November 26, 2022

U.S. Mint Bullion Coin Sales for February 2014 Show Silver Up, Gold Down

2013-w-gold-eagleSales of bullion coins by the U.S. Mint were mixed in February with silver bullion coins showing an increase and gold bullion coins a decline.

After hitting all time record sales in 2013 sales of the American Silver Eagle bullion coins are off to a slower sales pace in 2014.  According to the U.S. Mint a total of 3,750,000 silver bullion coins were sold in February, up by 381,500 ounces or 11.3% over the comparable prior year period.  February 2014 year to date sales of silver bullion coins total 8,525,000 ounces, down by 2,341,500 ounces or 21.5% from the previous year.

Retail investors have long regarded silver bullion coins as an excellent investment.  The price pullback in silver since 2011 provided an excellent opportunity to make additional purchases at bargain prices and investor took advantage of the situation.  Silver bullion coin demand soared last year to almost 42 million ounces and the U.S. Mint could not keep up with demand.  Demand for silver coin was so great that the U.S. Mint ran out of coins and suspended sales for most of December and part of January 2014.

Sales of silver bullion coins are shown below by year.  The sales for 2014 are through February 28th.  Sales of silver bullion coins have exploded since the financial meltdown of 2008 when the Federal Reserve began printing trillions of dollars out of thin air, a program which continues to this day.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins slowed dramatically in February compared to last year.  Total sales of gold bullion coins was 31,000 ounces compared to 80,500 last February.   2014 year to date sales through February totaled 122,500 ounces compared to 230,500 ounces for the comparable prior year period.

Gold coin sales can fluctuate considerably from month to month but sales have exploded since the financial crisis in 2008 and remain very high by historical standards.  After declining for three years in a row, sales of gold bullion coins strengthened during 2013 with sales above 2012 levels.

2014 totals through February 28th.

According to Reuters the decline in gold bullion coin demand was due to large sales of coins by hedge fund speculators and other large investors.  As the sale of these coins flooded into dealer vaults they had less need to purchase coin from the U.S. Mint.

american-silver-eagle

The American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

U.S. MINT BULLION COIN SALES
MONTH GOLD SILVER
2014 2013 2014 2013
JANUARY       91,500   150,000    4,775,000     7,498,000
FEBRUARY       31,000      80,500    3,750,000     3,368,500
TOTALS     122,500   230,500    8,525,000   10,866,500

With economic and political turmoil spreading across the globe and central banks standing ready to flood the world with paper currencies, gold and silver continue to remain a safe haven for many investors.  It would not be surprising to see gold and silver surge in price this year in defiance of the bearish calls of many analysts.

U.S. Mint Runs Out of Silver Bullion Coins – Gold and Silver Coin Sales Hit Record Levels in November

rooseveltLong term proponents of sound money cannot seem to get enough of U.S. Mint produced gold and silver bullion coins.  Ever since the financial crash of 2008 many Americans remain profoundly skeptical of the paper dollar system backed by the “full faith and credit” of a nation that has borrowed itself into poverty and promised more in social benefits than the economy can possible provide.

From 2000 to 2007 sales of the U.S. Mint American Eagle gold bullion coins averaged about 341,000 ounces annually.  After the crash of 2008 exposed the risk of paper assets, sales of the gold bullion coins have averaged about 1,011,300 ounces annually from 2008 to 2013.

Year to date sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins as of the end of November totaled 800,500 ounces, surpassing total 2012 sales of 753,000 ounces.  For November the U.S. Mint sold 48,000 ounces of gold bullion coins, slightly below the sales figures of 48,500 for the previous month.  Since 2000 investors have stashed away 8.8 million gold bullion coins currently worth about $11 billion.

Gold has retained its value throughout human history and strong demand for gold over the ages has resulted in the depletion of most gold deposits on the planet.  As noted in a previous post, about 75% of all gold deposits have already been mined which forebodes a future gold shortage.

american-silver-eagleAs noted in a previous post, sales of the U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins hit record annual sales volume in  November.  The U.S. Mint sold a total of 41,475,000 silver bullion coins as of November 30th, surpassing the previous record sales year of 39,868,500 coins in 2011.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins for November came in at 2,300,000, a decline of 787,000 coins compared to 3,087,000 in the previous month.  The lower sales figures for November do not reflect a drop in demand for silver bullion coins but rather the opposite due to the fact that the U.S. Mint has run out of coins due to unprecedented demand.

This same shortage situation existed last year when the Mint ran out of silver bullion coins in mid December  with orders for the new 2013 silver bullion coins not being accepted until January 7, 2013.  This situation resulted in a three week period during which the American Eagle silver bullion coins were simply not available.

The period of time during which silver bullion coins will be unavailable from December 2013 to January 2014 will be even longer than last year.

peace dollar

According to coinupdate.com silver bullion coins will not be available for investor purchase for over a month and supplies will be rationed when available.

The United States Mint recently provided authorized purchasers with information on year end ordering procedures and the availability of 2014-dated releases for the American Eagle and American Buffalo bullion programs. Based on the details provided, it seems that the American Silver Eagle bullion coins will experience roughly one month of unavailability between the final allocation of 2013-dated coins and the release of the first 2014-dated coins.

The situation for American Silver Eagle bullion coins differs from the prior year. Authorized purchasers will be offered the last weekly allocation of 2013-dated coins on Monday, December 9, 2013. With demand continuing to run ahead of the available supplies, the allocation will likely be quickly depleted.

The 2014-dated Silver Eagle bullion coins will not be available to order until Monday, January 13, 2014. The initial release will be subject to the US Mint’s allocation program, which rations supplies amongst the authorized purchasers.

With such a severe shortage of silver bullion coins, expect buyer premiums to increase significantly over the next two months.

Gold and Silver Are in Long Term Uptrends

mount-rushmore1By: GE Christenson

The BIG Perspective: Examine the following “Point & Figure” chart from Ron Rosen. This type of chart plots price on the “y” axis while the “x” axis shows time but without uniform distance between years. The long term trend has been up since 1970 and 2001, while the intermediate trend has been down for the past 26 months.

Gold and silver will outlast hope, change, paper money, treasury debt, and political promises. Most people do not and will not understand why!

The following are logarithmic charts of the official U.S. national debt, gold, silver, and crude oil for the past three to four decades.

Clearly the long term trends are up. Why?

  • A debt based paper currency system must expand to survive!
  • The Fed needs an increasing money supply and more debt.
  • Congress and the administration aggressively spend money, borrow money, and increase the national debt. It will take a real crisis to change this – much worse than a phony debt ceiling crisis.
  • The financial industry wants to churn more paper assets, debt, derivatives, and volatility to increase their profits.

The inevitable conclusion is that, over the long term, money supply, debt, and prices will increase until there is a systemic reset or crash. What will endure throughout the inevitable inflation, deflation, and crash? Gold and silver will endure. Paper assets are only as good as the collateral backing them, and many of those assets could vaporize in a systemic reset. Gold and silver will survive and maintain their value, while the dollar and Treasury Debt may lose a good portion of their value and purchasing power.

maple-leaf-442x450

Hope & Change

Hope is not a good basis for an investment plan. Hope is not a viable foundation for a political philosophy or for the actions of a government. Hope will not pay the bills, reduce the debt, or return sanity to an out-of-control spending process.

Ask yourself how well these are working:

  • We spent the rent money on lottery tickets and booze. We hope something good happens soon.
  • We spent a few $Trillion on useless wars in the middle-east. We hope it helped.
  • We spent $17,000,000,000,000 more than our revenue. We hope it is not a problem.
  • We sold or “leased” much of our accumulated gold and sent it to China. We hope nobody noticed and that it will not matter.
  • We hope we don’t have another stock market or bond market crash.
  • We hope to increase taxes and reduce benefits while increasing consumer prices and we hope to keep the people happy and voting for the incumbents. (This is also change.)
  • We hope to actually pass a budget real soon. (Congress has not passed a budget in the past five years. Did anyone notice or care?)
  • We hope to reduce the deficit real soon.
  • We hope the Federal Reserve and the politicians will make it all better.
  • We hope that hope and change will begin to work real soon.

As for “CHANGE” – it can be positive or negative. Not all change is good. We “HOPED” for better government and we received Obamacare. Was that a positive change?

Gee, we hope that the 10 Million or so people whose insurance plans will be cancelled and who will be forced to purchase new health insurance policies at much higher rates are okay with the change, increased deductibles and the increased costs. We hope they don’t get upset or angry or think someone lied to them.

Liberty-Eagle
Gold and Silver!

Dr. Phil says that the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior. Using that thought it seems clear that:

  • The official national debt will continue to exponentially increase like it has for more than four decades.
  • The dollar will continue to decline in purchasing power like it has for the past 100 years.
  • Gold and silver will continue to (erratically) increase in price like they have for the past 40 years.
  • Gold and silver will hold their value and purchasing power like they have for 5,000 years.
  • Government deficit spending and borrowing will continue.
  • There will be another budget crisis, and another, and another.
  • Politicians will talk, make promises, and become much wealthier while the middle and lower classes find their expenses increasing far more rapidly than their incomes. We will re-elect those politicians.
  • Hope and change will continue to produce what they have so far – nothing but more debt.

Gold and silver will outlast hope, change, paper money, treasury debt, and political promises. Most people do not and will not understand why!
So, place your bets!

  • Paper currency or gold and silver.
  • Debt based paper assets or real money – gold and silver.
  • Political promises or something of lasting value.
  • Futures contracts on a corrupt exchange or land.
  • Credit card debt or stacked silver in a safe.
  • Social security income in a decade or gold in hand now.
  • Obamacare or good health.
  • Nutritionally empty fast food or healthy nutritious food.
  • Artificial and phony or real and valuable.
  • Reality television or the Holy Bible.

Most people will stick with what they know – paper currency, debt based paper assets, political promises, hope and change, and reality television. The choice is yours, but you will have a better financial future and more peace of mind if you invest in something real and valuable.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

U.S. Mint Silver Bullion Coin Sales Hit Record High

proof-silver-eagleAs discussed in a previous post, sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins were on track to post record sales volume in 2013.  It’s now official – sales of U.S. Mint silver bullion coins surged past the old record set in 2011 and are track to hit a record high of 45 million ounces in 2013.

According to the U.S. Mint year to date sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins total 40,175,000.  The previous record was set in 2011 when sales of the silver bullion coins came in at 39,868,500.  Based on monthly sales volume, the U.S. Mint might sell an additional 5 million coins by year end.

The American public loves the American Eagle silver bullion coins and can’t seem to get enough of them.  After an exuberant rise to almost $50 per ounce during 2011 silver has corrected in price to the low $20’s.  Although the decline in silver has elicited numerous bearish commentary in the mainstream press, long term investors seem to be doubling down as the price of silver price has become irresistibly cheap.  Yearly sales of the silver bullion coins have increased by almost 500% since 2008.

Total yearly sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins are shown in the chart below with the 2013 total as of November 12, 2013.

2013-W Proof Silver Eagle

proof-silver-eagle

In addition to the silver bullion coins the U.S. Mint produces a proof silver eagle coin.  According to the Mint News Blog the 2013-W Proof silver Eagle has already sold out and 2013 is the third year in a row that this popular product has sold out well before year end.

Sales for the 2013 Proof Silver Eagle originally began at the US Mint on January 24, 3013. Opening orders were slower compared to the prior two years, however the pace of orders remained brisk throughout the year. The coin typically represented one of the US Mint’s top sellers on the weekly sales reports.

Recently, weekly sales had spiked, with 29,613 units orders in the previous reporting period and an indication of 29,025 units ordered in the week just ahead of the sell out. Sales data shows total orders at 880,030 units. This is a bit higher than recent prior years.

In 2011, the individual proof Silver Eagle had sold out on November 22 after reaching sales of 850,000. In 2012, the sell out had occurred on November 13 when sales had reached 819,217.

The American Eagle silver bullion coins cannot be purchased by individuals directly from the U.S Mint.  The coins are sold only to the Mint’s network of authorized purchasers who buy the coins in bulk based on the market value of silver and a markup by the U.S. Mint.  The authorized purchasers sell the silver coins to coin dealers, other bullion dealers and the public.  The Mint’s rationale for using authorized purchasers is that this method makes the coins widely available to the public with reasonable transaction costs.

1881-CC-Morgan-Dollar

The U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins remain a popular method of building wealth with periodic purchases.  The American public can’t seem to get enough of the bullion coins and the desperate actions of global central banks to keep the financial system afloat with a deluge of paper money can only cause more financial anxiety and more silver purchases going forward.

US Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Decline in September

silver, goldDemand for American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins remained sluggish in September according to the latest figures from the U.S. Mint.

Sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coin totaled 13,000 ounces in September, off a considerable 77% from the previous year but up 13% from last month.  Sales of the gold bullion coin in August were only 11,500 ounces, the lowest monthly sales of the year.

The slowdown in gold coin sales marks a turnaround from the beginning of the year when demand for physical gold seemed insatiable.  April sales of the American Eagle gold coins came in at 209,500 ounces which was the largest sales month since December 2009 when 231,500 ounces were sold.

Despite the frenzy of money printing by banks around the world, gold bullion coin sales have declined every year since 2009 as the financial system stabilized.  Gold sales soared during the financial panic in 2009 to an all time high as nervous buyers sought safe haven in gold.

Yearly sales of the gold bullion coins are shown below.  The 2013 total is through September 3o.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins declined for the second month in a row.  During September the U.S. Mint sold 3,013,000 silver coins, down 7.4% from last year and down 16.9% from August.

Despite the soft sales in September, demand for the silver bullion coins has been robust this year.  If sales continue at the 3 million coins per month rate through year end, 2013 will turn out to be a record sales year with annual estimated silver bullion coin sales of 45 million.

Sales of the American Eagle silver bullion coins by year are shown below.  The 2013 sales total is through September 30.

 

Silver Soars On Strong Physical Demand and Bargain Prices

proof-silver-eagle3There is no denying that it has been a really tough year for silver investors with silver dropping from $32.23 in January to a yearly low of $18.61 in June.  Is the silver price correction finally over?  The ridiculously low price of silver has resulted in a strong surge of demand worldwide and the price of silver has soared by 23% since the June low.

No one knows if the three year bear market in silver is finally over but investors seem to have made up their minds that the current price of silver is at give away levels.  The World Gold Council reported last week that bar and coin purchases rose to record levels last quarter.  Silver demand in India and China remains very strong and U.S. investors have been buying American Eagle silver bullion coins at a record pace.

Sales by the U.S. Mint of the American Eagle silver bullion coin may hit an all time record this year based on year to date sales data.  The all time record year for sales of the silver bullion coins was in 2011 when the Mint sold almost 40 million one ounce coins.

Sales of the silver bullion coins since 2000 are shown below with sales for 2013 as of July 31st.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins
YEAR OUNCES SOLD
2000    9,133,000
2001    8,827,500
2002   10,475,500
2003    9,153,500
2004    9,617,000
2005   8,405,000
2006   10,021,000
2007    9,887,000
2008   19,583,500
2009   28,766,500
2010   34,662,500
2011   39,868,500
2012   33,742,500
2013   29,450,000

TOTAL 261,593,000

With sales of almost 30 million coins through July, annualized sales based on monthly sales to date would result in a record smashing year with investors purchasing over 50 million American Eagle silver bullion coins.  With governments worldwide printing money to prop up a financial system overwhelmed by debt it’s probably a very safe bet that the price of silver will continue to increase in price.

Since 2000 investors have bought over a quarter of a billion silver eagle bullion coins with a current estimated value of over $5.7 billion.  The U.S. Mint American Eagle bullion coin program has been one of the most successful mint products ever produced.

Gold and Silver Are the Only Safe Assets In a Dangerously Unstable Financial System

Physical-GoldBy: GE Christenson

Consider these thoughts on “the great lie,” our strange world, its unstable financial system, overwhelming debt, exponential growth, inevitable collapse, fractional reserve banking, counterparty risk, and gold – from highly intelligent individuals who think beyond the traditional:

From Karl Denninger: Detroit: The Shape Of Things To Come

“If you make political promises that can only be met through increased tax rates, now or in the future, you begin the process of slitting your own throat. That outcome is inevitable when you agree to political promises that have escalating expenses over time as pensions, medical benefits, salary “step” increases, bond issues that have a payment schedule longer than the useful life of the asset bought and similar.

There is no way out of this box other than to repudiate those promises.”

From Richard Russell: (subscription service)

“The compounding debt is the monster that is eating the U.S. The only way out is to renege on the debt or try to pay it off with inflation or hyperinflation. The bull market in bonds is over. From now on, we are dealing with a bear market in bonds, at which time natural forces will drive bonds down, and as bonds fall, interest rates will rise.”

“It’s taken almost two centuries for bankers to pull the wool over Americans’ eyes, but today you and I are working for intrinsically worthless paper that can be created by bureaucrats – created without sweat, without creative ability, without work, without anything but a decision by the Federal Reserve.

This is the disease at the base of today’s monetary system. And like a cancer, it will spread until the system ultimately falls apart. This is the tragedy of the great lie. The great lie is that fiat paper represents a store of value, money of lasting wealth.”

From Bill Bonner: Why Gold is the Only Money that Works

“When you have a system based on credit, rather than bullion, deals are never completely done. Instead, everything depends on the good faith and good judgment of counterparties – including everybody’s No. 1 counterparty: the US government. Its bills, notes and bonds are the foundation of the money system. But they are nothing more than promises – debt instruments issued by the world’s biggest debtor.

A credit system cannot last in the modern world. Because, as the volume of credit rises, the creditworthiness of the issuers declines. The more they owe, the less able they are to pay.”

“Naturally, everybody loves a credit system… until the credits go bad. Then they wish they had a little more of the other kind of money. Wise governments, if there are any, take no chances. They may feed the paper money to the people. But they hold onto gold for themselves. Throughout history, the most powerful governments were those with the most gold.”

But suppose much of the government and central bank gold is gone. As Eric Sprott concluded, after considerable research,

“Our analysis of the physical gold market shows that central banks have most likely been a massive unreported supplier of physical gold, and strongly implies that their gold reserves are negligible today.”

It seems likely that the western governments and central banks have sold (or leased to a bullion bank who sold it to a buyer in China, India, Hong Kong, or the middle-east) most of their gold. Germany recently requested the return of their gold from the Federal Reserve Bank in New York but was told they would have to wait seven years to get a portion (only 300 tons) of it. It is clear there is more to the story – and the obvious conclusion is that the Federal Reserve Bank can’t easily return what it no longer possesses. In non-banking circles, this could be called theft or embezzlement, but in the banking world it is called “leasing” or rehypothecation, and it is legal.

Bill Bonner:

“But if they (central banks) have sold such massive quantities over the last 10 years, how much do they have left? Maybe not much.

Which wouldn’t be surprising. Western central banks are committed to their credit-money system. They intend to stick with it. And they know that unraveling this unruly skein of credit would be extremely painful.

Selling gold into the bull market of the last 12 years probably seemed like a very smart move. We’ll see how smart it was later, when the credit-based money system blows up.”

But, I ask you, who formerly owned the gold, and who is quietly amassing a vast horde of gold to increase global influence in the future? This process of selling gold and converting it to paper promises has been occurring (so the evidence indicates) for several decades and appears to be working well for now. The “game” appears to be:

Asian countries and the middle-east accumulate more gold and unload their dollars.

The bullion banks borrow gold from the central banks, sell the gold, and earn interest.

The central banks claim they own the gold, even though much of it is almost certainly gone.

The gold sales support the value of the dollar so the US government benefits.

Consumers in the US pay for imports with dollars that are still relatively strong, although when the dollar weakens and gasoline costs $10, the “game” won’t look so attractive.

Conclusions

Politicians and bankers work together to benefit themselves at the expense of the people actually producing something of value. Politicians increase their power and influence by spending ever-increasing amounts of paper currencies. The bankers enable the process by creating the paper currencies (from nothing), loaning those newly created dollars, euros, yen, and pounds to the politicians, governments, and businesses, and collecting interest. This process succeeds until the debts must be paid. Then:

Borrow more paper currencies, extend and pretend, lie and deny, etc.

Inflate or die! QE4-ever!

Raise taxes and fees. (Hope the parasites don’t kill the host.)

Encourage the Fed to create enough new currency to bail out the bankers and prevent a deflationary collapse (the other option besides horrific inflation).

Let consumer price inflation accelerate. $10.00 gasoline anyone?

When the mathematics doesn’t work, when the plan is lame, when the debts must be paid, when the sins of the past must be acknowledged and corrected, there are few choices remaining.

Review the cogent thoughts from The Burning Platform, Karl Denninger, Richard Russell, and Bill Bonner. Then ask yourself:

Do you believe debt and interest payments can increase forever?

Do you believe that either an inflationary or deflationary collapse (in some form) is inevitable?

Do you believe that unbacked paper currencies represent a store of value or a wasting asset? (Do you remember gasoline at $0.19 per gallon?)

Do you trust the lasting value of gold more than the integrity of a politician’s promise?

Do you believe that the US government and the Federal Reserve have all the gold they claim (not audited since the 1950s), when it benefits both the US government and the Fed to surreptitiously “lease” gold (sell it into the market)?

Do you believe that Russia, China, the Arab countries, Hong Kong, India, and many other countries are making a wise choice by trading dollars for gold?

Do you believe that your food and energy expenses will remain constant or substantially increase in the next four years?

Do you believe congress will balance the budget and that world peace is coming?

Do you believe and understand counterparty risk?

Do you believe the existing economic system will meet your needs in the future?

Having considered your beliefs, do you think it would be wise to convert some of your paper assets to real gold and silver? If so, I encourage you to purchase gold and silver from a reputable dealer and store them safely outside the banking system.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

Silver Market Incredibly Oversold – Technicals Flashing Buy Signal

silverBy: GE Christenson

For the umpteenth time (actually the 3rd since June 2012), silver has given a buy signal according to my reading of the technical indicators.

Problem: How valuable is technical analysis (moving averages, oscillators, over-sold conditions, etc.) when the silver and gold markets are dominated by computers (High Frequency Trading – HFT) and not human beings?

GATA had this to say: “Technical analysis of a manipulated market like gold has been tedious nonsense for years, but these days, with virtually infinite paper dropped on the gold futures market at illiquid times to drive the price down even as the physical market remains strong, technical analysis has become insulting.

The only analysis worth anything anymore is the identification of the source of all the paper.

The suspects are obvious — Western central banks.”

Gold and silver bottomed in June of 2012, dollar printing moved into high-gear, and the metals “should” have rallied from there. Instead, they did a brief rally and fell to extraordinary lows in April 2013 and even lower lows in June of 2013.

How Extraordinary?

Technical indicators are still somewhat valid (in my opinion) at indicating how much a market is over-bought or over-sold, even if those indicators are less useful (thanks to HFT) at indicating future moves and timing.

Silver RSI (Relative Strength Indicator – 14 period): On a weekly basis, it is the lowest in 40 years of data and nearly that low on a daily basis. This timing indicator suggests that silver is extremely over-sold on both a daily and weekly basis. Gold is similarly oversold.

Gold stocks % bullish Index ($DPGBM): This indicates the % of gold stocks above their 200 day moving average. It currently ranks at zero – gold stocks have been hammered. This indicates gold stocks are very low and hopefully ready to rally. Sentiment toward gold among independent financial advisors, as reported by The Hulbert Financial Digest, is at all-time lows. Prices usually rebound after such lows in sentiment.

COT Net long: The Commitment of Traders data provided by the CFTC indicates the long and short positions of the non-commercials and commercials. Yes, I know, the data is somewhat suspect, but it still has value. Take the net of non-commercial longs less shorts and the net of commercial longs less shorts. Then subtract the net commercial longs from the net non-commercial longs. This difference correlates quite well over a long period of time with the price of silver. When the net long difference (as described above) is low, silver is low and due to rally. As of Friday, June 28, 2013 that net long difference was the LOWEST since the beginning of my data in January 2001 and probably for several decades. This indicates that the large bullion banks (JPM, etc.) are in a position to profit from a rally in the silver (and gold) markets.

The weekly TDI – Trade Signal Line (a technical oscillator) for silver as of June 28, 2013 registered the lowest reading since my data began in 1974. On a daily basis, the April reading was the lowest since 1980, and the June low was only slightly higher. Silver is ready to rally.
My risk/reward index is a weighted blend of COT data, moving averages, relative strength timing oscillators, and disparity between the current price and a long-term moving average. This weekly index has been quite accurate at indicating bottoms in the silver market. What it cannot do is indicate if a lower low is coming in another few months or if the current low is likely to indicate a multi-year bottom. This indicator is currently the most oversold since the beginning of my data in January 2001 and is even more oversold than at the bottom after the 2008 crash in the silver market. The indicator is currently suggesting a major rally is ahead for the silver market – perhaps a multi-year continuation of the bull market. Please examine the graph of silver prices and this risk/reward index.
silver-risk-reward-june

There are many other technical indicators, oscillators, and sentiment measures that suggest a similar story. For all practical purposes, it appears that the large bullion banks and traders (the JPMs, etc.) are now net long in gold and probably net long in silver. The stage is set for a JPM managed rally to take advantage of their net long position, having dumped their shorts in the last two engineered declines in gold and silver.

However, it is possible that their agenda is to generate further support for the dollar and additional declines in gold and silver. With essentially unlimited financial backing, their ability to create and sell huge quantities of PAPER silver and gold and a “free pass” from the regulators, they are the elephants in the room, and they can overwhelm technical indicators, oversold conditions, and sentiment if they so choose. That would not be the case if we had an honest physical market where a company has to have physical product to sell it.

Conclusio

  • The stage is set for the large bullion banks to profit from a rally. Expect a rally.
  • The silver and gold markets are deeply oversold and sentiment in both markets is very low. Are silver and gold investors currently disgusted and disappointed or happy and excited? Right! Rallies occur when practically everyone is disappointed, disgusted, or frightened out of the market. It was the same with the S&P (March 2009, October 1987) and crude oil (December 2008) and gold (October 2008).
  • Now is a time to buy gold and silver, not sell them.
  • Listen to the national media and consider doing the opposite.
  • Silver and gold sentiment and indicators are at multi-year, multi-decade, or all-time lows. The indicators and sentiment suggest the high probability of a substantial rally ahead.
  • The cash markets are strong. Individuals and central banks are buying gold and silver in Russia, China, India, and other Asian countries. Individuals who see the big picture are also buying in Europe and the US.

Does a certificate of deposit paying 1%, gold, or silver look more safe and rewarding at this point in time?

Read:
Silver Cycles: What Next?
Back to Basics – Gold, Silver, and the Economy

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

Will Silver Plunge Below $15 or Rally Back Over $50?

1881-CC-Morgan-DollarBy: GE Christenson

Silver prices peaked in April 2011 and dropped about 60% over the next 25 months. Sentiment by almost any measure is currently terrible. Few are interested in silver; most have lost money (on paper) if they bought in the last two and one half years, and the emotional pain seems considerable. It reminds me of the years after the NASDAQ crash in 2000.

So will silver drop under $15 or rally back above $50?

To help answer that question, I examined the chart of silver for the last 25 years and identified several long-term cycles. Then I constructed a spreadsheet that attempted to model the price of weekly silver based on those cycles and a few assumptions.

Assumptions

  • Use only long-term cycles – a year or longer.
  • The weight assigned to each cycle is approximately proportional to its length. A 200-week cycle should be approximately twice as heavily weighted as a 100-week cycle.
  • This is NOT a trading vehicle but a long-term indication of reasonable price projections based on past relationships. Those past relationships may or may not continue, even if they have been valid for over 20 years.
  • Keep it simple. Do not over-complicate the model or aggressively “curve-fit” it.
  • Prices are assumed to rise more slowly than they fall, so 62% of the cycle is related to the rising portion of the cycle, and 38% of the cycle is related to the falling portion of the cycle.

Data

Low-to-Low cycles: 65 weeks, 72 weeks, and 234 weeks
High-to-High cycles: 102 weeks
Exponential growth: 1/1/1990 – 6/30/2002: no growth – 0.0%/year
6/30/2002 – present: 21% per year, calculated weekly

Process

Find the beginning dates (lows) for the 65, 72, and 234 week cycles, and assign those beginning dates an index value of -1.0. Proportionally increase those index values from -1.0 to +1.0, and then reduce those index values from +1.0 to – 1.0, and repeat for each low-to-low cycle. Use the beginning index value on the 102-week high to high cycle as + 1.0. Extend the proportional increases on all time cycles from -1.0 to + 1.0 so that period takes 62% of the cycle length.

Assign each cycle a weight approximately proportional to the cycle length. Use a beginning value and calculate the exponential increase (0% or 21% per year) for each week, and then add or subtract the percentage changes for each weekly time cycle. Adjust the cycle index weights to obtain the best visual fit on a graph of actual silver prices versus the calculated price of silver.

What Could Go Wrong?

  • The exponential increase might not continue from 2013 forward. I doubt it, but it is possible.
  • The cycles, although relevant for over 20 years, might be less relevant from 2013 forward.
  • The calculated price was “curve-fit” to the actual prices, and that “curve-fit” result might be less accurate from 2013 forward.

Results

Statistical correlation over the last 20 years is about 0.95. The calculated silver price is generally consistent with the actual silver price, even though occasional large variations are clearly evident.

Click on image to enlarge.

Highlights

Calculated low: 2/4/05 at $4.96
Actual low: 5/7/04 at $5.60

Calculated high: 3/17/06 at $13.33
Actual high: 5/12/06 at $14.24

Calculated high: 5/4/07 at $18.13
Actual high: 3/14/08 at $20.66

Calculated low: 12/12/08 at $8.15
Actual low: 10/24/08 at $9.30

Calculated high: 3/2/12 at $42.98
Actual high: 4/29/11 at $48.59

Calculated low: 5/10/13 at $23.32
Actual low: 5/17/13 at $22.25 (actual weekly low, so far)

The Future

This simple model, which uses only four cycles and an exponential increase, indicates that a low in the silver price was expected approximately February – July 2013 and that the next high is expected approximately Mar – October 2014 in the $50 – $60 range. Further, the model suggests that a silver price of $90 – $110 is possible in the September 2015 – March 2016 time period.

Caveats!

There are many. This is not a prediction, it is simply a projection based on the entirely reasonable, but possibly incorrect, assumption that silver prices will continue to rise about 20% per year, on average, and that these four cycles will push actual prices well above and below that exponential growth trend.

Why will silver prices continue to increase? Our current monetary system depends upon an exponentially increasing debt and money supply. It seems likely that the US government will continue to run massive budget deficits and thereby increase total debt. In addition, the central banks of Japan, the EU, and the US will continue to monetize debt and increase the money supply to promote asset inflation and to overwhelm the deflationary forces in their respective economies. Silver supply increases slowly, the demand increases much more rapidly, while each Dollar, Euro, & Yen purchase less, on average, each year. It seems quite reasonable to expect that silver (and gold) prices will increase substantially from their current low level. Read: Silver – A Bipolar Roller Coaster.

Timing

The model was basically correct (over the last decade) on timing and price with some large variations. Clearly there are more factors driving the price of silver than four simple cycles. Those political, emotional, and economic factors will push the price higher or lower, sooner or later, than the model indicates. Regardless, it has some value indicating the approximate price and timing for long-term highs and lows in the price of silver.

Use it while appreciating its limitations. Read: Back To Basics: Gold, Silver, and the Economy.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

Should Silver Investors Go “All In”?

Silver BarsBy:  GE Christenson

Unfortunately, there is not, that I can see, a simple pattern that predicts the next high or low in the price of silver. Markets seldom make it that easy. However, there are patterns that provide valuable information to help illuminate the “big picture” perspective of where the current price of silver lies in the up-down-up-down cycle of prices.

Process

  • Examine monthly prices since 1972 – over 40 years. Use monthly prices to see only the “big picture” with important lows and highs.
  • List the dates for important lows, and determine the number of months between adjacent lows.
  • Look for simple patterns.
  • Group One Lows: 8/77, 6/82, 5/86, 2/91, 3/95, 8/98, 5/04, 10/08, 4/13. They are separated by the following number of months: 58, 47, 57, 49, 41, 69, 53, 54. (average 53.5)
  • Group Two Lows: 2/93, 7/97, 11/01, and they are separated by 53 and 52 months.

Significant lows are separated by approximately 4.5 years, with rather wide variations. I doubt you can trade this; but, if you are investing for the long term, this indicates that buying aggressively approximately every four to five years should work out fairly well. April 2013 looks like it is at or near a multi-year low.

Big Picture Summary

    • Governments spend in excess of their revenues and create ever-increasing debts.
    • Central banks create the digital to keep the debt machines running, thereby increasing the supply and inevitably increasing prices.
    • Do you remember gasoline at $0.15 along with other goods and services at similarly “unbelievable” prices? Those days disappeared with the huge increase in the number of dollars in circulation, particularly after Nixon severed the link between gold and the dollar in August 1971.
    • Silver prices fall until there are few sellers left, rise until there are few buyers remaining, and repeat the cycle.
    • Each low to high to low cycle takes roughly 4.5 years. At price peaks, the silver bulls are euphoric, while they are depressed and worried at the lows.
  • Ask yourself, “Does now feel like a low or a high in the silver price?”
  • About 4.5 years ago there was an important low in the silver price – October 2008.
  • About 4.5 years before that, there was another important low in the silver price – May 2004.
  • Highs follow lows.

For additional information, read Silver – Keep it Simple! and Silver – A Bipolar Roller Coaster.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor