 1, 2010.

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Will the US Mint Resume Silver Eagle Rationing?

November 18, 2010 by Leave a Comment

During the course of the past several years, the United States Mint has implemented a rationing program for their popular American Silver Eagle bullion coins at times when demand has exceeded the available supply. Will a recent surge in demand for silver bullion cause them to reinstate the program?

The euphemistically titled “allocation program” was last implemented for Silver Eagles in December 2009. This followed a brief sales suspension during the last few days of November. At the time, the price of silver had been moving steadily higher, supporting increasing interest in precious metals investment. The US Mint experienced a slow month of silver bullion sales in September, followed by increasing demand in October and November leading up to the suspension and ensuing allocation program, which remained in place until this September.

During the past few months, the situation is shaping up to be eerily similar. In September 2010, the US Mint sold 1,880,000 ounces of silver bullion, which represented the lowest monthly sales of the year. In October, sales rebounded strongly to 3,150,000 ounces. For the current month date, sales have already exceeded this amount, measuring 3,175,000.

With the month a little more than half over, the total seems poised to set a new monthly sales record. The current record is 3,636,500 ounces achieved earlier this year in May. Annual sales are already in record territory.

Bullion sales have been rising against a backdrop of steadily rising silver prices. Since the end of September, the silver price has increased from $22.07 to $26.57, representing a gain of more than 20% in less than two months. Reports of tightening supplies or shortages for other silver bullion have also been reported. This may explain the recent move towards the higher premium bullion coins.

The American Silver Eagle is currently the only silver bullion product offered by the United States Mint. A second program known as the America the Beautiful Silver bullion coins has been scheduled to launch this year, but a release date has not yet been specified.

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Platinum Price Underperforms Gold, Silver, and Palladium

November 18, 2010 by Leave a Comment

In what has been a strong year for precious metals, platinum is showing only a modest gain of 13.35% for the year to date. This is below the gains experienced for gold and silver, and far below the nearly 75% gain for palladium.

After peaking at $2,273 per ounce in March 2008, platinum dropped precipitously to a low of $763 per ounce by October of the same year. While other precious metals have reattained their 2008 high water marks and then some, platinum has lagged behind.

Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Performance (London Fix Prices)

Dec 31, 2009 Nov 18, 2010 Change Percent
Gold 1,087.50 1,350.25 262.75 24.16%
Silver 16.99 26.57 9.58 56.39%
Platinum 1,461.00 1,656.00 195.00 13.35%
Palladium 393.00 684.00 291.00 74.05%

The relative under performance of platinum compared to palladium can be explained by the supply and demand situation. While platinum is forecast to be in a surplus of 290,000 ounces for the year, palladium will be in a deficit of around 200,000 ounces. There has been more demand for palladium, which is used in catalytic converters for gas powered automobiles, than platinum, which is used in diesel devices. Palladium recently hit a nine year high above $700 per ounce.

The ratio between the price of platinum and palladium is 2.42, which is the lowest ratio is more than seven years.

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium Chart (COMEX Prices)

Gold and silver prices have benefited from strong demand from investors. Global fiscal imbalances and currency tensions have brought attention to these metals’ historic status as stores of value and inflation hedges. Due to platinum’s predominantly industrial uses and the supply surplus noted, it has not been as significant a beneficiary.

The price difference between platinum and gold is currently $305.75. When platinum reached its peak price in March 2008, the difference had expanded to $1,289. The metals traded close to parity in mid-December 2008.

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