April 25, 2024

Gold Advances On Week, Silver Retreats As Financial Crisis II Looms

Gold, platinum and palladium all advanced on the week while silver gave up most of the previous week’s gains.

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold gained $7 on the week to $1,540.00 while silver pulled back by $2.50 to $35.19.   Platinum moved up by $21 to $1,807.00 and palladium gained $13 to $770.00.  After the London close, prices of precious metals moved up strongly in New York trading, especially silver, which last traded at $36.39, up $1.20 from the earlier London closing price.

Financial markets worldwide pulled back sharply as the stock traders finally began to acknowledge the fragility of the world’s paper back financial system.  Governments that have borrowed and spent trillions of dollars to stimulate economic growth and support a fragile banking system now find themselves reaching the limits of their borrowing capacity.

It is becoming obvious that the financial crisis of 2008 was just a warm up act to the real financial nightmare that is looming ahead.  Despite trillions of dollars in stimulus spending, coordinated with a money printing campaign by world central banks, the economies of the U.S. and Europe have not recovered.  Unemployment continues to grow, real estate values continue to plunge, debt levels have reached unsustainable levels and real incomes for the majority of workers continue to decline.

There are numerous events that could trigger the second financial crisis  There is no way of knowing which specific event will trigger the next crisis,  nor does it matter.  What does matter is the manner in which Financial Crisis II will be dealt with by world governments and central banks.  Unable to raise taxes or take on trillions more in borrowing, monetary authorities will exercise the last resort option of money printing on a massive scale to avoid a total collapse of the world monetary system.  The gold market is already reflecting this scenario as one of the few safe havens against paper currencies that have little intrinsic value.  When Financial Crisis II gets under way, uninformed talk of a “gold bubble” will quickly disappear as investors will buy gold at any price to preserve their wealth.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,540.00 +7.00 (+0.46%)
Silver $35.19 -2.50(-6.63%)
Platinum $1,807.00 +21.00 (+1.18%)
Palladium $770.00 +13.00 (+1.72%)

Will platinum, which has lagged the price rallies in other precious metals, start to play catch up?  According to the Wall Street Journal, due to rising production costs for platinum, a price of $2,100 per ounce is necessary to encourage increased mine production.

The historical price ratio of platinum to palladium also suggests that platinum prices could rally significantly.  The Wall Street Journal notes that when palladium reached $860 per ounce in February, the ratio was 2.15 compared to 2.12 today.  The historical average of the platinum/palladium ratio is 3.0 to 4.0, suggesting that platinum is undervalued.

 

PLATINUM - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Precious Metals Stage Impressive Rally – Are Gold Stocks Next?

As measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, precious metals staged impressive gains this week, rallying across the board.  Ongoing concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the debt limit ceiling stalemate in the U.S. and a weak dollar all contributed to continued fundamental demand for the metals.

After the London close, precious metals continued to gain in New York trading with gold at $1,537.00, silver at $38.15, platinum at $1,805.00 and palladium at $766.00.

The star of the week was silver which gained $2.89 per ounce for a gain of 8.3% on the week.  Although the correction of silver in early May was dramatic, the sharp pullback has provided long term investors with an opportunity to add to positions.  Silver fundamentals remain strong as detailed in a recent report by the Silver Institute in which it was noted that demand remained robust despite higher prices.  In addition, although higher prices has lead to increased mine exploration and production, new silver production during 2010 rose by only 2.5%.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,533.00 +42.25 (+2.83%)
Silver $37.69 +2.89(+8.30%)
Platinum $1,786.00 +19.00 (+1.08%)
Palladium $757.00 +23.00 (+3.13%)

Gold has recovered nearly all of its early May price correction and is now only $8 off its high of $1,541.00 as measured by the London PM Fix Price.  The trend in gold remains solidly bullish and any price corrections should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

GOLD - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

 

Gold stocks, many of which have trailed the returns of gold bullion, may also be viewed as attractive at this point. As measured by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),  gold stocks are moving up after making multiple bottoms at the $55 support level.

 

GDX - COURTESY YAHOO FINANCE

Many of the gold mining stocks are selling at steep discounts to their gold reserves and represent solid values. Earlier this week, Kinross Gold, which sells at the equivalent of $250 per ounce, was a featured story. Value investor David Steinberg of DLS Capital Management, has a price target on Kinross of $27 per share. Kinross closed today at $16.11.

Precious Metals Little Changed On Week While Investors Ponder Government Defaults

Precious metal prices traded in a narrow range this week.  As measured by the closing London Fix Price, gold, platinum and silver declined slightly while palladium gained $16 per ounce.

After the London close, prices of precious metals rose across the board in New York afternoon trading.  Gold closed at $1,514.50 up $19.70, silver at $35.26 up $.12, platinum at $1,775 up $8 and palladium at $739 up $8.   Buying in the precious metals may have been prompted by late day worries over the downgrade of Greek debt by Fitch Ratings as well as concerns over the worsening state of public finances in Spain, Portugal and Italy.

Yields of 25% on short term debt Greek debt imply that the markets are are pricing in a very high probability of default by Greece.  What markets do not seem to have priced in is the contagion risk of Greek default and what impact that would have on investor confidence, world financial markets and the global banking system.

Meanwhile the U.S. debt crisis continues to brew as the debt ceiling limit was reached with no indication of a resolution by Congress.  If the past is any guide, Congress will let the debt bomb/deficit crisis simmer until the last minute when the debt ceiling will be raised yet again under the guise of “future fiscal restraint” and the deficit spending and borrowing will continue as usual.

Ignoring the eroding financial condition of the U.S. today only ensures that the inevitable financial crisis will be more devastating than one might chose to contemplate.  The timing may be uncertain but the outcome is not.

The American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX) included a chart in one of its latest email newsletters that depicts the gap between the growth of  U.S. GDP and debt.  The chart graphically illustrates the extent to which the U.S. has been living beyond its means and using trillions in deficit financing to do so.

DEBT VS GDP - COURTESY APMEX

APMEX also notes that  “If there is no resolution (of the budget ceiling) by August 2nd, there could be disastrous ramifications for the U.S. and the global economy. The U.S. will be in default on its promises to pay. The value of the dollar could drop dramatically.”

 

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,490.75 -15.00 (-1.00%)
Silver $34.80 -1.40(-3.87%)
Platinum $1,767.00 -7.00 (-0.39%)
Palladium $734.00 +16.00 (+2.23%)

Precious metals, silver in particular, have been undergoing corrective price action during May, but the fundamental reasons for owning precious metals grows stronger by the day.   Demand for precious metals remains strong.  The World Gold Council’s latest report shows that global demand for gold increased by 11% in the first quarter, while buying by Chinese investors reached all time highs.  The trend is still your friend in the precious metals markets and price weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to increase long term positions.

Precious Metals Prices Stumble In Wild Trading Week

Commodity and precious metal prices tumbled this week, with gold and silver prices snapping a streak of four consecutive weekly increases. Following the recent run up in prices, there had been some anticipation of a correction. In addition, there were concerns that the Fed’s announcement of the end of QE2 would result in an end to the flood of cheap money which has fueled the rise of commodities.

In the precious metals group, silver was the biggest loser with a drop of almost 30% from last Thursday’s closing London PM Fix Price.  (The London markets were closed on Friday, April 28th.)  The losses in silver far outpaced the declines in other precious metals and many place the blame squarely on the rapid fire multiple margin increases by the COMEX for trading silver futures (See How The COMEX Crashed The Silver Market).

Gold, platinum and palladium also had a tough week with respective price declines of 3.19%, 2.51% and 7.21%.

Precious Metals Prices
PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,486.50 -49.00 (-3.19%)
Silver $34.20 -14.50(-29.77%)
Platinum $1,789.00 -46.00 (-2.51%)
Palladium $721.00 -56.00 (-7.21%)

Precious metals have had previous serious declines without affecting the long term upward move in prices (see Measuring Declines From The High For Gold and Silver).  Overextended markets will correct but the fundamental forces pushing precious metal prices higher have not changed.  While dollars and other paper currencies can be produced in infinite quantity, the supply of gold, silver and commodities are finite.

Despite the Fed’s promise to stop printing money and its pledge of supporting a “strong dollar”, the dollar has had only a feeble recovery and is close to its all time lows.  The markets clearly have no confidence in Chairman Bernanke’s words and the weak dollar proves it.  Every bull market experiences temporary pullbacks and the precious metals are no exception.  Long term investors should view the latest price consolidation as another potential opportunity to increase positions.

Precious Metals Soar – Thank You Ben Bernanke

As predicted on Monday, the Federal Reserve policy meeting and subsequent press conference by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had the potential to cause an explosive move up in the precious metal markets. (see Federal Reserve May Cause Stampede Into Gold and Silver This Week)

At the conclusion of the Bernanke press conference it became clear that the Fed would maintain its policies of cheap credit and debasement of the dollar.  Subsequent economic reports showed a slowing economy, rising food and energy prices and a slowdown in consumer spending.  This was all the markets needed to hear and precious metal prices exploded upwards on the week.

Silver reached an all time high of $49.75 on Monday before pulling back on Tuesday to $44.60 and then resuming its upward streak after the Bernanke press conference.  The closing London PM Fix Price for silver settled at $48.70 on Thursday.  The London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York spot trading silver ended the week at $48.00, up from last week’s close at  $46.26.

Precious Metals Prices
Thurs PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,535.50 +31.50 (+2.09%)
Silver $48.70 +2.44(+5.27%)
Platinum $1,835.00 +23.00 (+1.27%)
Palladium $777.00 +12.00 (+1.57%)

As measured by the London PM Fix Price, gold closed Thursday at $1,535.50.  London markets were closed on Friday, but in New York trading, gold ended the day at $1,566.70, soaring $29.90.   From last week’s London Fix Price close of $1,504.00, gold exploded upwards for a gain of $62.70.

As precious metal investors racked up huge gains on the week, many were probably thinking of sending a thank you note to Ben Bernanke.  The reality is different.  Most investors, no matter how bullish they may be on precious metals, are probably diversified and do not have a 100% portfolio allocation to gold and silver.

Investor gains on precious metals, while helping to preserve wealth, may have only partially offset the wealth destruction caused by zero interest rates and falling home prices.  The majority of Americans have the bulk of their wealth tied up in their personal residence and bank accounts and  have seen major declines in their home equity and close to a zero return on savings.  Fed policies are driving more and more investors into the precious metals markets and soaring prices are proof of that.

As noted the London markets were closed on Friday, April 29.  Precious metals prices soared on Friday in New York trading with gold ending at $1,566.70, silver at $48.00, platinum at $1878.00 and palladium at $777.00.

Gold Hits All Time High and Silver Breaks $40 as Precious Metal Demand Soars

Anything but paper dollars was the theme this week as investors rushed into anything of tangible value.  Gold, silver, oil and commodities of all types have been skyrocketing since last August when the Federal Reserve announced its second round of quantitative easing.

Gold closed at an all time high of $1,469.50 as measured by the London PM Fix Price and silver hit a 31 year high closing the week at $40.22.  Some analysts cautioned that the rapid rise in gold and silver prices could lead to a pullback, but overbought markets tend to defy such logic.  Gold has decisively broken through resistance at the $1,450 level and silver looks ready to challenge the all time high of $48.70 reached in 1980.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,469.50 +51.50 (+3.63%)
Silver $40.22 +2.59 (+6.88%)
Platinum $1,803.00 +30.00 (+1.69%)
Palladium $798.00 +26.00 (+3.37%)

The surge in precious metals prices reflects the obvious conclusion that developed nations of the world are on a trajectory with a potentially devastating debt crisis.  The budget antics in Washington make it clear to any impartial observer that spending will not be cut and the parabolic growth of debt will continue.  No one knows how the looming debt crisis will ultimately play out for the Nation, but one certain outcome is that the dollar’s purchasing power is likely to diminish greatly (see Ron Paul Talks About Horrendous Currency Debasement).

Gold rose by $51.50 on the week and is up over $300 per ounce over the past year.

GOLD - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Silver has been the standout performer over the past year, increasing by over 122% since last August.  This week was no exception with silver sprinting past the $40 mark and gaining 6.9% on the week. Despite the large increase in the price of one ounce of silver, the Silver Institute reports that both investment and fabrication demand soared last year.  During 2010, world investment demand for silver increased by 40% and fabrication demand (which accounts for 83% of total silver demand) rose by 13%.

Platinum and palladium also rose on the week, recouping the price correction experienced after the Japanese earthquake.  Platinum rose by $30 on the week to $1,803 while palladium rose by $26 to $798.

Gold and Silver Prices Push To New Highs, Gold Silver Ratio Drops To 28 Year Low

Gold and silver prices, as measured by the London PM Fix Price, moved to new highs on the week.

Gold, as measured by the closing London PM Fix Price, gained $16 per ounce on the week and hit an all time high of $1,447 on Thursday.  After soaring 30% last year, investors still have plenty of reasons to allocate part of their portfolio to precious metals.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,436.00 +16.00 (+1.13%)
Silver $37.68 +2.53 (+7.20%)
Platinum $1,752.00 +32.00 (+1.86%)
Palladium $754.00 +27.00 (+3.71%)

Silver was once again the standout performer among the precious metals, gaining $2.53 per ounce on the week.  The price of silver has now risen by over 10% in the past two weeks and is up from a yearly low of $27 in late January.  Silver has far outpaced the gains in gold, which has resulted in a decline in the gold/silver ratio to 38, which is the lowest since late 1983.  A return to the long term historical gold/silver ratio would result in silver prices approaching $100 per ounce.

SILVER - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

The surge in silver prices caused the CME to increase margin requirements on silver futures, which contributed to a pullback in prices on Thursday.  The move by the CME was seen by some as a manipulation tactic to bring down the price of silver, but increased margin requirements are common when prices are rapidly increasing.  Small and underfunded speculators may have to liquidate, but in the long term silver will merely move from weak hands to strong hands.  Increased margin requirements on highly leveraged positions can produce a short term sell off, but it does nothing to change long term fundamentals.

Platinum and palladium, which both lost over 3% last week, gained on the week as fears of reduced industrial demand were eased by estimates of the huge reconstruction cost in Japan.  The rebuilding of Japan is likely to result in higher prices for all types of commodities and an increased rate of global inflation.

Gold and Silver Prices Gain on Week

As measured by the London PM Fix price, gold and silver prices gained on the week after declining approximately 1% each in the previous week.  Gold gained $8.50 per ounce on the week to $1,420.00.  Silver was the stand out gainer on the week with a 3% or $1.05 per ounce gain.   As the situation in Japan and Libya stabilized somewhat, the recent panic selling in financial markets subsided as bargain hunters moved in, although in late trading, stocks gave up much of their gains.  Gold and silver also pulled back slightly in New York trading with gold at $1417.80 and silver at $35.10.

As market analysts worried about the potential for slower economic growth due to the disaster in Japan, classic industrial metals saw further price erosion after significant losses in the prior week.  Platinum fell by $57 on  the week and palladium dropped by $27.  Over the past two weeks, platinum has declined by $108 or over 6% while palladium was off $84 for over a 10% loss.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,420.00 +8.50 (+0.60%)
Silver $35.15 +1.05 (+3.08%)
Platinum $1,720.00 -57.00 (-3.21%)
Palladium $727.00 -27.00 (-3.58%

As discussed last week , the fundamental forces propelling gold higher remain intact.  The devastation in Japan will require massive amounts of additional borrowing by a government already reaching the limits of its borrowing ability.  Expect Japan to follow the policy of the Federal Reserve with massive amounts of quantitative easing.   The currencies of Japan, Europe and the United States all face a loss of real purchasing value as governments engage in money printing to meet spending and borrowing needs that have spiraled out of control.

The toxic combination of  low economic growth, weak personal incomes and public resistance to additional tax increases have left governments with no other choice than to engage in massive expansion of the public debt.  As constraints on governments’ borrowing ability have grown, the last resort option of money printing will continue to result in the debasement  of currencies.  Increases in the price of precious metals have no upside limit under this scenario.

Silver remains the primary investment choice of many as the metal reasserts itself in relationship to the price of gold.  If the very long term historical gold silver ratio reasserts itself as many expect, the price of silver could easily close in on the $100 per ounce level.

SLV - Courtesy yahoo finance

Perth Mint Introduces Australian Platypus Platinum Bullion Coins

On March 1, 2011, the Perth Mint of Australia introduced a new platinum investment coin to complement the gold and silver offerings of their official bullion program. The Perth Mint has not offered a platinum investment coin since the withdrawal of the Platinum Koala in 2000, however they do produce certain platinum numismatic coins.

The Australian Platinum Platypus contains one troy ounce of 99.95% platinum. The design features the native aquatic mammal diving beneath the water. Above the scene is the inscription “Australian Platypus” with the date of issue, bullion weight, and purity indicated below. The other side of the coin features a portrait of Elizabeth II with the legal tender face value of “100 Dollars”.

The current market price of platinum is $1,835 per troy ounce. Last year the price of platinum rose by 18.08%, under performing gold, silver, and palladium. For the year to date, platinum has risen about 6%. This compares to gains of 1.24% for gold, 15.25% for silver, and 1.77% for palladium.

A maximum of 30,000 Platinum Playpus coins will be issued by the Perth Mint during 2011. All future annual releases will carry the same limit.

Other world mints that offer platinum bullion coins include the Royal Canadian Mint with their Platinum Maple Leaf offering. In the past, the United States Mint has American Platinum Eagle bullion coins, however these have not been issued since 2008. Initially, production was halted in an effort to deal with surging demand for gold and silver bullion coins.

Gold and Silver Prices Higher as Platinum and Palladium Sell Off

As turmoil reigned in the Middle East and worries mounted over the reduction of oil supplies, gold and silver proved their safe haven status as both moved higher in price.

After a very solid gain of $1.94 per ounce last week, silver continued its upward move with another gain of $.60.  The closing London Fix Price for silver was $32.54 for a gain of 1.88% on the week.   The normal price consolidation and pullback in silver that extended from the beginning of the year into the end of January was the setup for a solid breakout into new highs.  Silver has now advanced over 20% from the lows of January.

SILVER - COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM

Besides the safe haven/currency alternative lure of silver, the fundamentals in silver are forecasting further dramatic price gains.   There have been numerous reports documenting physical shortages of silver as well as huge investment demand in the U.S., India and China.

One solid indication of the huge demand for physical silver is evidenced by the backwardation in prices.  Typically, the forward price of a commodity will exceed the cash price due to the expenses of insurance, warehousing and inventory financing.  When a commodity has a normal upward pricing curve to reflect a higher futures cost, the situation is termed contango.  Backwardation, the unusual case where the cost of the physical commodity is higher than future prices, is a classic indicator of surging demand.  Another indicator of the great demand for physical silver is the four year low of Comex warehouse silver.

Precious Metals Prices
Fri PM Fix Since Last Recap
Gold $1,402.50 +19.00 (+1.37%)
Silver $32.54 +0.60 (+1.88%)
Platinum $1,791.00 -45.00 (-2.45%)
Palladium $785.00 -62.00 (-7.32%

Gold also continued its upward move with a gain of $19 per ounce after an advance of $19.50 in the previous week.  To understand the wealth preservation appeal of gold, one needs only to look at the exponentially increasing level of  U.S. debt.  Ultimately, the staggering amount of sovereign debt can be serviced only through inflation and dollar debasement which is what the Federal Reserve is currently orchestrating through quantitative easing (money printing).

US NATIONAL DEBT - THE ROAD TO FINANCIAL OBLIVION

The U.S. dollar also appears to be losing its cache as the “safe haven” currency.  Despite the unprecedented turmoil in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices, the U.S. dollar has weakened over the past two weeks.  By comparison, during the financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. dollar appreciated 24% against other major currencies.

The surge in oil prices has led to concerns that the U.S. and world economies will see much lower growth as higher oil prices devastate consumer disposable income.  A weakened world economy would probably lead to lower demand for industrial metals such as platinum and palladium which both declined this week.  Platinum sold off by $45 and palladium was rocked by a $62 loss from the prior week.