October 5, 2022

Seasonal Trends for Gold Prices

It’s only two trading days into November, and gold is already posting a sizable gain for the month. I took a look at some recent historical data to try to see if gold displays any seasonal performance patterns.

Specifically, I looked at the closing price of gold for each month since 1998. Then I determined the percentage gain or loss for each month based on the difference between the closing price present month and prior month.

With the percentage change for each month, I could take a look at the average gain/loss for each month and the number of times gold was up or down for each month. While this is only a limited set of data, it does suggest some strong seasonal patterns.

Closing Monthly Gold Prices 1998 – PresentPrice of Gold
(click image for large version)

Monthly Percentage Change Gold Prices 1998 – Present
Percentage Change Gold
(click image for large version)

Based on the data examined, gold typically experiences its worst month in October, which certainly held true this year.

Gold experiences its strongest month in September. This year gold posted its second biggest monthly percentage gain in September. Other strong months based on the data include January, November, and December. So far this year, January has held true. Will November and December follow?

I usually don’t put too much faith in seasonal patterns, but I feel that they are useful to be aware of. If nothing else, this is just one more factor contributing to a growing number of catalysts which could propel the price of gold higher into the end of the year.

Comments

  1. Good post and great charts. Thanks for assembling them. I agree with you that one shouldn’t put a lot of faith in seasonal patterns for gold commodities similar (like silver). But it is helpful in considering buying and selling decisions. There are many factors to the rise and fall of the prices and seasonal is a fraction of that equation.

  2. Very useful message

Trackbacks

  1. […] there seasonal trends for the price of gold? Based on data for the last ten years, gold tends to perform well in November and […]

  2. […] the beginning of November, I took a look at the seasonal price trends for gold. Back then, it seemed that November and December were historical good months for gold. This came as […]

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