March 28, 2024

Negative Opinions on Gold

With all of the positive articles on gold, one reliable way of getting attention is to publish an article forecasting an impending plunge in the price of gold. Two recently published articles caught my attention for their decidedly negative stances on gold.

I previously wrote a post exploring bullish analyst opinions on gold. I guess this post will present the flip side.

IMF Gold Dump Theory

The first article examines the opinions of a so-called “interventional analyst” who sees the price of gold plunging on December 10. He sees the initial plunge and subsequent declines bringing the price of gold 40% lower to around $455 per ounce. All of this would take place in a matter of weeks. The plunge would be caused by the IMF dumping 3,000 tonnes of gold, flooding the market and destroying prices.

Even though his current prediction seems a bit ridiculous, apparently he has previously called this year’s collapse in the Dow, the plunge in oil prices, and the current recession. Of note, his gold track record is much less spectacular. According to a quote from the article, he has been advocating shorting gold since it was $413.

Since December 10 is tomorrow, at least we won’t have to wait very long to see if his most recent prediction is correct.

Gold is for Barbarians Theory
Alternate Title: I Like Getting Attention

The second article was published on Seeking Alpha. The author wrote a previous piece that called gold a “sucker’s bet.” He stated that gold should trade below $600, predicted “a lot of sources of selling.” He also questioned gold’s historical status as a store of value (he prefers oil) and denied gold’s ability to protect against inflation. The article was well circulated, resoundingly ridiculed, and received over 100 comments.

He’s back for more in his second article. First he mentions that gold has “plunged” since his first article. Gold is really down about 10% and has been climbing back daily. The decline also corresponded with a horrific decline in world stock markets, which probably had more to do with gold’s weakness than the author’s reasons. Next, he repudiates all of the negative comments received on his prior article in three short sentences, and finally rehashes his prior arguments against gold. He slips in a quip about gold not being used as currency since the time of nomadic herders.

As unremarkable as the article was, it still attracted nearly 100 comments. I guess the moral of the story is that if you want to get the most attention, just make bold claims that are the opposite of the prevailing opinion and common sense.

Can the US Mint Handle Demand for the Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagle?

For much of the year, the United States Mint has been touting the upcoming recreation of what they have called the “nation’s most beautiful coin.” Augustus Saint Gaudens’ design for the Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagle will be recreated as a one ounce 24 karat gold coin available for sale to the public.

The Mint’s intention to recreate the coin was first announced this March, followed by an official unveiling in July, and a well publicized first striking in November. The US Mint intends to strike the coins throughout 2009 in quantities necessary to meet public demand. So far, coin collectors have responded enthusiastically to the upcoming offering. With the recent main stream attention on gold, there will likely be interest from the broader public as well. Is the United States Mint prepared to handle the potentially significant demand for the new gold coin?

This year the US Mint, as well as most other world mints, have had continuous problems procuring sufficient gold blanks to meet the incredible demand for bullion coins. The US Mint in particular has been forced to suspend sales of some gold bullion offerings and continues to distribute coins though an allocation program since they are unable to meet the full demand.

Next year the US Mint will be at odds with itself as it struggles to meet growing demand for their regular bullion coins and new demand for a potentially hot collectible coin.

To estimate how much demand the new coin might generate, we can look at the US Mint’s 2006 release of the 24 karat American Buffalo Gold coin. Similar to next year’s offering, the coin design was taken from an old collector favorite, in this case the Buffalo Nickel. The coins were offered as one ounce bullion coins and one ounce collector proof coins. Sales of the coins began in late June 2006. In just over six months, the US Mint sold approximately 337,000 bullion coins and 252,000 proof coins for a total of 589,000 ounces worth of gold. Sales of the regular 2006 American Gold Eagle bullion coins totaled only 261,000 ounces.

Even if only the collectible versions of coins are considered, this represents a 50% increase in demand for gold coins. Since the US Mint has been unable to meet the full demand for regular gold bullion coins this year, the prospects that they can handle the additional demand for a popular collectible gold coin on top of already robust gold bullion coin demand seem remote.

Another aspect to consider is that the Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagles are struck on specialized blanks. The coin will have a thickness of 4 millimeters which is more than 50% thicker than most one ounce gold bullion coins. So far the US Mint has been procuring these specialized blanks from Gold Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Western Australian Government, who operate the competing Perth Mint. Notably, the Perth Mint recently announced that they would be forced to cease taking orders for precious metals until January 2009 due to “unprecedented demand.” So, not only will the US Mint need to procure a large amount highly specialized blanks from an already tight market, they will need to procure them from a competitor struggling to meet their own demand.

Taken together these factors do not bode well for a smooth release of this “recreated materpiece.” I envision a frustrating series back orders, delays, and eventual order limitations for the new coin. The US Mint intended the Ultra High Relief Gold Coin to be “a prestigous example of the highest level of artistic excellence in American coin design.” Instead they might just end up with another gold related headache.

Analysts Opinions on Gold

Recently published commentary from analysts at Citigroup and JP Morgan both paint a bright picture for the future of gold. Citigroup specifically mentions the $2,000 level as attainable. JP Morgan recommends buying gold for the run into the holidays.

The Citigroup report runs down many factors that are well known to gold investors. Citi mentions the possibility that recent financial actions of world authorities will either result in massive inflation if the actions are successful; or further economic deterioration that leads to political instability and unrest if the actions are unsuccessful. Either scenario would have positive implications for gold. Citi also mentions the finite supply of gold in the world, and gold’s indisputable status as a monetary instrument. The full report can be found here (pdf link).

By mentioning the $2,000 price level, Citigroup has trumped Morgan Stanley’s lame recommendation that gold will reach $1,000 in three years and Merrill Lynch’s call for $1,500 gold. If you’re going to make a prediction on the price of gold, I guess you have to make it $500 higher than the last analyst…

JP Morgan’s analysts also mention a collection of well known factors pointing in gold’s favor. They see the strong dollar/weak gold link decoupling, the shrinking supply of gold discoveries, the declining pace of central bank gold sales, and the “seizure” of the gold coin and small bar market.

As a gold investor, should you be worried about analyst’s latest love affair? Analysts have a less than stellar record for timely recommendations about emerging trends. In many cases, their most bullish predictions have come towards the end of a major move and merely represent an extrapolation of the recent past for reasons already well discounted. Is this time different?

In a word, yes.

Although gold has increased roughly 300% from the lows reached seven years ago, gold is still showing a loss for the year. If this was the typical pile-on of bullish analyst calls, it would more likely be taking place amidst a sharp, upward move.

Secondly, analysts are not jumping into a hot market, they are wading into a very confusing market. A continually evolving array of factors are at play which have baffled and frustrated even long time followers of gold. On one side, there are glaringly obvious reasons why gold should be moving higher. On the other side, there are plenty of credible reasons why gold is stuck in neutral.

When this current “tug of war” in the price of gold eventually resolves itself and gold starts to move higher, analysts will likely respond by ratcheting up their predictions in tandem with the rising price of gold. Even when this starts to happen, I still wouldn’t be worried.

Wait until you hear an analyst report come out with the boldest of the bold prediction yet, “Gold to Reach $10,000 Per Ounce.” The report will likely contain countless, well considered reasons that make $10,000 gold seem not only possible, but probable. Handy charts will extrapolate recent moves to harrowing peaks. Around the same time, any arguments against gold investing will seem downright silly and “man on the street” interviews will elicit sage advice on the merits of buying gold…

That’s when you should be worried about rosy analyst predictions on gold.

Seasonal Gold Price Trends

At the beginning of November, I took a look at the seasonal price trends for gold. Back then, it seemed that November and December were historical good months for gold. This came as a relief following gold’s seasonally weakest month of October.

Gold came through big time in November rising from $730.75 to $814.50, representing a gain of $83.75 or 11.46%. This marked gold’s biggest monthly gain since September 1999 when gold rose 20.68%.

Will the trend continue? In the past ten years, gold has shown an average gain of 1.67% for the month of December, rising 6 times and falling 4 times. Today on the first day of December, gold is showing a 2% loss, dragged down with the stock markets.

If December doesn’t come through, there’s always January to look forward to. In the past ten years, the first month of the year has produced an average gain of 2.15%. Much of gains came in recent years. Two out of the past three years, gold has posted a gain of over 10% in the month of January.

US Mint 2008 Gold and Silver Dwindle, 2009 Releases Delayed

The United States Mint recently released a memo to authorized bullion purchasers regarding the remaining 2008-dated bullion coins and the upcoming 2009-dated bullion coins.

The only 2008 dated bullion coins still being sold by the US Mint are the 1 ounce American Gold Eagle and 1 ounce American Silver Eagle. Final allocations for these coins will take place December 15, 2008. All of the fractional Gold Eagles, Gold Buffaloes, and Platinum Eagles are no longer available.

Sales of 2009-dated 1 ounce Gold Eagles and 1 ounce Silver Eagles will begin on December 29, 2008. Availability will be subject to allocation. The remaining 2009-dated bullion coins will be delayed. The US Mint cites “very limited” supplies of blanks from suppliers amidst high demand.

The full US Mint memo is reproduced below:

November 24, 2008

MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE AND AMERICAN BUFFALO BULLION COIN AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS

SUBJECT: 2008 and 2009-Dated Bullion Coin Products

With the exception of the American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins, all 2008-dated bullion coins have been depleted. Weekly allocations will continue for these two products.

The final 2008 allocation for these coins will be provided on Monday, December 15, 2008.

There will be no bullion allocations during the week of December 22, 2008.

2009-dated American Eagle Gold One-Ounce and American Eagle Silver One-Ounce Bullion Coins will be made available for sale via the standard allocation process on Monday, December 29, for pricing December 30 and order pick-up on Friday, January 2, 2009.

Allocations for these products will continue until the United States Mint is able to meet demand.

The quantities of blanks that we have been able to acquire from our suppliers continue to be very limited, while demand for bullion coins remains high. As a result, it is necessary for the United States Mint to delay the launch of other bullion coins until later in 2009. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you informed as additional information becomes available.

Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint Bullion Coin Program.

Perth Mint Suspends Gold Sales

Another major Mint has succumbed to the unrelenting demand for physical precious metals. Today the Perth Mint announced that they will be forced to cease taking orders until January.

Although the Perth Mint is based in Australia, they do approximately 80% of their business outside of Australia in North America, Europe, and Asia. Demand for their products was also likely seeing a boost due to suspensions and rationing programs implemented by the US Mint.

The Perth Mint has valiantly tried to keep up with demand. At the beginning of October, they hired more staff and added a third shift to keep up with increased demand. After running at capacity production, seven days a week, 24 hours a day for the past several months, they were finally forced to suspend taking orders.

On the same day, the price of gold surged $43.10 or 5.8%, and briefly traded above the $800 level. News reports mainly attributed the gains to “return of safe-haven investment demand” and “gloomy economic forecasts.” More so, I think the physical gold market is sending strong signals to the paper market that are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.  I think huge daily gains in the price gold will start to become increasingly common as the retail level stampede into gold continues.

US Mint Makes Drastic Cuts to Collector Gold & Platinum Coin Offerings

Today the United States Mint announced some sweeping cuts to the number of products that they will offer to coin collectors. The deepest cuts take place in the US Mint’s offerings of collectible versions of gold and platinum bullion coins.

Most people know about the US Mint’s bullion coin offerings. American Eagle coins composed of gold, silver, and platinum are sold to the public through a network of authorized bullion dealers. In recent years, American Buffalo Gold coins were added to the lineup. These coins are bought and sold primarily as a means of investing in precious metals.

Since 2006, the US Mint has also offered so-called “collectible” versions of the popular bullion coins for sale directly to the public. The coins have been available in fractional denominations, four coin sets, and one ounce sizes. They are differentiated from the “non-collectible” bullion versions by carrying a “W” mint mark. The coins are also struck on specially burnished blanks and come in custom Mint packaging.  In addition, the US Mint has offered proof versions of bullion coins, which have been sold to collectors for many years.

The US Mint’s discontinued products (via Mint News Blog) will include:

  • American Buffalo Uncirculated Gold Coins – These are the collectible versions offered by the US Mint. All fractional denominations, 4 coin set, and the one ounce coin will be discontinued.
  • American Buffalo Proof Gold Coins – The fractional 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz coins and 4 coin set will be discontinued.
  • American Platinum Eagle Uncirculated Coins – These are the collectible versions offered by the US Mint. All fractional denominations, 4 coin set, and the one ounce coin will be discontinued.
  • American Platinum Eagle Proof Coins – The fractional 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz coins and 4 coin set will be discontinued.
  • American Gold Eagle Uncirculated Coins – These are the collectible versions offered by the US Mint. The fractional 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz coins and 4 coin set will be discontinued.

Why are these products being discontinued?

The US Mint would likely cite low sales figures for the offerings, but that doesn’t get to the root of the problem. Basically, the US Mint has had a disastrous time selling the products over the past few years. This was due in large part to the way the US Mint was required to set prices combined with the extreme fluctuations of precious metals prices over the past few years.

The US Mint is required to publish prices for upcoming collectible coin products in the Federal Register. This process seems to take about 30 days. As a result, every time these pseudo-bullion coins went on sale, prices were based on precious metals values from up to 30 days ago.  Any time the US Mint wanted to change prices, coin sales had to be suspended for at least 30 days while the publication process took place.

Throughout 2006 and 2007, sales of these “collectible” bullion coins were suspended numerous times as precious metals prices climbed. Premiums above the precious metal value were in constant flux, since coin prices were fixed and precious metals changed. Typically, premiums would be high at the start of sales, but then lower as precious metals prices climbed. If you timed your purchases right, you could buy the coins for around the same price as the regular bullion coins.

During 2008, the “collectible” bullion offerings were priced early in the year when precious metals prices were at their highs. As precious metals prices dropped from their peaks, coin prices remained the same, making premiums extraordinarily high. For example, the 2008-W 1 oz. Uncirculated American Gold Eagle is currently priced at $1,119.95 (see US Mint website).  Compare this to the gold value of $742. This premium is ridiculously high for a product slightly better than a bullion coin.

The only prices that were actually lowered this year were for the platinum products. Following nearly two months of suspension, platinum coins returned with prices approximately halved. Even after the reduction, prices still reflected huge premiums. The 2008-W 1 oz. Uncirculed Platinum Eagle is priced at $1,214.95 (see US Mint website). Compare this to the platinum value of $837. Another ridiculously high premium.

On the upside, this represents the end of a bad experiment in precious metals products from the US Mint. On the downside, this represents one less way for people to acquire precious metals.

Seasonal Trends for Gold Prices

It’s only two trading days into November, and gold is already posting a sizable gain for the month. I took a look at some recent historical data to try to see if gold displays any seasonal performance patterns.

Specifically, I looked at the closing price of gold for each month since 1998. Then I determined the percentage gain or loss for each month based on the difference between the closing price present month and prior month.

With the percentage change for each month, I could take a look at the average gain/loss for each month and the number of times gold was up or down for each month. While this is only a limited set of data, it does suggest some strong seasonal patterns.

Closing Monthly Gold Prices 1998 – PresentPrice of Gold
(click image for large version)

Monthly Percentage Change Gold Prices 1998 – Present
Percentage Change Gold
(click image for large version)

Based on the data examined, gold typically experiences its worst month in October, which certainly held true this year.

Gold experiences its strongest month in September. This year gold posted its second biggest monthly percentage gain in September. Other strong months based on the data include January, November, and December. So far this year, January has held true. Will November and December follow?

I usually don’t put too much faith in seasonal patterns, but I feel that they are useful to be aware of. If nothing else, this is just one more factor contributing to a growing number of catalysts which could propel the price of gold higher into the end of the year.

US Mint to Sell Final Inventory of 2008 Platinum Eagles & 1/10 oz. Gold Eagles

A few weeks back the US Mint announced that they would be taking unprecedented actions to deal with the demand for bullion coins. This included production halts for some bullion coins and limited production for others until existing blank inventories were depleted. Read the full US Mint memo with details of the actions.

Yesterday the following memo was released announcing that starting Monday, the US Mint will resume taking orders for the remaining 1/10 oz. Gold Eagles and Platinum Eagles. The memo also provides some insight into how the US Mint will ration the remaining supplies.

October 24, 2008

MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE BULLION COIN AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS

SUBJECT:       2008–Dated Bullion Coin Products

On Monday, October 27, 2008, the United States Mint will resume taking orders for 2008-dated American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Gold Bullion Coins and all sizes of American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins.

Final inventory for these bullion coins is based on current in-house blank supplies and some supplies are very limited.  The United States Mint will allocate these remaining coins among the Authorized Purchasers (APs).

The United States Mint will use a slight modification of its standard allocation process, which is as follows:

Monday morning, the inventory available for sale that week will be divided into two equal pools for each bullion coin product.

The first pool for each bullion coin product will be allocated equally to all active American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce and American Eagle Platinum APs respectively (active APs are those which have purchased American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce or American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins in the past three fiscal years).

The second pool will be allocated based on each AP’s sales performance for each bullion coin product in the last three fiscal years (e.g., an AP who purchased 30% of all American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce Coins during this time will be allocated 30% of this second pool).

Each AP will be advised via fax Monday morning (or if a government holiday, Tuesday morning) of its allocation, and will have until 3 p.m. on the following Friday to place an order for its allocated coins.

Any unordered coins remaining after 3 p.m. Friday will be put back into the pool for allocation the following Monday only until coin inventory for each product is depleted.

Included in the communication with each AP’s initial allocation on October 27 will be its allocation percentage based on sales performance.

Please note: The inventory for the American Eagle Platinum One-Tenth Ounce Bullion Coins is very limited and will be allocated to the Authorized Purchasers with the highest sales performances for the past three fiscal years for this product.

Available inventory will remain on allocation each week for the American Eagle Gold One Ounce and American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.

We will keep you informed when more information becomes available for the American Buffalo Bullion Coins.

Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint Bullion Coin Program.

Ten Reasons Gold Is Not Above $1,000

Gold reached its all time high price above $1,000 per ounce a few days after the shocking Bear Stearns bailout. In the following months gold often experienced sharp declines and has stubbornly refused to reattain the key $1,000 level despite more shocking bailouts, bank failures, and bankruptcies.

Reporters, analysts, and bloggers have cited a variety of reasons why gold has not exploded higher amidst the ongoing turmoil. Some of the reasons are more valid than others, but all are worth examining. Without further ado, the Gold and Silver Blog brings you the Top Ten Reasons Gold Is Not Above $1,000:

1.) Dollar Strength

Against nearly every world currency, the US Dollar has been strengthening. The Dollar’s path higher has accelerated in recent weeks. Gold is thought of as a weak dollar play. With the dollar strengthening, selling gold is simply the other side of the trade.

2.) Commodity Collapse

Since the summer months, commodities have been on the rapid decline. Oil has fallen by more than half from its peak price of $147. Base metals and precious metals have experienced similar if not more drastic declines. While gold has been holding up well on a relative basis, the weakness in commodities may be keeping any price appreciation at bay.

3.) Deleveraging

After years of using excessive leverage in an attempt to maximize returns, firms are rediscovering the notion of risk. Massive deleveraging is taking place as firms sell any asset available to pay down debt. As an asset class, gold is not immune to such sales.

4.) Speculative Selling

With the dollar rallying and gold breaching key technical levels, traders may be taking speculative short positions in gold, anticipating that prices will continue to move lower. This speculative selling compounds the impact of selling taking place for other reasons.

5.) Recession

Fears of a worldwide economic slowdown and deep domestic recession will have a big impact on consumer discretionary purchases. This would likely hold especially true for luxury items such as jewelry.  Since jewelry production is the largest non-investment use for gold, any slowdown would put a drag on demand.

6.) Deflation

While some fear inflation, others fear deflation. If prices decline across the board, some believe that all asset classes will be dragged down, including gold. Notably some people take the exact opposite position about gold and deflation.

7.) Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds

Some people feel that hedge funds had a hand in driving the price of gold from below $300 to above $1,000. Now that fortunes have turned for their other investments, hedge funds are being forced to unmercifully liquidate large positions in gold. Mutual funds are also being forced to liquidate positions in gold to meet redemptions.

8.) “George Costanza Trade”

On Seinfeld, George Costanza realized that every decision he ever made has been wrong. He discovered if he did the exact opposite of what his instincts told him to do, he would be successful. In relation to investing, when everyone believes that a certain trade or investment philosophy is certain to work, oftentimes with uncanny precision the exact opposite happens. This year, a growing number of people began to believe with absolute certainty that gold would move higher. While the opinion was far from universal, was the opinion widespread enough to invoke George Costanza?

9.) Government Manipulation

There is a growing camp which believes that the primary reason that gold has not moved higher in a big way is due to government manipulation. If gold prices skyrocketed, the public at large would lose faith in fiat currencies and start to panic. It would be in the government’s best interests if this did not happen.

10.) These Things Take Time

Some of the forces mentioned above are going head to head with the economic realities that should be driving the price of gold higher. Eventually we will reach a tipping point when demand for physical gold is enough to overwhelm all other factors. Once we reach that point, the price of gold will rise in leaps and bounds.